Bachelor of Science in Truth Studies

I recall being about 7 years old and looking at the globe. I could see that South America fit right up next to Africa almost perfectly. I really wanted to understand why…

Later as a freshman in college in 1978, I enrolled in a geology class. But curiously, our textbook, published in 1976, said little about one of the most important geological theories of our day: Plate tectonics. In of the 350 pages only one half a page outlined the theory. Modern geology texts give the “theory” at least a chapter (35 pages) and more. Why the difference? What happened? Well, two central critics (from Cambridge and Yale) opposed the theory, keeping it out of textbooks for over 60 years. Their motives likely involved fear of the new paradigm, or an overturning of their own research.

But really, is there a difference between the process of acceptance for plate tectonics, Watergate and gold manipulation? And really, is there a difference between a geology professor, Bob Woodward, and Bill Murphy. And who gets to determine whether you are a respected expert or a tin-foil hatted conspiracy theorist? I think the answer to that question is scandalous. Let’s take a closer look.

Conspiracy theorist? I don’t think so…

The good etymologists at OED help us to know ourselves: A conspiracy theory is 1) an explanatory proposition that 2) accuses two or more persons, a group, or an organization of having caused or covered up, 3) through secret planning and deliberate action, 4) an illegal or harmful event or situation. I find this definition interesting because it aptly describes an historian, economist, or political scientist who proposes, in an academic journal, a theory that explains how a group or organization might cause or cover up, through secret planning and deliberate action, an illegal or harmful event or situation. We professors submit articles like this all the time. Isn’t that worth studying? Frankly, the term is a propaganda meme used to discredit anyone, anywhere, in quick blunt fashion.  Perhaps the only difference between an historian and my friend who researches the Kennedy event is that the historian has to deal with bored freshmen and my friend has to look out for black SUVs.

Research methods for hard sciences, soft sciences and humanities are slightly different, with the highest levels of statistical rigor reserved for the hard sciences—people who build airplanes, design food additives and our pharmaceuticals and other such life threatening technologies. Social scientists, like sociologists and psychologists explain what makes us tick using empirical research and statistical tests. Humanists explain what makes us tick using qualitative research and building probable arguments. What all three areas have in common is that nobody finds absolute truth! All fields of knowledge simply make probable arguments about what is true—with greater and lesser degrees of probability (Stats 101). 95% certainty will get you published in most fields.

A theory I published about Hillary in a political journal is probably true—the reviewers agreed with me. The article has even been republished elsewhere. Arguments Pavlov made about conditioning are probably true, though he could assign a certainty value to his argument based on a statistical test. Bernoulli’s principle has an even greater degree of probability, indeed we put it to the test each time we get on a plane.

When I began paying attention to precious metals at age 50, I could see that something was wrong. I really wanted to understand why…

Bill Murphy and others have set forth a thesis that is probably true. So why is Murphy’s thesis about gold manipulation ridiculed and rejected by the mainstream? Has he deviated from the norms of scientific inquiry? Well, I don’t think so. He was educated in an Ivy League school where empirical methods molded his mind in every class. How could he approach any problem except with the methods he has been taught?

Is there not a historical record of gold manipulation, admitted in official government documents, by Fed chairs, recently released to the public? The literature review for this thesis is solid. Has Murphy not provided a “story” that explains why manipulation occurs? Yes he has. Has he not demonstrated the methods of manipulation? Has he not provided evidence that shows the manipulation in progress? And now, an example of manipulation by Barclays has been confessed and confirmed, using precisely the “mini puke” methods Murphy and others have described.

Motivation of critics

I can think of three reasons that critics reject the manipulation thesis (or any other “conspiracy” thesis for that matter). First, the critic has something to fear. I have discussed the danger of bail-ins and financial collapse with my parents. Today they are well off. After a collapse, most of their paper wealth will evaporate. But dad, and my step-mother, reject any evidence that upsets their world. I suspect they just don’t want to consider any other life than they have now. They simply cannot emotionally face living in another depression, like they grew up in.

Second, the critic has something to lose. Like the scientist whose program of research will be overturned by a new theory, a critic of gold manipulation may be in a business that depends on trust. Perhaps a broker who depends on clients like me paying commissions as we trade? Perhaps the fine people at Comex want traders to trade in their free, fundamental driven markets. I can see why these would scoff at Murphy without even examining the evidence.

Third, the critic has something to hide. A mercenary PR strategist might be paid to oppose a theory by somebody who wants the theory silenced. They can get steeped in cognitive dissonance working for a good paycheck—if they have a conscience. Like the PR team for the tobacco industry that suppressed research about the effects of nicotine, even like Hillary Clinton who vigorously defended Bill after the Monica scandal broke, before the “smoking dress” was found, the critic will assert their respectability and use tactics even Saruman would applaud.

How do they oppose good theories? My own academic research agenda has been thwarted by one particular reviewer who disagreed with the thesis of my first book. His scathing review sank my publication in 2003. He pointed out a few legitimate weaknesses in my case but asserted far worse things which he supported only with an academic diatribe filled with flowery language. Even though the editor wanted to publish, that one bad review made it impossible to get the manuscript past the “committee” that made final decisions. A few years later I was published by an academic press with no hindrances at all. Having unbiased reviewers made all the difference.

I have noted that critics of a good theory use some typical tactics.

  • A bald claim of “I don’t believe it.”
  • “You-can’t-prove-it” therefore it is wrong
  • Citing well known data, but with an indirect connection to the issue
  • Exaggeration of contrary reasons and evidence
  • Minimization of reasons and evidence.
  • Refocusing on evidence that doesn’t exist, but ought to.

What the critic’s argument ultimately boils down to is an attempt to hold the theorists to standards of “absolute proof” with 100% certainty. Since no new theory can meet these standards the critic then accentuates the 1% of doubt, augmenting and hyperbolizing a very weak anti-thesis, frustrating the researcher’s efforts. Often this critic will insert emotional adjectives and adverbs, metaphors, and other creative language to exaggerate and impress. One recent critical blogger used several emotion-laden phrases … <delete>

Note to self: Oh, I better not go there or I’ll just stir up trouble…

In general, exaggerated doubt pervades the criticism, evident in grammar and word selection. Any contrary arguments that may be legitimate are greatly exaggerated and a false dichotomy of this or that is often presented as the difference between us and them, with the critic using objective language to assert their own position, and employing emotion-laden language adorned with clever phrasing to reject the theory, often without even examining it.

Gaining legitimacy

Putting forth a reasonable theory about the secret coordination of efforts by individuals and organizations to achieve illegitimate gains is not difficult. One simply must follow general methods we teach in our colleges.  First, explain the problem that prompts the research. Describe the anomalies that all can see and discuss the need to understand why these things are happening. Second, you explain, as simply as possible a “theory” that accounts for the evidence. Third, you dig in and see what others have found already, looking at the history of the issue, evaluating and judging their evidence and theories that have come before you. Fourth you look at current evidence which further supports the theory, evaluating it in an honest, unbiased (as possible) manner. Fifth, you examine the counter evidence and discuss reasons or theories that lay weight on the other side of the scale, evaluating he strength and legitimacy of this evidence. Lastly, evaluate the strength of your argument? How certain are you of the verity of the theory? I hold that most published works that outline the more reasonable theories floating around out there meet these standards.

Burden of proof

At this point, the burden of proof is incumbent upon those critics who deny gold manipulation, who deny that excessive debt is a problem for Keynsian economies, who deny that the IMF is not planning a world reserve currency, who deny that China, Russia, and most of Asia, the Mid-east and the other BRIIICS countries are not preparing for the collapse of the dollar, who deny that a group of Western elites have not been shaping the world economies to benefit themselves. Rational, well supported theories have been posited that provide mountains of evidence to back their explanations. What say ye?

For the critic to simply say at this point, “I don’t believe it," "this one reason refutes it," "that is crazy," or simply "prove it,”--the critic who uses any of those tactics only exposes their fears, suggests financial interests, or points to a deeper, more sinister, motive. Before we can take you seriously again, we need to read your anti-thesis that provides a strong, well-researched argument that gold trades freely, that the fundamentals of the metals market, the supply chain, and investor demand can reasonably account for all the strange and questionable movements in the price of the metal. You need to reasonably refute the published statements of high-level officials who openly, in writing, admitted to controlling this market.

A real thinker says, “Hmmm…that is interesting. Let’s explore it more deeply. Then we critique the idea and see if it stands on its own two feet, then we publish, then we critique more, then it goes in the textbooks. Publication is granted to a thesis that has merit. Some issues need to be debated, some issues need to be investigated, and silencing a thesis does nobody any good.

I call B.S. on these critics due to their inability to conform to the critical thinking to which they pay such adoring lip-service, yet fail to practice on their news articles and blogs. In Plato’s famous work titled The Gorgias, two guests at a dinner party were disputing with Socarates about the nature of dialectic & rhetorical inquiry. Socrates was arguing a particular point when his interlocutor, Polus, began laughing. Socrates did not put up with shit like that: “Do you laugh, Polus? Well, this is a new kind of refutation-when any one says anything, instead of refuting him to laugh at him.” The tactics of the uninformed critic have been well-understood for thousands of years. Also the respectable methods of the serious mind have also been well-understood.

I just sat through another graduation ceremony and again reflected on the nature of education. When our students have demonstrated they understand how to think, and also have a foundation of knowledge, we grant them a degree. The Sensei can grant the higher level belt to the disciple. The journeyman recognizes the knowledge and skill in the apprentice and grants equal status. I and others here are qualified to grant to you, dear reader, the Bachelor of Arts degree in Truth Studies as you learn, reason, evaluate, judge, theorize, and teach others what you have learned, seeking a stronger community and prosperity for all. Thus, if you have completed your program of study, I confer upon you the degree of Bachelor of Arts in Truth Studies!

Now go change the world.

72 Comments

metalsbyamile's picture

oh boy here is a topic

Great timing as well. FIRST time i have seen this discussed in an open forum in this manner.

Bill Murphy and others have set forth a thesis that is probably true. So why is Murphy’s thesis about gold manipulation ridiculed and rejected by the mainstream? Has he deviated from the norms of scientific inquiry? Well, I don’t think so. He was educated in an Ivy League school where empirical methods molded his mind in every class. How could he approach any problem except with the methods he has been taught?

As a subscriber to LeMetropole Cafe(do not beat me up CPE,haha), having conversed with Bill on multiple occasions, it is fairly obvious he has a handle on the situation.

A real thinker says, “Hmmm…that is interesting. Let’s explore it more deeply. Then we critique the idea and see if it stands on its own two feet, then we publish, then we critique more, then it goes in the textbooks. Publication is granted to a thesis that has merit. Some issues need to be debated, some issues need to be investigated, and silencing a thesis does nobody any good.

There are a few at this site that should practice exactly that. They may be better off mentally and  financially

Nana's picture

Great Post Dr Jerome

Now if the people would only learn the common law and go forth.

This will get you started if you are interested:

Karl Lentz, episode 187 and 188. There are more too....

http://www.talkshoe.com/talkshoe/web/talkCast.jsp?masterId=39904&pageNumber=5&pageSize=15

treefrog's picture

thurd!

therd?

Magpie's picture

I just go my fourth degree! Thanks Dr. J.

Where else on the web can you get a top-notch lecture from a college prof for free?

edit:

They never stop:

http://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2014/05/22/introducing-subprime-business-lending-loans-with-125-interest-rates-are-being-securitized-and-sold-to-investors/

Bollocks's picture

Frifthk

cheeky

Mudsharkbytes's picture

Seek…

…sixth.

success.

As I read this I kept thinking of…

…building seven. 

The only question I have with this excellent article is the impossibility of shifting the burden of proof to the naysayers. Logic 101 says you cannot prove a negative hypothesis.   You're tasking them with the impossible. 

Occasnltrvlr's picture

Elaboration On Yuan Convertability in Shanghai FTZ

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2014-05/27/content_17543134.htm

(Thanks for the heads-up on this development, cpnscarlet.)

Bollocks's picture

Nasty and unpleasant for YOU, mr blair

UKIP 'not the answer' to 21st Century issues says Blair

Tony Blair

UKIP has "no solutions to the problems of the 21st Century", former Prime Minister Tony Blair has said.

The Labour politician said the EU needed to "listen and lead" in response to the outcome of elections, which saw a rise in support for anti-EU parties, and stop doing "irritating" things.

Mr Blair said it must also "confront and expose" parties like UKIP.

"You look underneath that UKIP facade and you see something pretty nasty and unpleasant," he told BBC Radio 4.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27585260

tyberious's picture

This is their plan for US

Government Plan Would Transform Israel Into The World’s First Cashless Society

by Michael Snyder, End of the American Dream:

Israeli-Coins-300x300.png

Will Israel be the first cashless society on the entire planet?  A committee chaired by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s chief of staff has come up with a three phase plan to “all but do away with cash transactions in Israel”.  Individuals and businesses would still be permitted to conduct cash transactions in small amounts (at least initially), but the eventual goal is to force Israeli citizens to conduct as much business as possible using electronic forms of payment.  In fact, it has been reported that Israeli officials believe that “cash is bad” because it fuels the underground economy and allows people to avoid paying taxes.  It is hoped that requiring most transactions to be conducted in cash will reduce crime and help balance the national budget.  And once 98 or 99 percent of all transactions are cashless, it will not be difficult for the Israeli government (or any other government) to go the rest of the way and ban cash transactions altogether.  But is a cashless society actually desirable?  This is a question that people all over the world will have to start asking as governments increasingly restrict the use of cash.

Read More @ EndoftheAmericanDream.com

Dr Jerome's picture

cannot prove negative hypothesis

But one could present a theory of how normal fundamentals can account for 95% of the market action that we watch each day.

I think the sharpest critic would grant that the London gold pool controlled the price in the past, and that the Barclays trader was micro-manipulating. I would be satisfied if the critics would simply dispense with the memes, hyperbole, and other sophistic strategies to discredit, and would instead engage the discussion to reach a consensus on the degree of manipulation occurring today.

I live in a hopeful, imaginary world sometimes.

Usually the naysayers finally go quietly back home and rethink their lives. Few people argue for a flat world these days. It takes a counter-theory though to keep the debate going.

Not to digress on this topic, but... the creationists developed at least one very solid theory which argued that macro-evolution is impossible--Michael Behe, in Darwin's Black Box, posited a counter theory of "irreducible complexity" arguing that living organisms need to reach a certain plateau of chemical and mechanical complexity in order to live. A simpler version of certain biological mechanisms fails to achieve the necessary level of function for sustained life. His best example was the 50-some steps involved in blood clotting. If one step in the process is not there, you bleed out from a minor scratch.

All the usual tactics have been tossed at Behe.

Bollocks's picture

Dr J

"I recall being about 7 years old and looking at the globe. I could see that South America fit right up next to Africa almost perfectly. I really wanted to understand why…"

It was the same for me too, and at about the same age. Then I saw a USA-produced map of the world and noticed that Africa was far smaller and didn't fit.

That was my first introduction to racism.

metalsbyamile's picture

Just wanted to say

good bye and good luck to all. I had an exchange behind the pay wall, one of many times over the last few months, that have discouraged me form continuing here.

It would seem my views and opinions are not welcome.

All the best and God bless those that deserve it.

( I have a monthly sub, automatic from a cc, any one . how do i cancel it, do i contact TFMR direct?) never mind, thanks all. canceled.

Dr Jerome's picture

sorry to see you leave

Metalsbyamile,

John Stuart Mill taught that all views are necessary if we are to have any chance at discovering all the truth.  

Not everyone grasps this concept. Perhaps you'll return later?

Bollocks,

Isn't Africa far larger than any other continent, distorted to the small side on flat maps, but actually dwarfing Europe and Russia-Asia. No wonder the Chinese are moving in.

lakedweller2's picture

All Views Are Welcome

The concern is always the paid shill...but, for the most part, we are all the same people holding different views about the same issue.  I prefer not to only hear myself.  Let us all weigh and sort the thoughts in our own fashion. As long as it doesn't get personal, we all gain from the thoughts of others.

Almost Forgot:  Great article Dr J....  Breath of Fresh Air.

Urban Roman's picture

@metals,

Click on 'Account' at the top.

On the Account page, a little ways down, is a row of gray tabs. 'History', 'Orders', etc. Click on 'Subscription'. There should be a hotlink on your subscription line ...

[edit] nevermind, apparently you found it.

Good luck in your travels.

And, Turdites: there is a case for deflation. And it looks like deflation is what we have. Not that the kleptocrats will stop awarding money to themselves, but the cosmic amounts of notional credit in the 'shadow banking system' are beginning to unravel, and this destruction of money is quite deflationary. It will make any currency you can stuff in your mattress more valuable, believe it or not!

So, keep some powder dry, y'all!

metalsbyamile's picture

Thanks Dr J

As you are aware i subscribe to a cyclical theory, that in the short term is bearish anything gold and silver.

The sad part is the ones chasing me away for those bearish views are on the cusp of me screaming bullish comments to high heaven.

They will miss that and i'm truly sad . Too think you might help some one is the ultimate joy in my life at least.If one thought i was negative now, in contrast they will think i'm a shill for the metals and miners in the near future.

Thanks for all the thoughtful posts and well written essays. They have been tremendous.

Marchas45's picture

Dont Let It Get To You

Metalsbyamile I have read your posts and I wasn't offended in the least of what you wrote and you never changed my way of thinking on when or where to buy my beloved Silver.

People tend to go overboard and attack when it's not called for especially on a day of downward motion in the PM's.

Rethink your decision as there are many that do care about you and what you and they are striving for. Keep Stacking

SS121's picture

Gold Market Manipulation

Dr. J,

Whether or not the gold market is manipulated assumes that an actual gold market even exists, and assumes that the unverifiable reports and data upon which the "Manipulated" case is made are accurate and legitimate.

Before Bernie Madoff confessed on Dec 11th 2008, it was widely discussed that he was front-running his commercial clients to earn profits for his private investors... that he was "manipulating" things.  But was he?  No.  But then, neither was he legitimate.  

He was a total fraud who was manufacturing all external reports to create the perception that all unseen actions were real and legitimate.

Back to GMM- the media actually has now adopted the GMM narrative.  Because it's true or because they have certain motives for doing so?

Doc, the following slide, and theory....

The theory being that their promotion of either the Not Manipulated or Manipulated position has the effect of keeping the public's perception of the "gold market" within the Red Box, thereby preventing any consideration as to the legitimacy of the gold market.  A gold market that-

  • provides NO visibility of it's inner workings
  • directly controls the price of gold via the gold chart
  • perpetuates the existence of the World Fiat Currency System (much more motivating for the WFCS owners than making a few bucks trading.  They can 'derive' cash, this is about control)

But anyway... Question:  How would the Truth Studies process go about first considering the legitimacy or 'fake'ness of the entity known as "the gold market"?

metalsbyamile's picture

Marchas45

That is one of the most heart felt  posts i have read. Thank you very much.

Maybe it is the down draft that is causing despair and angst.

My sub is paid , although canceled, i see it is not pro rata. I have until the 16th of June to torment the regulars.laugh(totally tongue in cheeky)

Deaglán's picture

Hollande

As much as I hate far right politics, I find it interesting that the French leader suddenly wants less power to be given to Europe. He doesn´t like how his people voted in the Euro elections so now wants to change things.

French President Francois Hollande has called for the European Union to change focus and reduce its role. It follows significant gains by Euroskeptic and far-right parties in the European elections.

http://www.dw.de/hollande-calls-for-eu-to-change-tack-after-far-right-election-success/a-17664449

Great piece Dr. J, thanks.

I got a 50 cent per hour pay rise today. I´m waiting for Bill Gross to call me any minute now.

bullion only's picture

will Nenner be right this time? Let's keep tabs on this.

So, where is Nenner telling people to put their money for the next six years?  Nenner says, “You know I am Dutch.  I always say ‘how do I not lose money.’  Americans want to know how to make money.  So, in a deflationary period, it is very difficult to make money. . . . We are totally out of the stock market, and we are getting ready to buy back gold.  We got out of the gold market at $1,900 (per ounce) and our major cycle low is in July.  The risk on the downside is not more than $100 (per ounce), but we are still holding off and we think the bull market (in gold) will resume.  Nenner thinks the bottom in gold is close and contends, “We can still go to $1,150 (per ounce).  If you are afraid, you can buy physical gold because a lot of people are afraid of the financial system. . . . I am loading up on very long term calls on GLD.  So, it doesn’t matter if I am a couple of weeks off and I just wait.”  Nenner goes on to predict, “I think that because of the monetary situation, that gold will outperform silver.”  Where does Nenner think the gold price is going between now and 2020? Nenner predicts, “Our first target is $2,100 (per ounce), then $2,500; and if it breaks that, gold could go parabolic.” 

On the U.S. dollar, Nenner predicts, “Timing is our business, and we’ve always said the dollar is going to collapse in end of 2014.  There are different reasons for this.  The government has loans outstanding that are very short term.  If interest rates only go up a half a percent, they are already in trouble.  Also, the United States doesn’t have the power to force a lot (of Treasury bonds) on other countries because the United States has decided not to be a power anymore.  So, of course, the dollar goes with it.  Oil is going to be much higher, and inflation is going to start moving its tail.  This is the start of inflation.  Five years from now, you will see inflation started in 2014.  It’s not that everything happens in 2014, it’s just the beginning.” 

On war, Nenner predicts, “I still do cycles of war, and I have been predicting a big war is in the making in 2013.  And, when they ask me does it start with a bang, I say no, it starts slowly without us noticing.  In ten years, you will look back and see it started in 2013. . . . I still think the big war will come from the Middle East.”  

Thw rest is on Marketwatchusa

Bollocks's picture

Dr J

Indeed, it seems Africa is quite a bit larger than even shown on world maps today:

How big is Africa? You can see from this map created by Kai Krause, that Africa is large. If you combine the USA, China, India, Europe and Japan - they all fit into the continent of Africa. Click on the map to see it in detail. The US can fit comfortably no less than three times. The UK can fit into Africa over 120 times. Even those of us who were educated in Africa may be surprised at these statistics. That's because the geography books at school tend to originate from Europe or the US, and show a proportionally skewed perspective of the world.

http://0.tqn.com/d/goafrica/1/0/b/Q/true-size-of-africa.jpg

http://goafrica.about.com/od/africatraveltips/ig/Maps-of-Africa/Map-of-Africa-Showing-True-Size.htm
 

Dr Jerome's picture

ss121

Your ponderings on this topic have piqued my interest of late.

How do you measure without a trusty ruler? How do you evaluate and analyze falsified data? and what conclusions can you come to that will be worthy? This is the domain of the great philosophers who argue out and establish our methods of truth seeking.  A PhD and active research program in philosophy is probably required. Hans Gadamer published a stout book called Truth and Method which digs into such issues. I have read sections, but it makes my head spin if I read too much in one sitting. 

I am amazed the confidence of chartists. Even with un-manipulated, real-data markets, their charts are always descriptive and accurately displaying what has already happened. At some level they report on the psychology of the traders. Trading by them increases your chance at success, but fundamental events can cause them to turn on a dime. Just because we have a downward sloping silver chart doesn't mean it will go to zero and lower. There is a bottom. The day AG goes below zero and they pay me to take silver off their dirty hands, I'll be in line for my share. And price will rise again. Do you know which day? I don't, but I won't be caught without metal this time around, like I was in 1982. And I won't skip a stacking opportunity again if AG hits $4 like I did some years ago.

When the data is corrupted or falsified, and that is all analysts have to work with, there is no getting at truth. By the time we have trustworthy data on metals markets, it will be too late--no stock at the LCS, failure of the corrupt exchanges, and anybody's guess as to what gold is actually worth. I'll probably sit tight with my tiny stack until some acceptable measure of value is established. 

Your thesis that all market data is "constructed" is worthy of serious debate.

How does one answer the question: "Is the gold market faked?" I am not sure the evidence available to us can get any leverage on that question. In a philosophical sense, as long as the dollar's value is arbitrary (as are the rest of the world currencies) then the markets are fake. Gold is the ruler.

But the Chinese are sure taking advantage of this Western folly, fake markets or not, they are taking delivery at the stated price. I am now curious to see if Austria gets to audit their gold, and if a refusal stirs up the rest of the world.

I'm getting in over my head, so I'll shut up now.

lakedweller2's picture

Africa

I thought Texas was bigger.  Yeah...I know:  That's what she said.

ancientmoney's picture

Dr. J regarding exploring theories . . .

As I see it, the major impediment to discussion amongst the people is a lack of the "fourth estate."

The major media, while on the decline (thank God), still holds considerable sway.  While newspaper readership is way, way down (likely only quite old people without computers still buy it), I think many people still watch TV for their "news intake."

As we know, the MSM is a completely owned bullhorn for the status quo of the power-elite.  The same people who own the banks and the entities that make up the military/industrial complex also own the media.

They just ignore or shout down any discussion of alternative theory.  You see and hear only what they allow you to see and hear.

Luckily, the "fifth estate" (this site and many bloggers who write about the stuff we believe to be true) now exists, and is where I glean my news from.  Of course, there is a lot of bad info on the internet, so one must be careful not to go over the edge to wild-eyed crazy, but nowadays, just where is that line?

TreeTop Dweller's picture

Precious Metals 101 with One Obvious Assumption

Bill Holter has a very easy to read explanation of the Precious Metals if you start out with the one "assumption" that the US is broke.

Appropriate reading for a day like today...

http://blog.milesfranklin.com/precious-metals-101-with-one-obvious-assumption

snip

I want to connect the dots in this piece with the obvious.  If you know that the government is broke then you know that the currency that they issue is also broke or worth “less.”  You can also divine that if the government is broke then their bonds are also, these bonds are core foundational capital to the banking system.  Knowing this, you can then make the leap that there is not only a problem with the currency itself but also a problem with where it is you are keeping this “money.”

With the above paragraph in mind, it follows that you should do two things  A. get a “better” money and B. keep it in a safer place.  I would also like to address “timing.”  Everyone knows that you want to buy low and sell high but I am going to tell you that this will not work with the precious metals, the “selling” part at least.  If you know that the issuer of a currency is broke, why would you ever “sell” your precious metals at a “profit” to receive more of the broke currency that you dumped in the first place?  If you know what the end game boils down to, meaning that the currency of the broke entity will eventually go to zero or be converted to another currency at a lower value, why would you ever want to play that game?  If you sell your precious metals for dollars (more of them at a “profit” so to speak), are you not reentering “the game” that you already know will end badly?  The idea of purchasing precious metals in the first place is to leave the game, selling an ounce of gold for $1 million very well may be ridiculously cheap and far less than a week’s worth of labor after a hyperinflation.  This is not grandstanding as we have no idea how much more “money” will be printed and we certainly do not know how much (if any) gold is left in Ft. Knox or the other depositories since there has been no audit of our gold since the 1950′s.

To wrap this up, assuming that you understand that the U.S. government is broke then why stay in a game where you know how it ends?  Every government since the beginning of time that overspent “paid” for this overspending by first selling their gold and then overprinting their money.  This combination has always and without exception led to their currency loosing value “slowly at first and then all of a sudden” to the point of having no value at all.  This is the current situation of the U.S. dollar with one nasty caveat; the dollar is the foundation for much of what the world calls “wealth.”  Ask yourself what this “wealth” is really worth if it all derives value from a currency that is issued by a bankrupt entity?

I know that this realism is not pleasant to read…but it is real and it is true.  History has shown us that the absolute best investment to own when a country goes broke is gold, only this time it will not just be one country it is system wide.  The entire global financial system relies on the dollar for “value” as central banks use dollars as the primary reserve.  Is this “sound finance?”

I want to connect the dots in this piece with the obvious.  If you know that the government is broke then you know that the currency that they issue is also broke or worth “less.”  You can also divine that if the government is broke then their bonds are also, these bonds are core foundational capital to the banking system.  Knowing this, you can then make the leap that there is not only a problem with the currency itself but also a problem with where it is you are keeping this “money.”

With the above paragraph in mind, it follows that you should do two things  A. get a “better” money and B. keep it in a safer place.  I would also like to address “timing.”  Everyone knows that you want to buy low and sell high but I am going to tell you that this will not work with the precious metals, the “selling” part at least.  If you know that the issuer of a currency is broke, why would you ever “sell” your precious metals at a “profit” to receive more of the broke currency that you dumped in the first place?  If you know what the end game boils down to, meaning that the currency of the broke entity will eventually go to zero or be converted to another currency at a lower value, why would you ever want to play that game?  If you sell your precious metals for dollars (more of them at a “profit” so to speak), are you not reentering “the game” that you already know will end badly?  The idea of purchasing precious metals in the first place is to leave the game, selling an ounce of gold for $1 million very well may be ridiculously cheap and far less than a week’s worth of labor after a hyperinflation.  This is not grandstanding as we have no idea how much more “money” will be printed and we certainly do not know how much (if any) gold is left in Ft. Knox or the other depositories since there has been no audit of our gold since the 1950′s.

To wrap this up, assuming that you understand that the U.S. government is broke then why stay in a game where you know how it ends?  Every government since the beginning of time that overspent “paid” for this overspending by first selling their gold and then overprinting their money.  This combination has always and without exception led to their currency loosing value “slowly at first and then all of a sudden” to the point of having no value at all.  This is the current situation of the U.S. dollar with one nasty caveat; the dollar is the foundation for much of what the world calls “wealth.”  Ask yourself what this “wealth” is really worth if it all derives value from a currency that is issued by a bankrupt entity?

I know that this realism is not pleasant to read…but it is real and it is true.  History has shown us that the absolute best investment to own when a country goes broke is gold, only this time it will not just be one country it is system wide.  The entire global financial system relies on the dollar for “value” as central banks use dollars as the primary reserve.  Is this “sound finance?”

JY896's picture

Outstanding post, Dr. J

Had more than my fair share of run-ins with 'peer' reviewers who pose these forms of attack/critique as opportunities to wield their own influence for the sake of wielding it. Not necessarily b/c of any vested interest in the topic one way or the other, but simply to assert their 'right' to keep people with new/different ideas in their place.

Too much originality/creativity in the scholarly realm might force THEM to review their research methods, to come up with new ideas (instead of endlessly circular-citing existing literature, mostly their own). Can't have that...

metalsbyamile's picture

About those longs

About to get some relief with the latest pod Craig has up.

Testy testy are some of the stalwarts of the site. My thinking was they are long the phyz, yet they show true signs of despair today. Why would that be? Could it be they are long alright- but paper long. So they are getting creamed.

Craig has warned against paper long positions. Is not this site about phyz. Why the hell would you be long paper gold at this time.

By george, i think i have got it

Mr. Fix's picture

Dr. Jerome, that was an amazing post:

One of the topics that I find most interesting in my 11th grade daughter's (Little Fix) curriculum, is a online course called “myth busting”.
Topics are discussed and debated, and terms like “true science” as opposed to “pseudoscience” are given a good hard look at. We have come to the conclusion that when there is an opposing side of an argument, all sides tried to prop up their side as “science”, while the opposing side it's is dismissed as "pseudoscience”.
She is in the process of putting together a final presentation on Eastern medicine versus Western medicine, which is a good example of both sides calling the other unscientific. in my own personal research over the past few years, I have found that the “official version” simply does not hold up to close scrutiny. This is true for a surprising amount of the engineering sciences, archaeology, astrophysics, Economic theories, quantum physics, particle physics, it seems like history is being rewritten daily, to support the current “agenda”, and even mainstream religion must be accepted on sheer faith, because it cannot be supported by the facts.

I will have my daughter read your article, because it's exactly the kind of work she has been doing herself.
it's also an excellent cornerstone for critical thinking skills.
Thanks again.

JustDale's picture

@ Metalsbyamile...

I 'hat-tipped' Marchas45, and I 2nd those remarks.  Having received my 1st Degree this very day (Thank you, Dr J), @ age 65, I am under-educated.  My progress depends on your participation.  Please Stay.

TT

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