Pre-Fedline Open Thread

With just fours hours to go until "the most important FOMC headlines in years", here's a thread to enter your predictions and discuss the consequences.

Of course, ole Turd is on the record stating that a BLT (Bernank Legacy Taper) is about a 50/50 probability. What I'm 100% certain of is a rally once it's all said and done. Why? There are just two scenarios:

  1. A BLT. Something like $10B/month, dropping ongoing QE∞ all the way back to just $75B/month or $900B/year. The pre-programmed algos will SELL at 1:59:55 and gold will puke back down to $1210-1215 before immediately reversing and squeezing the shorts.
  2. No taper. Price immediately soars through $1250 and on toward $1260. Rallying further this evening and into tomorrow.

Hmmm. Looks like, either way, prices head higher from here, not lower. Again, when everyone is on the same side of the trade, everyone is bound to be wrong. In this instance, everyone is short, expecting a taper and expecting gold to drop through $1180. You should expect the opposite.

TF

176 Comments

pm_newbie's picture

furst

my first first

tmosley's picture

Number Two

No idea, but I know that I am going to get screwed.

I have to sell some silver to cover an unexpected expense by tomorrow :(

DayStar's picture

Thurd

Good luck to all.  Metals flat before the storm.

If they do taper, interest rates will rise and blow up the whole system.  Just Bennie thinking about tapering blew up the market.  The real deal would be a killer.  He will not taper yet.  Janet will do that later.

DayStar

murphy's picture

prediction

I'm going with down to 1203 and back to 1235.

Who cares about silver, it's not money. Ha ha sarc!

Turd Ferguson's picture

The latest from Jim Quinn

MODERATOR
ReachWest's picture

Depressing

Ever since the time I was a wee fellow - I have associated BLT with a yummy Bacon Lettuce Tomato sandwich - maybe between a couple of slices of toasted bread - excellent.

Unfortunately Turd has utterly destroyed the acronym for me. I now hear BLT - and I think of Bernanke, the Fed, lunatic monetary policy and my pavlovian response is quite the opposite of what it used to be. Ahh the travails of being a loyal Turdite.

As far as what the Fed does today - it doesn't matter - the sytem is thoroughly and permanently fubar'd, IMO.

Mr. Fix's picture

Another day, another slam down:

Why would today be any different?

The banking cartel is clearly still in charge, and will remain so until further notice.

 I'm not big on predictions lately, but what the heck, you asked for it.

After the big slam down,  it will return to where we started, but these markets are completely range bound until the system completely collapses.

abguy4's picture

Volatility, Volatility, Volatility

Volatility that feels like whiplash if you watch too closely. We're bouncing across the bottom here -- some more.

You gotta hold yur breathe if you wanna survive the keel-hauling.

TPTB are getting their G.D. ducks in order, and this is what it looks like.

I don't think for a moment that they are not aware of the thin market around Xmas - and they'll use it.

Hang on troops and Happy Holidaze to all.

DayStar's picture

David Stockman's Quote in Jim Quinn's Article

Jim Quinn quoted David Stockman who said:

Nixon’s estimable free market advisors who gathered at the Camp David weekend were to an astonishing degree clueless as to the consequences of their recommendation to close the gold window and float the dollar. In their wildest imaginations they did not foresee that this would unhinge the monetary and financial nervous system of capitalism. They had no premonition at all that it would pave the way for a forty-year storm of financialization and a debt-besotted symbiosis between central bankers possessed by delusions of grandeur and private gamblers intoxicated with visions of delirious wealth.”  -David Stockman – The Great Deformation: The Corruption of Capitalism in America

Stockman's quote is pure BS, because they knew what they were doing.  Nixon was a tool of the Rockefellers and they were striving for a global economy without America as the chief player, and taking us off the gold standard was the way to do it.  It gave the Fed complete control of the money supply, and like Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild said, "Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws".

DayStar

Turd Ferguson's picture

Never more true than now...

MODERATOR

"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws".

Orange's picture

Santelli

You have got to watch this Santelli! One of his best.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-18/real-numbers-behind-americas-phony-recovery

scroll down to see video

why do I even bother's picture

CAST IRON FORECAST

Gold will go up, down and stay at approximately the same level as it is right now. (But not necessarily in that order)

Think about it - Taper, no Taper, more Taper - the US economy is still forked up, the Gold market is still manipulated, and the Chinese have still taken all the shiny stuff out of the vault. That thar Taper don't gonna change anything much.

Anyhow, if the price tanks, I am all the less likely to be tempted to 'take a profit', cash it in and spend it. Long may it languish a bit more, while I quietly hoover it up (not on the dips, but as the monthly budget allows).

My Quote for the Day comes from the lips of the Captain of the Titanic - "Where the hell is all that water coming from?!"

ivars's picture

UST, interest rates will

UST, interest rates will rise, so gold run has not ended. Raising rates will not bankrupt USA,  and Japan as they will - after 2-3 years , japan may be earlier-actually almost now-  devalue their money moving from debt based money = interest on capital based to government printed=capital based, and pay off debts easily.

Government issued or capital based paper money lasts 6-7 years ( e.g. assignats) - so the time line is as follows:

2014-2016- gold price rises due to raising interest rates, USG spends the money obtained by defaulting on FED, under current debt ceiling level . USD is strong

2017- 2023- USG prints money directly, interest rates do not matter, USD loses strength in 6 years from max to 0. Gold is either banned or rises to infinity

So the time table for USG is to get > 50000 tons of gold to back up USD till 2023 latest. Better of course earlier as last years of dying currency are not pleasant. There  might be a war ( like Napoleonic wars in 1804-1814)  which delayed collapse of British pound. after it became over leveraged in 1797.  In 1821, Britain somehow obtained gold to back pound - that was first gold standard. So USG needs to do the same, may be with war included in the package, to negotiate, rob, steal, cajole these huge amounts of gold from private wealth bankers into backing USD. 

With war, USD can be sustained as we see from British example, for extra 18 years! So if war begins in around 2020 ( it can not begin before China is strong enough but it must begin before China is really strong), USG gets time till maybe 2038-if it wins. 

You may call it chaos, but its a very clear strategic path of action. It will be messy after 2017, and very messy after 2020. 

Alternative is to develop bitcoin or similar as alternative to gold and back USD by it... Or transcend national boundaries in monetary issues..again, gold is world currency and has always been. Bitcoin could be, but will it? If it poses threat to gold, it will be destroyed many times . It needs really powerful backing of a state that has NO DEBTS. China then more likely then USA.

unwired's picture

A worthy listen

This is good stuff. So many advisors out there that have been prudently allocating PM's for client portfolios... and getting screwed over. Dave visited China recently in some conference talking relating to PM's. So he digging for explanations as to what is really going on.

Says looks like China will be trading gold 24x7 in 2014.

He estimates.... not sure how... that China will own the gold market by 2018.

http://mcalvanyweeklycommentary.com/?utm_source=McAlvany+Weekly+Commentary&utm_campaign=6a2e588e5e-MWC-+China%2C+the+Cure+for+Lower+Gold+Prices&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c69b40e912-6a2e588e5e-246074350

SilverX3's picture

I predict that...fwiw

I predict that if the following scenarios will occur:

1. If gold price is taken down toward $1210-1220 between 12-2 pm, then NO TAPER

2. If gold price stays around $1230 as it is currently, then TAPER IS ON

ivars's picture

With this bond purchase share

With this bond purchase share BOJ and Japan is very close to government money printing. They are moving from debt based money to government printed, in fact. That means yields can stay low as they pay off all new debt, but currency issuance is so fast that it has less then 10 years left to evaporate..Yen is going to move UP faster and faster over time. 300USD JPY target of Bass is not an exaggeration. 

Quote:

 While no decision will be made until the central bank has more time to assess price trends, the current pace of asset purchases -- equivalent to 70 percent of new government-debt issuance -- isn’t a limit for many officials, according to the people, who asked not to be named as the talks are private. Some officials highlight the size of the market offering plenty of room to buy more, according to the people. The BOJ in September reported that it held 15.4 percent of the 969 trillion yen ($9.4 trillion) of government bonds outstanding.

I went long USD JPY prior to FOMC, i.e. now. There could be some wild swings that would hit my stops, otherwise I see no way to not earn depreciating Yens on leverage by doing this. Sooner rather then later. 

The fact that - if Senate votes on budget after FOMC there will be taper. Besides, here is a warning issued yesterday to Yellen personally to behave as agreed:

Quote:
Yellen, who nonetheless is expected to win Senate confirmation this week, has stirred McConnell's concerns "about her commitment to the most important job of the central bank - maintaining the purchasing power of the dollar. After years of federal stimulus, we need a Fed chairman who is unquestionably committed to a strong dollar," McConnell said in a statement.

So much about coming deflation. USA deflates, Japan inflates. Must be synchronized as Japan inflation will send yen abroad as people will try to save its value- e.g. in US bonds or stocks and of course USD which will need life support very soon- not yet.

Nigel Black's picture

@Orange

That, my friend, is epic.

One of the best rants I have ever heard.  Maybe he is a closet Turdite?

DayStar's picture

RE: Perfect Storm

DG, as long as they can sell gold into the market to cover their shorts, they will maintain control and they will not get crushed.  If they got more than a million tonnes of gold during WWII by giving treasury bills in exchange for bullion and now they will not pay back the gold, then they have plenty to pour into the market for a long time in exchange for mortgages on the land and the nations' tax streams.  The world will be bought with gold as the Sibyls predict.  The gold is going to China where some of the treasuries were issued, and maybe that is why the gold is going there: to pay off some of these treasury note debts to elitist note bearers.  At any rate, China is part of the cartel, and the gold is going into the direct grasp of the globalists.  China does not end up as the head of the new order, but the gold will certainly go to the man who emerges as its head.

DayStar

WineGuy's picture

At 2pm today Ben will announce ...

that do to the ever improving economy we will taper from $200 billion per month down to $170 billion per month. CNBC Steve "Asshole" Liesman will proclaim the fed has fixed everything. They just announced a 17.6% taper. Gold will drop like a stone to $750 per oz. All the tin foil hatters will say "wait a minute, the fed just doubled QE" from $85 billion to $170 billion". Old Stevey boy will call nonsense, he will stand by his math, $200 down to $170 is a TAPER. CNBC will get the pom poms out and proclaim all hail Benny. 

Mariposa de Oro's picture

dgstage

I want to believe that Dave guy is completely nuts because if he isn't, well,....well.....crying

unwired's picture

McAlvany

Dave confirmed something toward the end of the podcast that I suspect most of us already knew. The western bankers were universally bearish on gold. He apparently was able to ask the last question of the conference.... to one of the bank analysts. The guy was bearish now...... so he asked him about 3-4 points of time in the previouse bull market.

The bottom line is that these guys don't know shit.... they don't analyze anything.... they look at the chart and extrapolate it forward. That's all there is to it.

So as for right now.... there is only one reason to be bearish... and that's chart.... and bankers don't win rewards for original thinking.

Orange's picture

While we wait

Amazing to watch this woman communicate with a Leopard 

http://sherriequestioningall.blogspot.com/

didier's picture

my desire

I want gold to go to at least 1800 tonight. 

lvhb's picture

Taper or not...

http://www.thesilverhouse.be/zilveren-munten-kopen/   Some of this beautiful coins are now in my pockets.

Hawkman's picture

This.

"After the big slam down,  it will return to where we started, but these markets are completely range bound until the system completely collapses." - Mr. Fix

 
This.
dgstage's picture

This Secret Group Controls the World

A interesting read with some good graphics.

http://beforeitsnews.com/economy/2013/12/this-secret-group-controls-the-world-2579670.html

Here are the top ten transnational companies that hold the most control over the global economy (and if you are one of the millions that are convinced Big Banks run the world, you should get a creeping sense of validation from this list):

1) Barclays plc

2) Capital Group Companies Inc.

3) FMR Corporation

4) AXA

5) State Street Corporation

6) JPMorgan Chase & Co.

7) Legal & General Group plc

8) Vanguard Group Inc.

9) UBS AG

10) Merrill Lynch & Co Inc.

Kerbouchard's picture

Orange

Thanks for posting that.  I especially like his last words:

"They take a press release from the Federal Reserve and they think it was written by God."

Exactly!  This blind belief in "authority" is a manifestation of the fear that motivates the masses.

Even in my salad days I was appalled by this behavior.  Who the hell is the Fed to decide interest rates?  What on earth has this to do with a free economy?

Rushstyx's picture

The FED will not taper

That is my prediction and I have had a poor hit rate in the last 3 years.angry

I say this because the US 10yr bond is too close to 3% and Benny Bedwetter doesn't want to upset the markets before he goes. One last hurrah for xmas to the 1%.

Personally I would like the printing to stop. Let's see reality hit home. Instead of being gold positive the printing has had the opposite effect. 

As for gold who knows what JPM et al have up their sleeves? What does concern me is why JPM let the specs off the hook back in June/July when their position was similar to today's. Will they just repeat the show or is this the beginning of a launch in metal prices?

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