Can Janet Plan It? Speculation on a Yellen Fed

Today, the market is what the Fed says it is. Simple as that. Supply and demand, productivity, projected earnings… all have become mostly irrelevant, or at least vastly subservient to actions of the all-powerful Federal Reserve. When encouraging economic news is announced, markets sell off (this might mean tapering, after all). When terrible news is announced, markets rally (no tapering coming, and maybe a possible increase in QE).  Good news is bad, bad news is good- because valuations and interest rates across the board are now based primarily on market interventions, QE, and control of interest rates.  This is why, by the way, I named my blog ‘The world turned upside down’…  traditionally positive things like delayed gratification and careful preservation of your capital are now bad, spending money you don’t have and taking on debt is good and indeed is encouraged. This is the world we live in.

One would be hard pressed to name one economic factor more important than the Fed right now, because in a very substantive way, the Fed IS the market. Therefore, understanding what a Janet Yellen-led Federal Reserve will look like might be the single most crucial factor in planning our investment strategies for the coming years.

What follows is entirely subjective, and is presented as my opinion only, based on a dash of game theory, my review of roughly three dozen published works by Yellen and a couple dozen more articles about her economic philosophy.  I have tried to highlight aspects I believe are important to understanding how she may run the Fed and formulate policy, so this is not intended to be a balanced, general overview. A selected bibliography of Yellen’s publications, speeches, and articles about her is included at the end of this article for further research on your own.

The bottom line is that I think we have very good reason to be fearful of what is going to happen during a Yellen chairmanship.  Since 1970 there have been just five Fed Chairmen, with an average tenure of about 9 years. If Janet Yellen follows suit, she will serve as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve until roughly 2023- do you think we might find ourselves in any important economic situations over that time?  Yeah, thought so.  How this chairman reacts to crisis, and the core underlying economic beliefs that will inform her actions, will go a very long way towards determining what daily life will look like for us, at some point in the not-too-distant future. 

Yellen is the first purely academic Fed chair in history, having never held a paying job in the private sector

Much like our current President, Yellen’s entire adult life has been spent either in government or in the academy.  She has never once had to actually turn a profit or make a payroll.  Her understanding of how business works is therefore entirely theoretical, not based on any personal experience running a company or working in a corporation or financial institution.  Put another way, the person entrusted with creating the business climate has never actually been in business.  She has read about it, though.  So she’s got that going for her.    

Here is just one of the many reasons this worries me: In the aftermath of the 2008-2009 financial crisis, Yellen admitted that as San Francisco Fed chair, she had been completely unaware of the existential risks to the system the MBS, Credit Default swaps, etc. posed. Indeed, it appears she was largely ignorant of major portions of the financial industry’s business model or how these aspects functioned in actual practice. A New York Times report quoted by Zerohedge shows the degree to which Yellen was in the dark about how the financial system was actually being run:

“Ms. Yellen told the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission in 2010 that she and other San Francisco Fed officials pressed Washington for new guidance, sharing the problems they were seeing. But Ms. Yellen did not raise those concerns publicly, and she said that she had not explored the San Francisco Fed’s ability to act unilaterally, taking the view that it had to do what Washington said.

“For my own part,” Ms. Yellen said, “I did not see and did not appreciate what the risks were with securitization, the credit ratings agencies, the shadow banking system, the S.I.V.’s — I didn’t see any of that coming until it happened.” Her startled interviewers noted that almost none of the officials who testified had offered a similar acknowledgment of an almost universal failure.”

Yellen is the most overtly political Fed Chair since Marriner Eccles.

Eccles was hand-picked to serve as FDR’s Fed chair during the New Deal, and deliberately crafted monetary policy as a direct aid to (big) governmental policy.   Indeed, he was famously chastised during testimony before the House by Congresswoman Jessie Summers of Illinois on the role of the Fed in directly facilitating the increasingly statist policies of the Roosevelt administration.  In response to an Eccles explanation of this support, Summers famously chastised "Oh, you just love socialism".

Yellen is clearly in this mold, and views monetary policy as an extension of the liberal project of “perfecting society” through large scale governmental action and intervention.  A New York Times article on Yellen put it this way: “Her confirmation would reinforce the Fed’s evolution from an institution run by market-wise bureaucrats focused on controlling inflation to an institution run by academics committed to a broader mission” (link)  That ‘broader mission’ is the liberal/progressive big government project, emphasized by the fact that that same NYT article glowingly described Yellen not as an economist but as a “Liberal theorist” in the headline.  An interesting and probably accurate description.

Yellen is a Keynesian’s Keynesian- a fervent and devout believer in the faith.

Near the end of the Reagan administration there was some soul searching on the part of Keynesian economists, and during this period they were challenged from both the right (a more “individual action/rationality” free-market oriented critique) and from the left (the Post-Keynesian critique) in ways that probably challenged the primacy of their orthodoxy more than at any time since Hayek’s writings in the 1940’s.  It is therefore telling that during this period of soul-searching, Yellen and husband George Akerlof published a paper titled “Rational Models of Irrational Behavior” that was nothing short of a full-throated defense of Keynes General Theory against the rationalist barbarians at the gate. During this time of “a crisis in Keynesian economics” (as they described it in their introduction) the concluding paragraph is telling:

The bad press Keynesian theory has received from maximizing, super-rational theory is simply undeserved.  The assumptions required to motivate Keynesian economics are quite consistent with the behavioral regularities documented by psychologists and sociologists.  This motivation is in no way tortured out of complicated assumptions and models.  It is highly natural.  Keynesianism, both as theory and explanation of the facts, is alive and well on its fiftieth birthday.  Happy Birthday, General Theory! (Akerlorf and Yellen, Rational Models of Irrational Behavior, American Economic Review Vol. 77 No. 2, 1987)
 

If/when we approach a time of economic crisis, it is my opinion that Janet Yellen is incapable of questioning the core foundational assumptions of her monetary faith- she is a true believer. If she encounters a situation where the Keynsian easy-money prescriptions are not only not working, but are actually making things worse in various areas, this is not a person who will suddenly discover the wonders of free markets and sound money.  MOAR is the only direction this fervent acolyte is capable of going, and she will fight for the Keynesian approach to the bitter end.

The middle class, and savers, have virtually no place in Yellen’s worldview.

Based on her writings and the way she repeatedly characterizes sample problems in economics, it seems that Yellen’s worldview breaks people into three classes… they just aren’t the classes you might at first guess.  To Janet Yellen, the world of economic actors consists of 1. labor, 2. the business owners who hire them, and 3. the technocrats (including politicians) who manage this system.  The technocrats role is to manage the system to the benefit of labor in the form of “full employment” (seen as the ‘common good’, and the moral justification for technocrat administration), and to manipulate or at least work with the self-interest of those who hire labor. 

I was particularly struck by the fact that in over two dozen scholarly articles I reviewed that were written or co-authored by this person, two terms were conspicuously absent:  I never once read a single mention of savers (or the effect her favored monetary policy prescriptions has on them), and I never once read of her formulating an economic problem with regards to the middle class.  In every sample problem or example she gave, Yellen always framed the issue using the leftist formulation of “labor (wage earners) and ownership (employers)”.  Indeed, discussion of the creation of value and capital formation, or the conditions which bring these about, was startlingly absent. 

She will be the first Fed chair (as far as I can find) to have been the keynote speaker at the national meeting of the AFL-CIO, showing how high the concerns of labor are to her (link).  Her speech to this group made her priorities, and her policy path, crystal clear: the Fed under Janet Yellen will prioritize low unemployment over controlling inflation. She will do everything in her power to reduce joblessness by stimulating the economy, even at the expense of the other half of the “dual mandate”.  Which brings us to…

Yellen has the highest tolerance for inflation of any Fed chair in history- she doesn’t fear the (pension and savings) reaper.

Yellen gave two speeches just last year emphasizing the benefits of keeping interest rates at 0% until 2015.  The models she presented in these speeches showed inflation rising above the Fed’s previously stated “red line” inflation level of 2%, topping out in her estimates at 2.5% which she deemed acceptable because in these models she believed that unemployment would drop faster.  This is interesting for several reasons.  First, it shows that she actually believes it would be beneficial to rise above a level that the Fed previously agreed would signal tightening.  Second, although CPI remains below 2% this is widely acknowledged to profoundly underrepresent the actual rate of inflation.  One does not have to be a fan of John Williams at Shadowstats to realize that actual inflation, as experienced by ordinary consumers, is conservatively running somewhere between 5-7% at least, and that Yellen’s model could easily have actual inflation pushing double digits... and that is, IF they hit the target perfectly. Third, it must be remembered that these were public speeches designed for effect, and specifically crafted NOT to appear too extreme.  They therefore likely represent the floor, not the ceiling, of a Yellen policy on inflation.

It is also revealing that on the rare occasions she has addressed rising commodities prices in the past, it is almost always in the context of “these are not the fault of the Fed”, repeatedly denying that easy money policies cause high commodities prices.  A classic example of this was a speech in 2011, quoted below.  Despite the most aggressive short-term expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet in history, despite a huge increase in the the money supply and literally trillions of dollars created out of thin air, Yellen strongly asserted that high commodities prices were not the result of Fed policy.  Read for yourself:

Some observers have attributed the recent boom in commodity prices to the highly accommodative stance of U.S. monetary policy, including the marked expansion of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and the maintenance of the target federal funds rate at exceptionally low level…  I will make the case that recent developments in commodity prices can be explained largely by rising global demand and disruptions to global supply rather than by Federal Reserve policy. Moreover, empirical analysis suggests that these developments, at least thus far, are unlikely to have persistent effects on consumer inflation or to derail the recovery. Critically, so long as longer-run inflation expectations remain stable, the increases seen thus far in commodity prices and headline consumer inflation are not likely, in my view, to become embedded in the wage and price setting process and therefore are not likely to warrant any substantial shift in the stance of monetary policy. An accommodative monetary policy continues to be appropriate because unemployment remains elevated, and, even now, measures of underlying inflation are somewhat below the levels that FOMC participants judge to be consistent, over the longer run, with our statutory mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability.

Interestingly, she also gave a similar explanation back in 2005 regarding energy prices (link) .

Nothing I have read has ever indicated a “rethinking” of statements like this, or an examination of the true costs of inflation over the longer term.  In fact, I honestly think she really doesn’t believes most of this “temporary forces, not Fed policy” stuff at all- it is just what she has to say publicly to manage perception.  In truth, she is just fine with high and persistent inflation, and indeed is counting on it.

Under Yellen, market manipulation and interventions will not only continue, they will likely increase

Did you know that Operation Twist (intervening in the bond markets to reduce long-term interest rates) was invented by her mentor and dissertation advisor at Yale, James Tobin back in the 60’s?  Did you know that her husband, Nobel Laureat George Ackerlof (described in one article as the mastermind behind her career), is a long-time advocate for MOPE- management of perception economics?  In fact, Ackerlof recently published a book with Robert Shiller titled “Animal Spirits” in which he argued for the centrality of confidence, perception, and basically group psychology in stimulating the "animal spirits" required for people to be aggressive in spending money and taking out loans (which, apparently, is where they think productivity and creation of value comes from). http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-06/bernanke-seeking-animal-spirits-channels-yellen-spouse-akerlof.html

Yellen herself gives prominent play to sociological research and psychological factors in economics in her writings.  The bottom line is that both she and the people whose ideas most influence her believe ardently that perception is critical to Fed policy and must be aggressively managed. She takes it as a given that it is right and proper for the Fed to intervene in markets and do whatever it can to encourage (some would say mislead) people into believing that market conditions are ripe for spending more and taking out more loans. I therefore expect increasing interventions in various markets, including precious metals, even greater than we have seen from Bernanke. Indeed, those whose opinion she most values consider this crucial.

.     .     .

So to summarize: 1. No private sector experience, 2. Favors policy that supports  big government and big spending, 3. Deeply committed to Keynesian economics, 4. Unconcerned with effect of policy on savers, middle class, 5. High tolerance for inflation, “dual mandate” no longer equal, and 6. Very comfortable with aggressive intervention in markets, and “managing” expectations.  Again, these are just my opinions based on reading her work, but I believe they are well-founded based on her own writings and statements. 

Some questions remain:

  • Does her lack of career ties to Wall Street mean that either 1. We see a reworking of the current “bank-centric” model of QE to a form of easing which channels money more directly to Main Street OR 2. She will be easily manipulated by an industry which she understands only in theory, and thus will continue the current policy path of using QE to prop-up TBTF banks? Perhaps both?
  • How high (inflation-wise) is she really willing to go in pursuit of the white whale of full employment?
  • How far will she be willing to go in support of MOPE?
  • To what degree does she believe in free markets (voluntary exchange, free from coercion), if at all? In a time of crisis, could we see drastic measures such as de-facto price and wage controls or PM confiscation, supported and justified by the Federal Reserve?

I do not know the answers to these questions.  What I do know is that, having reviewed all of this material, I have a deeply uneasy feeling about this person.  I think her profoundly mechanical view of economics (turn a few knobs, tweak a few rates, and everything will be fine) will be overwhelmed at some point by a crisis situation in which her beloved equations no longer apply.  I think when pressed, she will default to policies that make inflation/hyperinflation even more likely. I think deficits, and the Fed’s balance sheet, are going to explode during her reign. I think a middle class which has seen its net worth slashed by 1/3rd under Obama hasn’t seen anything yet.

And I think it is going to be crucial to protect yourself financially from what is to come. 

Prepare accordingly.

Selected Yellen Publications and Speeches

Fair Wage Effort Hypothesis and Unemployment, 2013: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/files/2013/10/fair_wage_effort_hypothesis.pdf

AFL-CIO speech, 2013: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20130211a.htm

Commodity prices, the economic outlook, and monetary policy, 2011: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20110411a.htm

Stabilization Policy: A Reconsideration, 2011: http://www4.fe.uc.pt/jasa/m_i_2010_2011/stabilizationpolicyreconsideration.pdf

The Outlook for the Economy and Inflation, and the Case for Federal Reserve Independence: Los Angeles, CA, 2010

The Outlook for the Economy and Monetary Policy:  San Diego, CA, 2010

Speech, National Interagency Community Reinvestment Conference, 2008: http://www.frbsf.org/our-district/press/presidents-speeches/yellen-speeches/2008/march/yellen-opening-remarks-national-interagency-community-reinvestment-conference-2008/

Speech,  Center for the Study of Democracy, 2006: http://www.frbsf.org/our-district/press/presidents-speeches/yellen-speeches/2006/november/economic-inequality-in-the-united-states/

Stabilization Policy: A Reconsideration (2006)
http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/~mchinn/yellen_akerlof_stabilizationpolicy

Prospects for the US Economy(2005): http://www.frbsf.org/news/speeches/2005/050302.pdf

Why has the natural rate of unemployment increased through time (1991): http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/2534590?uid=3739864&uid=2&uid=4&uid=3739256&sid=21102948943621

Speech, 2005 in Review and Future Prospects: http://www.frbsf.org/our-district/press/presidents-speeches/yellen-speeches/2005/december/the-u-s-economy-2005-in-review-and-prospects-for-2006/

NBER paper: Waiting for Work:  http://www.nber.org/papers/w3385.pdf

Fairness and Unemployment (1988): http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/1818095?uid=3739864&uid=2&uid=4&uid=3739256&sid=21102948943621

The New Keynesian Economics and the Output/Inflation Tradeoff, 1988 : http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/2534424?uid=3739864&uid=2&uid=4&uid=3739256&sid=21102948943621

Job Switching and Job Satisfaction in the US Labor Market, 1988: http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/2534536?uid=3739864&uid=2&uid=4&uid=3739256&sid=21102948943621

Rational Models of Irrational Behavior (Akerlof/Yellen)
1987 - Annual Mtg. of American Economic Association :
http://kgt.bme.hu/targyak/msc/ke/BMEGT30MN05/data/87-rational-irrat-Akerlof.pdf

A Near-Rational Model of the Business Cycle, with Wage and Price Inertia, 1985
http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/1882925?uid=367209211&uid=3739960&uid=2&uid=3&uid=67&uid=16752216&uid=62&uid=3739256&sid=21102934002991

Articles:

CNN article, Yellen says "There's more of the same on the horizon of good times. There's no obvious reason for the good times to end." as she resigns Clinton econ adviser post in June 1999:  http://money.cnn.com/1999/06/08/economy/yellen/

Economists View article (noting how she missed the housing bubble): http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2005/09/yellen_there_is.html

Rose-colored lenses of hindsight -- The Story of a Bubble (2004 book review on a Yellen book from 2001):  http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2004/jan/15/the-story-of-a-bubble/

Yellen’s poor forecasting track record: http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2013/09/the-truth-about-janet-yellens-forecast.html

NYT: Yellen’s Path From Liberal Theorist to Fed Voice for Jobs: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/10/business/economy/for-yellen-a-focus-on-reducing-unemployment.html?_r=1&

Business Insider, Who Is Janet Yellen: http://www.businessinsider.com/who-is-janet-yellen-2013-6

Bloomberg, Seeking Animal Spirits Bernanke channels Yellen Spouse: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-06/bernanke-seeking-animal-spirits-channels-yellen-spouse-akerlof.html

NYT, For Yellen a focus on reducing unemployment: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/10/business/economy/for-yellen-a-focus-on-reducing-unemployment.html

Seventeen Yellen papers and summaries useful for understanding her philosophy http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/10/09/seventeen-academic-papers-of-janet-yellens-that-you-need-to-read/

NYT, Fed Nominee Gives Views on Rates (1994):
http://www.nytimes.com/1994/07/23/business/fed-nominee-gives-views-on-rates.html

Silver Bear Cafe on Yellen, 2010: http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/03.10/scam.html

Yale article, 2000: http://www.yale.edu/opa/arc-ybc/v28.n34/story1.html

Timeline of Yellen’s career: http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/10/08/janet-yellen-timeline-of-her-career/

Ten Fast Facts About Janet Yellen (Wealthmanagement.com): http://wealthmanagement.com/people/gallery-ten-fast-facts-about-janet-yellen

186 Comments

SMM's picture

First

Now I have to read the article.

bullion only's picture

Another day

Another day another 10 or 20 dollars. Another day of base building. Another day of biding our time.

When will it end? Who knows. How will it end? Badly? Maybe but who knows.

Can they kick this can down the road a few more years? Quite possibly.

Will we still be here when the system collapses? For sure unless were die of old age and then our kids will take up the fight.

RT

Pining 4 the Fjords's picture

Random Yellen photoshop

My head was about to explode researching and writing this...  so at some point my fevered brain started imagining what would happen if Yellen showed up to her first press conference looking like she had been in a bar fight.  So this is just sillyness, apropos of nothing.

bullion only's picture

Was it Janet

Was it Janet on the Rocky Horror Picture Show?

I'm sure most of you here have never seen it.

But then again some of you may know the time warp.

I think we are living it.

RT

flyinkel's picture

Ha Ha

I just was about the post the video and deleted it before hitting "send" thinking the big minds would not be amused.  But I was!  "Dammit Janet!"

http://www.zimbio.com/watch/jVNj6GA2MFW/Dammit+Janet/The+Rocky+Horror+Picture+Show

The "for mature audience" is a joke, really, all clothes on in this one.  Notice the coffin at the end of the vid.

Edit:  Holy Moly P4 lose any hairs writing this?  Awesome detail and analysis!  Love the part about forgetting to mention "saving" and "middle class", how astute!

Sometimes the nightmare starts out as a fairy tale.  Welcome to the Horror Show.

treefrog's picture

suxth

6th!

ribbit!

¤'s picture

exceptional

Had to log-in to H/T that post. yes   Great analysis P4

MUDbone's picture

Getting money from MT Gox....good luck!

A Zero Hedger posted this in comments:

Redemption policy with Mt Gox

Please note the following rules :
- It is not possible to withdraw less than 10 EUR.
- Withdraws lower than 100.00 EUR are on average take less than a week.
- It takes at least a month on average for withdrawals larger than 10,000 EUR
- Withdrawals greater than 50,000 EUR need to be split it into multiple transfers or you can use the International Wire payment method.
- Due to the volume of withdrawals requests, each customer is currently only allowed 1 withdrawal every 20 days (estimate)

Situation as of 17 November 2013: We are currently processing withdrawals requested six weeks ago. (Users with several withdrawals in the queue must take the 20 day rule above into account)

https://support.mtgox.com/entries/21649594-Withdrawals-and-Deposits

Sounds pretty fucked up to me.....Isn't this the biggest exchange?

Swineflogger's picture

I'll Say It Yet Again!

Pining your intellect is truly dizzying.  Thanks for putting in so much of your time on our behalf (behalves??).

In more callous pig farmer terms:  I think we are truly "fooked".

Oink

SteveW's picture

A comment on Nobels

Great post Pining.

The fact that her husband has an economics Nobel means squat. The original 5 Nobels are awarded for work of great significance. The Economics Nobel which runs on the coattails of the Nobel Foundation was funded by a Swedish bank and rewards those that are beholden to the banker's paradise we live in.

achmachat's picture

MUDbone

it seems people don't care that they can't actually cash out, as bitcoins just passed 745 USD (not a typo).

Of course it can only go UP if you have to wait 20 days before you can cash out again.

Mr. Fix's picture

Yellen will be a wave of mass destruction.

She has no policy choices whatsoever, the die has already been cast.

She is simply the ugly face of the dollar collapse in progress.

tyberious's picture

Pining one of your finest

Truly exception bio-topic piece on Yellen. Indeed her academic background and pedigree has created another ivory towered know it all, that is completely disconnect from the "little people". We have, and I hate to say it, almost achieved serfdom and will almost certainly achieve  3rd world status by 2020.

MUDbone's picture

achmachat

I am curious where all the money has gone in that exchange?  When people are buying their bitcoins they must have sufficient funds in the Gox account to purchase them so why the long delay?

It seems almost impossible to cash out a huge windfall in Btc profits!

Kind of reminds me of this:

Pining 4 the Fjords's picture

I owe a HUGE shout-out to JY896

For his help in tracking down tons of articles, speeches, etc.  I asked him if he could help me with a search engine problem, and he came back with a giant list of sources...  thank you, my friend!  I owe you many beers which I very much hope to buy you someday!

By the way... If anyone can find anything on Yellen's activities as an undergrad at Yale (she was evidently a protester but no details are out there) or her time as a recent grad/grad school activities, please post it.  There seems to be a strange gap and lack of details on her activities 1964-1975... Strange.

SMM's picture

@MUDbone - Difficult Withdrawal

Isn't that how most Ponzi Schemes begin to unravel? 

People start asking for their money, and rather than getting their money, they start getting a lot of excuses and delays. 

achmachat's picture

fun fact about Yellen:

before the "incident" she actually looked human.

p.s. I was able to obtain a snapshot of the "incident".

JY896's picture

@Pining

We'll take turns on buying the rounds... Happy to help, but it really wasn't much -- you did all the work.

Great job on the summation of her work. In addition to all of the above is my sense that she has NO IDEA of all the things she does not know, nor any apparent inclination to learn.

I feel ever more like a rat in the FedResMaze.

MUDbone's picture

Difficult Withdrawl

A Btc pumper on ZH commented the following:

It's true, but that's just Mt. Gox. The banks (likely at the direction of the government) basically took away their ability to make wire transfers. Gox is limited to (I think) 12 transfers per day now.

No one sane uses Gox to trade anymore, which is why they're no longer the largest exchange (they were pretty much the only game in town at the start of the year.)

Gox still is the biggest USD exchange from what I see.  BTC China is the biggest but I would be scared shitless trusting them or any of these exchanges!

ancientmoney's picture

I hate TA . . . especially when it's painted . . . but,

as they say, it is what it is.

Toby Connor is still on the fence.  He has been saying for weeks, and still thinks the bankers are trying to push gold down to June lows, or lower . . . he doesn't know if they can do it, but if they do, he thinks a final dump by the bankers of prodigious amounts of paper gold may drop price under $1100.  Then they will change course and buy everything in sight.

In an earlier article, he said if they succeed at this maneuver, it will be a very short-term one, and gold will start streaking back up to old all-time highs within months.

Is this all preparation for a collapse of the system as we know it?  A reset of the financial system, with gold becoming the new reserve asset?

Yes, this article was posted at Kitco, but Connor is not a banker apologist, or even a gold bear.  He says what he sees, and he sees the bankers trying to grind down gold prices even more--so they can achieve even greater gains when the worm turns.  Will paper gold exist when this happens?  It may for awhile, until the bankers have exchanged their paper for claims on real phyzz--which they have already established.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Conner/2013-11-15-Gold-Will-It-Drop-to-1-000-or-Was-the-Bottom-Formed-this-Summer.html

MUDbone's picture

Toby Connor is Gary

Toby Connor is Gary Savage!

Toby Connor is Gary Savage!

Toby Connor is Gary Savage!

Toby Connor is Gary Savage!

And Gary Savage was predicting gold to go up all last spring while it plummeted.

He is wrong as much as he is right.

ancientmoney's picture

@MUDbone re: Connor/Savage . . .

"Toby Connor is Gary Savage!

And Gary Savage was predicting gold to go up all last spring while it plummeted.

He is wrong as much as he is right."

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

So what?  Just about everybody else in the PM community was wrong, too, except for a very small number of analysts.  TA has pointed to rising PM prices many times the last two years, and all have been defeated by the bankers. 

I Run Bartertown's picture

Pining!

I kept copying parts to respond to, but there were too many.  This is a more insightful vetting of a public figure than I've ever seen from 'media'. I now know more about this woman than most of the senators will when they vote.

I find her background oddly encouraging...raises the possibility of the bumbling academic being allowed too close to the machinery and getting caught up in it.

It's times like these, though, that we should be extra grateful that we don't survive by trying to buy wheat in a market in Cairo. We will eventually pay the piper on a grand scale, but many others will first. I wonder if her arrival comes with any policy shift ... should we maintain an international body-count of the victims of Fed policy impacting commodity prices?

ancientmoney's picture

Given the subject of this fine article . . .

I had to dust this photo off one more time:

20131114_Yellen1.jpg

ancientmoney's picture

I guess Yellen had to be their choice . . .

after Bernanke tried to jawbone the "taper" and the markets went bonkers, with bond yields rising like a tsunami. 

That response to mere words told them no hawk was going to be able to keep the ponzi going for long--had to have a mild dove in command, to make it look like the party has just started.

Bollocks's picture

Anyone fancy a good laugh?

With the JFK anniversary in a few days, the UK tv channels have been showing some documentaries about him.

Well, yesterday evening they showed a NEW one on Channel 5 which was being touted in the run-up as the final definitive proof of who shot JFK. Oh, right, I thought, this might be interesting (they were subtly suggesting it wasn't Oswald).

So, in the first 30 mins or so they showed that Oswald fired the first shot that hit JFK in the neck (cough!), but then showed that the final fatal shot couldn't have come from him as he didn't have the time to fire the 3 shots that had (apparently) been shot that day. Oo-err, I thought. Do tell me more...

Well, after a horribly long-winded 50 minutes the conclusion that was drawn was that a CIA officer, in the vehicle directly behind JFK's limo, stood up and swung round as he heard the shot from Oswald in the depository window, and he had (some kind of mini) machine-gun in his hand - and as he swung round with the gun in his hand his thumb took the safety catch off but then he accidentally pressed the trigger.

The gun was swinging past the back of JFK's head as he did this and a bullet from the gun hit JFK.

RIGHT.

Yes, this documentary was presented as the final mystery having now finally been solved.

ERRR... RIGHT. Funny how NOBODY in 50 years has said they saw a gun go off in the car right behind JFK's limo. That would have been pretty damn obvious, eh? Or that they saw an officer stand up, swing round, and he had a machine gun in his hand. Thousands of eyes were looking right into that area (but this point was never raised).

JEEZ.

What an utter pile of crap. Channel 5 wasted an hour of my life.

They shall receive a bill.

(better read pining's post now).

I Run Bartertown's picture

Nov. 18 (UPI) -- The Dubai

Nov. 18 (UPI) -- The Dubai Air Show drew in nearly $150 billion in airplane orders from top global airlines.

Boeing led the rally with $100 billion in sales of its new jet, the 777x, putting the Chicago-based company ahead of the $40 billion posted by its European rival, Airbus.
http://www.upi.com/blog/2013/11/18/Boeing-orders-near-100-billion-leading-record-sales/5551384788535/#ixzz2l2PmIaU1

----------------

Record sales of plane orders would seem to point to recovery and growth somewhere. 2/3 or more (at least 175 out of 259) were sold to Emirates Airline, Qatar Airways, and Etihad Airways.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/boeing-sets-record-with-777x-jetliner-launch-2013-11-17

ancientmoney's picture

TF metals report article picked up by GATA . . .

Whitecastle123's picture

Ancient money

Thanks for posting that pic.   Mmmmmmm.

Bollocks's picture

Pining - re Yellen

"There seems to be a strange gap and lack of details on her activities 1964-1975... Strange."

As achmachat shows, it's possible she was being "probed" surprise.

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