Worn Out

If I'm tired and frustrated, I can only imagine how you must feel.

There are certainly days when the accumulated burden of the last three years shows itself. I know how the metals have been manipulated and I know why, as well. This helps me to keep my spirits up but there are some days when I feel a bit overrun. Today is such a day. (Perhaps this is a buying signal / trend change? I recall seeing this speculated in the past.)

Today is a Terrible Tuesday. Why? For the same reasons Tuesdays are always Happy or Terrible. The Banks have been big buyers and coverers this past week on the price weakness that has continued since last Tuesday. When The Banks have been buyers, they almost always attempt to cover some of their tracks by selling on Tuesdays. The result is "Terrible Tuesday". Conversely, when the banks are on their heels and selling into rallies all week, they often like to buy some shorts back on Tuesday. We call these days "Happy Tuesday".

As has been the case, the key levels to watch are the lows of last week and gold's 100-day moving average. For the June gold, this is all near $1279. In silver, holding and bouncing from $19.20 remains important.

There continue to be plenty of bearish scenarios being bandied about on the internet and in the media. Though I fundamentally disagree with all of them, I thought I should give you some long-term charts so that you can see where these folks are coming from and then decide for yourself.

Gold is still over $100 off of its Double Bottom lows of last year. Note, too, that the weekly RSI is still above the long-term down trendline that it broke earlier this year. Regardless, there seem to be a lot of folks who are convinced that $1050 is the next stop.

Silver, on the other hand, has broken back below the long-term RSI line and it clearly continues to face steep EE resistance to keep it below the red price trendline. If $19.20 is broken and fails, a retest of the June lows certainly looms as a possibility. Many bears say $15 would be next but, with the cost of production estimated to be near $18, I'm not sure how that would be possible or sustainable. Oh well, fwiw...

And here's a one year chart of the HUI. Remember, I only got interested in these damned things when the HUI broke UP and through 210 back in January. If it fails now and falls back through 210 (which I don't think it will but wtfk?), then you've got to severely reduce or eliminate your exposure again. Watch closely in the days ahead. The 100-day MA near 218 will be your key.

And speaking of silver, our pal SRSrocco has an excellent new report on silver demand, particularly in China. Give this a good read and then further ponder the "$15 silver" question: http://srsroccoreport.com/silver-continues-to-drain-from-the-shanghai-futures-exchange/silver-continues-to-drain-from-the-shanghai-futures-exchange/

More later today.

TF

92 Comments

The_Bernack's picture

First Maybe?

Furst!!!!

Hellfish's picture

You must be so proud.

You must be so proud.

lelford's picture

banksters

banks buy, banks sell at their desire.  the banksters are in control.  so tired of the crap.  when will it end?

Strongsidejedi's picture

no medal today

No medal today

Reviews metals price action

too slow to "enter"

AIJ's picture

Turd / Read "If" By Rudyard Kipling

I read this daily

[IF]

If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you
But make allowance for their doubting too,
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don't deal in lies,
Or being hated, don't give way to hating,
And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise:

If you can dream--and not make dreams your master,
If you can think--and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build 'em up with worn-out tools:

If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it all on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breath a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: "Hold on!"

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with kings--nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you;
If all men count with you, but none too much,
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds' worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,
And--which is more--you'll be a Man, my son!

--Rudyard Kipling

wildstylechef's picture

Sixth will do

I think we are headed to 1277 as they try to break the  previous low

And boom they just achieved it. Same old pattern as it pre warns with a flush below the previous barrier that has been support , here it was 1280 that we achieved at 10:47 , as soon as I saw that I knew we were going lower. Good thing about this is it gives you a warning shot that at plunge is coming and they just bust the March 31st low . Bastards and the really crappy thing is Morgan pre-forcasts their manipulations so they can say "see I told you so" the question is do they achieve the take down to 1150, if they do then this will create such as demand on gold that it will force the default of the physical even with the flush of gold out of the GLD

Hagarth's picture

Jim Willie and his info stream

suggests the RESET has started a few weeks ago.  Volitility is going to happen, not much we can do about it other than take advantage of it.  Sit back enjoy the sun, go for an ice cream sunday and rub your feet in the new spring grass.

freemarkettrader's picture

GC

Somebody just dumped 6000 futures contracts to get gold below $1280

4 oz's picture

Oh----

Oh how I wish my car hadn't needed to be in the shop earlier this month and had more dry powder!

They are just  callin' to me------

American%25201oz%2520Silver%2520Eagle%25

California Lawyer's picture

I'm a Buyer Here, and at $1,200, and at $1,150 . . .

TF: no worries my friend.  Seriously.  Relax.

I'm a trial attorney.  I eat stress for breakfast, lunch, dinner and a late night snack.  If there is no stress, there is no reward.  

Put things in perspective.  Focus.

I have been patiently waiting, hoping with all my might, for price to drop again to their lows, or even lower!  I am going to be a buyer of size, for sure.  

I'm awake, aware, tuned in, and watching intently.  

Said in my best B'rer Rabbit impersonation:

"Oh please Mr. Banksters, don't take down the paper price of the precious metals, please!"

"Buy when there is blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own."  Now, who said that . . . hmmm

It's going to be an epic summer, just saying.

Keep on keeping on TF, it will be just fine.

Outback's picture

DON'T JUMP

Turd

That is what my wife says when she see's me looking down.

Been thru this Down Cycle so many times in 40 years and

it is NEVER easy. When it happens, always thing of all

the WOW stuff I have done and have accomplished. Helps.

So Don't Jump. Hang in there.

terry

unwired's picture

Yep SOS

Metals in lock down mode and treading sideways. Then we get to the first PM fix since last Friday... and down we go.

The relentless manipulative resetting of price lower continues.... its typically $10 increments.

ZH sees the same drill... as well as "it's Tuesday.... stocks go up"

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-22/gold-tumbles-2-month-lows-because-its-tuesday

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-22/remember-its-tuesday

Strongsidejedi's picture

@TF - on Belgium

@TF

Any thoughts on the increasing position of Belgium as a holder of US Dollars/Treasuries?

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a1de1546-c489-11e3-b2fb-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2zd6baNaI

Perhaps this was already discussed on the board, but the story is a big deal.

Another sign of international financial warfare

quoting the FT story:

According to US Treasury data released on Tuesday, Belgium’s holdings of US debt rose by a further $30.9bn during February, to reach $341.2bn.

Since last August, Treasury debt attributed to Belgium by official US data has surged from $160bn – and this rapid growth means that the country, with a gross domestic product of $484bn, presently ranks after China and Japan as the third largest foreign holder of US Treasury debt."

The story goes on to suggest that the Russians may have moved their Sovereign debt holdings.  The story then offers additional explanation:

A further explanation for the rise of Belgium as a big Treasury holder is financial reform that requires the greater use of top-rated government debt as collateral for derivatives trades.

Euroclear, which holds more than €22tn in assets under custody, confirmed that the volume of US Treasuries it holds had “gone up dramatically” in recent months.

Traders say Euroclear is renowned for its sophisticated collateral management system, which helps global investors move bonds to various clearing houses around the world.

US Treasury paper is the largest and most liquid of “safe” collateral used to backstop the financial system. Indeed, since the financial crisis, the amount of outstanding US Treasury debt has nearly tripled to $12tn, creating a vast pool of collateral for the global financial system.

Does Euroclear relate to the LBMA and London fix via the derivatives on gold?  Is the demand for UST's in Europe increasing due to the need to collateralize the derivatives?

Is this a sign of what Jim Sinclair was talking about in his GOTS speeches?

Swineflogger's picture

Thought for the Day

Politicians are people who, when they see light at the end of the tunnel, go out and buy some more tunnel.

~John Quinton

johnchew's picture

Please We NEED MORE Manipulation

Is there any way to get the "manipulators" to crush" gold under $1,200?   I wanna load up.   Gold goes to $1,430 then back to $1,200 and then up to $1,390 back on down to $1,000? Big deal--a trading range.

Imagine if manipulators forced the price of beer and steak ever lower to weed out weak longs. I bet anyone on this blog $1 million that you would NOT complain.

I don't understand why TF is upset by declining prices. You gain more gold per dollar exchanged.  Help me I'm a newbie here.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Yep. Just your regular free market

MODERATOR

Response to: GC
Turd Ferguson's picture

Hi, SSJ

MODERATOR

No doubt and without question this is EU/ECB buying to help The Fed create and maintain the illusion of "taper".

Response to: @TF - on Belgium
Turd Ferguson's picture

It just gets old, John

MODERATOR

I'm fighting a long-term battle here against The Forces of Evil and Darkness.

johnchew's picture

Thanks~!

Excellent advice!

jezfry's picture

Limited longs

If JPM just dumped more contracts to do this then the situation is heating up. They only have limited firepower and need follow through spec selling for this to work. Looks like the opposite so far...

johnchew's picture

Don't fight head on --use their strength against them

Dear TF

Yes, of course. This is the most pre-planned controlled market.     Go long against hedge fund shorts then sell into the rally against resistance and NOW prepare to buy lower (like today give or take a few percent or wait) as producers reduce shorts and spec go more short. Sentiment goes very negative, GOFO stays negative. Screams for $100 gold or $1,000--whatever.  You know you are in a trading range because the sentiment is SO NEGATIVE as price moves lower. I used to trade on the floor of the CBOT so if you want to BUY you gotta make it look like you are a panicked SELLER.  Anyone who uses charts to trade is an idiot. I will take that back if ANYONE can show statistical proof over a large sample size 1,000 observations if ANY charting works to foretell the future.

Miners will be close to bottoming in a few days/weeks. Heard about a suicide recently. His suicide note read, "Please God, do NOT let me buy another mining stock!   I heard he owned Yumana.

Whoa! Gold in the next few weeks starts to steady because of "Indian" buying or "China" demand. Make up the story. Spec chase price higher.  Rally back up. Repeat.

GO WITH THE FLOW.

procog's picture

How I love this site!

@greglp, Thank you for the "If."  We must just hang in there.  We have the correct perspective.  Patience, and keep stacking.  What we have in physical we still have.  It only hurts when we are forced to sell.  Happens to me too often lately and eats my savings.  Being forced to take profits still hurts.  I consider myself fortunate. 

Preparing My Position's picture

Miners holding their ground today

Looking pretty good for those guys.  Still long my JNUG from an avg. of $15.91

Strongsidejedi's picture

@TF - Buying of UST's in Belgium

@TF
no doubt and no disagreement on TPTB buying UST's in Belgium.

one other thing... seasonality in the PM price is clear.

Owtovit's picture

Turd, IF that is not enough try this

23 years ago when embarking on my worldly travels from NZ my Aunt slipped a quote from Ralph Waldo Emerson into my bag....

“Finish each day and be done with it. You have done what you could. Some blunders and absurdities no doubt crept in; forget them as soon as you can. Tomorrow is a new day. You shall begin it serenely and with too high a spirit to be encumbered with your old nonsense.”

.....Kiwi translation "Never let the bastards get you down"

Mickey's picture

IBM Belgium MCD

MCD reported weak revenues again-stock up--see david stockman on IBM expose--stock up

Belgium getting loans from us back door to buy our treasuries. BS accounting

Food inflation not in CPI, gasoline inflation not in cpi, health insuranc eincreased premiums not in CPI

we are at the BS stage of this economic recovery and data sent by government--means they are pulling out all they know how to do

The_Bernack's picture

Revoke emotion through preparation

I have been trading silver exclusively since Q1 of 2011.  Suffice to say, there have been moments throughout this difficult journey where flesh and bone have met the hard surface of drywall and studs.  However, I am thankful as I am a better trader for it.  The key lesson I have learned over this period is one must separate emotion from trading decisions in order to be successful.  Period!  Trust me this is not an easy task; but when implemented will yield terrific profit.

So, how does one reduce emotion when deciding to put money on the line in the hope of price appreciation/depreciation?  How did I?  Preparation accompanied with Technical Analysis.

Prep/Assumptions:

-Metals are manipulated

-If manipulated, by whom?  Who stands to gain?  

-Which direction is manipulation/trend implied? 

-Expect any breakout opposite to the manipulation/trend implied too fail!

-Expect the worst/severe possible price targets to be met!

Technical Analysis:

-Classical Chart methodology - used for pattern recognition and price targets 

-Fibonacci TA - used to identify critical support and resistance perimeters

The aforementioned has enabled me to significantly reduce my emotion when making vital trading decisions.  In turn, I don't see horrific red in my ledger and I visit home goods store less frequently for drywall repair purchases!

Supporting material for technical analysis (which might leave a bad taste in your mouth but  prepare you for what might happen to the price of silver):

www.peterlbrandt.com

http://www.peterlbrandt.com/chart-day-whats-next-silver/ 

I implore you to visit the above link.  This guy called the top in 2011 a week before the slaughter and, again, in 2013.  His technical analysis experience is top tier and I would have made literally millions; which haunts me till this day!

**NOTE/Disclosure:  I do have physical silver/gold, however I have categorized the holdings as long term investments (50+ year time horizon).  Therefore, I am not interested in fluctuations.  As far as trading goes I have a short position targeting $18.75 with a stop at $19.70.  I enjoy this forum as well as TF's technical analysis and I wish everyone a stress free and profit rich journey!          

Mickey's picture

sanctions

apparently the sanctions were developed right after 911--Treasury taking credit for the strategy

But in 2002 and 2003 we did not have nearly as much debt-so we are playing a weak hand--execution is everything and this adm is not executing sanctions well--perhaps against Iran and Syria--oopops npot--but a harder time vs Russia and China--all russia had to do was to sel treasuries. And China can sell in spades.

Japan? they have their own problems.

mel's picture

This chart looking encouraging..

Woyzeck's picture

Wake me up when this is over...

This isn't going to change until it does. Wake me up then.

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