A New Week Begins
I'm not going to be around much this week, either, but I thought we should start the week in the usual manner.
That very nice, short-covering rally sure felt good on Friday. Let's see where we go from here. I'd say there's a pretty high likelihood that all those who covered on Friday will soon circle back around and attempt to re-apply their shorts so expect some weakness and volatility early this week. If they don't or if their attempts to restart momentum to the downside are thwarted, you can plainly see where these charts begin to have, at a minimum, a temporary bottom.
Gold would first need to move through $1250 but then any rise through $1300 would be very constructive and give hope to all those looking for a bottom.
Silver has a similar chart. Several attempts to break down through $18.50 have been unsuccessful and now $19.50 is holding as support. The key level to regain, though, looks to be about 20.25-20.50. IF silver can clear and hold there, the chart will begin to look like a capitulative bottom with the next major hurdle being a move back UP through $22.
The major event this week with undoubtedly be the BLSBS on Friday. (Jeez Louise, has it been another month already?) Recall that much "changed" after the BLSBS of early May. http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4713/it-edward Check out these prices from Friday, May 3rd:
10-year note: 1.6% (Now 2.5% and the avalanche of selling continues: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100852546)
DJIA: 15,000 (apparently the only remaining "safe haven" is U.S. equities)
So, we'll see what this Friday brings. Tungstenman Sachs is already on the record, warning The Muppets that the NFP "may disappoint". http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-30/goldman-we-think-payrolls-will-likely-disappoint This almost assures a strong, LIESman-pleasing number.
The Egyptian situation bears watching this week. This latest series of headlines would seem to point toward some type of resolution soon. I wonder if this will re-embolden the protesters in Turkey? These from ZeroHedge:
*EGYPTIAN MILITARY SAYS WON'T BE PART OF POLITICS
*EGYPT MILITARY SAYS NATIONAL SECURITY SUBJECTED TO GRAVE DANGER
*EGYPTIAN MILITARY SAYS PROTESTS 'UNPRECEDENTED'
*EGYPTIAN MILITARY SAYS HOMELAND FACING DIRE SITUATION
*EGYPT'S MILITARY SAYS WILL NOT BE PARTY TO POLITICS OR POWER
*EGYPT MILITARY SAYS CALLS FOR MEETING THE DEMANDS OF THE PEOPLE
*EGYPT MILITARY MAY HAVE TO OFFER ROADMAP AFTER 48 HOURS
Crude is back to $98 on this news. Again, watch the $100 level very closely. Any sustained move through there will be your clue that events are beginning to spin out of control in the entire MENA (Egypt, Libya, Syria, Iran, Turkey, wherever)
And, finally, our friend Alasdair has written an interesting piece over at GoldMoney. While the supposedly "free" and "market-based" economies employ Keynesianism to its inevitable death, the "authoritarians" follow Von Mises to prosperity and eventual domination. Do we live in interesting times or what? http://www.goldmoney.com/gold-research/alasdair-macleod/russia-and-china-building-their-gold-reserves.html
Again, look for more guest posts and assorted other gems as we roll through the week. Keep the faith and persevere. Though the paper price volatility will continue, your physical metal remains invaluable.