Space, Time, Nathaniel and The Gold Market

I was child of the 1960s, which means that during the 70s I was in my teens. Like “the Curate’s Egg” There were good and bad parts to that decade. One of the good parts was that the genre of science fiction exploded from a tiny thing into a publishing deluge, and that was accomplished in the main by the emergence of a group of very gifted authors.

Arthur C. Clarke, Brian Aldiss, Robert Heinlein, Isaac Asimov, Philip K. Dick, Poul Anderson, Frank Herbert, Ursula LeGuin, Harry Harrison all come flashing to mind in an instant, in this regard.

The movie industry seems to still find much to produce from among the collective creative writings of these prolific authors, so great was their contribution of innovative ideas.

I especially appreciated the short story form of science fiction. This was demanding upon an author, because for each story an new reality, universe, planet, society, characters and plot had to be created. I’m sure writing a longer story would have been easier, though of course characters would have had to have more depth. But I really appreciated the freshness of the short story form, with every chapter of a book a whole new scene, different from the  last.

I want to give a special mention to Brian Aldiss just now. He was a UK based author and editor of other authors’ anthologies of short stories, and a master of his craft.

In 1971 Aldiss wrote “Space, Time, and Nathaniel”. This book, in a time when acronyms were reserved for long names only and 3 syllable words were uttered without shortening became affectionately known as STAN. I think it was Aldiss himself who started that in an interview or public appearance.

The artwork which was in vogue at the time for these kind of books was stylish, even cultish, and fascinating. STAN was a good example:

The keynote short story in this book, of the same title, was about an artificially engineered creature called “T”. T was one of several similar creatures, each with a single letter for a name, made with only one purpose in life: to travel through space, and back in time, and reach the solar system wherein mankind lived on Earth prior to civilization, and destroy it completely. You see an alien race was battling man in the distant future, and losing, and figured out the best way would be to use the stratagem explained. So T and his comrades did their thing, some failed, some didn’t, and their objective was achieved as they went out in a suicidal joy of achievement. The future changed utterly from that point forwards but somehow things didn’t work out so well for their creators, later, in the future time and distant place from which they embarked upon their mission.

When will I get to the point and what is it this time? smiley  After all this is supposed to be about trading in gold, or something connected to it, right? Well, the first point is this, Aldiss wrote one of the first stories about “timesliding” without which we would never have enjoyed Michael J Fox’s Marty and Christopher Lloyd’s  Doc in Back To the Future many years later. And timesliding is somehow a fact of life for traders in financial markets every day of their lives, but little appreciated for what it is.

Let me explain:

The average person learns a fact or piece of knowledge, accepts it’s veracity, and files it away. All future events are interpreted in the light of the fact which is now a part of the framework for interpreting new situations from that point onwards.

Maybe you already begin to get a certain vibe about what happens when we are persuaded by misinformationists and propagandists to accept and internalize faulty facts which form into flawed frameworks to judge new situations, and how to react to them.

Anyway to get back to the timesliding subject one last time: to alter the past would alter the future flowing from that past, and the present and future would suddenly change into a different alternate future because of that intervention in the past. This would time/space to “slide” into a different time/space which was basically the same world but with a different history, and a future which was the one that favoured “the other guy”, though nobody would be aware that their lives had changed for the worse.

That was fiction - but this is very real:

George Orwell played with this concept by suggesting that the past could be simply re-written, and that was sufficient to change the present and future. And he certainly had a point. Edward Bernays made a living out of investigations into and promotion of the manipulation of peoples’ view of realities and society to create a new future which favoured the masters behind these manipulations.

Now let us look at life for market traders

First I would wish that half the readership do not switch off at this point saying something like “that doesn’t apply to me, I’m an investor not a trader” or something like that. This does apply to you very much as you will soon see. It matters not if you are a short term trader or a longer term trader, and embrace the word trader and stop pretending an investor is different.

So there I and you are in the market, imagine that we are both in a long position and believe that due to our differing criteria it is a bull market and we are going to sell at a higher price, that asset which we have already bought at or about the current price.

So imagine if you will, that you are long Ferrari and I am long Maserati which are stand along company common stocks just for our example. A news item hits the wires that Maserati has made a fantastic engineering breakthrough which will provide a significant advantage in the future. Let’s say nobody knew this already (!!!) and it was real fresh news (!!!!!) so the markets discount it. The price for Ferrari falls and that of Maserati rises. OK so far with this imaginary world?

But tomorrow, another fresh undiscounted news item emerges. This time it says that 5 years ago Maserati infringed upon a patent owned by Ferrari and Ferrari are taking their opposition to court over this for 10 years earnings with high likelihood to win. What happens, the reverse of the previous day. Maserati falls and Ferrari rises today.

This second event was different from the first, in that the event happened in the past. Moreover although it happened in the past it had no effect at all, until this very day, and then the future switched into a new future as if there was a timeslide.

Now how can a trader/investor prepare for this? They can't prepare! Nobody can. They must just get on and live with it. They accept the fresh news and look to the fresh expected outcome to create a fresh valuation of all assets concerned.

But what the trader does is different from the ordinary person in the street. The trader in an instant junked the previous known paradigm, substituted the new one instantly, and began to walk forwards into the future without hesitation. The average person wants to stick with their previous notion of how the world was, and evolve into the new world. But price does not wait. The revaluation of the asset is instantaneous upon discovery and receipt of the knowledge.

It's a good idea to get rid of the old fixed framework of interpretation of facts when  faced with a new reality -  faster than those around you.

So when you listen to the news there are a few questions that matter:

Is it discounted already (almost certainly was before you heard it!) ? Are there more people remaining, with unadjusted mindsets who will have to buy or sell to adjust their positions (who will drive the revaluation further than it’s already gone)?

Is this timeslide done and dusted already, or are there more ramifications to flow from it? If so, what do I do about that right now? What remains that is undiscounted by other players, and what will their actions still to be taken, buying, selling, do to the price? That decides the size of the price move still to come.

Argentus Maximus

The author posts daily commentary on the gold and silver markets in the TFMR forum: The Setup For The Big Trade. More information about the author & his work can be found here: RhythmNPrice.

http://brianaldiss.co.uk/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Bernays

http://www.amazon.com/Space-Nathaniel-Brian-ilson-Aldiss/dp/B0000CJMT0/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1394466588&sr=1-1&keywords=space%2C+time+and+nathaniel

49 Comments

treefrog's picture

furst!

happy monday, worker bees!

sengfarmer's picture

ribit, ribit

2?

redwood's picture

Am I third?  This is truly a

Am I third?  This is truly a first for me!  Great post argentus.  The makings of a good diagnostician!

ivars's picture

This was a good one AM!

This was a good one AM!

boomer sooner's picture

Thanks AM

Have a post half scribbled and my phone browser screwed up. Argggggggg.
Happy Monday All!

sierra skier's picture

Growing up in the 50s

We enjoyed Edgar Allen Poe. I was always a fan of Sci-Fi.

My time slide tells me to hold gold and silver.

Great post AM

Turd Ferguson's picture

Really interesting post

MODERATOR

Thanks, AM!

Nana's picture

dg

That EO tries to encompass everyone by using semantics on linguistics.

Most people do not know/understand that executive orders are meant only to direct those working under the executive branch aka federal employees.

And to add insult to injury most people do not know/understand legal definitions. What a word means to most is NOT the legal definition of the word used by the government. They do this on purpose to keep the truth hidden in plain sight.

Words to look up:

person

individual

corporation

entity

subject to the jurisdiction

United States person

http://dirtyunclesam.com/personcorporationpage-1028/

Had to laugh at this part as it is very telling:

Sec. 10. This order is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, or entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person.

http://dirtyunclesam.com/

argentus maximus's picture

Re: It’s Official: Platinum and Palladium Have Broken Out

That's nice to know the rest of the world is catching up  Dstage smiley

From Setup thread on 26th February if anybody wants to check:

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/387108#comment-387108

And I advised RhythmNPricers of this way back on January 9th. (RNP#98)

argentus maximus's picture

@boomer sooner:  Hate that!

@boomer sooner:  Hate that! I'll look forward to reading it later.

@sierra skier:  Aaah Poe! Good stuff. I grew into that after I think. Do you remember Robert Bloch's stuff?

@Turd : Thanks. It's appreciated!

AM

argentus maximus's picture

Private Equity getting into the stratosphere

I'd like to draw this well grounded lady's comments to Turdites:

What she says is not to be taken lightly.

woofwoof's picture

Woo Hoo Palladium

I've been saying that palladium is the metal of the future.  Ben stacking since $300 per oz.  Catalytic converters, water desalination, space travel, Hydrogen fuel storage, cold fusion (maybe) all will need palladium.

Nick Elway's picture

Quantum Physics ERP demonstration

Thanks for your post.  Timesliding ...maybe not just fiction..

From Cosmic Trigger, Robert Anton Wilson.  One of the results of the Einstein-Rosen-Podolsky demonstration  is that if quantum mechanics is true, then Objectivity fails and/or locality fails.   If Objectivity fails and the multi-verse is real then every quantum decision/collapse point could put you in a different universe.  Time travel could happen without paradoxes.

http://www.principiadiscordia.com/downloads/00%20Cosmic%20Trigger%20Vol%20I.pdf

(page 215 of the pdf)

Quote:

ERP and Bell's Theorem

The flow-chart on the following page, by Saul-Paul Sirag, represents the main problems in quantum theory and the directions of current speculation.

The Einstein-Rosen-Podolsky demonstration (ERP, for short) indicated that, if quantum mechanics is true, some particles are in instantaneous contact even if at opposite ends of the universe.

woofwoof's picture

Silly Note I wrote to myself 15 years ago palladium/hydrogen.

A Self Sufficient Fuel Station for Air and Hydrogen Powered Engines

A major hurdle to the production of air and hydrogen power engine is a good supply of cheap electricity. I came up with the idea to use compressed air to generate power and electricity. The idea came to me while using my air-powered wrench to unbolt lug nuts. The problem is that if you have to use energy to compress air then the process wouldn’t be cost effective. However if you were able to compress air for free or virtually free, then using compressed air to produce energy would be feasible.

Here is how it works. Air is compressed in a piston or bladder driven compression cylinder. The cylinder moves up and down, each stroke compressing the air into a collection chamber, when the storage chamber reaches a predetermined pounds per square inch (PSI) then the compressed air is released to power tools or in this case a car.

My plan is to develop a compression chamber that is approximately 24 inches wide by 8 inches high by 16 feet long. This cylinder is capable of compressing air on the up and the down stroke. This unit is then placed into a strategic location on the roadway. When a car drives over the compression chamber, the weight of the vehicle compresses the air. Thus, the millions of cars driven on our highways are compressing air for virtually free.

Now imagine this scenario. A beta test power station can be built at the alien checkpoint on I-405 between San Diego and Los Angeles where an average annual northbound traffic is 315,000 cars per day. This is the checkpoint where 8 lanes of traffic suddenly turn into 32 lanes for vehicles to slowdown for visual inspections. In each of the traffic lanes, compression chambers are placed on rollers into the road surface, similar to a speed bump (4 inches above and 4 inches below). Each lane will contain 100 compression chambers spaced 15 yards apart. 32 lanes will give you 3200 chambers. Each car traveling over this stretch of the freeway will produce 400 compressions. The average weight of a car is about 3000 lbs. The 315,000 cars will turn out 126,000,000 compressions per day. Adding compression chambers to the south bound traffic will double the number of compressions to 252,000,000 per day. Approximately 2.8 million vehicle trips are taken on LA’s roads between 7 and 8 AM every week day. (2002 data)

The rows of compression chambers are connected by conduits leading to a series of storage tanks. When the compressed air in the storage tank reaches 5000 PSI, a release valve is triggered.

Other power generating sites can be located near places where vehicles are naturally required to slow down such as a train approaching a station, where rail road ties are replaced with compression chambers. Toll booths on the east coast are also good candidates for power stations. Compression chambers in combination with wind, solar, and wave energy can greatly increase the energy demands of this nation.

In addition to producing compressed air to power cars, the compressed air can also be used to produce Hydrogen fuel cells. The current hydrogen production systems cannot meet demands. The Department of Energy is studying the use of steam electrolyzer to produce hydrogen because of its ability to produce pure hydrogen from water. The draw back is that this procedure requires large amounts of electricity to convert water to hydrogen and oxygen. Compressed air can be used to turn a turbine which produces the electricity needed in this process.

The following statement from the Department of Energy summarizes the energy needed to produce hydrogen. The energy required to produce hydrogen via electrolysis (assuming 1.23 V) is about 32.9 kW-hr/kg. A kilogram is about 2.2 lb. For 1 mole (2 g) of hydrogen the energy is about 0.0660 kW-hr/mole. Because a Watt is Voltage x Current, this is equivalent to Power x Rate x Time. The power in this case is the voltage required to split water into hydrogen and oxygen (1.23 V at 25?C). The rate is the current flow and relates directly to how fast hydrogen is produced. Time, of course, is how long the reaction runs. It turns out that voltage and current flow are interrelated. To run the water splitting reaction at a higher rate (generating more hydrogen in a given time), more voltage must be applied (similar to pushing down on the accelerator of a car; more gas is used to make the car go faster.) For commercial electrolysis systems that operate at about 1 A/cm2, a voltage of 1.75 V is required. This translates into about 46.8 kW-hr/kg, which corresponds to an energy efficiency of 70%. Lowering the voltage for electrolysis, which will increase the energy efficiency of the process, is an important area for research.

The current electricity cost to produce 1 Kg of hydrogen is between $1 and $2. The Department of Energy is looking for a target hydrogen market price of approximately $2.50 per Kg, the equivalency of one gallon of gas.

Currently about 40% of the hydrogen produced industrially is used in the preparation of ammonia by the Haber process. Ammonia's primary use is as an agricultural fertilizer. A large portion of manufactured ammonia is also used in the production of nitric acid. Oxidation of NH3 gives H2O and NO2, and the latter can be converted to nitric acid, HNO3.

The world is hungry for sulfur free diesel fuel and this proposed system of compressed air supplemented with solar, wind power, and hydraulic ocean wave generated power to create the electricity needed to separate hydrogen from oxygen may be the easiest and least expensive way to accomplish this.  In addition, the use of palladium as a storage medium for hydrogen fuel cells will pave the way for next generation of energy needs. 
 

elpicador's picture

Ukraine's gold...????

http://www.novorossia.org/news/6076-nochyu-iz-borispolya-v-ssha-strartoval-samolet-s-zolotym-zapasom-ukrainy.html

According to the staff "Boryspil" , before it came to the airport four collector car and two cargo minibus Volkswagen, thus, all the arriving truck license plate missing . Car pulled out of about fifteen people in black uniforms , masks and body armor . Some of them were armed with machine guns . These people have downloaded the plane more than forty heavy boxes ... After that , some mysterious men arrived too entered the plane . All loading was carried out in a huge hurry . After unloading the car without license plates immediately left the runway , and the plane took off on an emergency basis ...
All who saw this mysterious "special operation" airport officials immediately notified the administration of " Boryspil ", from which received a strong recommendation " not to meddle in other people's business" ... Later , the editors called back one of the senior officials of the former Ministry of income and fees, which reported that , according to him, tonight, on the orders of one of the " new leaders " of Ukraine in the United States has been taken all the gold reserves in Ukraine ...

redwood's picture

elpicador

Is there an official english translation or did you do that for us?  If so, thanks.

sierra skier's picture

Robert Bloch's Stuff

I have some vague recall of some of his writings but nothing specific.

abguy4's picture

Hey WOOFER

Care to share any great sources for Palladium?

elpicador's picture

redwood

It's google translation although I have read it first on Polish website.

I have just seen KingWorldNews mentionig it.

Ned Braden's picture

@ Nick Elway re: Robert Anton Wilson

Great link ! This stacker discovered RAW about 30 years ago; love his audio interviews...subtle sarcasm and humor delivered with NY accent.

jolidacrown's picture

Beware of Trojan - JS/Kryptik.AH

redwood's picture

thanks elpicador on both counts

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/3/10_Did_Ukraine_Just_Airlift_Its_Entire_Gold_Hoard_To_The_U.S._Fed.html

Does this not want to make you convulse?  Or should one just say of course what did you expect?  So let's see. For 33 tons of gold Ukraine has just ensured that it will indeed be  protected by the West.  Thanks to dstage emergency measures can now be called at any time, now that the gold of course has been securely swept away. 

I'll  transfer following this story from the setup because it's just not going away and this would be the right thread (or maybe not).  I have tons of paper work to do but can't get to it because this cluster of  microscopic malignant cells may just further mutate into a mass. 

redwood's picture

And then no surprise

"The diplomatic wrangling continued as Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk prepared to fly to the United States to meet Obama and address the UN Security Council.

His first meeting with the US leader on Wednesday should add credibility to Yatsenyuk's untested government and provide Ukraine with a chance to iron out the details of crucial economic relief for its struggling economy.

The White House said Obama will discuss an economic support package that has already seen Washington pledge a quick infusion of more than $1 billion and the European Union promise to issue 11 billion euros ($15 billion) over two years."

So now the gold is in the US' hands, Ukraine gets much needed economic relief, Crimea gets annexed and the job is done.

AlienEyes's picture

argentus maximus

Great piece and very well presented. My only regret is that you apparently didn't read Niven. sad

woofwoof's picture

abguy4

I use NW Territorial Mint for my Pal. purchases. 

Hammer's picture

The Forever War is an ace

benque's picture

Niven

I've been a sci-fi FAN from the late fifties.  Niven is my all-time favorite sci-fi writer!!  I've read everything of his, at least 8 times each.  Good taste AlienEyes!!!  Also loved Asimov's and Clarke's (earlier - up till 1st Rama book) writing!

Can't stand anything Heinlein, since that silly "grok" book that was ohhhhhh sooooooo campy in the sixties.

Edit:  Yeah Hammer, Haldeman's "Forever War" is GOOD!

JY896's picture

Random news about gold

"FBI and U.S. Treasury agents have arrived in Kyiv to aid Ukraine’s interim leaders to uncover the financial crimes of the government of ousted President Viktor Yanukovych in an effort to repatriate billions of dollars.[...]

According to Ukrainian officials more than $20 billion of gold reserves may have been embezzled and $37 billion in loans has disappeared.  In the past three years more than $70 billion was moved to offshore accounts from Ukraine’s financial system." --- Voice of America

The interesting thing about this is that $20B = 14,925,373 tr. oz. (@$1340/tr.oz.) = 464.23 metric tons.

World Bank figure for total reserves if Ukraine, incl. gold (2012): $24.55B

World Bank figure for total reserves if Ukraine, MINUS gold (2012): $22.655B

So that puts their gold holdings at ca. $2B = 1,492,537 tr.oz (@$1340/tr.oz.) = 46.4 metric tons, which is a little more in line with other estimates of gold holdings for the country (WGC estimate from Dec. 2013: 41.7 tons)

Some other sources quoting this fantastical $20B in gold include the Daily Mail and Financial Times.

Anyone else see a problem with this math problem?

Syndicate contentComments for "Space, Time, Nathaniel and The Gold Market"