A General Update

If you frequent this site, you deserve a freebie every now and then. Here's a general update.

Here are the items of note that you should be following:

  1. JPM continues to vacuum up nearly all of the December Comex deliveries. Thus far this month, The JPM House account has stopped 4,284 of 4,469 December gold deliveries (95.9%) and 1,820 of 2,980 December silver deliveries (61.1%).
  2. Just as in July/August and October, when JPM was the primary stopper on the Comex, GOFO rates in London have turned negative. Today marks the third consecutive day of negative rates.
  3. The latest Bank Participation Report showed the most bullish extreme seen yet. The combined position of the 24 U.S. and non-U.S. banks surveyed showed a NET LONG position of 43,369 contracts, UP from 10,254 last month and exceeding by 30% the previous extreme seen in the survey from August 6 when the banks revealed a NET LONG position of 37,434.

Not surprisingly, price has turned...just as it did in July and October. The key going forward will be what happens when price encounters the red downtrend line on this chart. As we move toward the end of the year, this is the only short-term chart that matters.

If you'd like more information and desire to follow along on a daily basis, become a "Vaulter" today. More information, including details of the discount subscribers receive when purchasing TFMR rounds, can be found here:

http://tfmetalsreport.com/subscribe

Have a great day and thanks for reading!

TF

174 Comments

rl999's picture

Furst

hizzah!

TF has been calling many things correctly over the last three weeks or so (bringing back calls of "Witch!"). In addition to that the info has been timely and tradable - there are some turdities sitting one quite a heap of benny bucks based on his very prescient Oil call. He has also discussed other commodities like Nat gas and it's recent surge (along with support, resistance, and possible trades), as well as the highly abnormal (record breakingly so?) shenanigans in copper.

It looks very like that the magic of the first "turd's bottom" has been repeated as well.

For the price of one fast food meal a month this service is highly undervalued and I really don't think anyone else on the web matches either the amount of articles or podcasts, let alone both.

While I haven't purchased any of the TFMR rounds yet the discount available when purchasing through Scottsdale equals the price of the monthly membership.

I used the info TF put out to make a very large purchase on friday, and boy am I glad I did as silver is up something like 4% since then.

Bollocks's picture

Never-ending fraud..

When are people really going to wake up and realise that the banks are organised criminals. Crime is what they do. It's their one and only purpose.
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Lloyds bank fined record £28m for 'serious failings'

Lloyds Bank sign

Lloyds Banking Group has been fined £28m for "serious failings" in relation to bonus schemes for sales staff.

The Financial Conduct Authority said it was the largest fine that it or the former Financial Services Authority had imposed for retail conduct failings.

The bonus scheme pressurised staff to hit sales targets or risk being demoted and have their pay cut, the FCA said.

Lloyds Bank has accepted the regulator's findings and apologised to its customers.

"The findings do not make pleasant reading," said FCA director Tracey McDermott.

There was a grim atmosphere in some Lloyds, Halifax and Bank of Scotland branches, as staff tried to avoid being demoted and having their pay cut for failing to meet sales targets.

"I left just before I was likely to have had a breakdown," one staff member told the BBC.

Another reported that "The only thing that matters is hitting sales numbers, not the customer."

And one who lost his job said: "I can only describe my nine months in a branch as a disgrace."

Lloyds has embarked on a trawl of sales to 692,000 customers to see how many may have lost out.

About 11,000 cases are being prioritised - cases where the behaviour of advisers seemed to be most questionable.

There are suggestions that Lloyds may have set aside as much as £100m to cover compensation for failings including the ones highlighted today.

The fine could have been £35m had Lloyds not agreed to settle early, the FCA said.

Lloyds has already set aside £8bn for mis-selling loan insurance and £400m for mis-selling interest rate swaps. And in 2003 it was fined £1.9m and handed a £100m compensation bill by the Financial Services Authority for mis-selling so-called "precipice bonds".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25330366

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edit: SECUND!

batting500's picture

I like it...

The occassionally 'freebie', now set the hook and reel them in Turd!

Ten bucks a month is cheap people, the charts he posts are worth it alone.  The Podcasts are like icing on the cake.

batting500

Good luck all...

Bugzy's picture

Energy

Vault =< Turd on main => Entropy 

Metal doldrums not helping much either.

Running out of new distractions via other sites too. Seems I am unable to successfully fill the mental void and this rat might just have to capitulate and stop procrastinating and actually re enter the world. Heaven forbid; what a ghastly thought!

Save me Turd.

paisan's picture

Subscription

As a rule, I don't pay for content on the Internet, but if you accept bitcoins, I'll subscribe here.

Bongo Jim's picture

Usually...

I take my orders from Major Malfunction, but this is General Update talkin'!

AGAU's picture

Never ending fraud

This will never stop when the penalties are simply fines, no matter how high, it's coming out of gross bank profits anyway , just the cost of doing business 

W e need to start jailing these pricks starting at the top of the tree, make some nice cash bonus available for the little shites that carry out the dirty deeds so they turn each other and more importantly their bosses in ,  the fines need to be levied against the personal wealth of the management and the boards of directors take away their nice little surrey  Mc mansions and jaguars etc put them in jail like any other criminal low life!!,

TJeffson's picture

A question from a non-trader

Could someone explain this part in simple terms ?  ". Thus far this month, The JPM House account has stopped 4,284 of 4,469 December gold deliveries"     

Since I've never traded commodities nor ever really followed the COMEX stuff... what does it mean to stop deliveries?   Is JPM taking delivery of physical gold or are they settling those contracts for cash instead? 

Turd Ferguson's picture

Oh, OK...

MODERATOR

You won't pay $10/month BUT you'll gladly slip me a $1000 bitcoin....Rrrrrrrrriiiiggghhhttt.....

Thanks, anyway. surprise

Response to: Subscription
Turd Ferguson's picture

To "stop"

MODERATOR

This means to take the delivery. The other side is to "issue".

In other words, JPM has taken 96% of all Comex deliveries this month into their own proprietary "House" account(s). The rest of the world has stopped 185.

Put another way, over the first 10 days of this month, JPM has claimed for themselves and, apparently, removed from The Comex vaultng system,  4,284 of these:

The rest of the world has taken delivery of 185.

TJeffson's picture

Thanks Turd

That makes it easy to understand.   I've never been a trader or involved in the markets.  I just stack when I have the spare cash... short term prices are pretty much irrelevant to me.  

Cleburne61's picture

Turd

Hey Turd, bitcoins are divisible to the millionth.  He's probably thinking about giving you much less than that, for example, .01 BTC would be $10, and it just as easy to give as 1 BTC(you just type a decimal and a zero before the 1). 

Btw folks, today the SLV bled a huge 3,081,085 ounces.  The bleed rate of about 2 million oz per week for the last 2 months is still intact.  This brings the total still "in the trust" officially at roughly 328 million...or just about 4 million oz from the balance it had at year's beginning.  We're just within 1% of the "inventory" being flat on the year(despite the ludicrous outlier of a near 19 million oz deposit back in January).

It's highly likely that the SLV will end the year in the negative, year over year.  It's also likely that "the powers" will not allow this to happen even if it happens.  If the US Mint can move one year's sales in December each year to next year's January...why not do it in the SLV too?

tmosley's picture

Turd, you can pay a fraction

Turd, you can pay a fraction of a bitcoin, you know.

It's now my far, far, FAR preferred method of making payment over the internet.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Thanks for the clarification

MODERATOR

Not hip enough to understand the bitcoin subtleties...though, just for fun,  I still plan to buy one if they crash back to 400 or so.

Response to: Turd
Down Range's picture

Where the Hell is the Pirate?

XTY call home!

Gold Dog's picture

Turd-

How did you know I was a General?

I don't need personal updates, but thanks!

General Dog, Ret.

Turd Ferguson's picture

This is fun...

MODERATOR
Turd Ferguson's picture

Our friend, Xty, was

MODERATOR

Our friend, Xty, was frustrated by some things on the site so she decided to take a short leave. I understand completely, believe me...

She still reads the site but doesn't post. I hope she decides to come back soon.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Heir General

MODERATOR

I thought it was "Field Marshal".

Btw, have you picked up any of these yet? They're very shiny!

Response to: Turd-
SIlverbee's picture

JPM's virtual gold

They, an `Authorised Participant' sold virtual contracts (at the most strategic market moving moments) to suppress the market to other Authorised participants. Now its time to sell back (at the most strategic market moving moments) to the original big boss Authorised participant. All AP's know their is no physical but that's not the point it is to perpetuate the resemblance of a market at all stages in the process.

If this was not true then why is no physical enters the COMEX or leaves the COMEX. Also why are past stops often not honoured? It's because they know it's better to play the game in a collusive manner and all benefit than draw attention to the weaknesses of no physical by actually asking for delivery and expected real material to arrive. Even at the physical level its still just delivery notes moving from one side of a warehouse to another.

How can it be that on the eve of first notice multiples of COMEX registered be in line to be delivered and no one panics within the system? It because they know its not real and its just a sham. IMHO

Gold Dog's picture

I will grab some now....

.....

President for Life, Idi Amin Dogda

(The Turdite formerly known as "Papa Dog".)

ag1969's picture

NRA Membership

So after 1 year of NRA membership, they are trying very hard to get me to renew.  I took the time this morning to write this email to Wayne Lapierre, President of the NRA:

Dear Wayne, I keep receiving emails stating why I should renew my membership in the NRA to save my gun rights.  Let me start by saying that my gun rights are very important to me.  It has become quite clear to me, in my 1 year as a member of the NRA, that there is nothing you can do to protect my gun rights, because you are lobbying people who did not give me my gun rights in the first place.  My rights are inalienable, and the people you are lobbying absolutely can not take my gun rights away from me.  If they try to do so in an illegal, tyrannical sort of way then the only person who can defend my gun rights is myself.  Congress and the president are acting in an illegal and tyrannical fashion, and if they do try to take my rights without properly amending the Constitution, then they will be acting outside of the law and it is up to me at that point to defend my inalienable rights.

Quite frankly, I have watched gun rights get trampled in the year I have been an NRA member, and it becomes quite obvious that there is nothing you can do to stop what has been set in motion.  Our Once Great Republic has already been pushed past the tipping point. Because of that, I feel deeply that the best use of my NRA Membership dues is more ammo, which, in the end, will be the only way to protect my rights.  I pledge my life and my sacred honor to defend the constitution, but I will no longer pay to lobby the criminals who have subverted it.

Wishing you and your family a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!

Sincerely,

ag1969

This is what I got back:

Delivery has failed to these recipients or distribution lists:

WayneLaPierre@nra.org
Your message wasn't delivered because of security policies. Microsoft Exchange will not try to redeliver this message for you. Please provide the following diagnostic text to your system administrator.

It appears to me that Wayne wishes not to hear from the minions.  Anyone who wants to change my mind on the NRA can feel free to do so, but right now I am feeling like that money would be far better spent on stacking and prepping.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Yep. More or less.

MODERATOR

However, the major difference at this point in history is that HSBC and Scotia took delivery through the first half of 2013 and almost all of that gold actually left the Comex depository system. (See chart below.) 

So, yes, perhaps this is just a continuation of the game of swapping warehouse receipts. The chart above suggests, though, that the game may finally be ending. We'll see...

Response to: JPM's virtual gold
Blythesshrink's picture

Sprott - I think I read that

I think I read that there's been some large gold withdrawals from Sprotts fund? If true, I can't help wondering whether a large Canadian bank might be trying to get their hands on some additional physical gold right now.

1ShotAK's picture

Yep $500.00 gold for 2014 ;)

That was a fun read, thank you Mr. T.

V/R

1ShotAK USCG Ret.

murphy's picture

good one TF!

I know it's hard to click on every link. This was a good short one.

http://www.deviantinvestor.com/5318/gold-will-plummet-to-500-charles-ponzi-and-i-believe-it/

Turd Ferguson's picture

dot connecting

MODERATOR

Would seem to be a logical deduction.

silver66's picture

Hey Turd

Your post made it into BMG Bullions newsletter

http://www.bmgbullion.com/document/5652/bullionbuzz/Courage_and_Conviction.html

Hat tip to you

Silver66

P.S. I think Nick Barisheff would be a good interview or his VP Paul

Turd Ferguson's picture

That is very kind of them.

MODERATOR

That is very kind of them.

Response to: Hey Turd
JY896's picture

@Hammer re: NoKo 'panic' gold sales to 'stave off collapse'

Hmm... Why now, of all times, would the official S. Korean media mouthpiece (.gov news agency) decide to try to exploit its position as the 'window to Korea' to stir claims of impending regime instability/collapse? Is it just another day in the playbook, or is there a specific occasion?

Some more nuance/background and counterpoints to the original story.

S. Korean party line (NICE headline, BTW): N. Korea sells gold in sign of imminent economic collapse

BullionVault perspective, with more details. Not sure if this contradicts or confirms the story above:

"They are selling not only gold that was produced since December [2011], when Kim Jong-un came to power," the source said in that report, "but also gold bars from the country's reserves and bought from its people."
 
Thirty years after being approved as meeting the Good Delivery standards of the London bullion market, center of the world's wholesale trade, gold bars produced by the Central Bank of the DPRK were moved to the "former list" in 2006. That means they remain acceptable in form and appearance, but it doesn't trump the market's compliance with international sanctions against the regime.
 
Over the 10 years ending 1993, the central bank sold "an average of one tonne a month on the London market," according to the Christian Science Monitor."

Even HuffPo has counterargument:

"North Korea's economic paralysis is set to deepen after Jang Song-thaek, uncle and guardian to North Korean leader Kim Kong-un, was purged from the regime's inner circle as he is believed to have managed the country's economic dealings with foreign countries. [...]

However, experts poured cold water on suggestions the country could imminently go bust. Aidan Foster Carter, honorary senior research fellow in Modern Korea at Leeds University, told the Huffington Post UK: "North Korea has often sold gold and they do it quite routinely. It's not a sign of imminent economic collapse."
 

Selling gold to stave off imminent collapse? Making their initial, mandatory deposits in the new reserve system? You say tomayto, I say tomahto... :-)

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