What Medium to long Term Cycles in the Dow are saying

Today's blog is an audio visual one. Hopefully this format works and gives new possibilities for future blog posts.

The Dow is making new highs as we speak, and Wall St, which has been pushing it up with money borrowed virtually for free from the Fed,is ringing the bell to draw forth fresh paper, I mean money, from fresh meat, I mean investors and funds, since all is fixed and the stock market proves it's so.

Well are they right? I do think we will see fresh money drawn out, and the Wall St sharks will devour it promptly. But after, what then? Is the great innocent investing public tapped out, or can they buy everything thrown at them and push prices higher? I took a look at longer term timecycles to see what they say about the Dow. As it happens, it's not so pretty as the news of new highs would suggest.

Meanwhile although the Dow is in new high ground, it is banging into an overhead resistive trendline already. Probably won't stop the stock indices in their tracks, but will produce a fresh area of sellers which the Fed and capitulating bears have to buy their way through, ... or not.

Have a look at this:

First the Dow ... breakouts have been labelled "A" and "B", but what about that overhead resistance?

Now the Russell ... also a breakout leaving bears defeated and buying their way out of bad positions, tipping around that upper edge of the broadening pattern too. Looking bullish so far.

The Nikkei (below) after a big rise has also found it's way back to a place located right under long term overhead resistance, this time a descending long term trend. There should be plenty of big sellers waiting above such a trendline, which is also a descending trading range's top edge.

Next the SPX, renowned (in the writer's opinion) for false breakouts, which currently looks marvellous:

That's the best one I guess. But while such strength takes time to bleed away, I suspect that after a little time fizzling nicely, the natural long term waves will begin to return to stock indices, and what do they have to say at the moment?

Note they are long term cycles, a general idea only, with no ability to provide specific information. Just one individual method's quite fuzzy and error-prone view forwards. I provide a couple of test analyses in the past for evaluative purposes, and also the one that matters most, placed on the right hand side of the chart.

Here is the link to the mp4 file (9 MB filesize).: Argentus Blog 1 Dec 2013 - Dow Long Term Cycles

Hope you enjoy it.

Argentus Maximus

The author posts daily commentary on the gold and silver markets in the TFMR forum: The Setup For The Big Trade. More information about the author & his work can be found here: RhythmNPrice.

80 Comments

Bollocks's picture

Oh Bugger

Furst then! wink

Bollocks's picture

Might as well take second as well, eh?

Bollocks's picture

Surely not thurd as well?

Ridiculous.

benny_bomb_boom's picture

close but not horseshoes so

pack some in and smoke your fourth

Zoltan's picture

Sunday Night ND Open

No data yet but Kitco seems to show some action (price is lower but shows as being up? WTH?).  Been a long time since we have had Sunday night weirdness, hope it is a bullish sign.

Been busy but lurking.  Sorry Turd wasn't able to do a Kitco bankruptcy story for  you (maybe over Christmas holidays).  Draw your own conclusions here:

www.richter.ca > insolvency cases >kitco (sorry the link won't post)

Z

AlienEyes's picture

@Zoltan, I saw that, also.

A chart where up is down. Go figure.  surprise Here's your link :

http://www.richter.ca/en/insolvency-cases/k

 

Kitco Metals Inc.

Phone: 514.934.3484
Fax: 514.934.3504
 
Phone: 514.934.3513
Fax: 514.934.3504
Mr. Fix's picture

What is the DOW telling me?

GET OUT!!!

But then again, It might be the voices in my head. wink

waxybilldupp's picture

Voices in your head, Fix?

I've been dealing with them too.

Happily, four out of five of them agree, I'm not crazy!

wax off

flyinkel's picture

Waxybilldupp, just curious

What does the last one say? blush

waxybilldupp's picture

Fly ...

The last one says, "Waxy, you are one crazy sumbitch.  Look at you!  Stacking PMs when you could have been buying stocks. Hell, you even bought more Maples and mercury dimes today at the Local Coin Show.  Good luck you big dope."

When I hear that Rat Bastard chime in, I take a 10 minute time out and watch this video.  Check it out.  It's worth your time.

wax off

flyinkel's picture

Oh

cause that sounds like my spouse.

Amazing video.yes

bullion only's picture

seems the only cycle that matters

Seems the only cycle that matters is the cycle for GLD to run out of gold.

At this rate and if they have all they say they have could be 2 years but things don't go at this rate til the end.

Starts off very slow and you begin to think it may never happen then suddenly it's done and over.

Unless of course there is another then another then another source of gold. Bank of England, IMF, Ft Knox, World bank, western central banks................

But I'm guessing those have already been used and GLD is the last depository.

Thoughts?

RT

Hammer's picture

Good stuff ArgentusMeanwhile

Good stuff Argentus

Meanwhile the hunt for more hidden untaxed money continues unabated. They want "their" money back

Cayman Islands agrees to report US citizens’ offshore assets under controversial law

http://rt.com/business/cayman-tax-report-agreement-505/

I wonder where the money there will try to hide next ? Hmmmmm.....

Hammer's picture

Credit Suisse has said Rolf

Credit Suisse has said Rolf Boegli, head of wealth management for super-rich clients in Switzerland, will step down at the end of the year for health reasons

Boegli, 50, plans to return after a leave of absence, according to an internal memo to staff today from Hans-Ulrich Meister, co-head of private banking and wealth management. A spokesman for Zurich-based Credit Suisse confirmed the memo’s contents. Thomas Gottstein, 49, who leads investment banking Switzerland coverage, will take over from Boegli in January.

 

In the meantime, Bloomberg also reports that three real estate-investment bankers at Credit Suisse, UBS and Citigroup are leaving to start their own company to tap rising demand for property transactions in Germany, three people with knowledge of the matter said.

Citigroup’s Sebastian Fuchs, Credit Suisse’s Christian Schlueter and UBS’s Stefan Bartschat will help run the firm, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the talks are private.

http://hereisthecity.com/en-gb/2013/11/30/c-suisse-head-steps-down/

Former Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, a protege of Treasury Secretaries Rubin and Summers, has received his reward for continuing the Rubin-Summers-Paulson policy of supporting the “banks too big to fail” at the expense of the economy and American people. For his service to the handful of gigantic banks, whose existence attests to the fact that the Anti-Trust Act is a dead-letter law, Geithner has been appointed president and managing director of the private equity firm, Warburg Pincus and is on his way to his fortune.

A Warburg in-law financed Woodrow Wilson’s presidential campaign. Part of the reward was Wilson’s appointment of Paul Warburg to the first Federal Reserve Board. The symbiotic relationship between presidents and bankers has continued ever since. The same small clique continues to wield financial power.

Geithner’s career is illustrative. In the 1980s, Geithner worked for Kissinger Associates. In the mid to late 1990s, Geithner served as a deputy assistant Treasury secretary. Under Rubin and Summers he moved up to undersecretary of the Treasury.

From the Treasury he went to the Council on Foreign Relations and from there to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). From there he was appointed president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he worked to make banks more profitable by allowing higher ratios of debt to capital, thus contributing to the financial crisis.

Geithner arranged the sale of the failed Wall Street firm of Bear Stearns, helped with the taxpayer bailout of AIG, and rejected saving Lehman Brothers from bankruptcy in order to create the crisis atmosphere needed to more fully subordinate US economic policy to the needs of the few large banks.

Rubin, a 26-year veteran of Goldman Sachs, was rewarded by Citibank for his service to the banks while Treasury Secretary with a $50 million compensation package in 2008 and $126,000,000 between 1999 and 2009.

When a person becomes a Treasury official it is made clear that the choice is between serving the banks and becoming rich or trying to serve the public and becoming poor. Few make the latter choice.

Read more at http://www.wirenews.co/op-ed/usa/16459/the-money-changers-serenade-a-new-plot-hatches#i4YZQAKYFUM21qRF.99

http://www.wirenews.co/op-ed/usa/16459/the-money-changers-serenade-a-new-plot-hatches

Just some Monday reading - nothing new here but one person's opinion.

agNau's picture

Cycles?

small pause, 90 degree spike
small pause, 90 degree spike

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/AMBSL

Cycle change ahead with Yellen?

shorter pauses, and longer spikes.

ivars's picture

I just went through  Johnson

I just went through  Johnson  cabinet papers available in state Departments about international monetary system. I intend to continue with Nixon to see how the departure from gold happened really, but a short summary is like this:

1) Due to negative balance of payments the USA had been experiencing since 1960 (and due to expansion of domestic money supply as the USA experienced good growth after 1964)  the gold cover for USD had been decreasing, also because part of USD as reserve currency accumulated abroad were returned to the USA by CBs of various countries in exchange for gold (and thus USD were annihilated , creating need for new USD)  . So USA gold reserves were shrinking all the time with increasing speed.

2) Such decrease in USD/USA gold reserve ratio required repricing of gold in USD upwards from 35 USD/Oz fixed in Bretton Woods. However, such action was perceived as devaluation of USD ( as other currencies did not feel so much pressure and were not reserve currencies) and undermining USD reserve status, so London Gold Pool was established in 1961 with CLEAR aim - not hidden either- to suppress the gold prices by selling it into London market.  US provided 50% of gold for the pool, the other participants the rest. 

3) This London Pool based gold suppression lead to significant gold outflows from CBs to private market and in 1967 June French pulled out of London Gold Pool, followed in 1968 March of closing the London Gold pool and establishing a 2 tier gold price market - one at 35 USD / Oz for official transactions, which were to be done on bilateral basis, one for private markets ( the center of private gold sales went to Zurich Gold Pool in 1970 - ties).  Agreements between nations forbid to sell Official gold to official country institutions IF they were selling that gold into open market for higher prices. In the USA, gold market did not exist as it was forbidden since 1933. 

4) In parallel, still trying to keep 35 USD/Oz official gold peg, the USA forced forward creation of SDR as MONEY asset which would be AS GOOD AS GOLD ( Sec. of Treasury Fowler) , and would thus reduce the demand for the USD and following conversion of USD into GOLD in UST. The implementation of SDR however was not as the USA expected also because it became more and more obvious that it is impossible to devise ways to keep the USA on gold standard at fixed price while the world commerce requested more and more USD as reserve currency. 

So, gold price suppression is nothing new, nor hidden, it is always needed when confidence in currency  ( even under gold standard) is in question, and the difference is only HOW it is accomplished and that is what we should be finding out because the methods available for governments to suppress gold price also  will clearly  SIGNAL the end of the suppression. In 60-ties, governments were flooding the market with gold to keep price down. It was obvious that at some point they will either run out of gold or feel that they can not afford to lose more. In 1968 ( and probably much earlier) in the USA administration there were no doubts that gold standard/Bretton Woods  has to be abandoned, but it still took 3 years before it was done. A lot of monetary decisions including British austerity were done in order to protect fixed exchange regime under USD and GOLD standard with gold priced at 35 USD/Oz. 

My idea  which seems just  a common sense to me, is that while you may exercise some price suppression via futures markets nothing sustainable will happen if you do not control/focus on physical gold market- in London again. And even that will prove unsustainable. 

In the end nothing can replace selling of physical gold to suppress gold price. The next best thing is a promise to sell as much as needed- but you have to follow through on this promise. All the rest is just propaganda. E.g now we shall see increase in long term UST rates to drive up USD value. It will help to suppress gold price indirectly and will again carry along a lot of pain and probably kill the housing market. I still see 4% UST 10 year by February. May be there is not enough gold right now to sell, so  other tools need to be applied. 

Follow the gold. It is still the basis of world monetary system. 

One thing USG and other govts might try is to force private gold ( big private gold) to sell into market. I wonder how they can achieve that but for them nothing is impossible in terms of pressure they want to apply - that is , if they do not get kicked back with same force threats. 

ivars's picture

Could be Bitcoin is entering

Could be Bitcoin is entering a waterfall cascade. Should have crashed a 2 weeks  earlier, but being illiquid its prone to cornering. But now it looks like the move down is sincere. In any case, there is not much air left in this bubble.

Question is what will happen to it after it goes down..Will it go up again? The biggest difference with gold is in fact the availability of zillion alternatives. Of course, the same was said about QUERTY keyboard, Amazon, e-Bay, Facebook etc. Even in digital landscape, as in mineral, some solutions ramp up huge market share despite being not so unique, but because of standardization/discrete nature of human perception , and hitting exactly into target there. 

So it is possible that Bitcoin comes out of the shakeout phase as the best digital currency. It is also possible that few others do- but never where human usage is involved, does uniform distribution exists. There is always Nr1 which is usually far away from Nr2 and no one has heard about Nr3. 

ag1969's picture

Ammo Price Surge Expected

ecause of heightened EPA regulations, Doe Run Company's Herculaneum lead smelter in Herculaneum, Missouri—the last U.S. smelter of its kind—is closing its doors on December 31, 2013. 

Once this happens, the lead for traditional ammunition will have to be imported, thus driving up the price for bullets, shotgun shells, etc.

The Herculaneum smelter has been operating in the same location since 1892. And according to the NRA's Institute for Legislative Action (NRA-ILA), "it is the only smelter in the United States which can produce lead bullion from raw lead ore," so once it closes, the only lead smelters left in the nation will be ones that recycle lead from existing items "such as lead acid batteries or spent ammunition components."

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2013/12/01/Higher-Ammo-Prices-Anticipated-As-EPA-Regs-Close-Lead-Smelter

ag1969's picture

On the Cusp of HISTORIC COMEX EVENTS -- Turd Ferguson & Silver D

Published on Dec 1, 2013

DON'T MISS THIS ONE: 'We are on the cusp of something historic happening on the Comex,' says TF Metals Report's Turd Ferguson. In this roundtable discussion which also includes the Doc from Silver Doctors, we examine the strange purchase of gold contract with a $3,000 strike price in 2015. We cover the PROVEN Gold and Silver manipulation with the London fix, we chat about the new gold-backed crypto-currency known as e-gold, and we finish with the gripping story of the very real drain on the Comex. 'We know that for the first time anyone can remember, the US banks are net long Comex gold futures, US banks meaning JP Morgan. And net long to the point of having CORNERED the paper gold market in New York because the position is so large. I'm talking the extent of 20% of open interest. And now we're heading into the December delivery period..."

Mickey's picture

So far it looks like a shortage

Or outage of gold inventory at comex does not change much.

or weak holiday retail sales, the probability of declining margins, or anything else will soften up the equity markets.

back in 1987 when the markets cratered they printed up money gave it to the big banks to buy spx futures to turn around the markets. At first it did not work and the banks were piling up losses and were ready to throw in the towel.

Robert Rubin, then leading GS was quoted saying that the last tranch did turn things around.

remember the dow fell from 2700 to 1700 before leveraged hft over less than 3 trading days.

whats going to happen this time around?

ivars's picture

Quote:Gold future contracts

Quote:
Gold future contracts opened for trading in the United States on December 31, 1974, timed to coincide with the lifting of a 41-year ban on the private ownership of gold by U.S. citizens.

That means gold futures trading was around in 1981 spike. Was it?

I wonder what was happening on COMEX (or similar) in that time and afterwards? Was there any similar OI  patterns of market participants as we see today?

From this chart, roughly, one can say the OI in COMEX is roughly proportional to gold price. Gold price is set in London, so what is the role of futures, or , WHEN does futures play any role in price setting?

Source URL:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/comexs-gold-price-open-interest-bev-charts

argentus maximus's picture

It's in the "setup" thread,

It's in the "Setup" thread, but this deserves mentioning in Main St for those who don't go into the forum.

Don Harrold on Bitcoin. Skip to 13:00 and see what he says about the Continental and competition between freely issued currencies.

Hammer's picture

here we go again The UN's

here we go again

The UN's human rights chief has said an inquiry has produced evidence that war crimes were authorised in Syria at the "highest level", including by President Bashar al-Assad.

It is the first time the UN's human rights office has so directly implicated Mr Assad.

 
Is it me or does the media have a love affair with the word, "mass" or "massive" ? WMD and now massive......
 
Muse beat em all wit super massive :)
proton777's picture

Oh, I really miss those

Oh, I really miss those good-old, less-volatile days when silver would only drop like 1%

treefrog's picture

ag1969, re: lead smelter

the smelter being closed was described as:

"it is the only smelter in the United States which can produce lead bullion from raw lead ore,"

i believe there are many mines which produce silver ore with a lead by-product.  likewise copper mines, gold mines, zinc mines......

it is my understanding that ore is classified with regard to the economic value of its contained metals.  i.e. if a ton of ore has ten ounces of silver worth $200.00 and ten pounds of lead worth $50.00 (just guessing - i don't know current lead prices), it's silver ore even if it has twelve times as much lead as silver (by weight).

there may not be so much to worry about in terms of a lead shortage.

Thorus's picture

Treefrog - not sure I understand

Treefrog,

If the smelters are all gone, then how does ore containing lead ever get turned into the raw metal?

I understand your point that there may be alternative sources of ore that contain lead in combination with other metals.

But if there is no smelter to turn the ore into lead, that still sounds like a missing link in the production process to me.  Are you saying the silver refiners will be producing refined lead as a by-product?

Regards,

Thorus

P.S. I understand we can import  lead from abroad (for now).  The issue I'm addressing is what I perceive to be a missing step in the production process here within the US.

bullion only's picture

So much for high delivery month

Well here we are in December. The big delivery month Turd and Harvey and everyone else has been talking about.

So far I'm not only not impressed but disappointed.

Gold down 25$. Really? Tes really, but it is early in the month and this may just be the tactic so that those with 1250 contracts will not take delivery.

So where are we? in the middle of a 5 year trading range. Perhaps 1250$ is the middle.

Low 1ooo$ and high 1500$. Maybe we just have to wait til 2016 when GLD is out.

RT

ivars's picture

You did not take that

You did not take that seriously, did You?

proton777's picture

Every day, every week, every

Every day, every week, every month for the past almost-three years we've been hearing why Precious metals will go up.  Short squeezes, GoFo rates, the dollar, the national debt, backwardation, hyper inflation, Cyprus, Germany, Venezuela, China, Russia, India, Jim Sinclair (great call, Jim), Sprott, Embry, Keiser, the GLD, the Cartel net long position, all those Asian buyers  lined up to buy at 1500 or 1600 or whatever it was, manipulation, physical metals shortages, the collapsed mine, all those "good articles" on KWN, etc, etc etc. 

When silver was approaching $50 many were saying it's going to $80, then $100 then $150.

What apparently should be happening, isn't.  Silver is down 60% and there is no reason for it to stop here. 

Precious metals have been a bad investment, plain and simple.  The numbers don't lie. The bears were right.  Selling metals and buying the indexes at any point in the past 2 years would have been the win-win move. 

Sure, people will say it is not an investment, it's protection, but who wanted and expected a relentless, multi-year hammering which ripped so much wealth from us, our family and our friends?  And in the name of preservation.

Yet, each day, we're told to hang on. Things are about to change for one of the above reasons.   Today we are treated to yet another 2 1/2% spanking, which no one is complaining about because it's commonplace. Normal. Even expected. Not long ago, such a move was unheard of.

It seems Gartman wasn't so dumb after all.

Just the facts as I see them.

proton777's picture

Xty

Anyone know what happened to her?  I was abroad for several weeks and just realized she hasn't made a Main Street article or comment in quite a while.

I really enjoyed her contributions.

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