Another Timely Discussion

My friend, Dan, sent me this video yesterday. It's a timely discussion of several items we regularly cover here at TFMR so I thought I should post it.

Once again, this is Dan Ameduri speaking with Marin Katusa of Casey Research. In this latest video, they discuss:

  • Current contrarian investment ideas
  • Some of the equities they've discussed in previous presentations
  • Default risk and other issues with China
  • Potential safe haven and "bug out" locations

I think you'll find this interesting so please give it a listen.

TF

 

43 Comments

cliff 567's picture

1st

it was just sitting there.

Mr. Fix's picture

Thurd!

That's what I need! (investment ideas).

But so far, investing in myself just never seems to get old.wink

Turd Ferguson's picture

More on MalAir370

MODERATOR

Dr. Janda's friend, Mr. Garrow, seems quite certain that he knows where it is...(in the first 15 minutes of this podcast)

http://www.davejanda.com/guests/dr-jim-garrow/sunday-april-27-2014

ArtL's picture

top 5!

I plead the 5th

silver2013's picture

Same old. Same old. Gold and

Same old. Same old. Gold and silver to the moon. Dollar to the toilet....yet dow keeps going up up up. Rules does not matter. If they want gold and silver ranged and dow up they could do it...its proven.

sierra skier's picture

Good morning.

Good morning. Regarding relocation I believe we are best off staying put in the US because we speak the language, are accepted as residents and it is home. Moving to a foreign country just doesn't ring true to me due to their firearms laws for one and also not being a native would possibly put me on their 'keep an eye on them' list. Being a foreigner would also have the locals looking at your 'wealth' with envious eyes.

Acceptance would be one of the worries of being in a foreign place during a major upheaval of economies.

the_circle's picture

FOFOA on paper gold pricing

Why More Buying means Lower Prices! (in paper markets)

In the leveraged market of paper gold, the more buyers that show up, the lower the price will go. Here is how it works. Let us say that we want to play on the front lines of gold price discovery; the futures market. We believe fundamentally that the price of gold must rise, so we become buyers of future gold. But let's say that we only have $5,000 to play with. So we pay our $5,000 margin to gain control of a $100,000 contract for 100 ounces of gold. If gold goes up $50/ounce while we hold this contract for future delivery, we will make $50 x our 100 ounces, or $5,000. A $50 rise in gold only represents a 5% increase, but our profit was 100%! We doubled our $5,000 turning it into $10,000!

Here's the problem. We don't have enough money to pay $95,000 more for the physical gold. And the bullion banks KNOW this. They know that there is a 90% probability that we will not take delivery. So when we placed our bid for 100 ounces of gold, they simply issued a brand new paper contract, not backed by real gold! This is pure paper gold inflation. And the more contracts there are, the lower the value of each contract. The same way supplying more dollars makes the value of each dollar fall. It really is the same thing!

http://fofoa.blogspot.co.uk/2009/08/call-of-century.html

California Lawyer's picture

TF - MalAir370

At risk of someone accusing me of being in a cult, er . . .

I mean of someone accusing me of fomenting yet another crackpot conspiracy theory, I strongly believe that something is amiss with the official story behind the supposed disappearance of that flight.

Garrow's explanation, while fantastic, is certainly logically just as likely as the other theories, no matter how far fetched or believable they may seem.

For example, I remember when Benghazi first happened.  The official story was, in my most humble opinion, the biggest load of horseshit I have ever seen on television in my life.  The fact that the dumb bimbo was paraded out to tell some lame story proved to me that exactly what she was saying was a total lie.  So, because the real story was different than what the talking head was espousing, I went internet surfing.

I stumbled across some websites that said the Benghazi fiasco was a black ops mission gone awry, which if linked to the White House would jeopardize Obummer's reelection.  THAT RIGHT THERE seemed a much more plausible explanation than that complete load of horseshit being sold to us by those crooks in the oval office.

So, here we are, years later, and what do we see?

Politicians salivating over exposing Obummer and his minions to embarassment for sure, perhaps worse. 

As we now know, beyond doubt, the official story was completely untrue.

So, now back to the Flight 370 story.  What have we heard?

(1) Pilot deliberately tried to, and did, kill all aboard by crashing.

(2) Plane crashed for some other reason, without a trace.

(3) Plane was physically hijacked by persons aboard the airplane and either crashed in ocean somewhere or ended up on land somewhere.

(4) Plane was electronically hijacked, remotely, and flown to some unknown location for reasons unknown.

(5) Aliens abducted plane.

As to each theory, there is inferential, or circumstantial evidence [except for the alien one].  To identify which is more likely, let's look at the incentives, or CUI BONO and make an educated decision:

(1) No one benefits.  All are dead.  Not even the pilot benefits from getting credit for killing all aboard, because he did not send radio call.  Airline certainly does not benefit.  Absent some proof of this, then the supposed benefit evaporates, leaving no incentive for this pilot to do the unthinkable.

(2) Aircrash disaster attorneys benefit, for sure!  Free money!  Planes do not crash in mid ocean without a trace, res ipsa loquitur.  Question is which large insurance carriers pay out to which groups of lawyers.  Airline does not benefit, insurers do not benefit, aviation lawyers do benefit, big time.  But, those lawyers who stand to benefit, do we really believe they would crash the plane, or cause it to crash to realize the benefit?  I do not believe that for one minute.  

(3) Same as number 1.  No terrorist group has claimed responsibility that I know of.  No trace of physical evidence, or radio call, or transponder code, or satellite data, etc., so this theory is without proof, if one presupposes that the hijackers wanted notoriety for their deed.  Airline does not benefit.  No one else benefits.

(4) Remote hijacking, of course.  Whatever was on the plane, whether something physical, or something inside of someone's head, had to be immensely valuable.  I have heard theories, including as per Garrow, that some incredible, and valuable technology was either being transported, or the person or persons with knowledge of same was aboard the plane.  I have also heard that Rothschild banksters stood to benefit if certain passengers happened to die.  So, at least with this theory, there is a viable incentive structure.  Adding to this incentive structure would be potential military  or black ops groups that stand to benefit from the supposed cloaking technology, so I can for sure see where the price [innocent passenger deaths] is worth the reward [incredibly powerful military technology].

(5) Do I need to say anything on this?

Anyhow, that is my analysis in a nutshell.

I Run Bartertown's picture

Death Panels?

Maybe not. I'm sure plenty of old billionaires would prefer youth farms:

"Two teams of scientists published studies on Sunday showing that blood from young mice reverses aging in old mice, rejuvenating their muscles and brains...“I am extremely excited,” said Rudolph Tanzi, a professor of neurology at Harvard Medical School, who was not involved in the research. “These findings could be a game changer.”...The research builds on centuries of speculation that the blood of young people contains substances that might rejuvenate older adults...

...delivering the blood of young rats into old ones. To do so, they joined rats in pairs by stitching together the skin on their flanks. After this procedure, called parabiosis, blood vessels grew and joined the rats’ circulatory systems. The blood from the young rat flowed into the old one, and vice versa...

The scientists joined old and young mice for five weeks and then examined them. The muscles of the old mice had healed about as quickly as those of the young mice, the scientists reported in 2005. In addition, the old mice had grown new liver cells at a youthful rate...

The young mice, on the other hand, had effectively grown prematurely old. Their muscles had healed more slowly, and their stem cells had not turned into new cells as quickly as they had before the procedure...The experiment indicated that there were compounds in the blood of the young mice that could awaken old stem cells and rejuvenate aging tissue. Likewise, the blood of the old mice had compounds that dampened the resilience of the young mice.

Dr. Rando and his colleagues wondered what signals the old stem cells would receive if they were bathed in young blood...“We can turn back the clock instead of slowing the clock down,”

BOG, this is begging for some ghoulish artwork devil. Sheldon Adelson or George Soros buying immortality... If I had your talent I'd add a sufficiently horrifying visual.

ancientmoney's picture

!I Run Bartertown . . . maybe we can get a visual of . . .

Dr. Frankenstein hooking up a big rat to George Soros, as the "before", and then another visual of the "after."

Edit: I don't think they're billionaires, but a mouse hooking up with Mr. Magoo (Greenspan) or Ben the Bernank would also do . . . oh, wait, it's BLOOD they need to swap.

thedukes's picture

Sorry to hijack this thread

I just tried posting a question to Trader Dan on the cult issue and could not post because I didn't have a google account or a word press account or AIM and so on.

For those of you that frequent this site and his I really want to know why he chose to post his message last week. What is the significance in the timing of that message. Why didn't he post it 2.5 years ago or 1 year ago or some time in the future? I think that is important this gets addressed.

Nana's picture

I Run Bartertown

Your post reminded me of a couple old TV programs. One was a movie from maybe the 50's? Anyway the people running the college used young women to transfer youth back into them. The other was either The Twilight Zone or The Outer Limits episode that had a woman who had clones of herself in all different ages and when something was needed a clone was killed and used to replace a part....

Truth is stranger than fiction....and they do not call it programing for nothing....

ancientmoney's picture

the dukes re: timing of Dan Norcini's missive . . .

I doubt he'd give an answer.  My guess is he had to deliver the message requested by that man in the black suit . . .

GuerrillaCapitalist's picture

Tempted to Get Back in the Market

I enjoyed the two videos from the Casey Group and found their rationale for speculative investment in junior energy and mining compelling. Thanks to Turd for bringing them to my attention.

Life on the farm is busy but I've been sniffing around some of the companies mentioned. 

I'm curious as to why so few Turdites have commented on the advice offered by successful, market savvy investors. Surely we're not lacking in contrarian views, are we?

I Run Bartertown's picture

Finest Rhetoricians (sorry DrJ)

While I was thumbing through the 'grotesqueries of the future file' where that last thing was, I found this. You may know some college kids. You might think they can make a cogent point. But when it comes to shining beacons of dialogue, these are the finest our nation has to offer:

"It used to be that if you went to a college-level debate tournament...It was tame, predictable, and, frankly, boring. No more.

These days, an increasingly diverse group of participants has transformed debate competitions, mounting challenges to traditional form and content ...On March 24, 2014 at the Cross Examination Debate Association (CEDA) Championships at Indiana University ... the resolution asked whether the U.S. president’s war powers should be restricted. Rather than address the resolution straight on, Ruffin and Johnson, along with other teams of African-Americans, attacked its premise. The more pressing issue, they argued, is how the U.S. government is at war with poor black communities.

This year wasn't the first time this had happened. In the 2013 championship, two men from Emporia State University, Ryan Walsh and Elijah Smith, employed a similar style and became the first African-Americans to win two national debate tournaments. Many of their arguments, based on personal memoir and rap music, completely ignored the stated resolution

They completely ignored the resolution...in a DEBATE...and WON!

In the final round, Ruffin and Johnson squared off against Rashid Campbell and George Lee from the University of Oklahoma, two highly accomplished African-American debaters with distinctive dreadlocks and dashikis. Over four hours, the two teams engaged in a heated discussion of concepts like “nigga authenticity” and performed hip-hop and spoken-word poetry in the traditional timed format. At one point during Lee’s rebuttal, the clock ran out but he refused to yield the floor. “Fuck the time!” he yelled.

In defense of the judges, this young diplomat only won 2nd place.

Critics of the new approach allege that students don’t necessarily have to develop high-level research skills or marshal evidence from published scholarship. They also might not need to have the intellectual acuity required for arguing both sides of a resolution. These skills—together with a non-confrontational presentation style—are considered crucial for success in fields like law and business.

You think so?

Hardy and others are also disappointed with what they perceive as a lack of civility and decorum at recent competitions

You think so?

http://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2014/04/traditional-college-debate-white-privilege/360746/

Fox LOVES it!

NW VIEW's picture

Craig

Mr. Garrow's interview and revelations are bad news for mankind.  Lets hope that these things do not come to pass.   Neither a  tin foil hat or bug out bag will shield America if half of this is true.  When and if an EMP attack happens, TF Metals will be a memory along with all other forms of electronic communications.  My skills as a child in sending smoke signals will be useful. 

Green Lantern's picture

That's some seriously messed

That's some seriously messed up debating!   I wonder if those colleges receive government funds from my tax's?   Let them work for JP Morgan when they graduate.

Dr Jerome's picture

Debaters

Yes, they certainly do receive some funding from our taxes. It costs 40-50 K per year to field a competitive CEDA debate team, and if there is not a large corporate sponsor, and there usually isn't, the coaches go begging to the dean for funds to cover the team travel expenses and the coach's stipend--funds that come right out of the State appropriations (from a state college). If your kids go to a private school, the funds come out of your financial aid awards and tuition payments to that college.

Good thing I am not a CEDA judge. I appreciate the oratorical arts of other cultures, but to bring rap style debating into a NCAA intercollegiate organization that provides a venue for future lawyers, politicians, and corporate advocates is setting these kids up to fail. The two young women who simply rattled off their argument as fast as they could spit them out will have to retrain themselves as well. They were much closer to the traditional CEDA style where speed counts for more than content. I wonder what the "losers" who debated closer to the traditional style of corporate America feel?

I can smell the Core Curriculum influence under these results . 3 x 4 = 11

CA Lawyer might suggest a different style of argumentation for American courts.

DeaconBenjamin's picture

More than 60 pounds of gold recovered from shipwreck

More than 60 pounds of gold were recovered from an infamous 157-year-old shipwreck off the coast of South Carolina last month, and the deep-sea exploration company that retrieved it announced today that there is plenty more down there.

On April 15, the Odyssey Marine Exploration used a robot to recover nearly 1,000 ounces of gold during the first reconnaissance dive to the S.S. Central America shipwreck site in more than two decades.

The exploration was appointed by an Ohio court in an effort to retrieve the treasure for former investors who were defrauded in the original hunt.

The treasure recovered by the Odyssey last month includes "five gold ingots and two $20 Double Eagle coins (one 1857 minted in San Francisco and one 1850 minted in Philadelphia)." Estimated value: $1.2 million.

http://news.yahoo.com/gold-ss-central-america-shipwreck-carolina-142546287.html

Cleburne61's picture

60 lbs of gold

60 lbs of gold would've been an unreal fortune for most of history, but today, at $1300 US, you could barely retire on it in most big cities.

Also, that's 30 kilos....30 kilos of gold would disappear in some new, upper-middle-class China man's shoe box in the blink of an eye...

The 20 tonnes on board was a substantial horde for a sunken treasure ship, but would still be snapped up by Shanghai in about 4 business days.  Pretty amazing to think about.  

Stack it while you can.

Mr. Fix's picture

Thank you for the Jim Garrow interview,

hateamericans.jpgBut it's only an hour long, and covers a lot of ground that I've heard before. Dave Hodges interviewed Jim yesterday, for a full three hours sh0w, and is supposedly breaking information tomorrow as a result of that, that will “change the world”.

Here's a link:

http://thecommonsenseshow.com/2014/03/31/blockbuster-interview-with-jim-garrow-march-30-2014/

when the two of them put their heads together, all kinds of answers spell out.

Have a nice evening…

Turd Ferguson's picture

And this is brand new

MODERATOR

Dan with Jim Rickards:

Patrancus's picture

a Cloaking devise

is something the Poindexters of science have been working on for many years.

Turd Ferguson's picture

And the plot thickens further...

MODERATOR
DayStar's picture

Harvey's Up! (TFMR)

The Complete and Unabridged Harvey:  http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/403727#comment-403727

  • Harvey: We had both Japan and England closed today. With London closed, the physical markets remained comatose. Expect a mini raid tomorrow as we witnessed silver lag behind gold today coupled with the lousy performance of the gold/silver equity shares, and tomorrow is a Tuesday. These are sure signs that the colluding bankers wish to orchestrate another raid tomorrow. 
  • Chris Powell: Market analyst Ronald-Peter Stoferle of Incrementum AG in Liechtenstein argues that a gold standard for the world financial system is a prerequisite for peace and "does not constitute any significant economic or organizational problem." Rather, Stoeferle writes, "it is a highly political and philosophical question of principle," and it will have to await even greater strain on that financial system.
  • Koos Jansen: There has been so much gold flowing into the mainland since 2007 of which they don’t know were it ended up (the accumulative difference 2007-2013 was 1989 metric tonnes in total). When I called the SGE a few months ago to ask where the difference was going, they told me these are withdrawals from individual SGE account holders. If these individuals are secretly jewelers trying to avoid VAT rules or institutional buyers I don’t know. I do know these 1989 metric tonnes haven’t been used for stock increases at jewelers or banks. In 2012 the accumulative difference accounted for 983 tonnes. With so much gold “in stock” why would they add another 1051 tonnes in 2013? Their third argument is that: “holdings increased by commercial banks to back paper products (a legal requirement in China)”. Ok, so that has got nothing to do with demand? That gold is just brought into a vault, laying there soon to be obsolete? No, they’re referring to Chinese buying gold on paper that oddly enough has to backed by physical gold in China – I know, it’s unbelievable. 
  • Bill Holter: A client of mine was recently sent an e-mail by Mr. Dent which he forwarded to me and wanted my take. In a "nutshell" which I will crack into pieces below, Harry Dent wrote about a $1 bet that he made with Porter Stansberry 2 years ago when gold was trading at $1,650. He bet that 10 years into the future, gold would be lower than it was at the time. Harry Dent claims that gold is NOT a safe haven and that it will trade down to $700 in the next 2 years and will probably bottom between $250 and $400 by 2022. The letter said "he's looking good (so far)". I believe he is delusional at best. He said the action of the dollar during the 2008 meltdown was "proof" that the dollar is THE safe haven and that gold is not (because it dropped in late 2008). Dent says that there will be no inflation and supports it with and I quote "governments have been printing at unprecedented levels for 5 years now and there is little official inflation. Mr. Dent also claims as "proof" that gold will crash is that it was in a "bubble" that has popped and is in the process of returning to whence it started which in this case is $250-$400. Have you ever taken into account that there are now 100 "ounces of gold" represented by paper that do not even exist ...and never will? On this point alone I could argue that real physical gold should really be valued in dollars at $130,000 per ounce! 
  • Bill Holter: The Saudi display of Chinese missiles in a recent military parade only makes sense from a "strategy" standpoint if they are going to pull ALL of the triggers at once. The display of Chinese missiles by the Saudis only fits the "time wise" with what else is going on if TPTB are about to pull the plug on the dollar. Russia can now invade the Ukraine, they have the troops and machinery amassed to do this. On Friday there were deaths of many pro Russians in the Ukraine so Mr. Putin now has the green light politically to do this. We also know that China and Russia are set to ink a massive energy and pipeline deal within the next several weeks. Saudi Arabia was a lingering question mark in all of this ...until now. I could be wrong but it looks to me like this "dot" just got connected to all the rest. If my analysis or theory holds any water, it looks like all system are now "go" for the isolation of the U.S.
  • Tyler Durden: For the 6th month in a row, China HSBC Manufacturing PMI missed expectations. With a 48.1 print for April (vs 48.3 flash) this is a very modest rise from March's 48.0 but is the 4th month in a row of contraction for the broader-based HSBC-version of the PMI (as opposed to the official more-SOE-biased version which remains in modest expansion). This is the longest streak of contraction since Oct 2012 (and the 3rd consecutive month of new order contraction) as employment drops for the 6th month in a row. Most worrying new export orders dropped further showing no signs of a US-driven pick-up post-weather. As if that was not enough to upset the 'recovery is around the corner' crew, home sales in China in the most recent (most frenetic typically) period, collapsed 47% year-over-year (and a stunning 65% in tier-2 cities).But apart from that - everything's great in the newly appointed largest economy on earth.
  • Daryna Krasnolutska, Jonathan Allen and Patrick Donahue: Amid the escalating tension in Ukraine’s easternmost, largely Russian-speaking regions, the yield on Ukrainian government debt rose 25 basis points to a six-week high of 10.90 percent, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Russian bonds fell, with the yield on ruble-denominated government debt due February 2027 jumping 20 basis points to a seven-week high of 9.67 percent. The ruble slid 0.3 percent against the central bank’s target dollar-euro basket. Penalties imposed by the U.S. and EU have so far targeted officials, individuals and companies tied to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s inner circle. The next step would be action against sectors of the Russian economy, including banking and energy. Those penalties would have consequences mostly for European countries, which have more extensive economic ties with Russia than the U.S. does.
  • Zero Hedge: The good news: in April, 118.4 million Americans had a full-time job, the most since November 2008. The bad news: in April 9.8 million Americans were unemployed, 92 million people were out of the labor force, and 27.3 million people had part-time jobs. A total of 129.1 million, the most since ever.
  • Wayne Madsen: The seen and unseen forces who dictate policy to their political puppets in Washington, London, Paris, Brussels, Berlin, and other vassal capital cities have decided to smash BRICS – the emergent financial power bloc encompassing Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. What U.S. intelligence and its Western counterparts are planning for the BRICS is the very same thing that the West accuses Russia of doing in Ukraine: financing separatist groups with the intent of peeling away at the national integrity of the BRICS nations. As far as Western intelligence agencies are concerned, the BRICS have two choices: remain committed to the BRICS as an alternative to Western domination and face the breakup of their nation-states or throw in the towel and agree to surrender themselves to the dictates of the Central Intelligence Agency, the centurions for Wall Street, and the «company’s» junior partners in London, Paris, and Berlin.
  • JB Bardot (jbbardot.com): Food grade diatomaceous earth has many uses including detoxification of the body — inside and out; protecting pets and livestock from parasites and insect infestation; and keep your yard and garden pest-free. Add diatomaceous earth to your diet to detox parasites that can contribute to food intolerance, nausea, bowel discomfort, pain, itching, asthma, sinus infections, Morgellon’s disease, and a host of other allergic-type reactions. DE detoxes mercury, cadmium, lead and other heavy metals; removes poisons from chemtrails, radiation and may alleviate the effects of GMOs. DE possesses antibacterial, anti-fungal and antiviral properties. In addition to detoxing and destroying pathogens, diatomaceous earth helps to lower blood pressure and contributes to the production of collagen to improve skin tone, strengthening the tendons and joints. 

All this and more on...

The Harvey Report! smileycoolsmiley

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/403727#comment-403727

DayStar

treefrog's picture

off topic: the perfect dog for turdistan

latest resident at treefrog manor

SILVER dapple miniature dachshund

name:  SPOT

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