28 Miles of AGEs

While we sit and watch JPM roll their Dec13 position and smash price in the process, I thought we should have some fun by putting this year's GLD pillaging into context.

Yesterday saw another 1.50 metric ton pillage plunder redemption from the GLD. This leaves the GLD with a total "gold" in "inventory" of 863.01 metric tonnes, down 486.91 metric tonnes YTD or 36.07%.

Maybe 487 metric tonnes doesn't seem like a lot of gold to you? What if we put it this way?

Four hundred eighty six point nine one metric tonnes = 15,654,520 troy ounces

The London Good Delivery Bar we see below is approximately 400 troy ounces. (I say approximately because it is approximately. As everyone knows, the only exact and perfect measurements are found in 1 KG bars. They are always and forever 1.00000000000KG in weight. There is never, ever any variance. kiss)

So, let's do some more math, shall we?

Fifteen million six hundred fifty four thousand five hundred twenty troy ounces = 39,136 London Good Delivery Bars

THIRTY NINE FREAKING THOUSAND!

And if we took those 39,136 London bars and stacked them 192 to a pallet, we'd fill 204 of these pallets!

TWO HUNDRED AND FOUR!!!

But let's not stop there. Let's have fun on this gloomy day...

The stated thickness of an Gold American Eagle coin is 2.87 millimeters. Let's say you're a wise and industrious Turdite and you have acquired a stack of 9 AGEs. If you retrieve from the bottom of the lake where they are stored and then stack them, one on top of the other, your stack would be 25.83 millimeters high or, for American Turdites, just slightly over an inch tall.

Now, just for fun, let's say that YOU are an Authorized Participant and YOU are the one responsible for the entire 15,654,520 troy ounce plundering pillaging redemption. And further, rather than London bars, the entire withdrawal was given to you in the form of AGEs. YOU, because you are filthy rich, have nothing better to do so you set out to stack your treasure, on on top of the other. How high will your stack reach now?

The answer?

A close approximation is that a stack of 319 AGEs would be one yard tall. Therefore, a stack of 15,654,520 AGEs would be over 49,000 yards tall. Put another way....that's about 28 miles!

A little over a year ago, a lunatic from Germany got in a balloon. He rode this balloon up to a height of 25 miles and then he jumped. It looked like this:

 

As frightening as that seems, YOU would have to ascend an additional three miles just to get to the top of your new AGE stack. YIKES!

So, anyway, I'm not sure what the point of all this is. If anything, I hope it gets you thinking about just how much gold has exited the GLD this year and wondering just where-oh-where that gold might have gone. Perhaps that crazy German dude was actually onto something. With so much of this seemingly related to Germany's repatriation "request" back in January, maybe old Felix was simply attempting to demonstrate just how far his country still has to go in retrieving its national treasure.

Hang in there and be ready for some fireworks this afternoon on The Globex when the FOMC minutes are released.

TF

100 Comments

treefrog's picture

furst

rivet, rivet, kneedeep!

ggnewmex's picture

First

What an honor! Tradition

achmachat's picture

awesome!

I love visualization posts!

I remember how you were mentioning in one of your interviews how you make this stuff understandable for the broader public.

good job!

btw, the Austrians are not going to be all too happy that you took Felix Baumgärtner from them and made him German. (But they'd probably stay quiet when that same thing is done with Hitler)

ArtL's picture

4th

The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.

jezfry's picture

36% in almost one year

Means almost another two years at this rate before it's all gone...

Turd Ferguson's picture

OOPS

MODERATOR

I thought he was German....oh well, makes the post flow better and if Hitler hadn't attacked on two fronts simultaneously, all Austrians would be "German" anyway...

BTW, thanks for the compliment. The interview you reference is here:

 

Response to: awesome!
tyberious's picture

Soo..

Those coins would wrap around the world once?

Damn!

ancientmoney's picture

@tyberious . . .

What world do you live on?  One with a 28 mile circumference would be a small world, indeed!  With the coins laid end to end, it would be about 280 miles . . .

Danforth Coxwell's picture

The answer of whether "Gold" is as an investment or insurance

Buying physical gold is insurance. Buying stocks in quality gold mining companies, is an investment. The same maxim could apply to silver.

IMHO

Danforth Coxwell

ancientmoney's picture

@jezfry re: two more years . . .

"Means almost another two years at this rate before it's all gone..."

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I wouldn't count on it.  Some amount of GLD is most likely paper IOUs, and/or already counted as inventory elsewhere, or maybe 62 more places, actually.

tyberious's picture

LOL

That should be deleted! Obviously a very small world,indeed :)

tyberious's picture

Silver Fundamentals from a

Silver Fundamentals from a Historian’s Perspective

deviantinvestor.com / By GE Christenson / November 20th, 2013

Ryan Jordan, Ph.D., is a professional historian, author, and college professor. He is the author of Silver – The People’s Metal, which I highly recommend.

He sees silver fundamentals from the perspective of a historian and as an astute observer of present conditions. He studies the drivers of the silver market, supply, demand, mining, inflation, investment sentiment, central bank bond monetization policies, and politics.

What does he think?

Demand for silver is strong!

Silver Demand As Guide for Silver’s Next Price Move

“Yesterday, the US Mint confirmed a record year for sales of silver coins– and we still have six weeks in the year to go. Yes, the roughly 40 million ounces of silver only accounts for maybe 5% of overall demand, but it also represents a huge increase from a decade ago when it comes to investor interest in physical metal. In fact, globally, silver investment demand is up essentially from ZERO just 10 short years ago (take some time to allow that to sink in when thinking about the change in investor sentiment toward precious metals in recent years.)

And demand for silver isn’t just an American phenomenon. Last month, somewhat surprising news came out of India of a roughly 130 million ounces of silver imported into that country in just the first six months of the year. This was in response to the shutdown of gold imports into that country.”

Conclusions

Ignore for the moment moving averages, technical analysis, relative strength indicators, partial differential equations, econometric analysis, Federal Reserve economic models, and all the other tools of the technician and just listen to the historian. He thinks:

  • Demand for silver is strong in the United States, India and China.
  • Central banks are printing currency and attempting to create inflation.
  • The reserve status of the dollar is weakening. Many countries are bypassing the dollar in their international trade.
  • Mining companies will have reduced output because their revenues have declined while expenses have increased. Hence the supply of silver and gold will remain relatively flat while demand is increasing.
  • The global middle class will demand more gold and silver for savings. Americans may not understand gold and silver but over 2,000,000,000 Chinese and Indians do, and that demand for actual physical metals will grow.
  • The cult of equities is flying high but it may not last. There is room for a shift from equities and bonds to precious metals. Even a small shift in demand away from stocks and bonds could cause the relatively tiny gold and silver markets to rise to new highs.
  • Fundamentally and historically speaking, there are many reasons to own gold and silver.

GE Christenson
aka Deviant Investor

- See more at: http://www.deviantinvestor.com/5238/5238/#sthash.8NECE4Dh.dpuf

ancientmoney's picture

@Danforth re: what gold is . . .

"Buying physical gold is insurance"

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Yes, in a fiat world, anyone afraid of collapse would view gold as insurance, rightly so.

It is also money, though not currently recognized as such.  Article I Section 10 of the U.S. Constitution:

"No State shall enter into any Treaty, Alliance, or Confederation; grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal; coin Money; emit Bills of Credit; make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts"

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

We obviously don't follow the constitution any longer, as states allow fiat to be used in payment of debt, and not "money" as required by the constitution.

It sure looks like gold will be forced back into "moneyness" (a FOFOA term) by some entity, in order to keep the world power structure (bankers) in force.

bullion only's picture

How much longer?

Well thats the trillion dollar question isn't it?
Two more years at this rate puts us at 3rd quarter 2015 as predicted by Armstrong and many others but the collapse of London metals exchange and GLD does not happen on a particular day. If happens gradually with prices increasing then picking up momentum as the end draws near. So two years at the most but that is for the final collapse and then the force mejure and cash settlement default but the cracks in the foundation will widen and weakness will be exposed.
I read this is all about keeping China at bay. They know that we are doing a steady and relentless devaluation of the trillion dollars that they hold.
We sell them gold at a cheap price and they don't dump dollars. When all is said and done they have 8000 tons of gold as we do (no one will ever know for sure but our military might guarantees it) Europe has their 8000 or so tons and the big three are established. Just like Brave New World or was it 1984?
Anyway China will have the gold it needs to be a world player. I remember Rickards talking about this. So we thought we had the Chinese put but I guess not as a deal was struck with the feds. Anyway this will be over in something like 670 days. I'm sticking with 3Q 2015. Hang tough and enjoy life.
RT

Turd Ferguson's picture

This is unfreakingbelievable!!

MODERATOR
tyberious's picture

@bullion only

Rickards, Armstrong, Kaiser, Hartman, Maloney and others are all looking at or around 2016, though some just say this decade.

There will be a reset and they know it. Its all about buying time and control. They have an agenda that must be completed first and I believe it is the complete dissolution of our once glorious Republic.

Iceberg Slim's picture

GLD Drain

Just to give some perspective..

Let just say that at $1300/oz...15,654,520 troy ounces of gold is roughly $20.3 BILLION DOLLARS in gold that has left the GLD.

That's a lot.

ancientmoney's picture

Another buying opportunity?

Over the last several weeks, I have posted some of the TA work done by Toby Conner (and as reminded by another turdite, AKA Ted Savage).

Conner/Savage has said it appeared to him that the bankers intended to push gold down below previous recent lows, to possibly $1030 area.  The reason is to bleed out any weak hands before the bankers let her rip, is so they can get 100% returns instead of just 50% returns.

Radomski is seeing the same for silver, though he doesn't give any reasoning, just pure TA.  I think its for the same reason, and also to loosen some SLV silver at cheap prices to get the phyzz where it needs to go to keep the world as we know it running.

He sees $19.50 then maybe as low as $16.  I do not doubt they will use paper to push the prices down to cover shorts, and sell SLV shares, so phyzz silver can be freed up.  We've seen it happen in GLD already.

http://www.silverseek.com/article/silver-likely-decline-here-12713

I am a PM (phyzz) bull, and believe that the above is quite likely to happen, because the banks will do what they must to save themselves.  After the takedown, it will be a V-shaped bottom, with new highs within a few months afterward, IMHO.

H8Fiat's picture

I S, is it a lot?  Less than

I S, is it a lot?  Less than one week of QE. 

H8Fiat

pforth's picture

Is it goodbye to $20 for a while now?

I've got a sinking feeling we're going to be saying goodbye to the $20 handle within the next 60 minutes or so.  Hope it's more than a couple of days before we return.

Stratajema's picture

I highly doubt that the GLD

I highly doubt that the GLD has been raided of 487 tons of physical gold YTD because its SEC filings indicate it is not 100% backed by physical gold.  The GLD was specifically created to divert the physical demand for gold into a fake paper-based instrument.

Think about the patient Chinese and their mission to acquire gold.  They don't want the Comex to break because they use that as a vehicle to control price.  There can be no denying that the Chinese are aggressively acquiring gold.  However, they will 'sit and spin' as long as possible at a low price, then decrease their purchases of physical metal to prevent delivery/default problems.  This is what the PM pimps do not understand.  The PM pimps (who have been wrong for the past 2 years) expect the Chinese buying to be a constant until the Comex or GLD or London market implodes.  It won't happen that way.  Jim Rogers, who understands the Chinese thought process better than any Caucasian, expects the price of gold to drop much more over the next year or two.

fraxinus's picture

On November 27th, next Wednesday ...

The buyers will be more impressed if the sellers actually have gold to deliver. "He who sells what isn't his'n, Must buy it back or go to prison." Well, that's too much to hope for, but a highly public default should do the trick. wink

Levon's picture

For all you Savage fans out there

ancientmoney's picture

Good interview of Eric Sprott . . .

http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/could-bad-data-be-depressing-the-gold-price-eric-sprott-says-gfms-stats-are-flawed

We here pretty much know what he said already, but for any newer readers, it sort of sums up how the paper-pushers cover their tracks.

pforth's picture

BTW Venesula is selling it's gold through Goldman...

Looks like that gold that Venesula repatriated is going to be sold off through Goldman.  That'll give the crooks enough new physical to continue playing this game for at least another couple of months, maybe longer.

Woyzeck's picture

Turd

Make the pain stop!!! 

Turd Ferguson's picture

Pforth

MODERATOR

Have you had a chance to listen to the recent podcasts? Just be patient and recognize it for what it is.

And you're right, I wouldn't want to be long paper at 2:00. They've clearly signaled their intentions.

Turd Ferguson's picture

This fucking guy, Gartman

MODERATOR

This fucking guy, Gartman, may just be The Grand Poobah of all Douchbags.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-20/dennis-gartman-compare-and-contrast

Cleburne61's picture

@ Turd

Excellent interview with your friend.

To his point, about why gold investors obsess over gold's price daily, when he views it as nothing more than insurance...

We're "obsessed" because the insurance policy of gold and silver that the holder owns, has over the past 2 to 2.5 years.....failed to pay the holder as a result of an economic heart attack, the economic house burning down, and the economic car crashing.

That's why we're "hung up" on price, and that's why we feel so beat down: we filed this claim 2.5 years ago, and since have watched public insolvencies, the home market re-crashing, interest rates doubling, and two new QE programs....with 2.5 years of ZIRP.....all while nothing was "paid out" to the claimants.

To add insult to injury, that same insurance policy(which hasn't been allowed to pay out)....can now be acquired at a stupid discount at what it was sold at 2.5 years ago.

We're not dumb here.  We know what gold and silver are.  They're not just insurance.....they're more than that, but even if you use that analogy.....it falls woefully short.  Let's stop pretending that folks who bought them at "X" price, have no right to be angry that it's now trading at a fraction of "X".  The pain and deprivation are real, the feelings are legitimate, so let's not patronize the stackers who feel as crushed as the price reflects...I'm not saying you do that Turd, but your friend's tone really came across that way.

SteveW's picture

Some math

As everyone knows, the only exact and perfect measurements are found in 1 KG bars. They are always and forever 1.00000000000KG in weight. There is never, ever any variance.

According to COMEX rules 1 kg bar weights are corrected to 2 decimal positions in oz. 1 kg = 32.150746 troy oz so the specifications would be met by bars weighing from 32.154999 to 32.145500 oz. In other words 1 kg bars weighing between 0.9998368 and 1.0001322 kg will meet these specs.

See: I can be just as stupid and stubborn as anyone else. I've had plenty of practice. cheeky

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