Sudden or incremental
Given the overnight action in metals, perhaps discussing the big picture my be more interesting today.
I bought a house some years back that had an old curved roof barn. The architecture was amazing to behold to a wannabe carpenter like me, with curved roof beams, large oak support beams for the floor. It was probably built in the 1920s. It was dug into the side of a hill with the south side of the foundation exposed so you could walk into the lower level, the north side dug in so you could drive your tractor into the large sliding doors to store your hay. But there was a problem. That hill was saturated with water flowing underground out of hundreds of uphill acres north of the barn. The builders did not install a drainage tile. At some point, the water pressure from the north cracked the 8" thick concrete foundation wall horizontally along its 100 foot length about three feet above the lower level floor. The prior owner had re-supported the floor with vertical beams, but water seeped out continually reminding me of the problem. A contractor gave me a bid of 40K to fix it. We ended up selling the place. We have owned other homes in the American mid-west with cracking foundations and water issues in the basements. It seems to be a hazard of the region. Sump pumps are wonderful for managing the water, but they don't fix the foundation.
Fortunately, I have never owned a home too close to a river, ocean or sinkhole. But when such buildings have their foundations undermined, the collapses are sudden, spectacular and perilous. You can see it coming in many cases, if you pay attention, but there is nothing to be done but evacuate. Perhaps its the fault of the builders? Perhaps a lack of foresight? Perhaps it’s just a hazard of building anything in certain terrain where the view is beautiful, where water is abundant, where crops grow, where making a living is easier than where ground is hard, dry and stable. Certain precautions can be taken with wet ground--giving the pressurized water a route of escape. But too often it seems that the builders wanted to save money and create a quick easy structure and not worry about what would happen 40 years down the road.
In the past week, I have noticed a few posts on the boards about economic collapse, economic decline and how fast it might happen. I thought many more might be wondering the same things, and indeed the burning question in my mind these days has to do with the collapse of our nation's, indeed, the world's, financial system. Clearly, it has been unwisely constructed upon shifting, unstable fiat currencies. The bankers put band-aids on immediate issues, but have set up the economy for trouble later (perhaps sooner). Meanwhile, the architects of these currencies profit greatly and have a means of control that no person should have over an entire economy. And when the erosion forces of time, hidden underground water, or the violent forces of floods, waves or shifting ground inevitably exert their will, these fiat architects have no answers. Collapse is inevitable. But but is our foundation simply crumbling due to pressure & stress, or is the entire hillside being undermined. Will this “collapse” be sudden or incremental.
I am arguing, to anyone who will listen, that the collapse will be incremental, somewhat speedy, and have to avoid several hazards that could bring sudden disaster along the route. Verily I say unto thee, the beginning of the decline may be at hand with the ending of the petrodollar system.
I urge you to watch Jim Sinclar's recent interview if you have not already. He says that "Russia has the dollar by the” uh …
short hairs uh balls? ... uh ... “has the dollar ... right in their hand.” It would behoove us to recall that the US played a part in the collapse of the Soviet Union not that long ago. I can't imagine Putin (or the Russian citizens) has any sympathy for the US. Russia will do what is good for Russia, and that means breaking the petrodollar system. All Russia has to do, says Sinclair, is accept other currencies for their energy products. And Putin is headed to china to likely sign such an arrangement, one that they have been negotiating.
A few years ago, my daughter and I climbed up to the top of a cliff that overlooked my home town. The view was fabulous. but the route back down was hazardous, with slippery places along the trail where, if one fell, you could tumble off and pretend you were Wesley in The Princess Bride yelling "As you wish..." until you were dashed on the rocks below. Our current situation is like that trail. Unstable, downward sloping, with the risk of disaster upon a misstep.
In a best case scenario, the world reserve currency is under attack. The US will see the inflation of commodities as the rest of the world no longer needs to buy dollars to convert their fiat into energy. The petrodollar's days are numbered. The value of dollars will decline. Cost push inflation will create more expensive imports. Increasing oil prices will increase food transportation costs. My rural students squealed about the price of gas when it hit 4.25. They couldn't afford the gas to drive to work and school.
When I say "incremental," I mean quick, definite increments. Not a long slow decline, but steeper, fairly fast, and fraught with the cliffs of banking freezes, war, grid shutdowns, food scarcity due to transportation shutdowns, rioting & martial law. I can't see rioting in the US being widespread. the first few riots will be met with a very heavy hand and the images of police quelling the action promptly will be splashed all over every media outlet. I bet DHS and the police are itching to try out their new gear!
The US is treading a narrow steep narrow trail, with Russia's goad at our backs. But Russia and China don't want the US and the West to completely collapse, which would not be in their best interest. They want and need a stable world economy. They want the west to lose the wealth and power to them. They want to see the west's standard of living decline while theirs rises.
But these sociopathic, power-lusting, greedy, central bankers have created an untenable monetary system that is failing the citizens of the world. Their plan, the IMF Code of Reforms that will create the SDRs--the new international world reserve currency, their plan may stabilize things for a while, but the foundation is still in need of great repairs. Indeed, the waves are undermining it as I type. I am NOT convinced that greedy IMF-led bankers will man-up and do what is needed to create real stability. As I understand it, the SDR will be 25% backed by gold. Will that be sufficient to stabilize the 50% backing of fiat? Or is this like Nebuchadnezzar's statue with feet made partly of iron and partly of clay.
I have noticed that in spite of their high intelligence and shrewdness, sociopaths do not show extended foresight.
Well that's my theory. A quick steady decline (6 months to a year after the petrodollar is broken) with many risks that could bring on a fast collapse. I am hoping that this thread might test this theory with a sensible rationale and evidence. I am also wondering if Turdville readers actually have some kind of consensus.
By the way, My wife's sister is married to a City of Phoenix policeman--25 year veteran of the force. He and his comrades have been trained to deal with rioting recently. He had ridiculed his wife for a couple of years about her conspiracy theories and prepping, but a year ago he told her to "keep prepping." For her birthday last week, he bought her a pink assault rifle and encouraged her to use it if needed.
By the other way, I think my efforts to build cheap solar panels have been successful. The beta tests have been positive. I'll share more in a later post. The quick report is that my concerns were overblown and it was much easier to solder the cells together than I expected. However, paying $1.25-1.50 per watt for solar capacity may be the better alternative.
Buy gold my friends, it may become scarce before we know it.