Not Over By A Longshot

As things continue to worsen, geopolitically and economically, are you really surprised? Are you preparing accordingly?

Jeez, I don't even know where to start but it's late and I've got to start somewhere. First, I have to tell you where I've been...

I don't know if you've noticed, by my Wednesday morning posts always come in late. The reason is a New Year's resolution. Every Wednesday morning, I go to yoga with MrsF. Nothing complicated, just "yoga basics". But it's an hour out of the office and, by the time I get rolling on "work", it's usually about 11:00 am EST. Sorry for the delays but...I'm an old man...pushing 50...and I don't want to be an inflexible, hobbling even older man. So, once a week, I enter a room with about 20 moms and retirees and contort myself into all sorts of funny positions. The only guy in the room has to look a little out of place but I've yet to get any questions as to how and why I can afford to be in yoga and not an office somewhere. If all those gals only knew that my real name is "Turd"...

The Crimean Crisis only continues to deepen today and I have no doubt that, despite the prayers and wishes of The American Media, it won't be SPUN and MOPEd away like everything else. And Woody is such an idiot. I've known since 2009 that he is hopelessly incompetent and underqualified for the task and each "crisis" only proves my point. Take this latest. Woody completely paints himself into a corner re Syria last summer, only to have Putin save his bacon with an "offramp". So now Woody, in his arrogance, thinks Putin has made the same mistake and needs a similar "offramp". What a dope. Putin is doing what Putin wants because Putin can. He holds all the cards! And besides, he's only responding to a situation deliberately created by "the West". (the latest: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-05/behind-kiev-snipers-it-was-somebody-new-coaltion-stunning-new-leak-reveals-truth) Can you blame him at this point? Look, I'm no fan of Putin. For all intents and purposes, he's a dictator in a country that likely needs one. But if I was him, I'd be pretty sick of this crap, too.

The U.S. and the EU arrogantly believe that they are "in charge". FOOLS! At a time of their choosing, the Russians, Chinese and the rest of the EurAsain Alliance will completely reset the Global Financial System. "The West" should be working with them, not against them. Instead, western political leaders and central bankers cling to their power in the hopes that tomorrow might be just like yesterday. I can assure you, it won't. Your only hope to survive and prosper is the physical possession of sound money, gold and silver. Nothing else can protect you from what is coming.

So as the American media SPINs and MOPEs their way through another day, you need to be a realist and keep stacking. Just this morning, we got another lousy and awful economic data point, this one coming courtesy of the ADP employment survey. Well below "expectations" and with downward revisions to the previous three months, a realist would take it for what it's worth. But not CNBS, the Bullion Banks and the sell-side analysts. Nope. It's all just "weather-related" and "one-off". NO IT'S NOT YOU LYING SHILLS! The great ZeroHedge summed it all very well and a C&P is below with the link. Please read, understand and comprehend:

"More snow. That is the assessment of Mark Zandi (The Shill) and the ADP Private Payrolls, which just printed at 139K on expectations of a 155K print. But don't worry: the number was pre-spun for idiot consumption, as the 139K was actually an increase from the January 127K. What was not said is that the January number was a massive revision lower from the previously announced 175K. What will also not be said is that the December ADP print was revised lower from 227K to 191K and the November 289K was chopped off and revised to only 245K. Of course, both of those numbers were massive beats at the time, and have now become misses, but who cares: they have served their algo kneejerk reaction purposes. And while the data is complete garbage, and is obviously manipulated and goalseeked (as we have shown before), it should be welcome to the US to know that in February it generated a whopping 1,000 manufacturing jobs."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-05/adp-tumbles-huge-miss-expectations-prior-data-all-revised-lower-winter-weather-blame

Back to The Crimean Crisis...Watch Platinum and Palldium for clues as to whether it's heating up or cooling off as Russia is a significant producer and exporter of both. Both metals have continued to rally yesterday and today while gold and silver have been capped. There's some news for you, huh?!? Whatever. Regardless, take a look at the series of charts below. The blue arrows denote the April 12-15 smashdowns that affected all four. Note, however, where all four are now priced relative to that date. Hmmm. I'm sure the fact that gold and, particularly, silver are lagging so significantly is completely related to supply and demand.

Speaking of silver, March Comex deliveries continue at a brisk pace with 1,576 so far this month. Of those, the JPM proprietary "House" account has stopped 1,071 of them for 67.96% and 5,355,000 ounces of supposedly physical silver. This simply continues the trend that began last summer with the July deliveries. Back then, out of the blue, JPM House suddenly began to hoard Comex deliveries, stopping that month 3,040 of the 3,444 total deliveries. This trend has continued unabated in the time since. If we compile all Comex deliveries since and including December of last year, JPM House has NET stopped 3,864 of the 7,149 total. Now, let's add everything together:

MONTH           JPM HOUSE NET STOPS        TOTAL ISSUES

July 13                            3,040                                             3,444

CME no longer provides data for Aug, Sep, Oct and Nov and I can't find it in my records.

Dec 13                             2,015                                              3,307

Jan 14                              980                                                1,672

Feb 14                             -202                                                  594

Mar 14                             1,071                                              1,576

TOTAL                         6,904                                         10,593 

So, while JPM has been NET SHORT anywhere from 10,000 to 20,000 silver futures contracts on the Comex, they also been taking delivery of nearly 7,000 contracts! Does this not look to you exactly like the old Chinese strategy of dump/pressure the futures market while accumulating the physical commodity?

I mean, for crying out loud, just since July JPM has purchased nearly 35,000,000 ounces of silver!! Over the same time period, the U.S. Mint has sold just over 27,000,000 ounces and they can't keep up! They're rationing, suspending sales and pulling all sorts of other stunts in order to meet demand.

So let me get this straight...over the past eight months, JPM has managed to accumulate more silver than the U.S.Mint has sold. All the while, price has stayed flat and so has JPM hedge book. Remember, Blythe assured us the "JPM never makes directional bets". "That would be wrong" and "we'd never do that". RRRRRRrrrrrriiiiiiggggghhhhhtttttt.......

Again, meh, whatever. All I know is that I bought another 40 ounces just this week...and at a deeply discounted price to reality. If JPM is going to price silver for their own selfish purposes, I might as well play along and take equal advantage.

That's all for now. I'll have a full podcast later because I sure feel like I've got a lot more to say.

TF

55 Comments

Turd Ferguson's picture

And I thought I'd pass this along

MODERATOR

Paul Coghlan sent me this summary from yesterday. He produces these every morning so, if you think it's helpful information, you should try to watch them.

 

2Magic4Us's picture

happy

First

CPE's picture

2nd

amendment is being eroded

wildstylechef's picture

Lawsuit on gold fixing

Scotiabank one of 5 banks facing lawsuit over accusations of gold price manipulation

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Bob Van Voris, Bloomberg News | March 5, 2014 | Last Updated: Mar 5 8:13 AM ET
More from Bloomberg News

A New York gold trader claims the five banks overseeing the London gold fix colluded to manipulate the benchmark.

A New York gold trader claims the five banks overseeing the London gold fix colluded to manipulate the benchmark.

Barclays Plc, Deutsche Bank AG, the Bank of Nova Scotia and two other banks were accused in a lawsuit of manipulating the London gold fix, a benchmark used throughout the $20 trillion market for the metal.

Kevin Maher, a New York resident who says he bought and sold gold and gold futures and options, sued Tuesday in Manhattan federal court claiming the five banks overseeing the century-old benchmark colluded to manipulate it.

Maher’s complaint cites press reports, including a Bloomberg News story last week on a draft paper by two researchers showing what they said were unusual pricing patterns connected to the gold fix. The paper was the first study to raise the possibility that the banks, which also include HSBC Holdings Plc and Societe Generale SA, may have been actively working together to manipulate the benchmark.

Related

Authorities around the world, already investigating the manipulation of benchmarks from interest rates to foreign exchange, are examining the gold market for signs of wrongdoing.

Deutsche Bank, Germany’s largest lender, said in January it would withdraw from the panels setting the gold and silver fixings. German financial markets regulator Bafin interviewed the bank’s employees as part of a probe into the potential manipulation of gold and silver prices. Britain’s Financial Conduct Authority is also scrutinizing how prices are calculated.

Maher is seeking to represent a class of all investors who, from 2004 to now, held or traded gold and gold derivatives that were priced based on the gold fix or who held or traded COMEX gold futures or options. He’s seeking unspecified damages on behalf of the class. Damages may be tripled under U.S. antitrust law.

‘Without Merit’

“We believe this suit is without merit and will vigorously defend against it,” Renee Calabro, a spokeswoman for Frankfurt- based Deutsche Bank, said in an e-mail.

Advertisement

Mark Lane, a spokesman for London-based Barclays, and Juanita Gutierrez, a spokeswoman for London-based HSBC, declined to comment on the lawsuit.

Jim Galvin, a spokesman for Paris-based Societe Generale, didn’t immediately respond to phone and e-mail messages Tuesday seeking comment. Joe Konecny, a spokesman for the Toronto-based Bank of Nova Scotia, also didn’t respond to a message seeking comment.

Miners, Jewellers

The London gold fix is the benchmark used by miners, jewellers and central banks to value the metal. According to the researchers, it may have been manipulated for a decade by the banks setting it.

Unusual trading patterns around 3 p.m. in London, when the so-called afternoon fix is set on a private conference call among the five banks, are a sign of possible collusive behavior and should be investigated, New York University’s Stern School of Business Professor Rosa Abrantes-Metz and Albert Metz, a managing director at Moody’s Investors Service, wrote in a draft research paper.

A spokesperson for Moody’s said Friday that the paper was not a Moody’s research report and Metz was “writing independent of his position at Moody’s and representing his own research findings and viewpoint.”

In February, officials at Barclays, Deutsche Bank, HSBC and Societe Generale declined to comment on the report. Konecny didn’t respond to a request for comment on the report at the time.

The rate-setting ritual dates back to 1919. Dealers in the early years met in a wood-paneled room in Rothschild’s office in the City of London and raised little Union Jacks to indicate interest. Now the fix is calculated twice a day on telephone conferences at 10:30 a.m. and 3 p.m. London time. The calls usually last 10 minutes, though they can run more than an hour.

Gold Bars

Firms declare how many bars of gold they want to buy or sell at the current spot price, based on orders from clients and themselves. The price is increased or reduced until the buy and sell amounts are within 50 bars, or about 620 kilograms, of each other, at which point the fix is set.

Traders relay shifts in supply and demand to clients during the call and take fresh orders to buy or sell as the price changes, according to the website of London Gold Market Fixing, where the results are published. The process is unregulated and the five banks can trade gold and its derivatives throughout the call.

The case is Maher v. Bank of Nova Scotia, 14-cv-01459, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York (Manhattan).

Bloomberg.com

Turd Ferguson's picture

I was about to post that too

MODERATOR

Definitely a story worth following

usk's picture

Turkey grants US warship permission to enter Black Sea

http://rt.com/news/us-warship-black-sea-966/

Turkey has given a US Navy Warship the green light to pass through the Bosphorus within the next two days as tensions in Ukraine’s Crimea region continue to divide world powers.

Turkish sources, speaking with the Hurriyet Daily News on Wednesday, declined to elaborate on the name of the US warship. The same officials told the daily on condition of anonymity that the ship in question was not the USS George H.W. Bush nuclear aircraft carrier as suggested in some news reports, as it did not meet the standards specified by the 1936 Montreux Convention in terms of weight.

2014's picture

Goghlan video.

For me it has not sound,I hope you all can hear it,meaning its my pc problem.

ArtL's picture

China buying about 100x more bitcoin than the ROW

I monitor fiatleak.com, and usually the totals for China are 50 to 100 times the rest of the world. 

lakedweller2's picture

2014

I have sound on the Coghlan video

silver66's picture

Turd you made BMG's newsletter again

SilverSurfers's picture

10th

10th for a top tenner!! MSM, political crises, make hay, GOFOIT. OK, 1350+ by friday. US carrier in the Black Sea? ON THE DECK!!

Just think, BHO can then blame Bush for the Crimea Invasion. Nope, moving towards, is just hype. Last thing an admiral wants is a US heavy carrier surrounded in a tide pool. Since when did BHO become a fleet admiral? The show goes on.

===

The same officials told the daily on condition of anonymity that the ship in question was not the USS George H.W.

http://rt.com/news/us-warship-black-sea-966/

"The ship", singular, is not even serious.

litterbox's picture

Question

At this juncture is it foolish to be buying miners ? Should all capital be directed to physical ? Will we have time to convert our profits from miners into physical ? What's your thoughts ? Curious !!! Thanks...

Nick Elway's picture

Woody IS working with them

Quote:
At a time of their choosing, the Russians, Chinese and the rest of the EurAsain Alliance will completely reset the Global Financial System. "The West" should be working with them, not against them.

What we are seeing makes  sense if Woody works for TPTB,  AND Putin works for TPTB.   Remember the off-mic "I can be more flexible" after I'm re-elected.    We are seeing that flexibility now.  Remember Woody helped disarm the Ukraine.   

Maestro's picture

This is sure to start a fight....

So heres a crazy idea...why don't 50,000 AMERICANS storm the Fed?  Surely they have the same guts as a bunch of Ukrainian / Russians?

Courtesy of Zerohedge:

*PRO-RUSSIAN PROTESTERS ON WAY TO STORM DONETSK TREASURY: TV5 So, apart from the protesters storming buildings and breaking into the Treasury, things are "under control."

tyberious's picture

So heres a crazy idea...why don't 50,000 AMERICANS storm

Fed?

fluoride, Prozac and pharmaceuticals

Maestro's picture

Thats a cop-out.

Thats a cop - out.

I'd say it boils down to cowardice.  While everyone goes on about defending their Second Amen. Rights, nobody remembers WHY they were installed in the first place, and who you need to protect yourself from!

Its time to fight...and its not Putin you need to take down.

Clarki Stomias's picture

Another Good One from Bill Holter

http://blog.milesfranklin.com/the-dirty-little-secret

I especially like the end to this excerpt:

"Mr. Putin will do whatever it is that he chooses because he knows that we cannot do anything in return.  Nothing militarily nor financially.  Is he “bluffing?”  I don’t think so because he looks to be actually “re assembling” the old Soviet Union.  In my opinion, he is doing this out in the open and daring the U.S. to respond or retaliate because he knows that if we act at all, we end our own charade.

Russia also launched a test ICBM missile yesterday.  Why?  I truly believe that it’s because of the “dirty little secret” that everyone knows but no one (in the West) wants to admit and few are willing to talk about …we are running and for all intents and purposes have run out of gold.  There is also speculation that Saudi Arabia which had stored much of their gold in London has had their stash “borrowed” and even that is now gone.  Is this true?  Could be but we will know the answer to MANY questions the moment that “someone asks anyone for payment for anything in gold.”  We will find out who has it and who doesn’t.  We will immediately see a new pricing structure and the “issued” fiat of whoever it is that has no gold …will no longer be accepted."

Indeed.  Nice little corner the US leadership has managed to back themselves into through the last 20 years of policy and "strategery".

Patriot Family's picture

It's complacency.

Sorry, its not cowardice.  It's complacency.  As long as people are fed, have a roof over their heads, cable TV and a cell phone they will be compliant.  That said there is a strong undercurrent of dissatisfaction with the way the US constitution is being dismantled, piece by jagged piece.  

I would not be surprised if there are more than a few groups of patriots with the power and means working on a way to restore order to our political and financial system.  We just haven't seen a catalyst strong enough to garner them support from the general population.  That would be absolutely necessary.  It's heartbreaking to see a one-of-a-kind political system like ours being dismantled...

Patriot Family's picture

Mike Rowe for President

And as part of the package I want to see Mike Rowe elected president.

SteveW's picture

Leaked tape

Fascinating how this 21st Century conflict is being played. What a contrast to 19th Century "dispatches from the front" when the technology exists to spy upon and tape phone calls and then release them on the net.

I wonder who's at the bottom of this. A subgroup in NSA, GHCQ, the Soviet equivalent. I hope the latest gets plenty of exposure in Kiev where it really matters.

Seems like Putin keeps getting more Aces for his diplomats.

donduderino's picture

Talking about Palladium,

Talking about Palladium, check this out: stuck in pennant from 2011 till today and  now BREAK OUT 

 
SS121's picture

The tree is bearing fruit

Frank Jr: ...tell em i gotta do this one last thing, then i'm good to go

...popcorn.jpg ?

murphy's picture

Silver chart

Just opened up TFMR for the first time today and looked at the silver chart. You know what I thought I saw?

Like someone taking a lie detector test and telling the biggest lie the world has ever known. Apropos, don't you think?

Or in the beginning of this scene JPM is the casino

gipsytrees's picture

Off shore PM storage

Hey Turd I was wondering if you personally have any metals stored outside the US (or anyone else for that matter)? Really enjoyed your interview with the Scottsdale mint guy. I know many in the PM community abide by if you can't hold it you don't own it. But, with that being said I feel it's important to have options. I mean if USSA goes full stasi it would be hard to lug around a significant amount of silver if you were trying to get the hell out. Idk just so many things to consider when trying to mitigate risk. What are you overall thoughts on moving metals to Asia? I don't think there's any reputable private vaults in South America but that would also be of interest. I would really appreciate any input from someone who has explored this path and/or has metals currently stored abroad. Thanks for all you do. I Enjoy your site and everyone's inputs & perspective.

wildstylechef's picture

FP 1ST article is now reposted on FP re GOLD MANIPULATION

But they are claiming it was first posted by Bloomberg. I copied and posted the originally here http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/386674#comment-386674

Here is the header for their article

Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d5e00172-9b14-11e3-946b-00144feab7de.html#ixzz2uFvcGLfu

here is the repost claiming its from Bloomberg

http://business.financialpost.com/2014/02/28/london-gold-fix-study-indicates-decade-of-bank-manipulation/

THEY WILL DENY UNTIL THE VERY END JUST AS ALL  THE BANKS ARE NOW DENYING THE MANIPULATION. IN THE END THE TRUTH ALWAYS COMES OUT.

4 oz's picture

Gold Price Manipulation IT'S REAL!

ArtL's picture

Is Bill O-Reilly really a jerk?

I vote yes after seeing this video clip

4 oz's picture

London Price Fix Lesson - OWN MORE GOLD.

California Lawyer's picture

I'll Have Something Later on the Latest Gold Price Fixing Lawsui

I'm taking depositions in a case, so no time right at the moment to weigh in on the latest lawsuit.  Give me some time and I will have my analysis up tonight.

CaL

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