Raising Your Trader's "Inner Game" is Crucial

What is Trading? Trading is a game of skill. It is also a game of force. It is also a game of relative speed. It is a game of judgment and evaluation information. These are obvious things to the observer of the activity of trading. All of these things go into the algorithmic computer programs which are used to trade the markets.

Well, if that is the case – how is it that when you ask a trader what is the most difficult thing about trading, they begin to reply in very subtle zen-like concepts, sometimes invoking martial arts, and always referring in some way to knowing yourself. They are – in short – talking about trading as if it is something to do with psychology and understanding of humanity. Above all, they keep using the word “emotion”.

No computer has emotions and computers can trade – so what is all that about? As I once heard somebody say about coming out of the theater from a viewing of Samuel Beckett’s play “Waiting For Godo” .... He said “It was all very interesting. But what does it mean?”

*************

A true story which seems unrelated, but isn’t. It's right on topic. I was on vacation, staying at a hotel on a famous salmon river to do some fishing. So one day I am wading deep in the river casting my fly and basically enjoying myself, and along the other bank comes the hotel ghillie (instructor pro fisherman) with another guest. So the guest gets into the water and begins to cast. I am on the other side keeping one eye on my own activity and the other eye on my newly arrived colleague other side.

Usually a fly caster uses his rod like a whip throwing the line backwards and behind, then he reverses the movement throwing it forwards.

Pretty much like this short video shows:

http://howtoflyfish.orvis.com/video-lessons/13-fly-casting/235-overhead-cast-importance-of-the-pause-and-rod-angles

The guest on the other side begins to fish, casting with his fly rod, and instantly my interest level rises significantly. He is using a trick cast called the speycast. (I had read about speycasting, which looks very clever, before then but reading about it does not teach a practical expertise skill. The spey cast helps in all kinds of ways. Unlike the to and fro overhead cast, it is all circular movement instead, and it allows the angler to avoid his fly passing behind him where it may snag in the trees or undergrowth before he catapults it out and forwards over the water towards the fish. Here is a short video, to see the circular movements involved:

http://howtoflyfish.orvis.com/video-lessons/13-fly-casting/394-basic-spey-casting

I instantly recognized a need to watch and learn something valuable that I couldn’t do, and I stopped fishing and for the next half hour observed my colleague. (Traders should recognize an embryonic trader’s trait in this decision.) Then I went back to fishing.

Later that evening I spoke with the ghille and mentioned how impressed I was by my opposition during the day. He replied that at the beginning of the day his beginner client could not cast at all, and so he taught him to cast only with the spey technique because it would work on the place they were to fish that day, but his client could not cast in any other but that way, in short he was a one trick pony, but with a good trick! This amazed me – I had about five years of experience but I had been so impressed by a novice! But he could do something I could not do and I knew it. It is most illuminating to realize that an apparently invincible opposition was actually a one trick pony behind one in every other skill within the toolbox!

This was instantly remedied and we went into the pub, I bought a pint of beer for each of us, and brought them out onto the grassy lawn out front and got out my salmon fly rod from the car. One pint and 30 minutes later I could cast spey style, and double spey style like a pro, and we returned to the hotel bar for another pint. I now had acquired a new skill which would improve as time passed and I practised using it. (The quick reaction to the need for acquiring a new skill is another trader’s trait.)

So much for fishing – let’s get back to survival in the financial markets.

*************

We are like explorer- innovators figuring things out pretty much on our own. Assimilating information from all sides, but we must then prioritize that information keeping the good and discarding the bad. This more difficult than it sounds.

We must learn the mechanical techniques necessary. Many would be traders stop learning after that, and they suffer great loss as a result.

You see, the markets are also like a contact sport, where our trading colleagues are also opponents. So their responses must be taken into account. Move; anticipate response tackle or feint from the other side; make correct next move in response. This trading business is starting to sound a bit like a game of chess now. But let’s move onwards even more.

*************

After a while the market surprisingly turns out to be a sort of weird mirror. Let me explain what I mean by that. A tentative traders gets in too late, after wasting time waiting for added clues to add surety to a decision, which becomes a late decision. An overly competitive trader wants the excitement and can’t wait to get into the next trade. He or she probably enters too early, before enough clues have been received from the market, make too many trades and has a lower winning to losing trade ratio as a result.

There is a strong tendency for each type of trader to get a different response from the market, and that response depends upon what the trader puts into the market. So it’s like a mirror, a sparring partner sort of mirror. Did you notice the use of the words “sparring partner”. Yes it’s is like a sparring partner. The punch you throw, causes a certain number of possible responses to come back at you. But if you throw a different type of punch at this market sparring partner, the response seems to be selected from a different “list” of responses appropriate to that initial action of yours.

So it is a physical contact or combat opponent sport, and it is a mental one too.

*************

But if you act in coordination with a group of similar minded traders you have a crowd, a virtual team of traders like yourself, and there is strength in numbers. When you are one of many thousands of bulls, and long, and your “team” punches the market upwards, towards victory and profit, the benefits of having joined the team become clear. But the team is a visible group and being visible, the colleagues on the other side, bears in this case, can make a counter attack, aiming at selling prices down to capture your stops, positions, and money, so they have a team too!

Hmmm .... also a team sport, but members can swop teams at any time, or even sit on the sidelines for a while before going back in and joining what appears to be the winning team of the moment.

Now I’ve brought up crowd management, estimation of odds in combat between two teams, estimation of the acquisition and attrition rates of the number of team members on each side. This is becoming a bit like wargaming now with battles, or very physical team sports. But, but .... we can choose what teams we join, leave teams, stop playing, swop sides and those are undoubtedly purely mental decisions. All we have to do is decide correctly, so it’s back to strategy again and mental performance based upon our own personality and knowledge.

Where am I going with this? I am talking about scarce resources and the training of ourselves!

I would like to recommend four books as being particularly suitable for traders to upgrade their game. One is about trading. It’s a trading classic, and, after MacKay, it’s compulsory reading in my opinion, and apparently many other traders’ opinions. For it is highly recommended by many of the best in the business. But none of these four books is a newly written title. They are decades old, and these particular ones will go on and on and, I think, never wear out.

The other three books are small little books, and quickly read from start to finish. They are more subtle. You need to lose a bit of money in bad trades, then you modify your approach, and then you somehow lose a bit more. So you study a bit, upgrade your techniques, and after you restart you you still lose a bit more! Now you begin to look at your inner game, and begin to doubt your ability to actually succeed at this trading game. Now is the very best time to read these other less well known books I am going to recommend. But you will find a strange desire kicking in every 12 or 24 months or so to get them back off the shelf and refresh your memory. They seem to still apply after you have raised your game, because you can always raise your game still more. I hope the reason will be clear to those “who are willing to give it a go”.

Here they are:

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefevre (a pseudonym for Jesse Livermore, one of the greatest traders of all time)

Games People Play: The Psychology of Human Relationships by Eric Berne M.D.

Mastery by George Leonard

Zen in The Art of Archery by Eugen Herrigal

At this stage I could make a summary of these books, and a little review. But I won’t! (Readers who comment in the blog might like to give their own personal comments about them for an independent view). I’ll just say in general they are about learning to use what you have the best way you can in difficult circumstances and stay happy about the mistakes and setbacks that inevitably occur while moving forwards. Reading Berne right after finishing Lefevre is a very good idea.

So I will just make a strong suggestion that every trader should read them once, and after that as often as it takes to see the weakness within and foil it’s temptations to step out blindly into the next patch of quicksand that the market contains so many of.

Best wishes to all.

Argentus Maximus

.

The author posts daily commentary on the gold and silver markets in the TFMR forum: The Setup For The Big Trade. More information about the author can be found here: RhythmNPrice.

45 Comments

Urban Roman's picture

I have learned over the last decade or so

... that I suck at trading.

Thanks for the article, A M. I just may look up some of those references.

I do know this:
markets

It's good if you can spot the 'Takeoff' or 'Enthusiasm' phase, enter there, and then get out before the 'Bull trap' phase.

worldend666's picture

Nice reading list

The smartest thing Jesse Livermore ever did was put 5m$ in a trust where he would have no access to it, save for living expenses, allowing him to die a rich man.

Even he wasn't able to master the market, having accumulated over 100m$ shorting the 1929 crash, he subsequently lost the lot.

Only the house can win in the long run (speaking from plenty of bitter experience).

F.Capra's picture

Following on the Livermore Observation

Gold and silver held in your hands is our current equivalent of the smartest thing Livermore ever did! Add a bit each month or so.

argentus maximus's picture

I have never seen this

I have never seen this discussed, but it is very possible that Jesse Livermore, who lost three multi million fortunes during his career achieved exactly what he wanted to do ... deep inside wanted to do? Wouldn't such a genius who did something repeatedly have a real reason to do it again. We should not dismiss possible real cause for such repetition from such a genius. What similar "causes" lurk within ourselves?

That is why I mentioned Berne's concept of the inner mind games people play - at a subconscious level - and how it affects their real life decisions. I will say here - Berne's thesis applies to me in some ways, and I'm glad to be able to sometimes cut certain urges off before they go too far through awareness of these tendencies.

Not an endorsement of Amazon, but these links from Amazon are handy due to providing a quick list of reader's reviews:

http://www.amazon.com/Games-People-Play-Transactional-Analysis/dp/0345410033

http://www.amazon.com/Zen-Art-Archery-Eugen-Herrigel/dp/0375705090

http://www.amazon.com/Mastery-Keys-Success-Long-Term-Fulfillment/dp/0452267560

http://www.amazon.com/Reminiscences-Stock-Operator-Edwin-Lefevre/dp/0934380112

They are all published a long time ago with millions of copies in existence. I expect all are available electronically.

gold slut's picture

FIFF!

So far I have had a Furst, a Turd and now a Fiff.  If I get the whole set, do I win a prize?

gold slut's picture

@ AMaximus

Wonderful post, I will be looking into your reading recommendations later.

Have to say two things though.

1st, as myself and wifey crawl in the front door most days after a monster day at work and barely have the energy left to decide what to have for dinner, I don't think the trading part of your post is going to mean much to us.  (Gold slut school of economics - 'if PMs are cheap, buy them, if not, don't'.

2nd, those reads are going on my 'to read' list.  Since joining TFmetals, my 'to read' list takes me to about 2015, but will tack them on the end.

Great post AM!

worldend666's picture

>>I have never seen this

>>I have never seen this discussed, but it is very possible that Jesse Livermore, who lost three multi million fortunes during his career achieved exactly what he wanted to do ... deep inside wanted to do? 

It didn't sound that he sabotaged himself on purpose in his memoirs when he chastised himself for following someone else's advice on a trade. He was really angry.

Still you never know. Not much remains of him publicly so it's hard to know who he really was.

I am also curious about his death. His wife was previously married to several men who committed suicide and he went out the same way. No foul play was suspected. Creepy stuff. Room 1408 anyone?

I also read somewhere Jim Sinclair based his magic numbers he calls angels on some secret Livermore system based on square numbers (or something like that). Of course it has to be nonsense. Nothing Livermore developed with a pencil could rival the processing power available today, so the chance he stumbled upon a magic formula that would still work today is not very high.

Anyway what a character. The book you referenced is a very entertaining read and inspired me to go ahead and lose much money :)

argentus maximus's picture

@worldend666 PM me your email

@worldend666

PM me your email if you would like me to send you something about square numbers.

Pete's picture

My trading bible

My trading bible is Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas.  His "Five Fundamental Truths of Trading" and "I am a consistent winner because" encapsulate the whole enchilada for me.

First the trader must establish objective criteria for good edges in his market of interest.  Most successful traders use mathematical models of some kind for this purpose.  After that, the issues of self-management loom large.  Introspection--looking inward to observe one's state of mind while trading--is necessary to monitor the susceptibility for making errors.  Errors come from reacting to four flavors of fear: fear of being wrong, fear of losing money, fear of missing out on a trade, and fear of not having enough.

Once the trader discovers that he, and not the market, is the source of  his losses, the game can be enjoined in earnest.

Mr. Fix's picture

I don't trade anymore,

it was disastrous.

But then again, I know far more now than I did then, and probably would not repeat the same mistakes. 

I have a serious aversion to betting on things that are outside of my own control, and that is probably somewhat limiting. (I only go for the sure thing now).wink

Thank you for the information you have provided in this article, 

there is still so much that I need to learn.

I will at least look up the books on human relationships and mastery, 

these are topics that interest me greatly.

argentus maximus's picture

Re: Bitcoin Bubble

Mantis:

You said: "But my point that bitcoins is an unmanipulated market remains."

You assume that because one must hold bitcoins to sell them, and naked shorting is not possible to our knowledge, that manipulation is impossible.

I think you are wrong. There are many ways to manipulate values to interfere with trading flow.

The extreme volatility present right now is probably a warning from those like to print all the money. They can buy some Bitcoins, accumulate a position, and then dump it hard, later restarting the process over again. Pump and dump has worked for decades and hasn't stopped working yet. If you won't buy a pump & dump stock would you buy a pump & dump bitcoin?  Yes I know ... range trade it. Let us know next year how it worked out.

ReachWest's picture

No Bitcoin - But I wish I had some to sell today.

Thank-you, Argentus. I am not a trader. I have lost lots of fiat trying to dabble in the trading game. Today, I stack, I watch, I listen and I worry for my kids (while trying to enjoy each day in this current paradigm).

I am of a similar mind when it comes to Bitcoin. Hindsight is so, so nice. I would love to have purchased a sizeable position in Bitcoins at those not so far back low levels and sold them near today's level  (ultimately converting the digital whatever-it-is into Gold coins) - but alas, I did not and if I was able to move back in time and (knowing how the nefarious financial powers work), I probably would repeat my performance of non involvement.

How difficult would it be for the the Fed (or other high level power manipulators) to dump a few hundred million into Bitcoin to pump it up? The answer is, it would not be difficult. It would be logical for them to make this move. Inflate it - dump it and kill it. Demotivate the entire Bitcoin community. It would not surprise me if  that is what is happening as we discuss this. No thanks - no bitcoin for me - I'll stick with my physical, time proven vessel for holding value.

Thanks for a great article.

redwood's picture

Thanks for that good post

Thanks for that good post argentus.  I think I read somewhere that Livermore may have suffered from bipolar disorder, a lifelong condition that leads to unpredictable periods of overactivity, elation, sometimes grandiosity, often followed by depressive periods.  We  do know that Livermore tragically committed suicide and almost certainly was in a serious depressive period in his life.

But his book is a must read for any trader.  Unfortunately bipolar individuals can be prone to a gambling orientation, but if the condition is paired with superior intelligence there can be profound periods of high productivity and creativity.  I think Livermore probably fell in that category.

His adherence to first principles is what I admired most about his writing.  "Reading the tape" still applies.  Though algo trading now dominates the market, it may be even more important today than then.

"Being right and sitting tight" though sage is much more complicated in today's market as I think the snapshot time frames for this approach are much briefer.  What is right for today can certainly ruin you tomorrow.

Livermore had a natural gift for reading the sentiment of traders.  That gave him a tremendous edge.

DayStar's picture

Harvey's Up! (TFMR)

  • Keith Barron: The situation in Europe continues to be fairly grim. S&P has lowered the credit rating of France in the last week. We have also seen the general strike in Greece, the transport strike in Portugal, and the employment rates are not being improved at all in the PIIG countries. “So, the situation remains very dire, and if they don’t start to throw massive amounts of QE at the tragedy in Europe, from the ECB, things could really get out of control in a hurry. We are talking about major civil unrest, especially in places like Greece.
  • Keith Barron: Luxury goods, meaning portable wealth, are hyperinflating around the world. This situation is really quite astounding. Christie’s just had an auction of contemporary and post World War II art, and they shattered the all-time record for an art auction. The total sales from just that one auction were a staggering $691 million. That is a truly outlandish number. Christie’s crushed the record for a single work of art at that auction as well. The $142.4 million art piece appeared, to me, to be purchased by a Chinese buyer. At another auction, there was a 14.8-carat diamond that sold for $35.5 million. As KWN reported, the next day there was a pink diamond sold by Sotheby’s, also in Geneva, for a breathtaking $83 million. This is truly remarkable what is taking place here. I don’t think the rest of the world is really appreciating what’s happening right now, but portable wealth, and I mean at the very top-end, is going ballistic. I need to clarify here that this unbelievable situation appears to be being fueled by a great many Chinese buyers who are aggressively exiting US dollars.
  • David Stockman: Frankly I thought Yellen's testimony was appalling. It was superficial, mechanical, naive, and disingenuous. I would start with one of the direct questions she got from one of the senators, ‘Are you monetizing the debt?’ She (Yellen) said, ‘No, we are only carrying out the directions of Congress.’ That (answer) is just absurd. “Yellen has been part of this Fed system since the 1990s. Just start with the year 2000: The balance sheet of the Fed was $500 billion. Today it’s pushing $4 trillion. That’s an eight-fold increase just in this century. She’s been part of it all along, and if that isn’t monetizing the debt, (then) I don’t know what the word means.
  • David Stockman on the end game: The Fed's actions to date leave us in a very precarious state. Almost anyone who thinks about this rationally knows it can’t go on much longer. When you are buying $85 billion a month of bonds and GSE paper (at a time) when you are entering the fifth year of an economic expansion, you’ve almost reached the point of absurdity. And yet they’ve backed themselves into this corner, and she (Yellen) was one of the architects of how we got here. They (the Fed) did it one step at a time, one excuse at a time, one rationalization at a time. Now they are deep into this corner and they have no idea how to get out.
  • Egon von Greyerz: The US debt has grown 17-times, from $1 trillion to $17 trillion in the last three decades, but tax revenue has only grown from $1 trillion to $2.5 trillion. This means that debt is growing unbelievably faster than tax revenue. But what is so important to understand here is that tax revenue is supposed to repay the debt. But instead of repaying the debt, the US has increased the debt by $1 trillion each year in the last few years.
  • Egon von Greyerz: As we know, the physical market is very strong and there is continued robust demand, particularly from the East. But we will see a dramatic change in the gold market in 2014. As the dollar and other currencies fall, gold will reflect this, and it will more than regain the lost ground in the past 2 years. This will be a very exciting time for gold and silver investors. The cyclical bear market is coming to an end, and the wind will once again be at the backs of gold and silver bulls.
  • Art Cashing on his worries about the economy going forward (KWN): Number one, that the bond market may decide it’s not going to wait for the Fed. It’s going to make some adjustments. And if interest rates begin to move independent of the Fed, that could be a devastating problem. Secondly, some of the recent data has weakened. In case of an exogenous event, was there any gas left in the tank? You are already at zero rates. You’ve done quantitative easing. Heaven forbid if something came up and the economy slowed, what is left in the gas tank?
  • GoldCore on the latest World Gold Council report: There is continued consumer growth in China. Total consumer demand was 210t in Q3 2013, a rise of 18% compared to the same period last year. Central banks continue to be strong buyers of gold, albeit at a slower rate. Q3 2013 was the 11th consecutive quarter of net purchases of gold. Jewellery consumption in South East Asia, outside China, was also strong.
  • Hong Kong was up 28%, Vietnam up 14%, Thailand up 57% and Indonesia up 19% on the same quarter last year albeit off low bases. Government regulations in India are dampening demand figures. India recorded a 32% decline in consumer demand compared to the same quarter last year. However year to date, demand remains robust, up 19% compared to the first three quarters of 2012, following the surge in demand sparked by two price falls earlier in 2013.
  • Harvey: GOFO numbers are now becoming less positive for all out months except the first month, but all GOFO rates are still positive. GLD: Gold was unchanged at 865.71 tonnes. SLV: Silver lost a huge 1.637 million oz to stand at 10,392.89.

All this and more on...

The Harvey Report! smiley

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/365575#comment-365575

DayStar

Spartacus Rex's picture

Gold And Silver – When Fundamentals Fail And Charts Prevail

Michael Noonan | November 17, 2013

There is a decline in the number of reads in our articles that do not provide a fully developed “fundamental” story about why gold and silver should be much higher in price, [but are not]. Relying upon charts to more accurately capture the developing “story” does not capture the imagination of as many readers, for whatever reason. We attribute this to Confirmation Bias where a reader wants to read an article that confirms his/her beliefs. The accuracy/validity/truth may or may not be true, but is satisfies an emotional need for affirmation.

[...]

Fundamentals are relative, charts are absolute. They accurately reflect all that is going on, regardless of reasoning/motivation. A few, or some, the number[s] do not matter, have no regard for the validity of PM charts which reflect a bogus paper market. To an extent, the paper markets are bogus, but the number of contracts being sold are large, much larger than buyers, and this ironically reflects the reality of supply v demand.

[...]

Right now, the charts are letting us know that higher PM prices are unlikely to occur anytime soon. Barring some kind of “overnight surprise” that will shock the markets, odds favor lower prices over higher prices unless and until demand shows up in chart activity.

[...]

gold price weekly 15 november 2013 price

The best feature about buying physical gold and silver is that charts do not matter. Just keep on buying, especially at these lower prices. These low levels may last for some time, but timing is less of an issue for accumulating tangible assets that cannot be debased and have no counterparty risk. Beat the central bankers at their own game.

Full article: http://goldsilverworlds.com/price/gold-and-silver-when-fundamentals-fail-and-charts-prevail/

Spartacus Rex's picture

Koos Jansen: West to East gold distribution update

West To East Gold Distribution Update

 
The great distribution of wealth and power, facilitated by gold, from west to east is still going strong. From looking at available global trade numbers we know the main gold vein runs from the UK through Switzerland, through Hong Kong, eventually reaching Shanghai. Let's take a look at the latest data.

Starting Point: The London Vaults

It started in January when the UK, home of the London Gold Market, net exported 74 tons of gold to Switzerland. As we can see in the chart below this is not unusual, we saw similar events in the beginning and in the end of 2011. But this year export accelerated to a spike May, in which 237 tons were net exported to the Swiss. A staggering amount of gold, nearly as much as the official gold reserves of the Bank Of England. Through the summer these exports remained elevated, year to date the UK has net exported 1235 tons of gold in total, of which 1109 tons to Switzerland.

 
UK+Gold+Trade+2008-2013+09-13.png
 

[...]

 

Net export from Hong Kong to the mainland is 826 tons of gold year to date.

Hong+Kong+-+China+gold+trade+9-2013.png
Just the official route has brought 826 tons of gold to China year to date, annualized 1100 tons. If we add 400 tons Chinese mining supply the total is 1500 tons othat will meet demand. 
 
Whilst the World Gold Council estimates Chinese consumer demand will be over 1000 tons, my estimate is it will be over2000 tons. In my humble opinion just the official route raises a few eyebrows to the WGC demand numbers. If we then take into account gold is also shipped into China through other ports than Hong Kong, more eyebrows are raised. 
 
In a future post I will describe in detail how I calculated my estimate.
 
In Gold We Trust
 
 

Full article: http://koosjansen.blogspot.com/2013/11/west-to-east-gold-distribution-update.html

Occasnltrvlr's picture

Very Sorry, I'm "Barging In" Here

Certainly this is OT;  not intending to derail or obfuscate the topic.

The Chaplain sez (paraphrasing here):  The EE haz ther' azz az much az they haz yur azz.

Here's evidence of this man's assertion:

P.S., For me, in my mind, some of Karen Hudes' 4,000+ loose screws are finding their ways into myriad pre-drilled, pre-tapped holes.  I'm still thinking she's overly-optimistic about the modeling she cites, but I AM NOT writing her off.

JY896's picture

BitCoin question + broader market manipulation

@ReachWest -- I put this in the other thread before I saw your post -- I'll go one further for you:

Given the relatively small total current market value of all BitCoin in existence, and the slow rate of currency creation, what is to stop a large bank from throwing a few $B at it, buying up the entire supply, then proceeding to manage its exchange rate the same way they do everything else? It's a little difficult to own the majority of money supply in USD or JPY, but BTC? Why not?

And if this, just for the sake of argument, is currently underway, where could one expect BTC valuation to wind up? Couldn't the bank(s) just keep selling the currency from one subsidiary to the other until it reaches some arbitrary number, say around $100?

The other question asks the same about COMEX contracts -- why couldn't an authorized entity set up two accounts by subsidiaries, and book the profit of the short sale in one, the loss of the long acquisition in the other, theoretically stay flat but nevertheless by itself define the market price of the underlying being traded?

Urban Roman's picture

Bitcoin

Couple of things keep the banks from manipulating it.

  • First, it was designed to be as much as possible like the coins in your pocket. Hence the name. You can't short it. If contracts are written around it, you could short the contracts, but such contracts do not exist at this time.
  • Second, they can't buy up all the bitcoin unless someone is willing to sell them. There seem to be an increasing number of hoarders out there. I understand that the Winklevii have bought up about 1% of them, so there's that.

But interestingly, you can automate your trading, if you wish. Some of the exchanges have published their API, and being the nerds they are, some bitcoin traders have written their own bots. It'd be interesting to see if JPM's quants can write better bots or not... might have to get Sergei out of jail to work on it.

agNau's picture

It is time to address.......

the 100 year charter of the Syndicate.
Buried I am certain will be the opportunity for discussion by those most decimated by this pox on the world. Seemingly small
decisions by the syndicate have ramifications around the world affecting even the most innocent. Inconvenience and loss of wealth to us, and loss of the last crumbs of life's sustenance in some areas of our world.....that keystroke a death sentence.

What is coming will be worse than the prior which will be seen in retrospect as a warm up......evil.

We as a community have knowledge of the depth and breadth of the system of control that is not commonly held. We know the source and planned destruction with increasing clarity....as the days pass fruition of that plan.

*****
Will we find our selves asking ......"could I have done something to stop this?"
The collapse of our money system is in the bag......but will we stand by and accept and allow rule over our lives? 300+million people in this country....regrettably undereducated....their learning curve is speeding up with the ACA realities.(parts of the new slavery can themselves be distractions....) We are kept continually reeling from one event to the next in sensory overload. No major media press of the coming renewal of the FED charter......by design. The most powerful actuary over the world, and press is non existent. ..............it is time to shine a light.....everywhere we can.
Think........there are groups of freedom lovers beating their heads against the syndicate henchmen.....a slight redirection is all that is necessary to focus the power of millions........a little education.... It will not slow your stacking or preparation....it may help.
I have been working locally. You can too. You owe it to your country, your world......yourself.
These are the "Calvary" I spoke of sometime back.
We can work together to bring the world back to right.......or we can slave side by side.
"Did I do all I could?"

DeaconBenjamin's picture

Effect of QE

A new report from the McKinsey Global Institute examines the distributional effects of these ultra-low rates. It finds that there have been significant effects on different sectors in the economy in terms of income interest and expense. From 2007 to 2012, governments in the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, and the United States collectively benefited by $1.6 trillion, both through reduced debt-service costs and increased profits remitted by central banks (see the chart below). Nonfinancial corporations – large borrowers such as governments – benefited by $710 billion as the interest rates on debt fell. Although ultra-low interest rates boosted corporate profits in the United Kingdom and the United States by 5% in 2012, this has not translated into higher investment, possibly as a result of uncertainty about the strength of the economic recovery, as well as tighter lending standards. Meanwhile, households in these countries together lost $630 billion in net interest income, although the impact varies across groups. Younger households that are net borrowers have benefited, while older households with significant interest-bearing assets have lost income.

McKinsey estimates that households in the US have lost a cumulative $360 billion. Meanwhile, banks and businesses have done very well.

From John Mauldin's email.  Also published in the UK Telegraph.

ReachWest's picture

Bitcoin Control

@JY896 .. An interesting premise. I am exceptionally suspicious of the big fiat power brokers trying to control any alternative to their various fiat currencies. If Bitcoin truly is a free and clear non-trackable alternative currency, then they will attack it. The most logical way to achieve that would be take positions of consequence over time.  It would not surprise me if the MOPE strategy for Bitcoin is documented in some power brokers "Action Plan" in some secret vault some place.

I know some folks say the architecture of the Bitcoin system makes it impossible to manipulate .. But what about controlling perception? That might not be so difficult. 

Urban Roman's picture

U.S. Agencies to say Bitcoins Offer Legitimate Benefits

Just in from BBG ...

Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, is also weighing in on the hearing, saying that it has no plans to regulate the currency.

“Although the Federal Reserve generally monitors developments in virtual currencies and other payments system innovations, it does not necessarily have authority to directly supervise or regulate these innovations or the entities that provide them to the market,” Bernanke wrote in a letter to the committee.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-18/u-s-agencies-to-say-bitcoins-offer-legitimate-benefits.html

Urban Roman's picture

http://bitcoincharts.com/

You know how the financial "industry" makes you wait for relevant trading data? How Turd gets a COT report that is four days stale by the time it is published?

With bitcoin, you can watch it in real time. Your bot, if you choose to employ one, can watch it in real time too. (give or take some internet delay)

Bitcoincharts has a nice news feed:
http://bitcoincharts.com/headlines.rss

And then there's this site, which gives insight into the blockchain:
https://blockchain.info/

You can actually drill down and look at individual transactions:
https://blockchain.info/tree/97456559

Obviously if it really takes off, JPM, Goldman, et al, are going to sic their nerds on it. They'll probably lobby congress to tilt the playing field, too. But for now it's a free market.

Mantis's picture

bitcoins pump n dump

If you look at the chart bitcoin so far after every 'pump' has never fallen below its starting point on the 'dump'. If you have the stomach for the volatility (which makes silver looks very tame by comparison) and can control your emtions, of fear and greed you are winning by huge margin just by holding. This pump has started from about $200 , I doubt it will fall below that ever again.

Mantis's picture

Trading view

This website has really good free tools for technical analysis. Only downside is at the moment it only has Mtgox data for bitcoins

https://www.tradingview.com/e/Cy2xGmLY/

Peoples Front of Judea's picture

Pump n Dump

How long before the "GOOD OLE BOYS" at Langley turn some of their 100 acres of super computers onto Bitcoins and mine the shit out of them.......And then dump the lot... to shatter the confidence in them

Mantis's picture

mining the shit out of it won't work

the system has a factor called 'difficulty' which prevents that. If supercomputers where to start mining the shit out of it the difficulty would increase to compensate.

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