All Please Consider

This brief "analysis" demands your full consideration.

Please make a summary of all the "unusual" things that are happening. Here's just a short list:

  • Gold flowing out of London to Switzerland and Hong Kong
  • Combined Chinese and Indian demand in Q2 2013 at 586 metric tonnes
  • U.S. interest rates are skyrocketing as foreigners dump U.S. treasuries
  • Steeply falling Comex inventories
  • GLD "inventory" down 435 metric tonnes or 32% YTD
  • JPM stopping to themselves 3/4 of all August gold deliveries
  • JPM flipping from 50,000 net short Comex futures to 75,000 net long
  • GOFO negative for 33 consecutive days and the 6-month now negative at a new, unprecedented low
  • As I type, a slight Comex futures backwardation vs cash out through and including the Feb14 contract

That's nine, separate bullets that took me about two minutes to type. Please use the comments section of this thread to add your own observations to any I may have missed.

Now, please consider the possibility that you, my dear reader, will look back upon this six months from now and think: "How could I be so stupid? All of the signs were there! Why wasn't I buying up all the physical gold I could get my hands on?"

Prepare accordingly.

TF

153 Comments

AlienEyes's picture

FIRST!

FIRST!

Now to read the word of Turd.

silver66's picture

2nd

I second that alieneyes

Silver66

Edit:

India has capital controls now and 18% devaluation of Rupee in approximately a month

Nathanimal's picture

Thurd

First Comment ever....I also read Turds wurds furst. 

I am not surprised to see prices for phyz and futures officially separating. They have been anyway. I went to a local coin show back in March to add to my stack, (Silver was $28-$29 at the time because it had already suffered a couple of brutal take-downs), but these dealers were paying no heed to "spot". Generic bullion rounds were $36. Premium rounds a la ASE's, Maples, Pandas, etc were going for $39-$50....and people were buying by the fistful. 

A month later I visited my LCS (My bank) trying to add to my stack. Stock was LOW. I asked for a tube of ASE's, but he none to sell besides premium collector pieces. In the past 3 years (since I woke up), he ALWAYS had what I was looking for. He said, "I know a guy that might have a tube for sale. I can have it for you Monday. $600 for the tube ($30 a piece). " The bigger bullion retailer down the road was completely sold out of silver. So,  I went back in Monday gave him the money and he told me he'd be back in a few minutes. Took a ride down the road and came back with my tube. For the first time, investing in PM's almost felt like a "drug deal on some kind of shady black market" . It was surreal. Long story short: The squeeze in on. 

Tragically, I lost my stack in a freak boating accident back in June. Now, all I can do is start over with PM's becoming more scarce. (sigh)

Cheers to Turd and followers. We are winning.   

AlienEyes's picture

Margins

Margins going up at retailers.

APMEX and other big online sellers are OUT of some common bullion coins.

edit:

Mine output down about 25%. Why sell now, when it could easily be worth two or three times as much in the near future?

Some big dealers playing the "lag" or "float" game. They delay shipping large orders in case the price goes up radically. If that happens, they refund the money and tell the client they couldn't find the gold which they keep for themselves.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Excellent, silv66 and AE

MODERATOR

Those two push the list to 11.

richterc's picture

India

India imposes capital controls including bullion to fight falling INR...

Loud Noises's picture

Turd

Is it intentional that you mention buying physical gold and not just physical metal, as you usually do?  I'm all into buying metal, but the GSR is still far too in favor of silver now.  Unless we're approaching a FOFOA type scenario, that's the only time I would imagine silver being left out.  Can you clarify?

Turd Ferguson's picture

Silver will participate, that is certain

MODERATOR

However, in this context, silver is simply along for the ride. Gold is the key.

Response to: Turd
realitybiter's picture

JPM

selling the building which houses their gold vault.

BTW, anybody notice the last three nights?  Ground Hog night?  right on queue: coordinated smash, followed by recovery through the morning...check it out on kitco.....

couldn't be intervention could it?  free markets working?  Fed trying to start a landslide, knowing that taper is BS, and attempting to rig lower prices before the knee jerk ascent higher?

And Richard Holder says that he is going to do something about white collar crime 6 years ago....what AG announces to the perps that they are going get investigated?  I am pretty sure a real AG would simply descend on the building like a swat team with a couple hundred agents and lock the whole thing down.....grand standing joke.

 
Dr Jerome's picture

bullet point

Continued systematic dissing of AG & AU in MSM.

AlienEyes's picture

Fiat

US and Japan printing money like crazy....just to name a couple. Many more are doing the same.

Swiss franc devalued.

flyinkel's picture

Virtual blackout of

Virtual blackout of legitimate newsworthy MSM gold information

Lengthy delivery delays

Gold being touted as "relic" when it is a Tier 1 asset.

Proposed gold indentification (and ultimate confiscation?) procedures.  India as test country.

India gold tax on buying to damp public demand.

realitybiter's picture

cue, rather

The AG nonsense is even more infuriating, realizing that the gubmint has every single email, phone call, wire transfer, EVERYTHING that the big banks have communicated for the last 15 years....it aint for a lack of evidence....it is willfull.

I think there is quite a bit of reasonable observed evidence that PM price supression is real and that silver is the derivative (in a price leveraged sense) tool to manage gold....hence, I think when the light of truth is finally shone on this bullshizzle silver will lead gold.....don't get me wrong, I'd own em both....just in case...

R man J's picture

Peak Gold & Stonewalling Germany

1. Peak Gold has been established in yearly trend lower in grams per ton in mining industry.

2. Recent rumors that Germany won't even be getting the 300 tons by 2020.

Cleburne61's picture

US Mint anomaly

Turd....I'm witnessing a very strange thing at the U.S. Mint with bullion retail gold.  It's narrowed a little today, but as of yesterday, Ed Steer mentioned that the sales of silver coins to strict bullion gold coins.....was 305 to 1.  305!  That means silver is outselling gold on a dollar for dollar basis by 5 to 1!

Ridiculous!  Normally even 1 to 1 is severely pushing it.

I ask the question here: is the reason the U.S. Mint is not selling more gold coins, because there is a such a severe shortage of gold, that producing planchettes isn't even possible?  But if that's true....how is it that the premiums on retail bullion coins aren't going vertical yet?  What else could be going on here?

This is a very perplexing question....what's your take on it, guys?

(Btw Turd, thanks for public pieces like these and eventually releasing some of the PW posts.  Keep up the great work!)

P.S.-World gold production as a whole, is down 6% thus far YTD.  Peak gold(and silver) is also a probable reality, as SRS has said.

Silver Alert's picture

Gold is overbought?

Meanwhile Doc is posting up articles that gold is overbought and it's time to sell:

STEWART THOMSON: GOLD IS OVERBOUGHT

Here's 2 (of the 24) bullets in the article:

5.  The US mint reports horrific August gold coin sales, and the Canadian mint is also reporting a drop in demand. If you look at the Asian demand numbers in detail, you’ll notice that most of the big demand came in the first 6 weeks of the second quarter (April 1 – May 16).

6.  In the last 6 weeks of the quarter, demand was weak. Granted, it was weak because of heavy-handed action by Indian central bankers and the government, but it was still weak. For price to rise, demand must overwhelm supply, regardless of the reason for that demand.

Silver Alert's picture

@Cleburne61

AGE sales are down.

Some, as in the article I just referenced in my previous post, will interpret this as demand is down.

Another interpretation is that supply is down.  I wonder which way the market will look at it.

Missiondweller's picture

Great summation Turd

Things seem to be coming to a head of some sort.

Cleburne61's picture

@ SilverAlert

That's the most obvious answer, but I don't think you perceived why I asked the question....

Why would gold sales be down 90% year over year in the world's most popular bullion gold coin, if(year over year) the world's most popular silver coin is higher than ever?

Sure, you could say "gold has gone up $200 since its low, folks are stopping their buying"....but silver is up $5, or 30% from its low, and yet the buying hasn't cooled off one bit.  On the contrary we're going to just about tie the previous August record at this pace.

So, again, my question is: why the cessation....no, the CLIFF DIVE in retail sales in GOLD ONLY?!

Has a negative GOFO of nearly 5 weeks drained wholesale gold so much that retail can't source adequate blanks?  What is going on here?

This outlier in data is so glaring, that it warrants serious attention from all of us.

sierra skier's picture

AGE Sales

AGE Sales are down almost 90% so far this month over just last month. Something is in the winds.

http://www.usmint.gov/about_the_mint/index.cfm?action=PreciousMetals&type=bullion

Bullion Sales/Mintage Figures

2013 American Eagle Bullion (sales totals by month, in ounces/number of coins)

United States Mint American Eagle Platinum Bullion Coins, which are not mandated by public law, have not been produced or offered for sale since 2008.

Gold

 
Month One
( oz. / #coins )
Half
( oz. / #coins )
Quarter
( oz. / #coins )
Tenth
( oz. / #coins )
Total
( oz. / #coins )
January 124,500
124,500
8,500
17,000
6,000
24,000
11,000
110,000
150,000
275,500
February 68,000
68,000
2,500
5,000
3,000
12,000
7,000
70,000
80,500
155,000
March 54,000
54,000
2,000
4,000
2,500
10,000
3,500
35,000
62,000
103,000
April 187,500
187,500
7,000
14,000
6,500
26,000
8,500
85,000
209,500
312,500
May 61,500
61,500
1,000
2,000
1,500
6,000
6,000
60,000
70,000
129,500
June 49,000
49,000
500
1,000
2,000
8,000
5,500
55,000
57,000
113,000
July 43,000
43,000
2,000
4,000
2,000
8,000
3,500
35,000
50,500
90,000
August 3,500
3,500
500
1,000
500
2,000
500
5,000
5,000
11,500
September 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
October 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
November 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
December 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Total 591,000
591,000
24,000
48,000
24,000
96,000
45,500
455,000
684,500
1,190,000

Silver

Nathanimal's picture

Poor man's gold?

I would venture to say that it's just because silver is more affordable. More and more people are catching on that fiat is BS, so we're seeing more people buying PM's to stash away for WHEN the dollar tanks. For median income households It's harder to think about dropping $1500 or $1600 on an oz of gold, but studiously picking up 3-5 oz of Silver every pay day is much more manageable for casual stackers.  

At least, this is how my brain would explain that AG/AU sales ratio. 

Turd Ferguson's picture

Actually, I discussed this in detail in yesterday's podcast

MODERATOR

Everyone portrays this as a demand issue. It's not. It's a SUPPLY issue.

Remember, the law authorizing The Mint was changed in 2011. No longer does the SecTread have to mint "as many coins as demanded". Now he must only mint "as many as he sees fit".

Response to: US Mint anomaly
Urban Roman's picture

Bullet Point

"Monetary Metals" over on ZH is having more of a struggle when cherry-picking data to prove a bear market. 

Cleburne61's picture

Ahh

Forgive me for asking what's been covered...but such is the limitation of a man who's not part of the paywall experience...

At least, perhaps, this would indicate that I'm on the right trail in my line of questioning. lol

I agree that the law was changed....but looking at the hard #'s being churned out by the govt....if you include commemoratives and 5 oz America the Beautiful coins.....the US Mint will burn through 50 million oz of silver this year.

There was only one other year the US Mint used more silver than that, and I forget the year, but it was like late 1890's, and they made so many Morgan dollars, that they used 57 million oz.  So....even with the rationing of silver, this is the 2nd highest amount of silver ever struck(per annum) by the US Govt in 230 years....

Are you suggesting then that the Sec Treasurer has put an even more severe rationing on gold eagle production?  This is a likely scenario, but if that's true....why aren't gold eagle premiums 30, 40, or 50% yet?  Still so puzzling.

Thanks for your response, sir.(And btw, when I read your real name in the tell all you courageously published, I thought "Huh, sounds made up!  I like Turd Ferguson better!")

H8Fiat's picture

Bullet #12

My name is MCC, chew killed my portfolio, prepare to die.

realitybiter's picture

MCC

I believe it should be,"you killed my purchasing power, prepare to die...

The Doc's picture

To make it clear, I don't

To make it clear, I don't agree with Stewart Thomson's assessment that gold demand has plunged, and included an editor's note in that article that we have NOT seen such a decline in PM demand at SDBullion over the past few weeks- if anything, demand is increasing.

-Doc

Hawkman's picture

Re: It's a supply issue...

Exactly right TF.

Was going to bring that up as well.

Yet another rewriting of the rules in anticipation of the time when SecTreas simply decides 'enough is enough'.

Not the first time 'they' have changed the posting on the barn to rewrite reality.

-Jack

meegoreng1's picture

Silver is the key not Gold!

We will all be vindicated when Silver rises and starts shooting up. Until then the EE  will be in control of the metals.

Can anyone here tell me if the EE is currently not 100% in control of  the prices? (Even with all the factors mentioned above.) And they will continue to be in control like they have been for decades as long as they want until there is change on this one and only factor: PHYSICAL DEMAND FOR SILVER!

It does not apply to gold since all central bankers work together and they have plenty of gold to supply among them to ease supply. 

Silver on the other hand is not stored like gold. There has only  been unsubstantiated rumor that it is. I can see gold going up but it will not be allowed to to go much above its previous high as that would wake up the sheeple. The EE has big plans for digital currencies and a  cashless society in the future. Skyrocketing gold prices will be a huge hindrance to their nefarious plans.

Silver is our only weapon/protection against these criminals! Even if silver rises to 3 digits, it will be looked upon as an anomaly. Just like Palladium has. We will also know when silver is  about to rise when we see constant and strong buying from Asia.

¤'s picture

Nathanimal

Welcome aboard! I like and agree with your comment on the gold/silver sales ratio.

The plunge in the price of gold from $1900 to $1200 has many folks holding onto their money and thinking twice about spending a big chunk of money on one gold coin when many more silver ounces are seen as more affordable and "$afer".

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