Gold & Politics & being a Tracker

Are there political cyclical tracks left behind in the price of inflation defense assets like for example gold?

This is not an investigation in the normal sense as will become clear below. More like a presentation of some relationships which may or may not be primarily inter-causal. It’s not looking at any particular presidential or royal person, but because I will use dollar based gold charts, it appears to focus upon the US. I said “appears” because .... well ... what one politician does in for example the US, maybe another politician in .... oh ... let’s say Japan or the UK or even the EU ... that other politician just might consider that thing a clever thing to do too. You know: birds of a feather and so on.

So rather than read all the newspapers, and blogs, and political biographies, and cross reference their contents to decisions, which create events, which make investors alter their asset allocation decisions I decided to take a different approach. One disliked by many for good and bad reasons, but you know it works too.

If you look at them in a certain way, presidents and congresses and parliaments are large societal collective organisms. I like to think of them that way for research purposes. It’s enabling for me. They are so big, they might be considered the elephants of society.

Let’s imagine we are trying to locate elephants hidden in the bush. We can do it many ways.

How about we take the secret service “James Bond” approach. “Q” will build us an artificial elephant with cameras and microphones hidden inside. It will cost a vast amount, but what the  heck, the taxman just gets us more money when the last lot is gone! Our drone elephant will make itself know to the herd with a credible cover story and infiltrate the elephants, and relay regular reports back so we can study their behaviour, motivation, and private conversations. And if it’s discovered we can point to the made in China sticker carefully stuck on it’s backside and make a plausible denial!

But the voice on the phone said to me: “Sorry the secret service are busy, and won’t help. They’re all off doing ... uh .... something  ... err .... somewhere right now. Please call later and we can set up a meeting.”

We could take the NSA approach! There is a private company Blackie, Blackbridge, Blackpebble or something like that and they can recruit this wonderful force of sniper taggers just for us. A contractor (no government employee would be allowed – it’s the law!) will shoot a GPS location device into each elephant, and then we can get NASA to launch a satellite (it’s small dammit ... the budget’s no problem!) which detects the tags, and relay that information to our HQ bunker in .... well I sure would like to tell you, but you don’t have clearance. Yes. I can see that that would work.

Or alternatively we could be naturalists. We would buy the latest behavioural research on elephant and their habits. Then we would know what they do, and where they tend to go at different times. That would narrow down the possible locations to only a few, and we send out our scouts and viola!

That sounds likely to succeed.

How about this. We make like predators. Those lazy lions and crocodiles are taking it easy all day at the water hole. Those big elephants need to drink a lot and they’re sure to come to the lions & crocs eventually when they have to. We could wait there too. But our elephant stakeout operatives might get mud on them, and dirty their suits, or be eaten by a lion. Health & Safety Dept would be sure to nix it. That one’s right out!

How about this?  We become like trackers.

We get someone to follow the tracks left behind by all the Presidents and Politicians, I mean the elephants of course, and see where they went and what happened in those places. But the legal department says this has a problem. Like for example if the presidential elephants all go to a certain place, and a whole load of stuff happens, then we won’t have a smoking gun! They can deny they had anything to do with, I mean they had means, motive, opportunity, but where ‘s the witness?

Well if it’s just our own private investigation, we won’t need one. Will we? So trackers we are then. Just for this article you understand! We will follow the massive piles of political – I mean elephant - poop until we find .... err ... it’s source I guess. Also: that last sentence works on so many levels ....

And so dear reader, after my lengthy preamble I give you your first elephant sized footprint: the 4 year Presidential cycle in US gold prices:

Well I find that interesting.

Plausible denial and the scientific method – you figure which - requires that I mention there is absolutely no proof this has anything whatsoever to do with the activities of anybody from anywhere, and the 4 years length is circumstantial and unproven.

I hear a little voice saying: “But if there actually is a Presidential cycle in gold, well what about Presidents who serve a second term eh? Gotcha! Now you had better retract your insinuations mate”

Well my reply as an expert tracker of invisible giants would be to reply something like this: Maybe. I think I had better look and see if there are other footprints out there in the  ... err ... bush.

So let’s see. A second president or parliament would not have such a long “bedding-in time delay” I mean, their connections are already made. Their hiring and firing of crony/friendly/supporting experts is already done during the previous term.  So what exactly are we looking for? They will “get into their groove” much faster the second time compared to the first, as it were. With less delay. So maybe there could be another cycle which could be double the length of the 4 year cycle, but a little shorter than that. And maybe it’s only there some of the time ... like when a second term administration is creating piles of poop as it does whatever it does while lurking in the bush. Am I getting my creatures mixed up do you think?

Let’s see. I found this 7 ¾ year cycle in gold. I wonder what causes that?

Moving on there seem to be many political forces out there which carry on activities which influence the price of gold. Congressional elections leave their footprints every two years it seems.

Who would have thought that would be there?

If one were to integrate the political components of the gold price movement what would one find? The answer is something like this:

I thought you might like to see that for laughs. It’s funny, yes? Aaah, but is it funny ha ha or funny peculiar? You be the judge. Who the joke gets played on matters a lot in such things.

Not that there is any proven connection between the fine upstanding bodies and personages mentioned above and the price of gold. I’m sure there are many thousands of intermediate steps between the two. Sort of like friends of cousins of contractors of contractors of contractors I expect. Now if only elephants wouldn’t create such a gigantic mess my job would be so much cleaner. I suppose one can dream.

argentus maximus

The author posts daily commentary on the gold and silver markets in the TFMR forum: The Setup For The Big Trade. More information about the author can be found here: RhythmNPrice

96 Comments

Mr. Fix's picture

Holy crap, I haven't gotten first in many months!

Time to read the article, something to do on a quiet Sunday.smiley

argentus maximus:

Excellent post, our Congress Critters and President (colossal elephants) are leaving massive footprints everywhere they go.

This is the kind of analysis I enjoy the most, by taking the personalities of the elephants into consideration, a lot of conclusions can be drawn. Of course, they will deny it all, but all too often, the evidence is irrefutable.

By the way, sometimes the footprints are harder to find than the monster piles of stinking poop they leave.  All the crap they spew can often  obscure their tracks.surprise

(Just trying to help)wink

murphy's picture

Proud to be a #2

Proud to be a #2 on AM's writings

Bollocks's picture

Thrud!

thrud?

SilverSurfers's picture

Fourth the Umpteenth Time

THIS HAS TO TOP THE LIST.

Politics and gridlock. House votes to postpone obamacare 1 year with continuing resolution to fund gov to Dec. LMAO, these clowns!! So, I guess it goes to conference? What a show, totalitarian proposers and Cave-Ins, meh. So, if it cant reach a compromise in conference, gov shut downs. We can only hope, I suppose. They have to fund to government, or the whole rotten house of totalitarian socialistic fascist cards comes tumbling down, or postpone obamacare. Question is, will the house controlled by the CAVE-IN party, CAVE IN again. Lines are drawn along party lines. Dems have the out, the cave-in party made us do it. So, the dem senate strips out obamacare defunding and funds the government, and the house parlays that into postpoine obamacare 1 year or shut down the government. Freakin tennis match, ok, ball is back in the senate court of gesters. What a circus!!! YOU CANT MAKE THIS STUFF UP.

We need miracles or shut down, what a choice by the clowns.

Howard Roark's picture

Good

Graphs! But here in euroland I guess that, with so many elephants, the graphs would be messy! ;)

Sorry to insist: euro Turdites, any ideas as to the co-op buy?

Salut,

HR 

Dr Jerome's picture

Shut it down

I wonder if the bums voted to continue the SNAP and EBT programs while they are shutdown. If my obamaphone shuts off then I'll be really mad. Interesting that they don't want to get the military upset at them...

Trafficant, Weiner, Blagojevich, Obama are not the outliers. They are the mainstream of American politics. The sooner our citizens recognize that 95% of these politicians are incompetent, hubristic, self-serving, greedy, corrupt, liars, the better off we will all be. Shut it down and let the people see it.

And here is a site that lists corrupt senators I knew nothing about.

Mr. Fix's picture

Some more interesting chart stuff :)

DEEPCASTER: PROFIT FROM A DANGEROUSLY FAT LEFT TAIL

Deepcaster tail risk“This looks to me like 2007 all over again, but even worse. All the previous imbalances are still there. “
“’Dangerously Fat Left Tail Risk’: the probability that an Investment will incur losses more than three Standard Deviations from the Mean Loss Probability.”
One Recent Most Important Development is Quite Ominous indeed. This Development has created an increasingly Dangerous Fat Left Tail.
Specifically, that Ominous Development indicates that the Probabilities of another Financial Crisis, with concomitant Negative Consequences, are Increasing. [Read more...]

pontiac's picture

Bullocks, Rob Kirby, and Eric deCarbonnel

    On the previous "Petition" thread, Bullocks posted an excellent interview of Rob Kirby by Lars Schall.  One amazing point is that deCarbonnel has disappeared!  His web site is still there at marketskeptics.com with all of his material.  I used to follow Eric as he was fearless in exposing the fraud of our government.

    He posted a 5 part video expose' of the ESF 0n june 3, 2011. (on which he had done extensive research)  His last post was Jan 22, 2012 and no one knows his whereabouts.  Is there someone out there with good connections? Could you contact the NSA and find out what happened to him?

Gold Dog's picture

Number nine....

...number nine...

Orange's picture

Sale

Off topic, but some of you might be interested.

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End price for all three shipped and taxed for about $58 after entering code.

I hate shopping and hate paying anything near full price.

Have a great day.

http://www.landsend.com/shop/mens/-/N-fz6

argentus maximus's picture

Good point Howard Roark

And it would be interesting to know for sure. I will do the same work on XAU/EUR in The setup for the big trade thread next week.

We will use the gold price to see if EU politico-elephants move as a herd in synchrony or as separate national groups.

achmachat's picture

Howard

Regarding Euro Turds:
I know from my dealer that almost all dealers in Europe get Silver Maples and Silver Philharmonics from the same wholesale dealer.
Furthermore, almost all of them order straight from wholesale when you make a larger order. (no real inventory)
This means that no matter who you order from, it all ends up as a big order from European wholesale.

I pledged to sell 1000 ounces of "virtual" silver from my metals account at the bank on that day and order 2 yellow Canadian Mint boxes full of Maples.

Bongo Jim's picture

Fat left tails, Hindenburg

Fat left tails, Hindenburg Omens, Black Swans...as Scotty would say: "We're screwed Captain."

SilverSurfers's picture

3 letter words

If it has an aka 3 letter government acronym, you just know its an evil organization of the evil empire.

http://www.marketskeptics.com/page/9

http://www.marketskeptics.com/page/10
http://www.marketskeptics.com/page/11

http://www.marketskeptics.com/page/12

RationalMind's picture

Debt Ceiling

The news has all been about the new fiscal budget and the standoff in Congress on the continuing resolution. I thought of starting a conversation in Turdville about the debt ceiling,and get ahead of this before MSM.

Here's a point of view. 

  1. We know that the debt ceiling will continue its climb upwards, as there has been no structural changes in anything to drive a budget surplus to pay down the debt principal.
  2. So, a debt default is currently inevitable.
  3. If #2 is a truism, then, it appears defaulting now while the debt is 17T, is much better for the average Joe/middle class, then defaulting when the debt is 2xT. Experiencing the pain now, is much better than later, before more of the middle class wealth is pillaged and saddled with IOUs for generations to come.

Thoughts, especially a different POV?

gold slut's picture

Debt ceiling

My view regarding this is that they will get (another) last moment agreement (yawn!) and the QE will clatter along. This will then become the norm as even the suggestion of tapering (as we have seen) will scare the horses and threaten to de-rail the only way they have of kicking the can down the road.  this will continue until something, which they will not be able to control, causes the system to start thrashing itself to pieces and we will nose-dive into another financial crisis.  Even as this is happening, they will continue with the QE because they won't know what else to do.

The one thing they will not do is bring about the crisis early to make things better for Joe Public, who could not be further from their thoughts.  The only thing they will want is to preserve the Status Quo until the last possible moment.  Damn the middle class and damn the consequences.

The only unknown now, is when.

But then, WTFDIK.

ata's picture

Chain of events ? - -

6a00d8341c7ae753ef01910490f4ce970c-pi

Mr. Fix's picture

In case you reallly need to know:

The Government Shutdown Looms: A Q&A On What Happens Next (And Who Stays At Home)

With a government's October 1 shut down - temporary of course - now seemingly inevitable, and more importantly with the peak debt ceiling negotiations due in just about a week after which point the Treasury will run out of money, many wonder what comes next. That this is happening just two short years after the dramatic August 2011 debt ceiling impasse, when the market tumbled 20% and likely slowed economic growth is still fresh in everyone's mind, is hardly helping matters. Add a potential political crisis in Greece and Italy, and suddenly a whole lot of unexpected variables have to be "priced in."

 
ata's picture

T.A. Secrets - -

         Buy only when the duck quits crapping    -     -                       black-swan-chart.png

BagOfGold's picture

Now...that's T.A...

I can definitely count on!...What can I say?...Crap happens!...Another stellar post Argentus!!!...

Bag Of Gold

Bollocks's picture

ATLAS SHRUGGED Movie "Who is John Galt?"

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A message from Producer John Aglialoro

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Howard Roark's picture

@achmachat

Ok! I guess its going to be BAU. I guess I´ll buy alone at 31st this October. As to where... I guess I´ll make an order from the links You´ve given me once!  ;)

Trouble is choosing between some marvellous silver bars from US of A  - Scottsdale - and the coins. Any insight?

As to the Lusitania reality... well there are the municipal elections results tonight... the madness is high, really really high!

As to the a second bail-out to the country... everybody is talking about it... so: here we go again!

To where? Any doubts?

Keep stacking.

Salut,

HR

(edit) - the socialists (opposition) are winning the municipal elections... imagine what that´s going to the austerity efforts... the political struggle is going to be fierce. I guess more money will do the job. Other people´s money, by the way!!! Damn! 

Howard Roark's picture

@argentus maximus

I´ll be waiting on those relations between euro-elephants and markets! ;)

But I guess the reality in Euroland is much more floating and dynamic. Don´t You agree? The political entity is more obscure or something, I guess.

Keep the good work.

Salut,

HR

Howard Roark's picture

@Bollocks

The link You gave on the "Organized Crime/Bank at its finest Show" is just mind-blowing! If one ads the other video titled "We just kill the Dollar"... then the perspective widens. 

I get something on my stomach, because the EU commission wants a bigger stabilization fund... a step in the direction pictured on both videos. WTF! It´s madness!

One does not be a conspiracy lover to see what is in the horizon! Damn!

Thanks for the links people.

Keep strong,

HR

argentus maximus's picture

The biggest problem with the

The biggest problem with the XAU-EUR is lack of a long data history to use statistical verification on. I'll have to find a way that does not involve substuting the DM price history as that is singe EU country specific. I'm not stuck and have a couple of ideas about it.

Those multiple highly individualistic egotistical elephants comprising the EU herd? We'll see what I find.

Howard Roark's picture

@the biggest - am

And one of them is from Lusitania!!!

Yuuuuuppeeeee!!! (sarc!!!)

It´s the president of the commission, above all people... I mean above all elephants!

;)

HR

Bollocks's picture

Howard Roark

Yes, quite an eye-opener eh?

Them dots are connecting rather rapidly nowadays wink.

Bollocks's picture

multiple highly individualistic egotistical elephants

Can't help with the "multiple" bit.

Or "egotistical".

But here's one.

Best I could do argentus. 

Rubbish, eh?

argentus maximus's picture

What would WB Yeates,or Dylan

wink

What would WB Yeates,or Dylan Thomas or Seamus Heaney have written about them all? Russell Brand seems to be the best around at the moment, (if I fail to mention Beppe Grillo who has now entered politics to oppose establishment parties).

We don't need petitions.

We need a couple of capable scathing comedians telling it as it is in comedy - a biting political satire - to the ordinary people not yet informed. Such a number of communicators could move mountains.

Politicians hate comedians and always have hated them because they strip away the veneer of respectability those confidence trickster wolves need to wear to gain advantage over the trusting masses. Comedians can tell the truth when other media can't or won't. Comedians cross political boundaries and the old and young, the left and right, the rich and poor listen.

For me, I now just look at what is happening and trade it.

Urban Roman's picture

Crapping Ducks

@atarangi, that is terrible news. Several decades ago, when I was the 'head' of a nuclear family in north Texas, we got some ducks and geese one Easter. Unlike most people, we didn't ditch them 2 weeks after the holiday... no, we kept them forever. 

They never quit crapping. 

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