Big Thinkers: Orlov's Book and Current Events - Part 1

The Sky is Falling!  Or is it?
 
Dmitry Orlov’s 2013 book “The Five Stages of Collapse – Survivors’ Toolkit” is required reading.  I do not say that lightly.  It is a must read; do not delay.  It is here:
 
 
and there are reviews posted for those inclined.  I am not doing a book review.  I am trying to pin down a realistic time-line, and the markers of same, in order that we all can prepare accordingly.  Nothing I have read to date is as well analyzed, or presented, so for that, I am in awe.  But, naturally, I have my own thoughts as to the reality that all five stages of collapse actually occur.  So, this is Part I.  Part II will be next Wednesday, as it all should make more sense as the Syrian situation unfolds.
 
From the introduction of the book through the afterward, the book is mesmerizing both in its insightful analysis, and its use of examples.  It is full of humor, too.  While I quarrel with the constant references to global warming–I am not a believer in that theory at all–the book is simply astonishing for its clear, yet compelling, observations.  Oh, did I mention that Mr. Orlov was born in Russia, having moved to the United States as a teenager?  Or that Mr. Orlov is an engineer with skills in many fields including high energy physics research, e-commerce and Internet security?  Or that Mr. Orlov traveled back and forth to Russia repeatedly to observe the Soviet collapse during the late 80s and mid 90s?
 
All of these facts cement his credentials for me, and makes this book such a compelling read.  I find it extremely important that we examine Mr. Orlov’s prism through which he views the world, because he alone seems to have the unique insight to have synthesized a world view based on personal experience as well as his education and obvious intellect.  One can quarrel with his conclusions, but they are based on solid facts and experiences completely foreign to me that is for sure.  Hence, I absorbed the book in rapt fascination, and I now look at the world events with a nod to the possibilities that Orlov’s predictions are accurate.
 
Mr. Orlov was born in Russia during the Cold War era.  It is fascinating to think that he then left Russia and moved to the United States, where he then got to play video games, listen to Western pop-culture music and watch Hollywood movies.  Certainly he had a taste of hard living in Russia, compared to the easy life in the United States.  This had to have played a huge influence upon young Orlov.
 
Then, as the communist experiment began its death spasms, Mr. Orlov’s family and friends and he himself were there to witness them all to include the collapse.  Personally, I remember being in an airport in Alabama at the time watching CNN showing images of the Soviet Union collapse on the video monitor.  It was unbelievable, shocking–I was a former soldier, inculcated to hate the evil empire, they were the enemy dammit!; yet, my plane still showed up and left on time and I got to my destination.  No one seemed to mind, or notice, and life just went on.
 
So, it’s not like the collapse of the fiat system in general and perhaps the USA in particular will be any life altering universe changing occurrence, although it will probably feel like that to many who are directly, initially affected.  No, what Mr. Orlov writes about is a steady progression of a decaying, deteriorating, behemoth of a system, which announces its deterioration in measurable, meaningful ways.  It is no mystery, nor should it be.
 
Anything which by definition that is unsustainable will come to an end.  There is no sane person presently arguing that the current fiat system is sustainable.  So, the fiat system will end, and the question then becomes what will it look like when it does start to end?  Can the eventual collapse be stopped mid stream, like a magic stick save?  How will we know the collapse is upon us?  If the collapse is gradual, then how long will it take?   What should we expect, at any given point in time, then, along the collapse continuum?
 
Mr. Orlov provides all the tools to reach conclusions and answers for all of these questions in detail and with examples from history.  He adroitly describes an orderly process marked by five discrete stages of collapse, not all of which necessarily must occur, but which stages will occur in progressive fashion should efforts not be made to stave off the final, ruinous, back to the Stone Age collapse.
 
Those five stages are, in order, (1) Financial Collapse; (2) Commercial Collapse; (3) Political Collapse; (4) Social Collapse, and finally, (5) Cultural Collapse.
 
Without taking too much time to restate history, we all pretty much know that the financial collapse is occurring as we speak, with the first hint and outward manifestation of financial collapse occurring in 2008 and continuing ever since.  Here is what Orlov says about Stage 1, the Financial Collapse: “Faith in business as usual is lost. The future is no longer assumed to resemble the past in any way that allows risk to be assessed and financial assets to be guaranteed. Financial institutions become insolvent; savings are wiped out and access to capital is lost.” [p.14].
 
At this point, I firmly believe that the financial collapse is ongoing just as described, and accelerating.  Understand that the process of the ongoing deterioration of the system is a gradual marginal process, and that there is no definitive point in time when there is at one moment a blissful, peaceful feeling that everything is perfectly fine, and then at the next moment there is sudden chaos and anarchy with rioting in the streets and images of roving bands of thugs streaming across our televisions.  Instead, the financial collapse will continue its progress marginally, inexorably, step-by-step until such time as there is a commercial collapse.  This is a completely different viewpoint I had when I first came to tfmr.  I initially felt that collapse was IMMINENT!!  Grab the weapons, food, water and gold/silver, time to bug out!  
 
Well, I was dead wrong.  Stupidly so.  But how could I have been so misguided?  Was it gullibility?  Madison Avenue marketing?  Human nature normalcy bias?  
 
Whatever.  Only now, I see things in a different, more analytical light, thanks to Mr. Orlov’s writings.  Make no mistake, though.  It is crystal clear that the Financial Collapse is ongoing, right now, leading soon enough I believe, though gradually to Stage 2, Commercial Collapse.
 
Understand that Santa told everyone to get out of the financial system.  Cyprus banks initiated the bail-in.  The ground work has been laid out. It is all legal and all the details worked out.  Plenty has been written about the pending stealing of funds on deposit at banks, retirement accounts, name it.  Look at what is happening in Argentina.  If those Argentinian bond holders are stiffed, then that supposedly valuable New York paper is not so valuable now, is it?  All of this is coming to pass as predicted, and the signs are obvious to anyone who wants to look.
 
The fiat system is broken.  Risk assessment is now based on predicting the words of the Fed bankster in charge, then front run on huge computers to shear the sheep of fractions of pennies.  The worlds’ unregulated derivatives dwarf the world GDP.  A small hiccup will destroy the entire scheme, overnight.  We are there.
 
This leads us to Stage 2, the Commercial Collapse.  Orlov says this: “Faith that the market shall provide is lost. Money is devalued and or becomes scarce, commodities are hoarded, import and retail chains break down in widespread shortages of survival necessities become the norm.” [p.14].
 
It sure does not look like this Stage yet to me, but it sure seems damn close, too.  But, by looking closely, the Syrian situation is telegraphing the proximity of when this Stage will occur.  Many, many commentators have weighed in about Syria, and how the whole military situation, the bombing, the invasion, the troops really point in one direction;
 
 
 
 
 
The US President, a laughing stock, says at one moment that Syria crossed a red line, but now tries to wiggle out from under his own words, like a hack criminal defense attorney arguing for leniency for his recidivist client.  The Syrian distraction is just that, a ruse.  The real reason, they say, is resources, namely, gas pipelines to feed the industrialized world in general, and to perpetuate the governing structures of some middle east countries.  So does this not seem to point towards the imminent arrival of Stage 2?  Soon enough we will know.
 
Believe what you want to believe, but the next Stage, Commercial Collapse, knowing it is upon us, preparing do deal with it and live through it, is damn important to survival of us regular folks that is for sure.  It is also after this Stage that I believe that a concerted effort to become politically active and strive for limited government will have the biggest effects.
 
So, for now, I leave you with this Part I and invite comments, criticisms, and the like.  Try to focus on Orlov’s definitions of the first two Stages.
 
Next week I will dig into Stages 3-5, and evaluate details as well as strategies for rising up and making a difference for Stage 3.  I would not be doing all this analysis if I did not believe that there is a possibility for real reform during Stage 3.  So, I am not totally a doomsday believer I once was, but things sure look grim, so don’t let up on the preparation effort that is for sure.
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353 Comments

Dyna mo hum's picture

I

Need a lawyer.

AlienEyes's picture

Me 2

So do I

sierra skier's picture

This post sounds interesting

But I'll have to check it out in the AM.

THURD

Mr. Fix's picture

4th

smiley

ReachWest's picture

An Exponential Acceleration

Thanks for this Cal Lawyer. I will have to grab a copy of Orlov's book. Sounds like a good (scary, yet insightful) read.

We are most assuredly in the Financial Collapse Stage still. It seems to be collapsing like a slow motion train wreck - but - I wonder if the subsequent stages do not accelerate in an exponential fashion. That would be my guess (without reading the book). I would expect that Commercial collapse would occur rapidly after the Financial collapse and that Political collapse would be more rapid again.

As I watch the news and the pseudo news - it seems to me that we are seeing elements of each of the collapse stages outlined in this article occurring daily. (Witness the Miley Cyrus preoccupation of the past couple of weeks while most folks ignore the loss of liberty and the rampant corruption). So .. perhaps stage 1 is really a collapse of all the stages simultaneously, with the financial system being the first element to give way completely.

I still believe that most people are 'good' - the vast unwashed masses so-to-speak. But - deprive them (us) of food and all bets are off.  [I think I'll head out in the AM to restock more supplies.]

bullion only's picture

Don't remember who said this

Don't remember who said this but it goes something like this, "Things take longer than you expect to happen but when they happen they happen faster than anyone thought."

RT

Magpie's picture

Lucky 7

Ain't technology grand?  Orlov's book just arrived on my Kindle.

bullion only's picture

A bacteria, and all

A bacteria, and all subsequent bacteria, in a closed test tube system doubles every minute and in 24 hours the enclosed system will be completely full. The initial bacteria is place in the tube at midnight.

Q. What time is it when the test tube is half full?

A. One minute before midnight. At midnight the system doubles and becomes full and at one minute after midnight the system doubles to twice the test tube size resulting in a massive kill off. Even procuring three completely empty extra test tubes only buys two extra minutes of time where as the first test tube took 23 hours and 59 minutes to half fill the first one. 

Things look fine. There seems to be plenty of room left. Capital continues to flow. Business continues to run. Ladies and gentlemen; I believe we are at 11:59 pm. Hence, things seem to take longer than you expect yet happen faster than you could ever imagine.

RT

AgNovice's picture

Nein

Ninth Amendment

"The enumeration in the Constitution, of certain rights, shall not be construed to deny or disparage others retained by the people."

I like this amendment. I think it should be invoked more.

Katie Rose's picture

THE HARBINGER by Jonathan Cahn

CA Lawyer,

I have wanted to introduce this book to my friends here, yet didn't know when or where to do it. This seems like the perfect place.

Like many here I've been fascinated with timing -- timing of when the "collapse" will occur and timing of when WWIII may start. I wish for neither.

I was raised by two parents who were children during the Great Depression and whose families fought in WWII. My Dad hated the war, he hated being in the military, and he hated everything about it. My Mother did, too. Between their two large farm families there were 15 young men who served in WWII. Two of them did not come home. My Mom had 5 brothers who served, my Dad and 6 of his brothers served.

My Mom is 88 and she cries every time she watches TV. She is glued to the cable news channels. She has lived through this before. But this time there is a difference. The moral fabric of the country is unrecognizable from when she was a young woman. She knows what is on the horizon, and she is too old to do anything about it. And it terrifies her to be so old and so helpless.

Which brings me to a book I recently read that shocked me to my core. A friend literally walked in the door and placed the book in my hand. She said I needed to read it. What she didn't know was that I have been spending my time researching the Blood Red Moons that will be occurring in 2014 and 2015. They will occur on the Jewish Holidays Passover and the Feast of Tabernacles in both 2014 and  2015.

Two solar eclipses will occur on Nisan 1 (Jewish New Year) 2015 and Feast of Trumpets, Sept 13, 2015.

The book my friend placed in my hand is The Harbinger by Jonathan Cahn. It has sold over a million copies. I do not know where I have been to have missed this book.

Here's the bottom-line. Your book is about the secular collapse of the former Soviet Union and the similarities to what we are seeing happening in the USA. The Harbinger is about what has happened since 9/11 in the USA, and how identical it is to the fall of Israel in Isaiah 9:10. It is well researched and mind blowing.

We have two books. One secular, one spiritual. They dovetail together perfectly. I believe we need the information from both to chart our course.

If The Harbinger is correct, we have until September 2015. Then it truly gets ugly in the USA.

For those who may want to read it, it is here. A DVD was produced by World Net Daily. It does not have the depth that the book has.

I personally can not think of anything I can offer to my friends here at TF Metals that can provide more insight into the rocky road ahead than this book.

http://www.amazon.com/The-Harbinger-Ancient-Mystery-Americas/dp/161638610X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1378367679&sr=8-1&keywords=The+Harbinger

Hammer's picture

Not quite sure where to put

Not quite sure where to put this but I don't remember ever seeing this discussed here. Article dates back to May of this year

Profits from exchange-traded funds that back their shares with physical holdings of gold and other precious metals face capital gains taxes as high as 28 percent if the investment was held for more than a year (taxes on short-term profits are higher). That’s the rate applied to items considered “collectibles,” which also include coins, art, and silver.

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-05-30/a-tax-surprise-on-gold-profits?

Hammer's picture

3,249 kg gold imported during

3,249 kg gold imported during July

Staff Reporter

 


Thursday, September 05, 2013 - Islamabad—During the first month of current fiscal yaer, about 3,249 kilogram of gold worth of US$ 134.92 million was imported which showed an increase of 1,119.88 percent as against the same period of last year. According to Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data, during July 2012, about 199 kg of gold worth $11.06 million was imported.

The import of yellow metal also increased by 235.19 kg as compared to the imports worth of $40.252 million during June 2013. 

The overall imports of metal group, registered an increase of 49.39 per cent and 5.88 percent during first month of the year 2013-14, when compared to July 2012 and June 2013 respectively.

 
Xty's picture

Orlov doesn't see the collapse as a bad thing, btw

he sees it as a recurring, built-in, aspect of complex social hierarchical structures.  And in this case he thinks it might be a welcome one, as do many people who see excess everywhere, including many of the posters at this site.

The examples of each stage are taken from different parts of the world, so it is not just his Russian experience that he writes from.  Iceland, then Russia, then the Pashtuns, the Gypsies, and finally, Africa.

The bible is unlikely to be a good guide to current circumstances, I would add, and hope the prophesies can be kept to a minimum.

And Katie's mum should stop watching cable TV and being terrified.  That is a choice, especially at 88.

ag1969's picture

XTY

A very interesting point to add.  I don't think a collapse is necessarily a bad thing.  I view it as the only way to get rid of the entrenched power structure that is stealing all of the wealth.  While it does have serious potential to break bad if they start using their weapons, I just see it as something we have to go through if we want real change.

I hope we go the way of the USSR where one day it is just over without a shot being fired, but the potential certainly exists for this to be really ugly.  I just hope it happens before my Nephew, who is freshly graduated from Parris Island, gets sent off to be cannon fodder for the bankers.

Quite Frankly, I am far more concerned about Fukushima and GMO food than what the politicians are going to bumble next, but the conditions are certainly ripe for a complete tyrant.

A great awakening is our best hope.  I hope Cal is right that we have a shot at it after the commercial collapse.

Rico's picture

These books have been coming

These books have been coming out since the bad ol' Seventies.  The authors do very well, indeed.

Watcher's picture

@Katie

I have read that book. That information has been available for almost 10 years now since it first came out on Sid Roth's program.

The Harbinger teaches that America is under judgment for turning away from God. Sept. 11th was the harbinger of what is to come.

This mess in MENA could well be the thing that triggers more attacks on this nation. I'm in contact with Jeff Nyquist, an excellent geopolitical analyst and writer for financialsense.com. He believes, as do I, that America is being lured into attacking Syria. Iran has been luring America and Israel to attack for quite a while now. And why? It's so that America must look as the aggressor when retaliation and I mean severe retaliations take place. Think WMD not only in the U.S. but also in Israel. That is why I'm concerned about a US strike on Syria.

"President Obama has asked Congress to authorize a limited military strike on Syria in retaliation for the Assad regime’s alleged use of chemical weapons. “Having made my decision as Commander-in-Chief…” said Obama, “I will seek authorization for the use of force from the American people’s representatives in Congress.” The proposed limited strikes against Syria are said by experts to have game-changing implications for the outcome of the Syrian Civil War.

Syrian President Bashar Assad has warned that any military strike by the U.S. against Syria could trigger a regional war. The Iranian government, in support of Syria, has “strongly warned” the United States that there “will be perilous consequences for the region” in the event of an American strike.

Iranian officials are saying that, at the very least, they will retaliate on Israel in the event of an American strike against Syria."

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/jr-nyquist/economics-and-war

****************

So a US strike on Syria will invite an attack on Israel and of course the aggressor, the US.  And Russia has supplied both Iran and Syria with WMDs. The Bear is making its move and a collapse will occur and it won't be a slow collapse imho. It will come as a surprise just like 9/11.

Urban Roman's picture

Dmitry has a blog,

of course. 

ClubOrlov

He posts under the moniker 'Kollapsnik'. 

Mr. Fix's picture

Great post,

I appreciate the focus on discussing what might be lying ahead, especially since I truly feel that the precious metals aren't going anywhere until after the collapse, and even then, there will be other things of far more importance.

Although I'll have more to say later, (don't I always), it seems to me that as opposed to this being a natural cyclical phenomenon which has been repeated throughout history, this particular collapse seems to be well orchestrated, and loosely based  five steps outlined in the post.

One of the reasons I think this is orchestrated, is that steps  two, three, four, and five, are already well on their way to collapse, so that when the currency crashes, it won't be far to go before everything else comes unglued simultaneously.

Probably as a result of the ongoing financial collapse, businesses are closing everywhere, the commercial collapse is well underway. As far as a political collapse, our politicians seem to have no fear whatsoever of the populace, to all those that wrote or called their Congress critters demanding that they vote not to go to war, got predictable results, in that they were most likely ignored. Our political system is already completely broken. I would even contend that the elections themselves are nothing but a dog and pony show, designed to create an illusion that we have a say in things that are beyond our control already.

As far as steps four and five are concerned, a societal collapse, and a cultural collapse has been underway for decades, the very values that used to make a society work, have been condemned by the majority now, hard work seems to be avoided at all costs, family values, are viewed as a quaint old notion, and the cultural decay is It is obvious everywhere you look.

It is my contention, that once you collapse the currency, it will  be readily apparent that the next four steps have already occurred.

Just how bad it is is being masked by all the free handouts by our government, and when the free money stops flowing, all hell will break loose.

I think things have been carefully crafted to come crashing down like a house of cards the moment one of the supports (financial collapse) finally crumbles.

I have personally found that watching this unfold mildly alarming while I prepare for what is coming.

The most alarming part, is the realization as to how oblivious most people are to what should be blatantly obvious. Most people think that what is happening is due to stupidity, without even considering the nefarious motives of those that are running the show.

Of course I will consider that my point  of view has been  shaped by events that are unique to me, and my perspective might be somewhat skewed, and I keep hoping that I am actually wrong, and those telling me that everything will be okay are right.

But as events unfold, they just seem to be confirming my basic premise that what is unfolding will be everyone's worst nightmare.

Have a nice day.wink

¤'s picture

Just bought the book

After repeated comments and recommendations from CA and others mentioning this book I just had to order it.

So I did yes

Xty's picture

Mr Fix - did you read anything Orlov wrote about anything

before you completely disagreed with him?

Do you think other societies and systems collapsed as part of a repetitive natural cycle, and this time it is completely engineered?  Or did you read what he wrote about inherent flaws in hierarchical structures that point to this not being particularly different in terms of the behaviour of the elite, and how to a large extent you would agree with him, except that he sees this as a universal repeating problem (and has case evidence to back him up) and would see the American experiment as not unique in its likely failure.

Here is his description of his book:

This book is based on the identically titled article I published on this blog in February of 2008, just as financial collapse was starting to gather steam. Since then, this article has been read nearly 100,000 times on this blog alone (it has been reposted on many other web sites) and it is its enduring popularity that has convinced me to write a book-length treatment. 

In this article, I proposed a taxonomy of collapse, splitting it out into five stages—financial, commercial, political, social and cultural—and tied each of the five collapse stages to the breaching of a specific level of trust, or faith, in the status quo. Although each stage causes physical, observable changes in the environment, these can be gradual, while the mental flip is generally quite swift, because it is something of a cultural universal that nobody (but a real fool) wants to be the last fool to believe in a lie. 



Stage 1: Financial collapse. Faith in “business as usual” is lost.



Stage 2: Commercial collapse. Faith that “the market shall provide” is lost.



Stage 3: Political collapse. Faith that “the government will take care of you” is lost.



Stage 4: Social collapse. Faith that “your people will take care of you” is lost.



Stage 5: Cultural collapse. Faith in “the goodness of humanity” is lost. 



A casual perusal of history books will show that these various stages of collapse occur with great regularity. Unlike other animals, humans have a marked tendency to form complex social hierarchies which never endure because collapse is programmed into the very nature of complex social hierarchies. In fact, the first three stages can often be viewed as healthy developments...

http://cluborlov.blogspot.ca/p/the-five-stages-of-collapse.html

silver66's picture

Xty--collapse not a bad thing

Richard Maybury is of the same thought process as him. For those that have not read Richard he publishes the Early Warning Report (google it) and has published a series of books. The books ar ethe Uncle Eric series. I would suggest buying and givint to your children to read after you have read them

Silver66

Pining 4 the Fjords's picture

Layers of chess: G20 meeting starts today

Obama just arrived in St. Petersburg and the meetings will be today and tomorrow...  remember, a committee topic is slated to be Reinventing Bretton Woods and it looks like the committee and panel discussion are primarily Russians.

I suspect the press (NYT) coverage will be focused on Syria and stuff like this:

Putin told Russian state television that it was “completely ridiculous” to conclude that Syrian forces were responsible for a chemical weapons attack on Aug. 21, and he said Secretary of State John Kerry “is lying and knows he is lying” about Al-Qaeda’s presence in Syria.... Mr. Obama canceled plans to stop in Moscow first for a separate meeting with Mr. Putin and opted against even a standard courtesy call on his host here in St. Petersburg.

The two will inevitably see each other and even talk on the sidelines of the official meetings here while everyone watches their body language, but even that was made harder by a last-minute change of the seating chart.  Leaders at such summit meetings are typically seated in the alphabetical order of their country names. But according to the Russian newspaper Izvestiya, the Russian government decided to use English letters, not Russian letters, effectively moving Mr. Obama and Mr. Putin farther away from each other.

The important stuff seems like it will be ignored by the press.  Certain countries have grown disillusioned with the USD/Bretton Woods system and if moves are made away from this system or plans hinted at publicly in these meetings, that would be the real news.  I wonder if we will even learn about it, from whatever sources we can find?  Keep your eyes and ears open, Turdites. 

¤'s picture

P4

Thanks for that  G20 heads up and the link.

I agree...we're in a distractive news cycle right now while lots of other big issue's are getting less air time. 

I'll keep my eye's peeled for any notable low key G20  comments.

Watcher's picture

Russia Warns Of Nuclear Disaster If Syria Is Attacked...

Russia Warns Of Nuclear Disaster If Syria Is Attacked...

Of course Spetsnaz could make sure this happens:

"From the first moment of the first day of war the main forces of spetsnaz go into action. From then on the terror is conducted in the name of the Soviet Union and of the Communist leadership: 'red terror'.

But between the 'grey' and the 'red' terror there may be an intermediate period — the 'pink' terror, when active military operations have not yet begun and there is still peace, but when some of the best spetsnaz units have already gone into action. The situation is complicated by the fact that, on the one hand, Soviet fighting units are already in battle, but that, on the other hand, they are not yet operating in the name of the Soviet Union. This is an exceptionally risky moment for the Soviet high command. But he who risks nothing gains nothing. The Soviet commanders want to gain a great deal, and so are ready to risk a lot. A great deal has of course been done to reduce the level of risk. Only a relatively small number of spetsnaz troops take part in the 'pink' terror, but they are the best people in spetsnaz — professional athletes of Olympic class. Everything has been done to make sure that not one of them should fall into the hands of the enemy before the outbreak of war. A great deal has also been done to ensure that, if one of them should fall into enemy hands at that moment, it would be very difficult to establish his connection with any country whatsoever."

http://militera.lib.ru/research/suvorov6/15.html

ag1969's picture

Global Leadership Reset: On Eve of G20, Putin Calls Kerry a Liar

Just before Russian President Vladimir Putin opened the G20 summit in St. Petersburg, he blasted the Obama administration on Wednesday for what he termed its propaganda on military action against Syria. “We talk with these people,” he said about Secretary of State John Kerry, the administration’s chief political spokesperson making the case for war. “We assume that they are decent. But he lies. And he knows that he lies. That’s pathetic.”

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2013/09/04/Putin-Obama-Kerry-G20

Mr. Fix's picture

Xty,

if I inferred by my post that I completely disagreed with  the author, then I might have been misinterpreted, as I find all five steps both valid and particularly pertinent to the situation that we find ourselves in now.

Of course I agree that the stages have been repeated throughout history on a regular basis, and that societal collapse is predictable, and it is due to the nature of man. On all that we agree.

I was only offering for consideration that past collapses, have usually been the result of human nature such as absolute power corrupts absolutely, and that sooner or later the corruption takes down the entire system. 

I was only offering as evidence that there has been a premeditated undermining of all five steps over the past several generations, and that this particular collapse seems to have been pre-engineered, and built into the system in ways that previous collapses have not.

The five steps if left to natural causes would unfold in roughly the order in which they are stated.

It is my contention that at least the last two and probably three steps have already passed.

So to give you an example, if you were to take the fall of the Roman empire, the steps unfolded in the right order, because the corruption of the oligarchs at the top eventually crash the entire system, and it unfolded one step at a time. It is unlikely that the ancient Romans set out to crash their empire from the get-go. They were simply unable to keep their system intact, it collapsed  as a result of its economy and its capital being squandered, to enrich the oligarchs.

I am only proposing this small difference here in that this time the elites at the top had a predetermined plan to use the five steps, and bring about their completion, and that when the currency finally collapses, we will find that  the remaining steps have already been pre-initiated intentionally, and that the total collapse was the goal in the first place, not the result.

It's kind of like reversing cause and effect.

I know that California Lawyer said that he will be addressing points  three, four, and five, next week,

and admittedly, I am off topic by jumping the gun, but historically speaking those steps are the result of the first two steps, this time, those steps, particularly four and five, have been intentionally and systematically undermined for decades.

In the Great Depression, for example, people still had faith in politicians, faith in God and each other, faith in society as a whole, and people worked hard to help each other survive what was arguably an economic collapse.

It will not be that way this time, since then, the very aspects that help hold society together despite   extreme poverty, have been carefully and systematically removed. They are already gone. That was my point.

ag1969's picture

Hilarious

Jon Stewart went NUTS about the U.S. going to War in Syria!

http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/wed-september-4-2013/groundhog-deja-clusterf--k

monkry's picture

Copper-down over a buck

Is this right? Copper down by over a buck this a.m.?

Xty's picture

Yes, it is different this time, what was I thinking ...

arghhh.

(That was sarcasm, in case I am more opaque than usual.  Must be a dark mood making me cryptic.  It is not different this time, it will unfold slowly and then quickly, but not in a radically different fashion.  Could be 100 years of decay under a NWO, for example.  I think things might be a little more like they always are, and a little like the always weren't, for many a year to come.)

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