Time For A Break

You know how they say that dogs can sense an impending earthquake? Don't you kind of feel that way these days? I know I do.

First, it seems that everything is down. Stocks. Bonds. Commodities. Every currency. If there's a market for it, it's being sold. The only thing that is consistently rising this past week is The Pig. And once those dollars are bought, where are they going? Apparently nowhere. Very strange. Almost ominous.

Then you've got very knowledgeable folks like Bill Holter at MilesFranklin blaring the alarm with columns like this: http://blog.milesfranklin.com/the-great-unwind-has-finally-arrived and this: http://blog.milesfranklin.com/the-button-has-been-pushed-ready-or-not

We've got Santa, who is clearly very, very nervous. He's practically begging you to meet him somewhere for a discussion: http://www.jsmineset.com/2013/06/24/chicago-vancouver-and-scottsdale-qa-session-tickets-still-available/ And he keeps posting messages urging you to Get Out of The System (GOTS) as quickly as possible. Just yesterday, he linked two articles which you really do need to take some time to consider:

http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-76-is-available-Alert-for-the-second-half-of-2013-Global-systemic-crisis-II-second-devastating-explosion-social_a14266.html  &

http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/06/u-s-banks-crisis-plan-fed/

There are items such as this, which I found at ZeroHedge: http://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/mid-year-digest/

And Chris Martenson, who I know to be a very wise and sober fellow, got into the act, too: http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/82210/everything-being-sold

So here we are. Look, I don't know if the financial world is ending this week or next or even this year, but I do know that the current system is unsustainable. To that end, your only financial protection is the physical possession of gold and silver. Not paper derivatives. Not ETFs. Not a basket of mining stocks. Physical metal, in your own two hands.

For those of you upset about the current, eight-month decline of fiat-conversion value, I'm sorry. If having gold and silver consistently move higher in terms of dollars would make you feel more comfortable, I regret that that hasn't happened for you. If you are sitting upon unrealized losses which makes you feel uncomfortable, I apologize and I wish I could make it different for you. But I can't.

However, you need to remember that we live in extraordinary times. Those spouting disinformation about the future price of gold are either hopelessly misinformed or deliberately trying to mislead you. The global forces at work behind the scenes have been in control and remain in control of the paper metal market. The past eight months have been a coordinated effort to crush price, thereby freeing physical for immediate delivery and allowing The Bullion Banks to cover paper short positions, transferring the future risk and liability to the Specs. This has now been accomplished and I firmly believe that we are very near a price bottom.

One day, very soon, paper price will reverse and head higher. Then, one day in the future, paper price will no longer exist as price resets multiples higher with the emergence of a new global financial paradigm. Please understand: THIS IS NOT AN OPPORTUNITY FOR "PROFIT". This is simply an opportunity to protect and defend all that you have accumulated to this point in your life.

To that end and to personally prepare, I'm going to be taking a few days off. Over the next two weeks, I'll still post from time to time but I'll also be sharing some "guest posts" from a handful of your favorite site regulars. Then, come next month, I plan to make a few changes to the way we do things around here. Nothing earth-shattering but necessary changes, nonetheless.

In the meantime, stay alert. Now is not the time to be complacent. Trust your instincts and use your brain. Double-check that you have acquired enough physical metal and consider buying even more. The End of The Great Keynesian is upon us. Please continue to prepare accordingly.

TF

617 Comments

TD's picture

Lighten up folks!

Barrack Obama, Michelle Obama and Oprah Winfrey were flying on Obama's
private plane. Obama looked at Oprah, chuckled and said, 'You know, I
could throw a $1,000 bill out of the window right now and make somebody very
happy .

 

 Oprah shrugged her shoulders and replied, 'I could throw ten
$100 bills out of the window and make ten people very happy. 

 

 Michelle added, That being the case, I could throw one hundred $10 bills out of
the window and make a hundred people very happy.'  

 Hearing their exchange the pilot rolled his eyes and said to his co-pilot,
Such big-shots back there.  I could throw all of their asses out of the window
and make 56 million people very happy.' 

Kcap's picture

WOOOOOOOHOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Another day of awesome prices. 

Thank you, thank you Dear Lord.

Kcap

ps.  Humor....use it if you are miserable right now because this buying opportunity, although 110% manipulated, is a wonderful bargain for all those who will need it.  Once its gone, its gone.

Xty's picture

I had an uncle who gave me silver dollars on my birthday

How do you trade that?  I know it sounds simplistic, but it is and that is why it is so trustable.   I was born before Nixon took the US, and us by extension, off the gold standard.  I have a vague memory of money having intrinsic value (and dinosaurs), and I know that all previous fiat currencies have failed.  The future will be different from the past in ways we cannot imagine, but in some ways it is likely to be much like the past.  So why wouldn't you keep some portion of your 'wealth' in a medium that has proved its worth over millennia and that cannot be created out of thin air?

ggnewmex's picture

what about supply!!

I just cannot get off this point!! Miners are going to either go broke or stop producing, period.

Smart people are getting that!!

This take-down  makes me think I am even more right than before!!. SURE I want the prices higher, but, it is better to have it , than not. Stocks went up today, basically because the economy stinks worse than thought. Therefore, QE infinity is back in play. THat should be good for PM's, but no!! First day notice is 2 days away, who doesn't think this a direct correlation!!

abguy4's picture

Max explains the rot at the Top

Max Keiser explains the relationship between;

Carlyle Group / Booz-Allen / Snowden / Wall St / PM's -- all in four precious minutes:

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x1192ce_confidence-in-us-economy-crumbling-after-snowden-leaks_news#.UctSoOuAfy8

Where does this rabbit hole end?

Hell........ I thought we were already in Wonderland

Kcap's picture

Some ideas for those in the dumps....(and @ zman)

Have yard sales.

Sell things that can bring in fiat that you don't need.  Convert at these prices and lower if they go there.  Own something real, tangible and that will serve you well in the future.

Think about what you really need to survive on spaceship Earth.  Do we really need that 3rd car?  Do we really need that 3rd LCD TV?  Or the 2nd?  Or even the first?  Do we really need that collectible motorcycle?

Just things to ponder.

Keep smiling all the way to zero.  (you know what I mean)

And zman:

The Physical market overtaking the paper price mechanism discussed here is about the COMEX going kaput and the paper price (shenanigans associated with the COMEX) going away to be replaced with another pricing mechanism that actually is NON-LEVERAGED and is backed 100% by PHYSICAL assets, not some ridiculous fractional reserve, ass-backwards version of reality that exists today.  It doesn't mean that the world's citizens will rise up and buy everything to sink the enemy's battleship.  I know that might be difficult to understand, but stick around, you'll come to understand the honest side of life hanging out here.

Kcap

Kcap's picture

ggnewmex = smart man

Thats all.

Kcap

JY896's picture

Define 'collapse'

@alan2012, mostly

The whole premise of this blog is that the current, USD-based global monetary system has been brought to within shouting distance of a breakdown. What exactly will happen IF such an event should take place is open to discussion, as is the question of WHETHER it will happen (and if so when).

My premise is that both the collapse, as well as the steps taken to avoid said collapse will result in a destruction of the buying power of the dollar. My secondary premise is that the property rights we have all taken for granted over the past several decades have gradually (then blatantly) been usurped via the financial system. Just because you have a computer screen showing you that you own something (deposits in a bank, stocks, futures contracts, bonds, etc.) does not mean that you are fully in control of and can dispose of said assets when the intermediary becomes illiquid or insolvent. The same goes for owning a piece of property in a Latin American or Southeast Asian country that undergoes a marxist revolution (I know, I know, but for argument's sake) or a military coup -- yes, I hold the deed. If I show up, I MIGHT be able to take possession and use the land/house. Or it might have been confiscated, merged into a collective farm or handed out to the coup leader's cronies.

Thus to ME, anything that is NOT physically in my control, carries a massive discount to its 'true' value (by that I mean current market price). If I were to bring it onto my ledger, I would have to apply a 20%-30%-50%-whatever haircut when booking its value TO ME.

It has further become apparent to me that, because of the activities of the Central Banks and the massively concentrated, almost unlimited firepower of its primary dealers and their downstream partners, the price discovery of said assets (equities, bonds, land) have become massively distorted. So I don't even know what price my non-physical discount should start from.

I am not sure how to answer comments about the current paper price of PMs having declined. Yes, they have. In terms of the highly elastic (and apparently, changing-on-a-case-by-case basis) yardstick of the USD. Yes, currently the USD is still the basis of the global monetary system, and so in that sense the purchasing power of my PM holdings HAVE declined. Yes, markets can stay irrational longer than an individual investor can stay solvent. Don't go all in on PMs. Have a reasonable set of preparations in your household to survive emergencies, whatever your definition of one might be. Look into means and modes of self-sustenance in terms of food & water. Try not to worry about the collapse. It will come (or won't) without any regard for you or anyone else.

PS: List of countries I could immediately find yuan currency swap agreements (many also have bilateral yuan/local currency trade agreements):

Japan, United Kingdom, South Korea, Russia, Brazil, Malaysia, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Australia, Belarus, Argentina, New Zealand, BRICS I may have left out

Underway: France, probably more

I have seen firsthand the effects and circumstances of arbitrary confiscation of family wealth. I have seen families desperate to sell anything of intrinsic value to survive, heck - I bought from them. I've seen non-hyper, regular inflation strip away the savings and purchasing power of otherwise prudent, hard-working people who thought they were doing all the right things. Things don't need to COLLAPSE to get slowly and gradually worse. I have CHOSEN to save my surplus income in PMs for a whole host of personal reasons -- expecting to 'get rich quick' was the very last one on the list (though I'll take it, if it should come).

Taking sufficient care to build defensible, logical reasons for the views you hold, then taking consistent, rational steps on the basis of that world view is everyone's PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY. I am not giving anyone advice, I am merely stating what I believe, why, and what I am doing about it. Same goes for EVERYONE on the board, especially Turd.

bullion only's picture

If you bought those apple

If you bought those apple shares at $75 and it was $399 you would not be crying.

If you still believed in apple's future you would not be crying.

If you bought apple at $700 you would be.

I bought at sub $400. I sell a few here and there but I only take the loss of what I would have made by selling at the all time high on only those few coins I sell.

Good luck to all and I do sense a bottom.

You do close the mines and don't double the wages of the South African workers at these prices.

Eventually with that senario supply runs out.

I have always been a believer that we will know at the margins.

In southern cal where I live a very large LCS sells and has everything.

They buy directly from mints.

First to run out will be maple leafs because Canada is out of gold.

Then no new panda's because China is not sending any over(may already be happening)

Then no Swiss pamps which they have so many of that they buy back below spot

Then no philharmonics because of the high demand in Europe.

Then no eagles because our own mint will be out.

Some event will make this happen like a major bank, maybe Deutsche bank. going under or another bail in.

Perhaps a false flag event, perhaps oil prices spiking due to war and more miners shut down, perhaps a GLD default.

The draining at GLD will continue until the arbitrage trade and short covering is no longer profitable or when there is no more gold.

GLD will settle in cash and metal will be unavailable at any price near these levels.

Anyway just some random thoughts.

RT

foggyroad's picture

Voice of Reason

Thank You Xty,

I love your posts, and I for one know that you are definitely all woman.

A very intelligent woman at that!

As far as Pirating, attacking ships at Sea, and swabbing decks, Keel holing and such, I 'll simply have to take yar waurd fer it.

Arrhh Matey.

Keep the wind in yer sails Lass.

foggy

foggyroad's picture

JY896

yes

another, Voice of Reason.

What a fine village we have here, thanks all.

TF, enjoy your time off, you deserve it.

foggy

Kerbouchard's picture

Dear Turdites,Even Richard

Dear Turdites,

Even Richard Russell is having second thoughts;

I woke up last night, and realized that the facts have changed drastically, and it was high time for me to change my stance, and my opinions, and I mean change them across the board.

I believe we are in a period of world deflation and deleveraging. Why kid myself, gold after eleven years of successively higher year-end figures, has lapsed into a bear market. The huge rise from 200 to 1900 has never been corrected, and the rise is over. We are now seeing a correction of the entire gold bull market. To make it more dramatic, neither the public nor the funds have been participants in the gold bull market, and they are smarting and angry at having missed out on the greatest bull market of the postwar period. Thus, they are publicly gloating and gleeful as the dollar price of gold sinks.

RR has changed his mind many times over the years -- and that's as it should be.  Life changes, also.  Nevertheless, when the dean of financial newsletters is seemingly capitulating, it makes me nervous.

BUT, having lived through gold and silver corrections for decades, and especially since 2001, I've seen this scenario play out countless times.  A couple of months ago on TFMR, I recalled a particularly trying time back in July, 2002, when the brutal (at the time) correction can barely be noticed on the current 10-year chart (it's miniscule).

I'm sorry if being a raging bull upsets some, but, in my opinion, this bull market in precious metals is far from over.  I wish I were more technically sophisticated, but from a fundamental point of view, and mathematical certainty (as previously described by the Great Turd), this ain't over by a long shot.

Lastly, from one of the Soprano episodes:

"Fear knocked at the door.  Faith answered. 

There was no one there."

Edit:  Not sure why the italicized paragraphs didn't translate in whole.  "...as the dollar price of gold sinks" is the end of what should have been the italicized quote.

tpbeta's picture

Wait wait wait

This may be a correction or it may be a generational wipe out. If the former, a buying opportunity will come in the next 6 months, and you'll feel the wind change if you know what to look out for. If the latter, take your licks and move on.

alan2102's picture

leeson_was_framed on Depopulation

I want to commend leeson_was_framed for his/her excellent post titled "depopulation", back on page 11:
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/326284#comment-326284

Leeson writes:
"There was a post earlier in this thread about this, stating that it made us look like nuts to bring it up."

Well, no, I don't think we're nuts to bring it up. It is the WAY it is brought up that too often makes us look like nuts: the flakey accusations against (e.g.) Bill & Melinda Gates, suggesting that their vaccine promo work has genocidal intents (yes, some crazies actually say this!), and other such rubbish. MUCH other such rubbish. I am just picking that example out of the hat; there are many more such examples. Amidst the paranoid right and conspiriology circles, you can find tons of that kind of thing.

"In this world of the educationally challenged, that is probably true.
Those who propose the hypothesis don't know how to present it"

That's putting it mildly!

Leeson goes on to present a VERY plausible, level-headed outline of just how the economic deterioration of our society is likely to result, over time, in rising mortality rates and hence, eventually, population reduction. In brief:

"rising unemployment will result in an un-supportable burden on the welfare system. This will be made worse by rising prices for scarce resources. The only solution will be rationing of available resources. Given the number of people on welfare at present, the level of income at this stage will be close to subsistence. For older people this will mean less food, less heat , more stress. For all ages it will mean deteriorating health, and huge stress on the healthcare system. This will result in a significant increase in the death rate and the resulting poverty will probably reduce both births while increasing infant mortality."

Yep. That's about how it will come down. No wild paranoid fantasies about mass murder required. No wild right-wing blathering about mass herding of people into death camps needed. No Master Elite Plan to Destroy the West involved. Just the end product of numerous mega-trends already well underway -- trends that are themselves the products of thousands and millions of mini-trends, institutional and individual decisions going back many decades.

See? Depopulation can be intelligently discussed. Just not by undereducated paranoid right-wing cranks.

My hat is off to Leeson for setting the example!

Lady Gaugau's picture

Fundamentals

I'm just checking to make sure ... fundamentals are still strong. Is that right?

Anyone? Anyone?

Kcap's picture

To the man who pretends to be a lady...

Yes.

Kcap

AlienEyes's picture

I got it ! I got it !

1) The price we pay for silver and gold is determined by the (paper) market price.
 
2) The paper markets are fixed and their respective “prices” are total feline excrement.
 
3) The fiat (dollar, euro, play money) price the above markets indicate is, at best, canine excrement.
 
4) The value of all fiat currencies is stated in terms of their relation to each other, not to gold. Using a fiat conversion chart to determine the value of gold is f00king stupid.
 
5) All fiat currencies are fixed, manipulated, f00ked up and worthless.
 
6) Ben Bernanke is f00ked up and totally worthless. This is why he got his job....qualifications.
 
7) If any of us wrote checks like Bozo Ben, we would have a record as long as a roll of toilet paper.
 
8) Ben doesn’t give a snail turd because he knows that paper money is really worthless. After all, he made it that way.
 
9) Bat shit Ben will pay dearly for his treasonous and illegal crimes just like that thieving ass hole, Jon Corzine.
 
10) ALL market values stated in terms of any fiat currency are “fixed” and thinking otherwise is like betting every cent you have on a carnival shell game.
 
11) When the duplicitous bastard rats finally go to far, the entire sac du merde will hit the sidewalk like ten pounds of fat in a five pound bag.
 
12) When the organic fertilizer hits the airplane propeller, even the majority of our citizens (the slack jawed idiots) will be scrambling to get gold (aka: “bling”). THAT’S when I’ll buy a Lotus and I ain’t talking about no pond flower.
 
 
* I would like to thank Don Julio for his always calming input.
Quisp's picture

I have been watching

NUGT for a while. I had my finger on the buy trigger in mid May at $8.30..... and didn't do it. Then it went over $12, and I was kicking myself. I missed a quick 50% (which I would have plowed right into physical). Over the last 3 weeks, I've watched it fall back...... and then fall some more...... then more. Today it closed at $4.55. I've got a buy order in @ $4.25.  fingers crossed....

bucktooth's picture

Alan2102

Are your parents siblings?

Kcap's picture

Lets expunge the stupid and idiocy from the board....

Ready?  (zman, you around for this?)

If....

The PTB didn't care SOOO much about gold and silver, and what the meaning of a rising price MEANT to them and their fiat system, (hint: utter destruction), then they just would have let the prices rise, no?

To zman, and all of the other doubters and trolls...lets just get real right now.

What would have happened if they didn't CRUSH price at $50. in Ag...where would we be today?  Ponder that.  And if you already know that and continue to try and mislead the board, what do you have to say to that?  You see...you'll talk...you'll open your trap, but you'll have wished you didn't because in actuality, there is NOTHING you can say to that.  TPTB stepped in, and with a paper time bomb, sold the living snot out of Ag to crush the momo.  At that point, they continued to do so every time Ag attempted to move north (natural buying).  At that point, others began to say, well, fuck it, we'll just sell too...the manipulators are too strong ("don't fight the Fed")....might as well make money in the other direction.  So, some natural sellers were introduced to the market.  When that happened, then TPTB stepped in started loading up on physical.  That has not stopped to this day.  So, zman and others, yes, there are natural sellers now....but they are as a result of the MASSIVE MANIPULATION of the paper markets to begin with.  TPTB NEEDED these sellers in order to execute their physical buys without distorting/dislocating price to the upside.  So...you see, this has snowballed into what it is today.  And TPTB have two choices.  Lets her rip to zero, all the while picking up their physical buying while ALL of the rest of the longs capitulate.  Or, as we've seen for the past 12 years, they'll let it drop to a point, and then switch the CoT again for a runup.  Your guess is as good as mine.  You can guess where I sit.

Truth.

This is what truth does.  It just has a way of leaking everywhere.  Liars and cheats and frauds always get caught.  Whether in the act they committed the crime in or in another way.  It all balances out.  And its too bad, because they, as liars, cheats and frauds, had so much human potential.  By that I mean, getting as close to pure love as one can get.

Oh well. 

Kcap

Kerbouchard's picture

Another movie quote...

Selina, the cat burglar, speaking to Bruce Wayne, aka, Batman in The Dark Knight Rises:

"You think all this can last?  There's a storm coming, Mr. Wayne.  You and your friends better batten down the hatches, 'cause when it hits, you're all gonna wonder how you ever thought you could live so large and leave so little."

ag1969's picture

Kcap

So last night, I had the rare occasion in my world of sleeplessness.  So, I came here several times and read the comments overnight as well as today.  I just wanted to say that you have been on a roll for almost 24 hrs now.  Your posts are great.  Thanks.

ag1969

Kcap's picture

@ag1969

I only work with what the universe gives me.

Sometimes I let my worldly mind get in the way and I get emotionally sidetracked.  However...at this current moment, I feel the Truth ripping through me from universe and it needs an outlet.  Just playing my part.  I cannot let TPTB win this battle over innocent people on this site and others that believe in Truth and Honesty, who have been doing the right thing their whole lives, who make a stand, only to be fucked over by some liars, frauds and cheats. 
 

Kcap

needadeel's picture

All I want for Christmas is my two Monster Boxes!

 

Found a "buy it now" sealed 2013 monster box on ebay today for 11,500 (free shipping) and many other similar deals around the web. Once it hits 10K, i'm in. I remember drooling at them 20k, tasting them at 15k, but now they are finally within reach.

Lamenting_Laverne_and_the_Scoundrel_Suctioncups's picture

Re We are in a world of deflation and deleveraging

I may have to eat these words one day, but what the hell is he, Richard Russell talking about! 
 
If we are in a world of deflation and deleveraging  - that implies everything! Bonds, Stocks, Derivatives of all colors, Commodities - everything that has been pumped up on credit over the last 40 years. Total banking and monetary system destruction is upon us, if what he says is true (I believe him) and taken to it final destination - but how does that make Gold a bad place to be, when there will be mushroom clouds coming out of most if not all banks as a consequence. When the USTs will never be repaid - how does that make the dollar a continued "safehaven"?. 
 
It doesn't matter if Gold will go to 500$, if it happens in a crash that brings the stocks to 20$ and bonds to 0$ with sovereign defaults and the whole enchilada. I'm blond - and even I can see that! ​What am I missing here? How can he say something so simplistic after having been "informed" for so long? Did someone find a useful piece of information in all those snoops files and put his (other) precious nuggets in an alteration device?
 
Silly goose! Sorry, but that quote just ticks me off - way too thin! The father of news letters is surprised... and "just woke up last night realizing" that a choke full of partially fraudulent paper claims and debt saturated world economy with possible peak-every-thing-real and mark-to-fantasy accounting is going to delever and deflate, when the black rooster comes home. Wow! Quelle surprise! 
 
@ csquared13 and Eric Original - Thanks for the kind words earlier and Spartacus - thanks for the updated GDP chart.
valvend's picture

Interesting article by Axel Merk "Why I Own Gold"

I subscribe to Axel Merk's newsletter at Merk Investments.com    He runs several currency funds.  He wrote an interesting article "Why I own Gold".

After detailing all the potential risks for financial disaster he pretty well sums it up by saying  

"To me, it’s not even about whether I will be right. It’s about the risk of being right. As I believe there’s a risk that some of these scenarios unfold, I own gold."

I believe that is a pretty good reason to own precious metals as a part of risk management even if the worse doesn't come to pass. 

Here is the link    http://www.merkinvestments.com/insights/2013/2013-06-26.php?registered=yes?utm_source=cc_newsletter&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=2013-06-26-Insights

foggyroad's picture

no comment

nothing to see here, not a nut job in site!

zman's picture

@keap

First of all, I agree with basically everything you just wrote. You bring up some very interesting points, I think we all can understand the significance of the TPTB maintaining tame PM prices in this current environment..

The thing I think about is the move in silver from $17-$49 oz in very short order, what caused this move?  

1. Was it the physical market causing pressure into the paper market?  Not sure, but I don't think physical shortages were occurring at all during that time period.

2. Paper longs were driving the price higher?  I think the data suggest this was true, but for some reason no one had a problem with the paper market, many suggest speculation was creating the massive price gains.

3. Paper shorts were covering?   I think the data would suggest that short covering was a part of the move higher.

The "big boys" came in and fired the heavy ammo and shorted the hell out of the market, and here we are today.   I guess the question remains, what caused the big move?   Paper traders (I don't consider them silver investors) or physical buyers?

Is buying a long silver futures contract a silver investor?   In theoretical land the answer is yes, in the real world, no.    Should I get upset that a long silver futures contract gets off set with a short contract?   No, it's all theoretical any ways.  So, at the end of the day, I believe that physical will win over paper, I don't think that makes me a troll, just a realistic silver investor!!

10th Amendment Powers's picture

New Chart

Three ratios to think about.  I've got more on this in the other thread right now.

10th Amendment Powers's picture

New Chart

Double post by mistake.

Syndicate contentComments for "Time For A Break"