Alt Media Quality Discussion

Last week Trader Dan made a post on cults and precious metals websites. He went on to point out many cultish similarities with the TFMR site in particular, as a criticism of the advice to buy and hold PMs during a prolonged bear market in same.

http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.ca/2014/05/the-gold-cult.html

The comments which followed his post were interesting, and many came from ex TFMR active members.

Now I’ll bet that there are several who wish I was not choosing this particular subject as my topic for today ( Turd's not one of them BTW). You see, there really are a small group of people who post at TFMR for whom I agree with Trader Dan that his criticism does apply. But there are a lot of others to whom I think it doesn’t apply. That would be the majority by far.

Does it apply to Turd? I will say this: Turd espouses a buy and hold PMs as a bet against the debt, and he took a big one on the chin during the last 16 months as the 2012 rally turned out to be a bear market rally which was retraced to the downside, and more. Nobody's perfect.

I must say that I do not know what Mr Norcini was suggesting as his own readers' trades in PMs during the same period, and whether this turned out well or adversely, as I only look into his site every now and again. I have no desire to go back to check as it would not add anything to my own skills or expectations. So I will say this is not about Dan, not a criticism of Dan who has his reasons and own forum to look after. Nor is this intended to refute Dan’s comments, but to add my 10 cents.

I raise this point: if buying to trade - it is illogical and costly to hold when the market goes against one’s position. Get out fast, and try again to buy later and lower, and hope that works better that time than this time. Basic trading 101. And that would be Trader Dan’s timeframe, and mode of business I expect.

But what about the core stash which is in physical? This is not practical to buy, and sell, and buy back again many times, taking wide margins on the chin each time. Churning physical holdings is not practical or wise. So what if an averaging in process is done, buying regularly and regardless of the market price on any given day? It's not my way to do things I assure readers, but there are many out there, who advise such a strategy with eg Exxon, Coke, and other blue chips, and gold while it does not pay a dividend is a sort of “blue chip”  I suggest. Like blue chip stocks, Gold comes back over time.

Now if one buys at the top, and gold then begins to decline for a year and a half, and “say” it takes a year and a half to make a comeback before moving onwards to new highs, then what? There is an opportunity cost incurred, because if the money was invested in TBonds instead, a loss of interest would follow during the gold holding period. Aaah, but interest rates are on the floor now. Not much loss there so.

The next problem is that there is opportunity cost by buying gold high, presumeably on the averaging cost basis with money which could have been alternatively employed in buying stocks which are rising over the period gold was falling.

But I feel it needs saying that if I were to give up buying at lows and instead choose to average cost buy my assets, then I would be averaging into gold, and at the exact same time I would be averaging into bonds, commodities, TBills and stocks too! One half goes up while the other half goes down, it’s a balanced portfolio. So what’s the problem, so long as one does not sell at lows after averaging in at every price? So long as one does not divest at lows, averaging in works in any inflation proofed asset which returns to fashion later.

So it is clear that the greatest losses were suffered by those who bought and held at a high of 2011 or 2012. They had to buy overweight. They had to have no counter balancing asset to move in a contrary fashion to act as a hedge. In short they had to believe the world was going to end or near, and that right soon after their purchase. That was the setup belief system for the greatest losers in the recent or current PM bear market. Oh yes, another thing: they also probably leveraged up to the eyeballs too. After all “the world was going to end. Gold is tame, deal in silver. Silver is not volatile enough, go for the mining stocks and get 5x leverage to silver”. Or options ....

Unfortunately the world did not end, and it’s not about to. And even if empires are to fall, those things take decades if not lifetimes to work their way out. And this is not rocket science.

Now I mentioned near the start of this article that there are some who will wish I didn’t bring this up. I really wish those readers will please consider the paragraph above this carefully. Prepping is all very well. But aliens arriving tomorrow, nuclear detonations in the backyard, and the implosion of the entire western financial system in a week – these are not items on my list of immediate concerns – and the sources who these people quote, and to be fair and totally clear about this, Turd is not who I have in mind here, they are purveying far out terror porn. Like Dan I will not mention names but the alt media has an oversupply of wacky far out doomsters that do not help people all that much, and that's putting it mildly.

But I like TFMR which has only a small clique of over the top doomsters, and they are not on my ignore list. I want to see the latest shout of coming annihilation or whatever, just so I can reconsider my own premise and scenarios. Every “source” has a track record of success or failure. Every source’s track record is going to improve or disimprove over time. It is good to remember that and take it into account. Many people are wiser now than they were a couple of years ago. I posit that trading in the stock market would teach the same lessons over time as the PM market has taught in the past 16 months, or 3 years depending on entry date for buy and hold long positions.

But here is the big deal. To buy physical, it is not a good idea (in my humble opinion) to average in, despite the many voices who advise this. Dan does not address this point as he buys and sells.

So with an illiquid asset like physical PMs, which has high transaction cost, what is best to do? Simply put, it to do the majority of buying after a substantial decline, and then hold for the long term and amortize the high transaction costs over time. This works for Coke, Exxon, and Gold. It is tried and tested with the other great but even more illiquid asset – I mean land. We all know this.

And the people who got hurt knew that all the time. Deep down inside they knew it. What made them disregard it was a fear to miss out on the imminent end of the world. They bought into the doom alt media and disregarded reality and the inherent stability of even declining systems and structures.

Many months ago I posted a blog article making the case that the Dollar is an institution and wasn’t going away, overnight, or in a very long time, which goes to the heart of this matter. That blog article was posted here at TFMR in August 2013:

The Institution of Money.

In October 2013 I posted this article about groupthink in internet fora and websites. :

Financial & PM Websites & Internet Fora - Are They Specialized Information Repositories or Merely Sources of Groupthink?

Those are just examples that come to mind at the moment. Of course I was not contributing at TFMR in 2011, but started early 2013.

So did Dan bring anything new to the table not discussed before? Not to me, given I've already raised these issues at TFMR, but possibly for some other readers. But I enjoyed his article, and considered all the arguments again to see if anything had changed since I last thought about those issues. He was correct in that there are a few who round on anyone who criticizes Turd to protect, which is unnecessary as Turd is well able to speak for himself.  I do think these members constitute a "cultish" force at TFMR, and wish they wouldn't do that, but because they are relatively few they don't stop discourse between the rest, who do what we all do, and pay more attention to some than others.

I was happy enough for SRoche to bring the article to my attention, and felt no need to blindly attack or deny anything. I just saw more fresh information, so I read it, and assimilated it (like the Borg!), and hopefully my judgment gets better for that.

If a silver round has the host's image on it, and it's low cost silver, the price is what matters, and the rest is a bit of fun. ASEs are nice but expensive and weigh one ounce too. It's the buyer's choice, as in everything else. I have some ASEs and some Turd rounds.

For the record my average cost of PMs is located a tiny bit above the current trading range high for the metals. No transactions, just buy and hold. Buy as wisely as possible as it's a single shot transaction which requires great care. If they go down more, I’ll buy more at the extreme low if I can identify it. That is how long term accumulation of illiquid assets gets done in the real world.

Dan mentioned about providing information for free as a test, and trading for a living. A bit disengenuous, since not many have what it takes to be a successful trader. Should all traders open a free blog? Rhetorical only, reply not required obviously.

But my blog is here and that part is free, so I do my bit. I hope it's not considered "free internet BS", as I put a lot of care and thought into it, and hopefully readers get value from it. But if someone can't see the value in it, I'm not bothered and have no worries about quality control.

But I as well as everybody else have my good days and worse days, so like the Curate's Egg, it's good in parts!

To recap:

There are many varied voices at TFMR, both measured and more urgent, often in opposition to one another, but sometimes in accord, discussing a myriad of issues. A lot more than just trading I would add. Readers are free to pick and choose from the many views put forth on this website.

Argentus Maximus

The author posts daily commentary on the gold and silver markets in the TFMR forum: The Setup For The Big Trade. More information about the author & his work can be found here: RhythmNPrice.

63 Comments

Mr. Fix's picture

First, there is a disinformation agenda at all levels:

Something that I have noticed in the past few weeks, is that even formally “reliable sources”, have become less than reliable. I suspect that well-known “whistleblowers”, “inside sources”, or “alternative media outlets” are being  fed a cacophony of  misinformation,  most probably to weed out who the “whistleblowers” actually are.

Let's say you are high up in the “ evil Empire”, and you want to find out who is loyal to you.

All you have to do is come up with a whole bunch of different, sometimes outlandish stories, and then make a careful note of who you tell them to.

Then, you simply have to go to “Steve Quayle, Dave Hodges, Alex Jones,  Hagman and Hagmann, 

(or to save lots of time, go to the "DOTS" forum here at TF metals,)

and you can quickly find out who are the traitors in your organization.

This also serves the dual purpose of greatly confusing the populace, while undermining the credibility of the alternative press.

the only thing left that seems to be credible, are actual “eyewitness accounts”, and of course, my own assumptions as to what the end game actually is.

So far, it's playing out pretty much as expected, although I must admit, it's taking quite a bit longer than I originally anticipated.

This is a good thing, business has never been better, I can't even keep up!

Hopefully, I can ride this wave to the end.

As for the discussion that I did not participate in, namely, the name-calling from another site,

I found  it particularly “low class” to come here and start impugning this website.

I also found the entire discussion completely irrelevant to my quest for knowledge.

I personally disagree with most of the analysis offered, and sometimes I say so,

but character assassinations are completely out of line, like I said above,

absolutely everyone is being fed an epic amount of misinformation. 

silver66's picture

good perspective

Oh Yeah  SECOND

Silver66

AlienEyes's picture

Threed

trace

DeaconBenjamin's picture

Prisoners released as Pro-Russiaactivists storm Odessa police HQ

Pro-Russia militants inside the police headquarters in Odessa celebrate storming the compound

A group of pro-Russia activists has stormed the police headquarters in the southern Ukrainian city of Odessa and released scores of prisoners detained at the scene of deadly violence on Friday that culminated in people being burned alive in a trade union building.  In the pouring rain, men armed with clubs battered their way into the building through a vehicle entrance.  Ranks of riot police offered no resistance. When crowds burst into the compound and began smashing windows and wrecking police vans, officers agreed to release the activists.

Men and women, many in tears, emerged from the door of their cell block and left through a tunnel of cheering supporters. Local police said later that 67 people were set free.  "The police did not interfere," said Maksim, 26, an activist wearing a balaclava and a helmet who was one of the first to get inside the compound. "They are only defending their weapons."

Residents and government officials in Kiev have criticised the police, accusing them of fatal passivity during the violence in the Black Sea city.  More than 40 people were killed on Friday during street battles that escalated until pro-Ukraine activists launched a full-scale assault on the trade union building. It was defended by people opposed to the current regime and in favour of closer ties with Moscow. 

The Ukrainian prime minister, Arsniy Yatsenyuk, told the BBC that Odessa's security forces were responsible for the deaths.  "I personally blame the security services and law enforcement office for doing nothing," he said. "[They] are inefficient and they violated the law."  Yatsenyuk, who was reportedly due to visit Odessa yesterday, also said that the region's police chief had been dismissed.

Those inside the compound said that there was a lot of sympathy for the pro-Russia cause among lower-ranking police offers. "The police are with us," said Mikhail, 21, who had just been released.  One activist said that he had personally witnessed how police had covered pro-Russia fighters during street battles on Friday.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/04/pro-russia-prisoners-released-militants-storm-odessa-police-headquarters

F.Capra's picture

Holding Period

If one's time horizon is to hold for several years, then "averaging in" is not flawed. Holding gold and silver also removes the threat of bank and brokerage failure. This bull market began around 2000 to 2002 and I suspect it will last another 6 years. Buying low and selling high is truly desirable but when and when is it low enough or high enough?

sierra skier's picture

Do I get another top ten?

Do I get another top ten? Yup 6th.

Great read AM. Like you I have none on my ignore list as I like to hear alternative views as well as those which reinforce my thoughts. My stack is overall under water even above the recent trading bound range but not badly. I would love to buy in and reduce my average cost but have instead been filling holes in my other preps a little at a time. If prices were to tumble further I would more than likely make another healthy purchase to hold along with my stack. I do wish my PMs were a larger percentage of my overall holdings but continue to buy in as is affordable and prudent.

I am not a trader but in for the long term just like my home of 30 years and the privately held stock we have which goes back much further. I/we have however sold some of our metals which were bought knowing they would be turned in 6 months to 2 years if/when necessary. We actually did real well on one sale but did loose a small amount on the other. Just holding our extra cash in metals helped keep us more comfortable than holding cash or other paper assets so it was more than worth the effort. We have sold and bought small portions of our stock a few times as necessary to keep things on an even keel when needed. I do need to keep an eye on my significant other as she can get weak if she sees deals on desirable items she feels she needs like new carpet or furniture.

Overall I believe my current stack is worth much more than the current manipulated paper prices indicate and the stack gives me piece of mind above all else. There is just too much going on in today's world not to have some diversity in holdings.

Dagney Taggart's picture

Addition to the Loonie Bin

Chris Duane. Silver Stacking Tips and Tricks #1: Don't Buy Generic Silver

http://www.youtube.com/watch?&v=oT9zfPriCNM

There's no "monument to one's self" here? Chris' coins are not "generic"?

I know I posted this video yesterday. Perfect timing, Argentus.

argentus maximus's picture

" .... Then, you simply have

" .... Then, you simply have to go to “Steve Quayle, Dave Hodges, Alex Jones,  Hagman and Hagmann ..."

Hmmmmm.

argentus maximus's picture

Duane silver ...

The best thing he did was the SOLA videos.

His designs are pretty, but when all is said and done, Duane rounds are generic rounds too.

Barfly's picture

Dagney

Thanks for pointing that out. I've seen it in a couple of threads, but haven't remarked. I laughed and stopped that video at the point he suggested that I was going to take one of his rounds and sell it to someone for the same premium as an ASE. Ridiculous. If you tried to sell any of your silver to a dealer and wanted a premium over spot, they'd laugh in your face.

I have a couple of Duane's rounds. I bought them because they're pretty. That's what I paid for and why I paid for it. Other than that, they melt just like anything else made out of silver.

FreddyKrugerrand's picture

@ Argentus Maximus

...aliens arriving tomorrow, nuclear detonations in the backyard, and the implosion of the entire western financial system in a week – these are not items on my list of immediate concerns...  But I like TFMR which has only a small clique of over the top doomsters, and they are not on my ignore list. 

________________________________________________________________

I had the same reaction when I started coming to TFMR several months ago on a regular basis.  Yeah, I couldn't believe the REALLY over-the-top stuff I was reading.  That, and a lot of religious stuff.  At times I felt that I had entered a right-wing echo-chamber.  On the other hand, the folks who post these things write well and often have some other, gold-related things to say that are good take-aways.  In any case, this site beats the hell out of any of the MSM sites, especially with respect to information related to PMs.

As far as not recommending an "average in" strategy for buy-and-hold stackers, I don't know.  I don't trade, I only stack.  I've averaged in over the past 13 years and I'm happy to continue.  It has worked for me, but everyone's different and the buy-after-a-big-drop strategy you recommend may work better if you have the discipline (that I lack) to stick to it. 

John Galt's picture

Check the Charts

Gold and Silver rocketing higher. I wonder why on a Sunday night...is it head fake alert time?

DeaconBenjamin's picture

do the majority of buying after a substantial decline

I buy when I can, sell when I have to, and do my best to get my silver as cheaply as I can.

silver66's picture

John Galt beat me to it

just about to post a very fun spike up

Silver66

Les Baux's picture

Well-reasoned post AM! But now I am confused...

I understand the concern over the mindset espoused by the Turd, which I understand as follows:

(1) He is 100% convinced that PMs are subject to long-term price suppression that currently has them well below their fair market value.

(2) He is 100% convinced that the suppression scheme will have to end in the near future, probably within the next year, but definitely within the next 5, by which point PMs will reset multiples higher.  TEOTGKE!

Are those both accurate?  If so, and if his certainty is warranted, why need to hedge against anything else?  Just go all in.

Hopefully it's not universally accepted dogma here, it does seem to be what's coming from the top.  Dangerous, too, because if you are wrong you have all your eggs in a volatile, unproductive-by-definition basket.

Kudos on the level-headed response to the Trader Dan article, though.  You could have been forgiven for lobbing a few more grenades his way.

Mr. Fix's picture

It's always fun to look at,

[Most Recent Gold Prices]But even I don't think this means anything.

I could only speculate, maybe the world just noticed that World War III began this weekend… Naaaaaaaawink

John Galt's picture

True, but...

How does a chart go from $1300 to $1307 and define it as +$23.44?

argentus maximus's picture

" .... If so, and if his

" .... If so, and if his certainty is warranted, why need to hedge against anything else?  Just go all in. ... "

Maybe it is warranted. Maybe not. Would you go into a casino and put your life savings on red? You need to read up on a subject called Money Management (in the trading sense).

Nobody should ever go all in anything. Look: if the end was nigh and you were "right", the rules will be changed. Happens every time in big turns. Have you got all the possible parameters of that taken into account as well as correctness about the"certainty" part?

Allow for fallibility.

flyinkel's picture

Here's a first hand account for you, fear mongering? Nope!

Drones are already being used against the US population.  I do not know if they are weaponized.  They are being used at places like hotels/beaches/public and PRIVATE LANDS to spy on targets through the sliding glass doors or windows.  They are 14-16 inches or so, square in black and greys.  They do not make the wop wop sound of typical helos as their blades are enclosed by a surrounding ring.  They sound like a freight train in the distance.  They are fast and highly agile.  They are considerably more sophisticated than off-the-shelf type helicopters you could buy. They have a squarish nose that I assume is recording, but could also easily house laser technology. 

They are not being used against criminals, but against Constitutionalists, Ron Paul supporters, Rand Paul supporters, whistle blowers, anyone expressing the slightest dissatisfaction with our current government and spending.  They are a gross invasion of privacy and Constitutional rights.

They are already being used, do you believe it?  I thought not, but you should.

You don't know what you don't know.   Good luck out there, be well.

Mr. Fix's picture

@ flyinkel ........ :>)

Dyna mo hum's picture

Truism...

1+1+1+145486_463236770390331_1364318988_

stephanie's picture

Thank you, Argentus...a few thoughts

Nice thoughts in your piece. 

I wanted to just say that some of the people bashing Turd now for being "cultish" are the very ones who were engaging in cultish behavior on the site in the past. They wanted "Main Street" to be a certain way, and got very upset at people they disagreed with, or whose personalities they did not like.

Some of them were originally moderators, who were in fact previously positive contributors to the community. The combination of excessive enthusiasm for the site, along with their power as moderator, developed into a fanaticism that clouded objectivity. When Turd did not go along with their every request for the site to be a certain way, I think that's where the disillusionment started. 

Most of Turd's biggest critics today used to be his biggest fans. There's a psychological component going on where someone idealizes someone to the point of fantasy, and then when reality hits, that idealization turns into contempt really fast. I'm still not quite sure why people worship other people in such a fashion, but it seems that certain personality types gravitate towards this behavior.

The irony is Trader Dan is now benefiting from the same idealization from the same people who are now his "cult followers." When Trader Dan disappoints them, they will move on to the next new guru and starting bashing both Turd and Dan. Wait for it. It's bound to happen. 

Dagney Taggart's picture

Adding Another to the Loonie Bin: Dan Norcini

So I just had to look to see what all the fuss is about:

http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.ca/2014/05/the-gold-cult.html

I'm shocked that he allows such intellectual dishonesty. Shocked, I say! Total apples and oranges that Turd or this blog would even come up.

Dan is a trader. There are some traders here too. They have their dedicated forums to interact and our respect to do so. Do the Main Streeters here give them shit? No. Still others (like me) have careers outside of finance, we invest (because we don't have time to trade), and come here for the change in perspective and share information. Does that make us a cult? No. We're too diverse to be a cult. What we are though is prudent knowing that computers and central bankers are much quicker than we are and we do not have reliable information that would tip us off before they act. And they will. It's mathematically and historically inevitable (since we claim to acknowledge history, right Dan?).

It's entertaining seeing Pat Fields slap balls, including some of the self-righteous comedians who used to come here. I have just one question for them (pardon my French), "How does Dan's asshole taste?" I have never seen so much suck-up on a blog.......ever. Well maybe in The Speak. How strange and almost cult-like is that? At least a gold cult doesn't have identity crisis.

Green Lantern's picture

1.) There doesn’t seem to be

1.) There doesn’t seem to be a clear consensus or clarity (in my mind) of what the end means.  That applies equally to those who say that no end is in sight.  Which ending are we talking about?  It's not a small question

From AM’s article and previous posts, can I assume that the end equates to the end of dollar hegemony? 

Flyinkels comment would suggest, and please correct me if I am wrong, that the end is associated with the end of civil liberties and basic freedoms without the encroachment of government ie drones?   Not sure exactly what you are saying in regards to the end other than we are living under repressive conditions.  True.  But people in China have never voted in 5000 years and have been under a military regime for at least that longand their “empire” continues abeit with very tumultuous turning points and many revolutions.  

The end?  Like the Roman Empire ending where the United States breaks into a feudel system?  

The end has many connotations.  So if you post on the state of the end, it would be great if you gave the utmost of clarity on what you think constitutes the end.   And how does gold and silver correlate to that ending?  Are we suggesting they are two independent cycles? 

2.) AM, I’d like more clarity on your statement that endings take a long time.  When are you beginning the count? On What? Dollar hegemony?  Are you starting at 3 years ago with the introduction of the metals blogisphere and places like KWN?   1776?  The end of the gold standard?  I have been into the metals since the early 90’s for the same reasons others are into today.   The same talk has been around since at least FDR’s administration which is still not very long if we compare it to a China. 

3.) Agreed, Turd doesn’t need defending nor should I nor anybody feel compelled to defend their presence here on Turd.   But it’s evident from my comments on Friday and today on your thread, that I feel strongly about a vibrant healthy discourse on these and other issues and TFMR is as good as anyplace to do that.  As such, I deeply appreciate the service Turd offers and the service given by the blog writers, frequent contributors and those who run forums.   I think when wholesale criticism is levied against the entire community that some rebuttal is warranted.  I might go a bit further as a regular member of the community than if I were posting regular blogs on main street.  

I spent hours with  these individuals in public and private discourse and many here did as well.   These individuals were some of the most diligent, ardent preppers on TFMetals.   As a matter of fact one them insisted that our conversations should be narrowed to only market matters and prepping.  Prepping for what? Obviously, not a good time.   Certainly Turd was not responsible for them investing money in future calamity.  They came with that.   One of them led a forum on the miners making recommendations for purchases for the eventual bull market and then closed shop in the bear market. Seems like a great time to be assessing properties and buying opportunities.    Their comments take no responsibility for their own thought patterns and seek to impeach Turd and an entire community which they were once part of.   I don’t hold any harsh feelings but feel a rebuttal is warranted.  

4.) Fear Mongering... There is an old saying that nothing can harm you unless you allow it.  Somebody in the business of fear mongering knows the weak points of individuals and the group.  Government will use the survival factor within individuals and pain and use fear as a point of control.   Individuals who live in fear will often seek to gain validation of their own theories by getting others on board.  I personally have not felt anybody using fear to try to control me and those who I disagree with have not infected me with one ounce of fear.  If they had, I hope I am self aware enough to realize they only pushed a button that already existed with in me and I am obliged to take care of myself and not point the finger at somebody who did me the favor of making me recognize I have a button. 

I usually pay more attention to those who react sometimes viscously against such persons because such a reaction is often a sign of the fears, real or not, that they would rather not hear.  Ego defense mechanisms.   Psychology 101   I’d rather hear all theories and possibilities then turn a deaf ear although after hearing it, I might not pay attention with repeated callings if I feel that their particular point has no validity in my world.   

Recently somebody posted on a blog about a comethat was on a near collision with earth.  I guess he believed it was coming.  There was out rage at his allegation.  I had no information one way or another.  But I wasn’t planning to get out of dodge if it was to hit, oh well. Nothing I can do about it.  But the outrage was spectacular.  Was he fear mongering?  I think he was in some fear which triggered an already existing fear in others but do not think he consciously set out to gain control out of anybody out of fear.  To me that would be fear mongering. 

lakemike49's picture

dagney

you seem to have a handle on your investments, and you look to me to have a large amount of money. you are also very correct in how you seem to show what you do with your money. lose is something that happens , you do not focus on your day to day you look to your future . money is money i have lost a shit load, and yet  i still believe in the large amount that i have invested in my future, i thought i was a trader , i am a stacker we will see which one is right, this market will shake me but it will not break me, and i am not a young man my future  is closer than most, stab me lie to me try to take me out, i am what i am , and at this point, i am glad, i made a choice . right or wrong what will be will be.

lakemike

I Run Bartertown's picture

Always Learning

For a while when someone would come here expressing great concern for unnamed parties who've lost their savings, wives, etc I was puzzled. I always saw the 'looking out for them' posts, but I never saw any posts from anyone who seemed to need such protective concern. Certainly not anyone whose sob story warranted blaming TF as a contributory factor.

After a few times, I figured it out. The 'concerned hero' pose was a facade. The people they were so concerned about...could only be themselves. The people who had gotten in too deep into PM's and/or a doomer mindset...the people who let it become a negative, rather than positive, impact on their families...were them. No wonder they're pissed.

---------------------

EDIT - Incidentally,

1) all of the people in question are clearly dishonest and deranged; 2) all of them hated me; therefore 3) hating me is a sign of being deranged. Just Sayin'.

Fred Hayek's picture

Good stuff, AM but one quibble we know more in 2014 than we did

The outrageous manipulation of the precious metals has quite intentionally been to achieve counter intuitive results.  The Swiss Franc is going to be pegged to the euro and gold goes . . . down?!? Etc etc.  

With the clarity of hindsight, we now realize that this is what's being done.  In 2011, with each new geopolitical event, such as the eu debt crisis, it was not that silly for a person interested in PM's to think things were going to significantly unravel and that if he or she didn't buy, say, silver at 36 then he or she was going to have to pay more later or might have trouble getting it.  It's not fair to judge the choices of 2010-2011 by the greater understanding of the manipulation that we have today.  From 2001 to 2011 the bull market in precious metals was a sort of managed retreat.  Should John Q. Public precious metals buyer really be reproached for not realizing that the central banks and bullion banks would change their M.O. to the constant attacks we have now?  That's asking a bit much.  Noted writers in the PM arena didn't see it coming.  So, buying gold and silver in 2011 wasn't necessarily just being swayed by Alex Jones style doom porn.

Strongsidejedi's picture

OK... I will wade into this need to talk about cults

Since neither Dan nor TF are experienced in psychiatry or psychology, may I point out that the term cult could be applied to many "religious" things or "personalities".

I have missed DN's appearances on KWN.  I have not seen any statements from Eric King regarding why the Weekly Metals Wrap ended, but I used to enjoy hearing Dan's prognostications on trading range for the week ahead.  I would also point out that I downloaded nearly ever KWN file for about 2 years and continue to have them archived.  Therefore, if DN wants to replay those "prognostications", I can.  There aren't many interviews prior to the major swings in Ag or Au price.  In each case, there was no statement from KWN warning of such downturn ahead of time.  However, DN would use phraseology to describe the high end of the risk or trading range.  Even so, I appreciated DN's charts and explanations.  For someone new to PM's many years ago, I thanked Norcini publicly when I had the chance.

Let me comment on this issue of "Cults" because I have reviewed these issues privately and professionally over many years.

I did not know TF when he started the original blog.  TF was completely anonymous and did not want his identity known.  This anonymity continued for many months and through the years.  It was not until other people on this blog started hunting for similar voices and clips.  Then, his identity was revealed.

A person who pays money to start a blog and then chooses to hide his given birth name is not acting as a cult leader.  A cult leader typically wants their name known so that others worship and love on him.  While TF is appreciated, you can not say that his work is truly loved emotionally.  In fact, there are many people on the site who argue with TF about things.  I have argued with him at times and remain on the site.

I find the work done on the postings to be a terrific thing and a great opportunity to compare facts with other people.

It would be nice if other personalities in the trading business (there are many) could set up such a system to trade charts, guesses on the macro level, and politics; but none have.

The bottom line is that the definition of the cult is clear... and it does not apply to this site, where I know NONE of you personally and NONE of you know me personally.

The fact is that we're discussing interpretation of events without the prior editing and spin-cycle by the media.  And, we like it that way...anonymous... independent...judgmental...and hopefully admitting our own prejudices and bias.

There is nothing that holds people to the site other than the construct of the discussion and the caliber of the debate.

For a while, I took leave of the site due to my own issues.  But, I remain.

The discussion is the only place where I can go to really discuss macroeconomics, politics, and offer hypotheses on the events in the world.  This allows me to prioritize attention on what I and my family need.

Sorry that DN feels its a cult.  I'm not offended by his critique, but my reaction is sadness.  DN must be hurting bad for that type of comment to appear.  I hope things improve for him and his crowd, including the former set of posting parties at DN's site.

I may join to post there as well, but unfortunately, they do not allow anonymity the way TFMR permits.

DN - if you want my respect, permit true anonymity in your participation because google.com does not provide that level of security.

Green Lantern's picture

I find the work done on the

I find the work done on the postings to be a terrific thing and a great opportunity to compare facts with other people.

It would be nice if other personalities in the trading business (there are many) could set up such a system to trade charts, guesses on the macro level, and politics; but none have.

Exactly!!! TF offers a dynamic that few other places do.  A forum for diversity of opinion and to speak your mind. Nobody is generally taken to task for having a contrary opinion IF (big IF) you are able to lucidly defend and/or demonstrate a case for that opinion, bull, bear, end, no end etc...

I am obviously deeply interested in the psychology of all those folks who blame their losses on Turd and throw out the baby with the bathwater as if there was no forum for contrary opinions and there is often significant difference of opinions on all matters financial and geopolitical.   The accusations of this place being an echo chamber is unfounded.  

Here watch.... Everybody repeat after me.   Abe Lincoln was the President EVER!     I'll wait for the echo.   

stackaloha's picture

Thanks AM

I read "trader Dan's" article further the other day, it was linked to main st . I don't know much about his site although I have come across it a few times thru links. He seemed misinformed to me. As has been mentioned already, there are many opinions here and I definitely don't agree with all lol. Most people here believe that pm prices are safer than most paper investments at this time, I do THINK that's true. Also I think that most people on this site believe that pm prices will rise substantially in the future. To say that these similarities make us a cult is preposterous. 

I see opinions that run the whole known spectrum here in many areas whether its a born again Christian or new-ager or catholic or atheist. We have right-wingers and left-wingers. We have traders and stackers and those who do both. I would also bet that there are people here who do NOT believe that TEOTGKE is upon us!

Personally, I am not a joiner. I don't join churches, clubs, or generally speaking anything. This is partly because I don't want people to assume I'm like the other people involved I suppose (although that's not the only reason it's the pertinent one) simply because I typically come to my own opinions after trying to mentally step back and ask myself "why is this thing like this" followed by open-minded research that shape a broader understanding than I would otherwise have by just listening to someone else's opinion and then saying "ya, me too".

I haven't bought any tfmr rounds yet but I will soon. I actually forgot about them when I made orders over the weekend dammit, maybe I should post on "trader dan's" site a thank you note for the reminder HA!

I have none on ignore and I enjoy reading everyone's opinions on all subjects almost everyday! 

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