TGIF! Week in Review

Good morning Turdville and TGIF!    Time for one of those unconventional market updates, Lantern style! 

Gold and Silver

We celebrated two anniversaries this week.  The 12 year anniversary of 9/11 and the two year anniversary of when gold got smacked off its all time highs at $1900.   Currently, Gold is not living up to it's seasonal price expectations. Gold was smacked once again, dropping to five week low on news that the Patriots beat the Jets 13-10.  And Silver had it's biggest weekly drop since April on news that Hurricane Humberto was weakening over the Atlantic.  Oh, you thought I was going to say something like Syria or the market anticipating an announcement of slow stimulus next week coming from the Fed?   Well, yeah... right. 

The man who can get inside the head of investors and banksters and tell you why something went up or something went down and be 100% accurate is lying to you.   Not that there isn't any relationship, only that it is as likely that it is the wind and rain.  BTW, the weather experts predicted a terrible Hurricane season.  I have my fingers crossed that they continue to be wrong as we watch all these weather systems off the coast of west Africa continue to fizzle out. 

Your favorite analyst is probably now telling you something like gold and silver fell below it's key supports and could go lower to $1300 or even $1250 UNLESS it doesn't.  Watch and wait for news on Syria, QE and debt ceiling.  Well, yeah! 

I'm really not making fun of your favorite technical analyst or whatever system they are using because some of them are pretty darn good at their jobs.  As a matter of fact, I have defended their work twice in the last week based on historical precedent.   It's just a fact of life that human's ability to predict the short term future is a precarious one unless you are a fly on the wall over in Blythe Masters office.  And boy, I'd like to give that a try.

While the charts might be damaged, the reasons to own the metals are doing just fine.  Demand has Never been better!  I'm going to skip all the World Council numbers and the outrageous consumer demand in India and China because you have heard it before.   If you still need convincing that it's a good time to own metals at this juncture in history, I'll have my secretary fax you the data sheet on the unprecedented debt, the on again/off again insolvency of our financial institutions, and the eternal state of war.  Pin pricks my ass!  

The fact is gold performed well coming off it's June lows and silver had it's best weekly rise in 5 years.  Not too shabby but as I've said so many times the metals remain extremely volatile.  Volatility remains the key word that all metal bugs need to learn to live with until you are told otherwise.  For that matter, the world is in a volatile state with Syria still on the agenda, taper talk and once again congress is having another debate about raising the debt ceiling.  Pluh-leeeze.  Somebody stop this world and throw congress off this spinning planet. 

Here is the scorecard for debt ceiling increases since the 1940's.  Need I say more?

If you read Turd's last post or watched the video of Max Keiser interviewing the Turd, you also know that JP Morgan is looooong gold.  As a matter of fact, they are now holding the longest position in any regulated futures market in history!  25% of the entire COMEX gold futures! Schwiiing!!! 

INFLATION

As I've been saying and Argentus Maximus has been pointing out in his well written macro pieces, we simply haven't seen the type of inflation that gold bugs really enjoy.   Sort of a paradoxical quandary all of you got yourself into as being being a gold bug.  The thing you despise, inflation, is the thing you most need for your investment to do well.  Kind of like rooting for the home team and the underdog at the same time. 

With the Fed announcement coming up in a week, here is what I expect.  CHANGE! If QE to infinity refers only to a swap, than I'm not on board.  If it means, doing whatever is necessary, count me in.  Of course, there is the remote possibility that they could let the economy crumble.   I recommend you listen to Art Cashin's latest interview on KWN.  He is talking the same playbook I am in regards to what could happen with QE.   The fed could decide to get serious and drop some real cash into the economy or stimulate bank lending to ensure those root vegetables at the supermarket become a luxury item.  I do the grocery shopping in my house and I can tell you that fruits and vegetables are not part of the economy experiencing stagflation. 

Then there is the other possibility I've mentioned which we will call "structural changes"   A nice way of saying stealing your money.   My friend DPH, pointed out recently that the FDIC has adopted new regulations.  If you are a foreign depositor in an overseas branch of a US bank, you ain't getting paid.  I'm no actuary but it seems to me when your insurance denies you coverage, you are considered a risk. 

Foreign Deposits In US Banks Not Insured

Putin Writes Op-ED to NYT

Now for some fun!!! On Thursday, Putin brought his case against US intervention in Syria directly to the American people by submitting an Op Ed Pieceto the New York Times.  

Putin Talks to the Americans

Let me tell you, this was some 1st class entertainment.  The MSM and the folks on Capital Hill are ripping it apart.   Putin really stoked the fires and it's probably exactly what he was trying to do.  The United Nations going the way of the League of Nations, The US supporting armed terrorists, and American "exceptionalism" as stated by the Prez in his Syrian speech.

 
Putin writes: "Millions around the world increasingly see America not as a model of democracy but as relying solely on brute force, cobbling coalitions together under the slogan “you’re either with us or against us.”

I think Putin was on the mark with the American exceptionalism however, I'd call it Divine Rights of Kings.   The president believes he has been consecrated as a God and now it is our responsibility to stop the scourge of tyranny around the world.   Who died and made him king?  More on divine right of kings and deification  in my next article.

A Leisure Moment

Finally, as promised I'd keep you abreast of the latest breaking news for the fall foliage season.  I am a man of my word.  In case you didn't know, humidity is NOT the recipe for brilliant leaves so unless it gets cool and sunny quick, we're going to pass the color phase and go right to brown.   But right now it's too early to tell.  Right now Maine is showing some promise. 

This picture in from Durham, Maine

And here are the reports for NEast, SEast and Midwest.  Our non US Turds are going to have to be the beat reporters for their own countries

Northeast foliage report

Midwest

Southeast

Rock on! (Maravich that's your cue)

 

174 Comments

Hammer's picture

yup

yup. Been a couple of years since I got a first so :)

Welcome to the weekend folks :)

As always GL, lighting the fires with Fall on the way in The North.

Gold Dog's picture

Good morning!

Gold seems a little squishy.

It was a good trade while it lasted.

Thanks GL.

Your friend,

Dog

achmachat's picture

spambot

wow... the hai spambot got second place!

Hammer's picture

Spain’s public debt already

Spain’s public debt already exceeds target for full year

Level of indebtedness rose to 92 percent of GDP in first half

http://elpais.com/elpais/2013/09/13/inenglish/1379077566_847944.html?

Fat Willie's picture

Larry Summers

So they apparently did the trial balloon on Summers as fed chair, and the markets started puking pretty fast.  Hard to believe that there isn't a connection to the smash yesterday.   That is a pretty big coincidence. For reminder, google Larry summers and Gibsons paradox.   A Summers appointment could mean even more blatant gold smashing.   

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-13/white-house-shoots-down-nikkeis-summers-trial-balloon

sierra skier's picture

What a Week

What a week, and the metals have been killed again.

We may as well predict the market moves by football scores and hurricanes because the old standby relationships between markets are long gone. There is no longer any rhyme or reason to market moves except for the whims of those in charge.

The fall colors here have yet to start their change. When they do go it is gorgeous though.

Gold Dog's picture

Skier

There are those that have predicted that the closer we get to the end the more volatile the metals will become.

BTFD may be more applicable for those that are still under "insured".

That said- Lois Lerner should be compelled to testify.

"WHAT DOES IT MATTER!"- Cankles 2013

YF,

D

EDIT- From Tyler- Gold does best Greece does worst. Who wudda thought?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-13/best-and-worst-performing-assets-lehman-are

TreeTop Dweller's picture

Ready for some upward momentum?

Excellent work GL!   Thanks again.

Just A Regular Guy's picture

About them manipulators....

Ok so it has been pretty brutal for people long phys, but as some point out - has your stack grown or decreased? Oh it's the same, so why worry? For me I am concerned about what is going to happen in the last quarter of this year. It seems, at face value, that it is going to be bad, worse, or fubar.
If the monkeys are going to monkey hammer gold why worry? I have said more times that I can count that after the intermediate bottom in June (I think the 25 or 26th) I fired half my powder, with another half in waiting. Now I feel vindicated as I'm guessing we're going to see gold retrace below $1100, somewhere between the 50% and 61.8% retracement from the 1920ish high. My crappy back of envelope calculations are between say $903 - 1080.

Does anyone know (as I am not able to check at the moment) when the smash-down in April happened, was it initiated on a Friday (as my memory tells me) and continued through to the following week? If so, well we have FOMC next week, and pending the technicals (Turd will help us with that) I am guessing we'll see much weakness on Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday.

Anyway boys and girls, good luck out there, as much as I HATE being a bear here I don't think being a bull is great either. If it does drop to anywhere near $1100 i'm a getting uber-bullish. From here I can only assume we resume the bull-market. Either way, we'll find out very shortly if the gold bull is dead or not. If it dies, which would seem soooooooooo unbelievably illogical then ..... /cries

Peace and heartheartheart

John Galt's picture

Divine Right of Kings

That is a very poignant comment to make, GL, given some of the stuff I was digging through last night.

To summarize: the Constitution "of" the United States of America was created by the founding fathers in 1776 for the American people. Following the American Civil War a new entity was created in 1871 by bankers out of Europe called the United States corporation, centered in the autonomous state of the District of Columbia. This new entity redrafted a new Constitution "for" the United States of America, which is virtually identical  to the original document but with a few key changes.

During inauguration the POTUS swears the oath of loyalty to this corporation, not to the American people. Members of the military also swear an oath of loyalty to the corporation. All of us simply assume that the US and the USA are one and the same, but from a legal perspective they are not.

And because this is a PMs discussion board I will add that according to the US Mint website the gold at Ft. Knox is owned by the bank owned corporation of the United States. This means that the gold stored there (whatever it may or may not be) is actually owned by the bank owners of the corporation of the United States, and not by the people of the United States of America.

What does this have to do with the Divine Right of Kings?

I stayed up until the wee hours last night looking through articles and videos, and came across one by Jordan Maxwell discussing this very thing. He suggests to Google the following words:

USA vs US

Maxwell talks a lot without cutting to the chase (although thankfully not as bad as Lindsay Williams) and at one point he went on an extreme tangent to suggest that the ultimate control of the corporation of the United States comes from the Vatican, and that every time you see the POTUS kissing the ring of the Pope it shows symbolic deference to the earthly representative of the supreme Deity represented by this cabal.

In this sense the POTUS may be president of a corporation that is owned by a small group group of administrators in a far away land, but he receives this position by the virtue of an extension of the Divine Right of Kings.

(All things considered I'm not sure if my head is spinning this morning from lack of physical sleep or from waking up, or both)

My coffee pot is on and I will see if I can dig up that video.

Thanks again to all posters and those who comment here at TFMR. Collectively your ideas are sprinkled with sometimes unexpected clues that help me piece together a much better picture of the great puzzle that lies before us. 

(Edited to add video link)

Bollocks's picture

"gold prices could fall below $1,000" ?

The HAI bot link refers to this Bloomberg article:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-13/goldman-sees-risk-of-gold-below-1-000-as-u-s-economy-gains-1-.html

Goldman Sachs sees the possibility that gold prices could fall below $1,000. The firm's target price for 2014 is $1,050.

Gold is poised to extend declines as the U.S. Federal Reserve withdraws stimulus and economic data improve, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which says that there’s a risk that bullion may drop below $1,000 an ounce. Futures retreated in New York.

While debt-ceiling discussions in the U.S. and the Syrian crisis may support bullion in the near term, gold will resume its decline into next year, Jeffrey Currie, head of commodities research, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television today. The bank’s target for 2014 is $1,050, and the commodity may overshoot to the downside, Currie said in Singapore. Gold futures haven’t traded below $1,000 since October 2009.

--

“While we agree with the mid-cycle price somewhere around $1,200, we believe that at least near term it can overshoot to the downside, which is why we have $1,050” as a target, Currie said. “It clearly could trade below $1,000.”

------------

You know what, I believe Goldman will make it happen.

¤'s picture

Time will tell

Nice post GL yes  

I enjoy reading posts that summarize recent events when you also throw in your unique viewpoint or analysis....even on hurricanes. I pay attention to that stuff also. I'm a weatherbug to.

Regarding the FDIC and a couple other views I shared recently with you and another friend on here who gently nudged me to post those views for public consumption.

The conversation was "events coming down the pipeline that would manifest in 2013."

My comment was...

" I agree about 2013. Been saying it since Nov/Dec 2011.

My guess is that in hindsight now it's easy to see a confluence of events and how they've evolved while still being unsolved and it seems like we're snowballing down a hill that's approaching.

My guess has been for awhile that after Merkel is reelected is when the severity of some things is allowed to collapse or restructure in the EU just like it happened to the US banks and the Lehman moment.

If the US tapers (or even if they don't) and they then run afoul of the debt ceiling issue and public market perception, the ripples from US monetary policy could be enough to trigger or allow some EU pain to evolve. My guess has more or less been Nov/Dec 2013 but I can see how they've continually stretched the timeline out.

My guess is that they can't cover for Greece much longer and they'll take some drastic measure once the German election can't be complicated by it. I can almost see Merkel getting stern about it and relishing in the power of it all as Germany seems to be calling the ECB shots. She realizes that the EU has two separate levels of productivity and indebtedness that are incompatible of each other.

A EU banking crisis and consolidation could provide the necessary cover to exact great and necessary change over there. No matter if it happens in 2013 or not, I agree with you both...we're on the cusp of something that's not feeling real positive.

Two things have caught my eye lately. 

1.  The FDIC ruling of no longer guaranteeing deposits in US banks abroad by US depositors in those US owned banks abroad. That's a big deal and drastic (and fairly quiet) new ruling. I wonder why they changed it now?

2. I've posted before about watching what the smart money does. Specifically Buffet, he gets in early on sweetheart distress investments and exits smartly once his warrants have been exercised.

Case in point....Bank of America. He's exited his massive position recently and made $5 BILLION by doing so. Smart guy.

I also noticed that BOA is being removed from the Dow index due to under valuation.

Conclusion....when Merkel no longer has to worry about public opinion post election and Buffet has exited a huge bank position at the Dow all time high and then one of the Dow components gets removed afterwards is like a blinking warning signal maybe.

Time will tell."

Patrancus's picture

News worthy week in review

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/11/us/colorado-lawmaker-concedes-defeat-in-recall-over-gun-law.html?hp&_r=2&

I totally recall if you mess with the peoples constitutional gun rights, the people are going to bury you in your own bs.

flyinkel's picture

DPH, guess on FDIC

They change the ruling to bring the money back home to supposed "security" trying to cut off a possible route of flight to safety for individuals.  With no insurance Joe Average will want his money parked here with the NOTSO well funded FDIC insurance.  But a smarter Joe Average would probably go to another well capitalized bank in a country with a projected stronger currency (if you assume the  S will HTF) and move his money there (Singapore dollar? Norwegian Kroner?  Not a currency buff, would have to research more).

Urban Roman's picture

Leaf report

Here in south Texas, the leaves went to brown in, let's see ... 2009 I think. 

Now we have a lot of standing dead trees in greenbelt areas and countryside. The trees that made it through the worst of the drought are showing a little green by now. 

realitybiter's picture

Summers

When Obama announced the appointment of Summers to head his economic council in late November, 2008, the HUI index rose 34% in the two days (day before for the insiders and the day of announcement).  The data suggests that Summers appointment is gold positive.  Haven't heard much from BS Bernanke much these days.  Didn't go to J Hole....I imagine Summers is probably the shadow banker already...given that, and knowing that Gibsons Paradox is his way of thinking....I imagine they have pulled all the stops to get the price down as much as they can....before they can't.

wtfdik

ag1969's picture

TGIF

And here is Sgt. Joe Friday interviewing Barack Owe-Bomb-ya

monkry's picture

Good write up

Good write up, however IMHO all world leaders are scum, some are more overt than others.

Taught my children to not believe anything they see/read in media, as it's always at best half-truths spun by a PR machine, and at worst outright lies. Also to not trust the gov't, any gov't.

I don't know how they'll fare in school from now on......

Anyone witness strange behavior @ pmbull/gold page? The gold page feed is not responding for me this a.m., the silver page is fine.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Just want to jump in here...

MODERATOR

As I type, our pal Andrew is recording some very important information with Eric King.

You know how it works...Eric will frustratingly pick it apart and release it in stages. Regardless, please be sure to check KWN later today and over the weekend. You're going to want to hear what Andy has to say.

AlienEyes's picture

Hang 'em High !!!

Excerpt from GL : “The United Nations going the way of the League of Nations, The US supporting armed terrorists, and American "exceptionalism" as stated by the Prez in his Syrian speech.”

The United Nations going the way of the League of Nations.
It couldn’t happen soon enough. We pay the lions share for an organization that has morphed into a “We hate the USA” club decades ago. Some members are so small that we have never even heard of them. A huge number of members think we are somehow responsible for their welfare checks. If we had more sense than a headless chicken, we would know that buying friends only gets us more enemies. Just as it is not our job being the world’s policemen, we are not the world’s welfare agency, either. If some poor fellow has thirteen kids, no job and an abused wife and we feed them, we have just doomed those kids to a future with no job, no food, no natural resources, no education and basically, no brains. Let’s face it, guilt trips are the most prevalent form of manipulation and are aimed at the weak minded. The circumstances that some foreign asshat is in were well known before he decided to have thirteen kids. There is no cure for stupidity.

The US supporting armed terrorists....
Well, like I just said, there is no cure for stupid. We funded Osama ben Capped and even gave the lunatic stinger missiles. Compliments of the CIA. That was world class dumb. Then, to prove our overt stupidity was not just a fluke, we made Hildabeast Clinton security of state. WTF? That wasn’t just stupid. It was outright insane.

American "exceptionalism"....
Want to know the real meaning of American "exceptionalism"? It means Obama and congress are excepted but the rest of us, aren’t. An example is ObamaCare. Obama and his family are excepted and so is congress. Need another? Social Security. Workers are forced to belong but congress and O’bummer are not. Still don’t understand? Try insider trading. It is perfectly legal for members of congress to trade on inside information. If we do it, it’s “Hi-ho, hi-ho. It’s off to jail you go!” Ask Martha Stewart or Nancy Pelosi. 

achmachat's picture

our friend Andrew

Thank you for the heads up, Turd.
Very much appreciated.

LMR's picture

JPMorgan BUYING GOLD?! $60,000/oz Gold? - Bill Murphy

Published on Sep 12, 2013

Finance and Liberty interview with Elijah Johnson

While the Federal Reserve continues flooding the financial system with newly printed dollars and discussion of war between the U.S. and Syria continues, the only investments that have never gone to zero and have proven throughout history to preserve wealth through times of economic and political turmoil ironically continue to fall! In this exclusive interview, the Gold Antitrust Action Committee's chairman, Bill Murphy, explains why the prices of precious metals are falling and questions if JPMorgan Chase & Co. has really been investing in gold amid the most devastating and blatant gold price suppression scheme he has ever witnessed.

The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee: http://GATA.org
Bill Murphy's LeMetropoleCafe: http://LeMetropoleCafe.com

Bongo Jim's picture

Corporation ?

The USA corporation...does this mean that the debt/deficit is owed by the corporation and not the citizens or what?

¤'s picture

Most of us realized this over 2 years ago...

TEPCO Official Admits Fukushima "Out Of Control"

A month ago, when we quoted an independent expert that "TEPCO has lost control of Fukushima" many took offense, despite all signs to the contrary. Perhaps the skeptics will reevaluate their position following today's news reported by AFP, which cited Kazuhiko Yamashita, who holds the executive-level title of "fellow" at Tokyo Electric Power, who finally admitted what those not mired in prejudice about the state of nuclear energy refuse to accept, that the nuclear plant was "not under control." This promptly led to the government, which last weekend learned it would host the 2020 Olympics and promised that Fukushima would not be a concern by then, to scramble and "reassure people on Friday that they have a lid on Fukushima." Unfortunately, the lies, like the radiation in the plant, are now finally seeping through and more are becoming fully aware of just how serious the catastrophe truly is, and drove yet another steak through the heart of the official narrative by Prime Minister Abe as they "flatly contradict" his assurances.

Zerohedge.com

Magpie's picture

You beat me to it, DPH!

I can't believe it's taken this long.  Chernobyl was under control in six months.  All the Japanese government and TEPCO have do for the past 2 1/2 years is lie.  Maybe now that the truth is out they'll actually accept some of the international assistance that's been offered in the past.  One article I read said that the site will have to be monitored/controlled for the next 1000 years. 

ag1969's picture

Ron Paul's Pod Cast Nation #29 ~ Not So Fast Obama

Turd Ferguson's picture

Bill makes EXCELLENT points

MODERATOR

And it's quite possible that the Comex long position of JPM is offset by offshore, OTC short positions.

Below are two segments of an email exchange I had with Chris Powell earlier this week:

CP: Two questions about the CFTC report and JPM.

1) How do we know that JPM, while seemingly long at the Comex,
isn't equivalently short someplace else that doesn't report?

2) If, as I've always maintained, JPM is the government and the
government is JPM, how do we know that the long position that
JPM has acquired on the Comex isn't for renewed selling for
price suppression?

Me: imho...

1) We don't. They very well could be. However, this "USBank" long gold thing is such an anomaly that it likely isn't offsetting anything. It's a position that is expected to be closed at a profit or used to take delivery in December. Recall the expansive thing I wrote two weeks ago about 2013 delivery patterns.

2) It could be used for that and they already dumped some of it during the August rally. But the key for me is that the position...as of last Tuesday!...is precisely what it was at The Bottom back in early July.

I think they have a devious plot in mind. Maybe just to make money. Maybe to force delivery from the non-U.S. banks in order to get back the same gold that they (JPM) had to deliver earlier this year (99 mts). Maybe to crash the CME/Comex and then ride in as a white knight and buy it for pennies on the dollar, just like they did Bear back in 2008.

Turd Ferguson's picture

1000 years?!?

MODERATOR

As Keynes himself said...In the long run, we're all dead.

In this case...Even in the short run, we may all be dead.

Orange's picture

Bill

We must be at a low, Bill Murphy sounds really frustrated.

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