Happy Tuesday? Not so much...

With expiration and FND tomorrow, the chances of a "Happy Tuesday" are pretty slim.

If you haven't yet, please give a listen to yesterday's podcast. It's about 20 minutes of helpful information but the second half is where I get into some of the shenanigans and games played during expiration week. Air pockets are easily discovered and exploited and the result is some significant volatility, which we have already experienced to some degree earlier today.

Just a couple of items for now...

First, Andy's segment with Max Keiser is now available at RT and YouTube. It's also embedded below. PLEASE take the time to watch it. Though edited into the standard 15-minute format, Max and Andy cover a lot of material and bring a number of current "issues" into focus.

Next, instead of my charts, I'd like you to review this piece from KWN over the weekend. You've heard me state before that Tom Fitzpatrick and Louise Yamada are the only two technicians for whom I have great respect. Fortunately, both are made readily available to us via KWN. In this piece from last Friday, Tom Fitzpatrick goes into significant detail regarding the basis of his near-term forecasts for gold and silver. Lots and lots of pretty charts here, too. When you have a moment, please review this entire piece: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/7/26_Gold_%26_Silver_Continue_To_Climb_The_Stairway_To_Hell.html

And this is fun...Our old pal and comrade, SRSrocco, was recently interviewed by Dan at Future Money Trends. This is a very informative interview and I'm glad to support the efforts of SRS and Dan. Well done, guys!

 

That's all for now but look for another podcast later today. Hang in there and keep the faith!

TF

 

125 Comments

Trappist's picture

first

first

Turd Ferguson's picture

Oh and two more things...

MODERATOR

Please remember that we are holding a special, one day promotion with SD Bullion on Friday. Lots of very good deals and a cut of the proceeds flows directly to TFMR.

And I'm planning our first "Access to Access" podcast for later this week with Alasdair Macleod. If you have any questions for Alasdair, please submit them in the comments of this thread or via email.

Dr Jerome's picture

are we wxpecting another beatdown

Turd, you posted a chart with a article a few weeks ago showing a patern of beatdowns just before options expiration, presumably to shake people out of their long positions.

Are we expecting that for August, everyone? I am itching to use a bit of dry powder.they have certainly been holding a capa on things. A bit of a downtrend this week and next might portend another smack.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Doc

MODERATOR

The pattern was that the beatdowns almost always began on or around the 12th of the delivery month.

Dec 12

Feb 12

Apr 12

June 12

So, watch the action in two weeks very closely...http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4827/pattern-emerges

Gold Dog's picture

Forth

Mind your own business you Gubbmint oppressors!!

Secret Dog

Pining 4 the Fjords's picture

Wow, TF

What a great interview to get-  I would be really interested in Alasdair could flesh-out his recent comments on the 1,300 tons of gold from the BOE he believes were leased into the markets in the first half of 2013:

1. What portion of this does he believe was actual physical transfers lost into the market (i.e.- physical potentially shipped east after being snapped up by bargain buyers)

2. Does he believe this is a proximal cause for the bear run in gold during this recent period, resulting in the sub-1300 price. 

3.  Pacific Group Hedge fund manager William Kaye recently hinted in a KWN interview that his refiner in Hong Kong was melting and recasting into kilogram sizes gold that came from Western Central banks... I.E., 400oz Good Delivery bars with the stamps of Western central banks (i.e. Bundesbank, etc).  Kaye may have gotten himself in a bit of hot water over this, and refused to give any more details (I actually emailed one of his employees, never received a reply) and requests to Kaye from the blogosphere that he expand on this for information have gone unanswered regarding the specifics... same thing for the refiner.  Does Alasdair believe it possible that some of this BOE gold has been shipped to Hong Kong refineries and melted down?

Thanks!

Turd Ferguson's picture

DPH mentioned this yesterday

MODERATOR

I've been thinking about it, too.

Not sayin...Just sayin...

 

tmosley's picture

For Alasdair: Do you think

For Alasdair:

Do you think there is a parallel between the SIFO rates going negative for much of 2011 and negative GOFO rates today?

Do you have access or know where to get access to SIFO rates since they stopped publishing them late last year?

¤'s picture

Yep...

Totally OT by DrkPurpleHaze

15 hours 17 min ago

Is it my imagination or has there been a seemingly excessive amount of commuter transportation tragedies lately?

Makes me wonder just a little bit if an act of cyber war won't involve some element of this type of "mishap" here and there in the future where hacking of systems can be achieved from abroad and used on another countries domestic facilities or transportation carriers of all types.

If Iran can bring a US drone down and the West (US or Israel) can blow up an Iranian oil depot or facility of some sort (hacking strategic valve systems) then anything seems possible.

Here's the latest...I think a brutal train crash just happened within the last 36 hours in Italy also. What gives? Just odds?

Dozens injured in head-on collision of trains in Switzerland

According to reports, rescue crews rushed to the scene on Monday when two trains crashed into each other, injuring scores of people, four of them seriously.

Hunt brother's picture

Repost from July 8....update comment to follow

  • Reply to: Back At It

    Silver Wheaton...July of 2012 by Hunt brother

    3 weeks 21 hours ago

    This time last year Silver Wheaton SLW was trading $25 to $27 with spot silver catching support at $26.50.

    In July 2012 , I built a position in SLW sept2012 calls with a strike of 30. SLW was $40 on expiration date. I sold my calls for $5 when SLW hit $35 in early Sept.

    I made a ten bagger. In July 2013, I am putting on the same trade. I am buying Sept 2013 with a $25 strike. I like to buy on Tuesday, tomorrow will be the second of three buys. This is a ten bagger or lose 100 percent position for me.

  •  
Hunt brother's picture

Update on Silver Wheaton 10 bagger strategy...

Good progress thus far, with the stock rising from under 20 to over 23.

The sept2013 call options are now 90 cents. I bot a batch July 2 for 50 cents and a second batch July 9 for 38 cents. I did not buy the third batch on July 16 as planned. I bot a batch of Royal Gold calls on july 9 instead.

The Silver Wheaton 10 bagger objective remains in place. The stock needs to rise to $30 for the options to be $5. The trade is still a viable 5 bagger at this point for those who are now entering the strategy.

dropout's picture

Summer Doldrums

The height of the Summer doldrums are here. Right on schedule, 8 of the last 11 Summers have seen this.

Sit back and 'pop' a cool one, while watching all the chickens run thither and yon, with their heads off!

Nothings changed. QE is here to stay and as a consequence ZIRP will remain in place. Both gold and silver will continue to be beaten down. After all, can't have the shiney showing paper fiat for what it is!

By all means read all the items posted by all the "analysts", as they beat their chests and crow from rooftops about this and that, look over there, this is what will happen, I expect, should do, etc. etc.

So. Enjoy a cool one and chill out. Nothing has changed except maybe Bunny has a bit of a sunburn, while out at the Hampden's!    

Dyna mo hum's picture

Transportation incidents

Don't forget "Wi To Low" on final approach a couple  hundred feet to low. Three people in cockpit and no one notices the landing gear getting wet?Perfect visual flight rule conditions. GPS hacked or jammed? Flight systems hacked? Was the flight crew playing angry birds on the ipad? Bullshit!

Strongsidejedi's picture

Gold leasing - Risk! - not just a board game

Grant Williams (interviewed by Mike Maloney in link I posted above) speaks for 25 minutes on fractional gold reserve behavior by central banks.

Williams demolishes the assumption that sovereign governments have the gold reserves they claim.

Jakarta Expat's picture

@Dyna

Personally I like the ole American standby 3rd on the list below.

Dyna mo hum's picture

Jakarta

But what do I know. I can't even spell we too low.smiley

The Watchman's picture

US Mint UPDATE-950,000 More ASE's SOLD

Silver

 
Month One
( oz. / #coins )
January 7,498,000
7,498,000
February 3,368,500
3,368,500
March 3,356,500
3,356,500
April 4,087,000
4,087,000
May 3,458,500
3,458,500
June 3,275,000
3,275,000
July 4,406,500
4,406,500
August 0
0
September 0
0
October 0
0
November 0
0
December 0
0
Total 29,450,000
29,450,000
The Green Manalishi's picture

BoE helped sell looted Nazi gold

The Bank of England played a vital role in one of the darkest episodes in central banking history, facilitating the sale of gold looted by the Nazis after their invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1938.

According to a hitherto unpublished history of the BoE’s activities in and around the second world war, the UK’s central bank sold gold on behalf of the Reichsbank – which Germany’s central bank had seized from its Czech counterpart – after the UK government had frozen all Czech assets held in Britain following the Nazi invasion.

 

In March 1939, gold valued at the time at £5.6m was transferred from the National Bank of Czechoslovakia’s account at the Bank for International Settlements, the so-called central bankers’ bank, to an account managed on behalf of the Reichsbank.

The episode has long weighed on the reputation of the BIS. However, what has received less attention is the role of the BoE in the affair. What emerges from the history, which appeared on the BoE’s website on Tuesday, is that the UK’s central bank prioritised the appeasement of the BIS over the British government’s wishes to freeze the sale of Czech assets.

 
rxman's picture

Critical Thinking

Turd Ferguson World Tour "Exposing the Real Money vs Ponzi Scheme of the Global Elite"

Goal: Reverse MOPE.

Target Audience: All successful people in terms of fiat currency. eg White collar professionals.

Admission: 2 fiat C notes. Value added: the education and one commemorative one ounce silver bullion coin.

Venue: 10,000 in attendance and then do the math.

Speakers: World renown plenty of them.

rxman "Dream big dreams and make them reality"

Strongsidejedi's picture

enjoy a battlestar break

This video is from a trailer made.

The metaphor for us should be obvious, but I will explain further.

Apollo is one of the sole leading survivors who defend freedom and the human race from domination by the cylon war machine.

It's obvious to me why the Hollywood TV moguls did not pick this story line.  It's about freedom from the cylon war machine.  The moguls in Hollywierd were funded by the military industrial complex and by the wall street algo's in 1998-2008.  There was no way they were going to fund a storyline about a bunch of human beings dismantling an algo driven cyborg surveillance state.

Strongsidejedi's picture

@RXMAN-theme song

Strongsidejedi's picture

@Green Manlishi - Re: BOE & Gold

The appearance of GLD and the disappearance of the GLD inventory over the past six months suggests to me that the BoE may have been in charge all along.

I can not help but see a correlation to the experience of Mark Carney in Canada/US finance and now the same person running BoE for the Queen.

It appears the "lax" job or the "complacency" at BoE has been over since her visit in December 2012.

ancientmoney's picture

I don't recall this quote getting exposure . . . .

from the MSM at the time.  Under his breath, maybe?  From 321gold site:

"Once we squeeze all we can out of the United States, it can dry up and blow away."
-Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, 2002

ancientmoney's picture

HAARP? . . .

Orange's picture

For Alasdair or anybody

We are told how many bars are located at the BoE.

Do we know the total number of bars that should be at the BoE based upon what sovereigns and others have reported? Does it match?

Even if we can't find all the information, as I suspect the Arabs don't report it, perhaps the total number known through public knowledge may still exceed what they state is there.

agNau's picture

Expected progression...

TSA/DHS agents in train stations......

Orange's picture

Alasdair wrote this last Jan.

This suggests that the amount of gold held by the Bank of England should be significantly greater than the 5,738 tonnes declared, particularly when bullion bank deposits within that total are accounted for. And if Austria’s 80% in London is anything to go by, despite the obvious convenience of the rival Zurich market on her doorstep, the custody figure should be closer to 11,500 tonnes.

http://www.lewrockwell.com/2013/01/alasdair-macleod/bank-of-england-gold-the-doubtsremain/

Given that 1,300 tonnes just left that would leave 4,438 tonnes.

Would be nice if one or more individuals of prominence could list known holdings adding up to more than declared.

That would/could create a BoE bank run.   

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