Bees & Bears, Psychopaths and TFAs

A good friend of mine once said to me “Argentus – Where do you think the psychopaths are in our society?”

I replied, “In prison, or mental hospitals I suppose” and he nodded. “You left out the rest who haven’t been diagnosed or caught yet. They’re active at the top of organizations, political parties, and business”.

This chap works in the prison service and had a direct knowledge of that which he spoke.

So let’s look at psychopaths for a minute. First the descriptive name. It’s a medical term that denotes lack of ability to feel or empathize for others. Cruelty to small creatures during childhood years is indicative of this mindset. But since there are degrees of psychopathy, and since the medical term is (A) inflexible whereas people change during the day/week/lifespan, and (B) implies they are something special and different in the current fashion to have a special term for every variation which creates false lines of division, whereas the truth is a seamless sliding scale of variation of humans ....  I prefer to use an older and better term for these people. They are selfish assholes.

I have my own sliding scale which works like this: on the left side of my imaginary measuring ruler I have normal people in all their many forms. Then as I move towards the edge I get to self-centred individuals. To the far side of those are selfish people who keep their selfishness private in their own life and behaviour. To the far edge of these lie more selfish people who live that way, but also apply their life principle (or lack of it, you decide) to those around them, and these I call assholes. Beyond these lie a group of selfish assholes who like to “go out and apply their powers” to those below or vulnerable to their actions. These are complete assholes. And beyond these are the uber version of the emotionless, the Total F*ck*ng Assholes - capitalized for both effect and descriptiveness. Let’s call these TFAs for convenience.

I would remind that there is no special political orientation for a selfish asshole, unless it also serves their personal needs. In that case the politics is compelling ... not them but for others ... for the asshole, politics is a tool, just that. So left-leaning or right-leaning, communist or fascist, red or blue, black, white, brown or yellow it doesn’t matter. Each group will have selfish assholes trying to worm their way up the organization of the group so they can wield it’s power and use it for their personal gain. Whether they get control depends upon the other people present and their character, the normal people who might choose to go along to get along, alternatively could put a stop to the cold hearted ruthless individual’s career path while they still remain above the individual in question.

To counter this possible control the selfish asshole will always form a clique, then later on, form a larger group or party, even a national army, of like minded people to his or herself, and that reduces the likelihood of this happening. But we always knew the basic principle underlying this : bad people form gangs to help them get what they want.

In my past I worked with hundreds of businesses, corporate and private. And it was something I learned that within about 2 minutes of first contact with an organization at it’s lower levels of staff, I could tell what personality type the CEO had in the sense of whether he was a TFA or not. We used to joke about this transparency among ourselves in office conversations. You see, everybody down the line in a corporation soon figures out what you must do to get ahead, and they adopt the behavioural patterns of the ultimate boss.

It would be tempting to further explore this idea of the non-human-feelings-inside psychopath, or TFA - which can be and often is - a corporation, or nation state, but I have not that much space here to do it. I am now going to pick my target more precisely.

Please note if you prefer to call yourself an “investor” or “stacker” you are still a trader only in the longer term!

So I will focus my attention on a different emotionless entity with which we gold and silver traders must deal and live with it’s behaviour. That is the market.

Every financial market is a TFA of the highest order, and you had better recognize that or it will hurt you. If you are the sort of person who uses phrases like "I feel such and such will happen .... " then you may be especially vulnerable when dealing with the market. Emoting does not help in this game.

For the purposes of this text, I propose that the market can be considered as a symbiotic group organism, like a nation state, or a termites’ mound. I thinks that today, the market can become, just for a few minutes, a beehive.

So every day the beehive wakes up at opening time, though there is a little activity before that, and business gets really going. The minions of the beehive go about their daily activities taking nectar from the flowers and storing the honey. The security detachment guard the honey, doling out small amounts as rewards and incentives to the group members involved. They sting the hell out of anyone found trying to take all the honey. It’s a process, like a computer program running, and there is not emotion involved. It is self perpetuating, self replicating, and self protecting. Really like a corporation in many ways. Really like a TFA too.

So some similarities with the markets should be coming to reader’s attention already. We by the way are the flowers in this case, as we get a service (investment provision) in return for our nectar (fees!). But that’s all we get, and the fees are high and the service is not so great. Well the bees are not working for us, they work for the hive. We are colleagues, not partners. So what happens if we decide to get proactive and “go get ourselves some of that there nice honey”? Well we get to meet the soldiers and experience a different side of the bees than we hitherto knew of.

Please now flip your attention fully to the gold and silver markets.

This time I take the predator-prey relationship of honey stealing bears and bees. The bears have driven it down and PMs are standing their ground. The bears will attack again to drive PMs down some more. Flip back to the beehive for a moment. The bears came and took the honey in a surprise attack end 2012. They mounted another surprise attack April 2013 and took more honey. November-December 2013 the bears came back and took more golden honey. (see what I did there – I picked this analogous model of the bees carefully ! ) .

Well for every action there is a reaction. In 2012 there was little reaction to a surprise. Gold declined. In April 2013 there was a greater reaction to the decline and substantial buying was initiated at lows. In December there was an even greater reaction, and gold failed to make a significant new low, due to the reaction of buying into weakness.

There is an army of buyers waiting for new weakness, so if they are really there, when the bears attack again, can gold decline much more? That remains to be seen.  The discussion thus far should indicate that the effort required to break the resolve of millions of buyers lurking around the lows will be gigantic. The bears are powerful, but finite. Money creation weakens bond markets and they absolutely need to borrow and print. Either the one or the other will weaken their case against a strong gold price. They want to first print, and sell bonds at high price, and have a weak gold price. It's not so easy doing that now.

Preparations have been made. Let the late bears come. We are the bees!

We, together with some of our less cooperative nation state colleagues are waiting for late bears to come and we will buy what golden assets the bears make available during an attack. The bears suspect this of course. They have excellent information sources, better than is right or just. Therefore expect little lightning raids at dawn rather than the all out attack which exposes too much.

Argentus Maximus

The author posts daily commentary on the gold and silver markets in the TFMR forum: The Setup For The Big Trade. More information about the author & his work can be found here: RhythmNPrice.

This is not investment advice, but rather educational material for discussion, and entertainment. Readers are expected to obtain professional advice from a qualified member of the financial services industry before risking their assets in the financial markets. All the above ideas and discussion should be prefaced with the words: "in my humble opinion and as best I can tell from what I see at the moment ...."

54 Comments

squib's picture

another nice read

Thank you.
Argentus, you are the bees knees.

dgstage's picture

Psychopaths

I would bet the bigger percentage are, politicians, bankers and CEO,s.

Mr. Fix's picture

3rd

" Therefore expect little lightning raids at dawn rather than the all out attack which exposes too much."

I am not concerned about what they do at dawn, it's what they do under cover of darkness that concerns me.

“Being exposed” is of no concern to them, a financial Armageddon is their goal, and since they are above the law, they can steal with impunity, planet Earth is already bankrupt. They will gleefully kill billions rather than be held accountable.

I also still think they intend to bring down the entire  global financial system, and in doing so, annihilate most of human civilization.  Everything that happens until then is just noise. Calling our adversaries “psychopaths” is of course a true statement, but I prefer to categorize them as pure evil.

Keep stacking.smiley

sierra skier's picture

4th

Good morning .

Great Analogy. Something even I can understand.

silver66's picture

Fifth

Very interesting observation that organizations take on the personality or reflect the mental health of the CEO. Thanks for the post.

Silver66

argentus maximus's picture

This is a discussion about

This is a discussion about eliminating inner emotion from decision making and analysis in the emotionless and ruthless marketplace.

Yet it ends with an emotional rallying call.  Twisting and turning required, and segues got pushed to the limit. smiley

Did you buy into the emotion at the end? wink For the record it's genuine, BUT how I feel has zero input when attempting to figure out what coming down the pike!

argentus maximus's picture

" ... or reflect the mental

" ... or reflect the mental health of the CEO ... "

A very good point Silver66. It adds to the whole idea. Thanks.

AM

Urban Roman's picture

Well, you know what Papa Joe used to say

"When on person is killed it is a tragedy; when a million are killed, it is a statistic."

It's looking like the 21st century will produce some TFAs who make Joe look like the guy next door..

El Gordo's picture

I found this interesting...

Speaking of the hunter and the prey, sometimes it's hard to identify which is which without a program.

http://indian.ruvr.ru/2014_04_21/Russian-Su-24-scores-off-against-the-American-USS-Donald-Cook-5786/

Patrancus's picture

the Goldbug floats like a butterfly,

there is another day coming when the Goldbug will sting like bee.

silver66's picture

My meeting notes with Jim Sinclair

April 26 Meeting notes with Jim Sinclair

Here is a summary of my notes from the meeting, it is not exhaustive or even a representation of what was said, rather it is what I heard and chose to write down.

I attended Jim’s first roadshow in Toronto last year, this was an opportunity to hear his wisdom again and for me to compare his message to see if there were changes to his outlook. A fellow stacker that attended did so to get a feel of Jim as a man. He wanted to compare what he reads on his website to him the man. He was very impressed with Jim.

The facilities were more moderate than last meeting (this is neither good nor bad, it is tough to top the Royal York). I would guess there were 170-200 people there, predominantly male and based on the cars in the parking lot, affluent. The crowd at his first meeting was older than this crowd. It appeared to be more in the 35-50 age group range.

Jim’s team provided each attendee with attendee with a list of what he considered to be valuable resources, he also had Bo Polny in attendance and Mr. Polny joined him on stage for the Q&A

Jim started off with a 20 minute monologue/speech covering many topics, then answered some pre-sent e-mail questions. We had a break then 3 hours or so of Q&A

I am going to make most of my observations into bullet points

Jim started off with this statement

  • Nothing has changed in 2 yrs regarding the OTC derivative market, OTC derivative market has grown. The regulators live in fantasy world for letting them Mark value to Maturity. This is not going to happen
  • When businesses are a going concern the bets (Jim is adamant that derivatives are just casino bets) are notional. They become real value ( fully valued ) when a firm goes bankrupt.
  • BIS and IMF situation is bad for the OTC Derivatives (? Not sure why I wrote this down) Jim must have had a seniors moment because he said Christine Legarde was a good looking lady, I damn near spit my coffee out on that statement, but I guess we all have our own crosses to bear…J
  • 2015-2017 (June) is the time frame for the great leveling. I will add more latter on his thoughts on this
  • Inflation is growth of monetary aggregates
  • Deflation is death of debt
  • Velocity of money is the speed a dollar turns over
  • Cessation of the petro-dollar. The POS index is firm right now, even though this is artificial. &^ on the POS is dangerous and Jim believes that the POS will go to 56 just not tomorrow
  • He had high praise for Charles Nenner—Charles expects a significant reversal of the last two years in PM’s. The dollar will enter a bear phase and a topping of markets.
  • Jim spent a fair amount of time on inflation. He was adamant that we not fall for the assumption of no inflation and that Central Bankers and Politicians do not understand “currency induced cost push inflation”

Thoughts on Gold and Silver

Jim thinks you should own some…. J

-Silver will break out first in the next move in gold. He expects that move to be significant. Silver is for trading. It will be exciting. His stack is 75% in PM’s gold and of that 75% 25% is Silver and 75% is gold

-Goldman just gave the producers a buy recommendation, wonder why that is? Having the right juniors will be turbo charging your portfolio

-Jim thinks this period we have been in is uncannily like 73-76 in the last gold bull market

-Gold silver ratio going to be back at historical 10:1 in 2020. However is short term it will probably get to 30:1 and that would be a good time to convert silver holdings to gold

-Bear market in PM’s is behind us and Bull market is ahead of us

Bo made comment that potentially this week (May 1st we could see start of explosive move) based on his cycles and chart work

Bail In

-Based on 1845 British Law, you are a unsecured lender when you deposit money to the bank or brokerage

-Euroland has decided that 8% of banks losses are to be born by the unsecured creditor. Look to how much derivatives the bank has and take 8%, if their capital is not at least that much, then the depositor gets to share in the pain  L

-Jim made a gracious offer that if you e-mailed him he would send a list of banks that took aid in the crisis.

-Jim strongly encouraged people to do business with local credit unions

-2020 is the finish line, Jim thinks the progression for bail ins is Euro, US then Canada.

-Brokerage firms can be subject to bail ins

GOTS (get out of the system)

Jim offered anyone that e-mailed him that he would send them a step-by-step list of how to get your stocks into direct registration

Many of the questions were from people with RSP’s in Canada. For Turdites from around the world these are Registered Saving Plans for retirement. The government allows you to deduct your investment that you put into the RSP and it grows tax sheltered. It is however held by a trustee and as such you can not have direct registration of the securities in the plan. This caused much gnashing of teeth and grumbling when people realized that if they want to GOTS then they would have to deregister the money and pay the tax

BRICS

-BRICS are the wild card.

-The old money families (Rothschild’s and Rockefellers) have controlled things unchallenged since the 1800’s. The BRICS are their first real challenge and the outcome is unknown

-Gold is coming back into the system but does not feel that the currency will be gold backed, just the ultimate judge

-When asked about a one world currency he feels the BRICS have prevented that.

My question was

Q The Euro marks its gold reserves to market each quarter and the USA still carries it gold on the books at $42.22 (assuming it is still there). Will the USA ever mark its gold to market?

A yes and it does not matter if it is there or not. They will mark what they say is there to market

A follow up comment by Jim, take the central banks around the world that market to market and color those countries on a map with a gold pencil and it will be about half. The trend is more moving to mark to market

- Be your own central banker

-The BEAR is awakening, pay attention

THIS and THAT (not sure where to put these ideas)

Bo Polny

-Sequence of events

*** Cycles are there and events must occur to complete the cycle***

  • the reason cycles are there is people do not change, we do not learn and that is why history repeats

Great Leveling

-Implosion of general equity market (late 2014-to end of 2015)

-Commodities lower

-Roll over in banks

-Significant bankruptcies

DOW/ Gold ratio will move to  .75:1 that will be the time to exit gold and buy other assets

Federal Reserve websites have very good info for teaching children about money and currency

TNX- is pleased with the progress, marching to production, cash in bank

Silver66’s closing thoughts

Jim was more focused on cycles of markets than last meeting. He is passionate about protecting your purchasing power from erosion due to inflation. Gold and Silver are the way to do that. Buy till it hurts with the caveat that you must make the level of your ownership commiserate with your understanding and comfort level.

Jim is a gentleman and it was a pleasure to spend 5 hours with him

Hope these notes were of value

Stack till it hurts

Silver66

argentus maximus's picture

@Silver66: A fine

@Silver66: A fine report.

Thank you very much.

tyberious's picture

@silver66

Thanks a million ozs of your choice metal!

Hrunner's picture

Red Phone, 5PM EST, 25 April 2014

BHO:  Hello, Vlad, it's Barack here.  You know, the leader of the most important and most progressive country in the world.  I've got some important new foreign policy speeches to pass on to you I have developed and edited by the Center for American Progress, and also some new sanctions to inform you about.  And to inform you that I am not speaking with you anymore.

VP:  [Female voice]  "You have reached a number that is no longer in service.  Please check the number and try your call again. Thank you."

Dr Jerome's picture

Grat article Argentus

The beehive analogy seems accurate on many levels. What a coincidence that honey is the same color as gold! Does God have a sense of humor, or what?

silver66's picture

Argentus Maximus--Sinclair

AM as I listened to Jim yesterday your name popped into my head several times as he was talking about cycles. I thought that would have been right up your alley. I would have been nice to hear someone knowledge like you ask him about cycles.

Silver66

I Run Bartertown's picture

TY Argentus

"We by the way are the flowers"

Funny analogy. Reminded me of this movie:

Maybe the rash of banker suicides is just bad vibes in the pollen sent out from us flowers.

Hagarth's picture

@EL Gordo - Confirmation

"After the incident, the foreign media reported that "Donald Cook" was rushed into a port in Romania. There all the 27 members of the crew filed a letter of resignation. It seems that all 27 people have written that they are not going to risk their lives. This is indirectly confirmed by the Pentagon statement according to which the action demoralized the crew of the American ship."
 

Read more: http://indian.ruvr.ru/2014_04_21/Russian-Su-24-scores-off-against-the-American-USS-Donald-Cook-5786/

=========================================

Crew complement is:

Complement:33 Officers
38 Chief Petty Officers
210 Enlisted Personnel

Of which I assume 1/2 of these people work on the ship at any given time putting the regular complement at 140 personnel.  Not too sure how to go about affirming the resignations but were I on board and having the opportunity surely a flight home would have been a relief.

DeaconBenjamin's picture

Argentus

Good article.

You state:  I have my own sliding scale which works like this: on the left side of my imaginary measuring ruler I have normal people in all their many forms. Then as I move towards the edge I get to self-centred individuals.

Would it work better to have a spectrum where the normal are in the middle, on one side are the Mother Teresas, and the TFAs on the other?  Then the question is whether a bell curve would apply.  The problem is, the TFAs tend to become prominent and [in]famous, while the Mother Teresas generally live their lives known only to a few.

argentus maximus's picture

But if I add another section

But if I add another section to the left end of my "human ruler" it might be too long to fit into my pencil case!  wink

Good point though, we should value "the good" a lot higher - it helps to push away depression and pessimism and encourages positive actions.

John Galt's picture

JS Finds Lagarde Attractive?

I find it strange that the guy we like to call Santa is attracted to a woman who bears such a strong resemblance to the Grinch who stole Christmas.

Thanks Silver66 for the recap, and thanks AM for another fine post.

DeaconBenjamin's picture

Lagarde attractive

Hey, one man's fish is another man's poisson.

DeaconBenjamin's picture

Setback for the TFAs?

Ukip has surged into the lead in the European election contest despite a bruising week of controversies, a poll revealed today.

Nigel Farage's party recorded 31 per cent support in YouGov research for a Sunday newspaper, three points ahead of Labour, with the Tories languishing in third on 19 per cent.

It is the first time the company has given Ukip an outright advantage in the race, with ballots due to be cast in less than a month.

Ukip surges into lead in European election contest: Poll gives Nigel Farage's party 31% support after bruising week of controversies

On the other hand, considering the source, I'm sure Bollocks would say, well, "bollocks!"

DollarMenu2's picture

Somewhat on topic...

Thanks for the post AM, I like the anacronym "TFA", It sounds like something associated with something nasty.

Here's a TFA illustrated:

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=8f5_1397688607

Urban Roman's picture

Any confirmation of that story?

El Gordo and Hagarth,

Is there any other source of that story than the Russian news source? It doesn't sound quite right..

Silvergunn's picture

Excellent work argentus

Excellent work argentus, nice presentation!

I enjoyed the read this Sunday morning and concur 100%!!!

stackaloha's picture

Great article

Great work once again AM! I love the analogy, it's a great one, I use insect analogies often involving anthills, beehives, spider webs, and my personal favorite: " if every fourth animal in the world is a beetle, perhaps every fourth person is a... Dumbfack!" Lol couldn't resist a nomeansno quote there. Anyways, thanks again sir. Also love the acronym TFA and will begin using it! 

Silver66 thanks for your notes on Jim Sinclair presentation, very good of you!

I learn a lot of bits here in turdville, before I jumped the pay wall I would cruise the public posts and just read comments/recent first to check for the gems/pearls of wisdom or wackiness that are to be found. So big thanks to all.

stack em high and guard them well people! strong hands are patient hands and time will bring the truth to light! Big thanks to turd for this site and all he does too of course!

http://search.yahoo.com/search;_ylt=A0SO8xe6YF1TggEA8mbBGOd_;_ylc=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--?gprid=jNursxZETiWqV_FD04nMnA&pvid=Rn1oATIwOC4WT6_fUQzN4QX3NzAuOVNdYLr_6XE4&p=everyday+i+start+to+ooze+youtube&fr2=sa-gp&fr=ipad

Mantis's picture

The fall of gold

Heres Bloomberg on gold frown

---

For today’s investors, it seems, the metal has been losing its allure. After surging sevenfold during a 12-year bull market — a run matched by only a handful of assets, including U.S. Treasuries and stamps

http://www.bloomberg.com/quicktake/the-fall-of-gold/

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