Tapering Turds

Maybe "Hampton Pearson at The Labor Department" will shoot me down and make me look foolish (again) but all signs point to a weak NFP tomorrow.

I just thought I would post this before heading out. There continues to be all this market talk about "Fed tapering". We've covered this fallacy ad nauseam so there's no need to do it again, especially when The Pig is telling you all you need to know.

First, here's a daily chart of the POSX. If The Bernank was really going to constrict the future supply of dollars by tapering QE, the POSX should be rallying simply because nearly every other fiat currency is being rapidly devalued. Ahem...note the action in the POSX since The Bernank spoke to Congress two weeks ago.

But though today's drop was staggering, it doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things. Note that on these two longer-term charts, the key level to watch is 80. Admittedly, an horrific NFP tomorrow and we might be there by Monday. But, for now, today was just noise. One bright spot: It doesn't look like we'll be seeing a return to 88 anytime soon.

And why does this matter?

Again, it's all about the flow of funds. A weak Pig will help to drive the entire "commodity" sector higher. (http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4733/ebb-and-flow-funds) Soon, a fire will be re-lit under the metals and the historically large Spec short position will be forced to cover. A falling dollar along with the attendant higher commodity prices will only exacerbate the pain for the shorts.

So, hang in there. Regardless of whether old Hampton breathlessly exclaims "UP 88,000" or "UP 288,000" tomorrow morning, QE∞ is going to continue unabated. No amount of SPIN or Fed Goon posturing is going to change that. This fact WILL, eventually, be realized by the paper metals markets. It's simply a matter WHEN.

More in the morning.

TF

160 Comments

agrock's picture

first

first

proformatrillionaire's picture

missed it...

by that much,

Agent 86

OC15's picture

Thurd!

Yes!

bunnytoujours's picture

first couldnt resist

first couldnt resist ok not 

Swineflogger's picture

OMG! Turd!

I mean third!!!

Rat Puke! Fifth

SE's picture

Fourth!

Fourth! Damn, sixth!

chauck70's picture

Top 5...ok Top 7

Sweet! Still Sweet. 

Daedalus Mugged's picture

Tapering

I am amazed at how much weight people give to a decrease in the rate of growth of the money supply.  Tapering is printing less than $85B a month, but still printing massive dollar distorting and destroying sums. 

Cry Me A River's picture

Now That We Know Eric Holder Won't Step Down...

That Rumor That Holder Was Running As Vice Mayor Of New York Is Probably False And These Won't Be Needed:

May 30, 2013

Will Anthony Weiner Be New York’s Next Mayor?

zman's picture

Something tells me the jobs

Something tells me the jobs report will be "acceptable" to the markets, and the PM's will get a good old fashioned smack down.

We know the numbers are bunk, so why should it surprise us when the numbers won't reflect the real economy?  

These are their economic statistics, these are their markets,  they are buying time as always, nuff said.

Vernon Wormer's picture

Thanks

Thank you for all you do. Keep up the good work.

The Watchman's picture

GLD Continues to be DRAINED-2.71 Tonnes Gone

Tonnes 1,007.74

Ounces 32,399,917.19

Value US $45,336,447,930.04

murphy's picture

H'mmmm

Let me be the first to say I don't know jack shit about how the Fed buys either $45 or $85 billion of MBS every month. With all we know how they lied about AIG, MFG, Libor, CDS, Interest rate swaps and now the CME disclaimer, what makes you think they are doing what they say?

How is it that the Russians, Chinese, Indians, various 'Stans, Mexico, Pakistan, Vietnam and others are all buying gold and we (London/NY) are the only ones selling in order to keep the dollar a float?

Who's to say they're not buying $10 billion a month as well? Or is my hat on to tight?

Conspiracy theorists of the world, believers in the hidden hands of the Rothschilds and the Masons and the Illuminati, we skeptics owe you an apology. You were right. The players may be a little different, but your basic premise is correct: The world is a rigged game. We found this out in recent months, when a series of related corruption stories spilled out of the financial sector, suggesting the world's largest banks may be fixing the prices of, well, just about everything

You may have heard of the Libor scandal, in which at least three – and perhaps as many as 16 – of the name-brand too-big-to-fail banks have been manipulating global interest rates, in the process messing around with the prices of upward of $500 trillion (that's trillion, with a "t") worth of financial instruments. When that sprawling con burst into public view last year, it was easily the biggest financial scandal in history – MIT professor Andrew Lo even said it "dwarfs by orders of magnitude any financial scam in the history of markets."

That was bad enough, but now Libor may have a twin brother. Word has leaked out that the London-based firm ICAP, the world's largest broker of interest-rate swaps, is being investigated by American authorities for behavior that sounds eerily reminiscent of the Libor mess. Regulators are looking into whether or not a small group of brokers at ICAP may have worked with up to 15 of the world's largest banks to manipulate ISDAfix, a benchmark number used around the world to calculate the prices of interest-rate swaps.

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/everything-is-rigged-the-biggest-financial-scandal-yet-20130425#ixzz2RZTGBVbu

edit @ Dean Wormer- nice to see you

Kcap's picture

Agree w/Turd

It would be very "unexpected" to have a massive miss tomorrow.

Enough said.

Kcap

treefrog's picture

a nice, wet, tropical b.j.

tropical storm andrea has come and gone. a lot of badly needed rain, and little or no injuries nor property damage - at least i haven't heard of anything serious. come back anytime andrea, you're my kind of girl.

Bollocks's picture

Yes

QE cannot end.

Dr Jerome's picture

A speech can be a tough thing

This corporate spokesman is trying to persuade this audience to approve allowing the timber industry on their homeland. The only tougher audience I can imagine is Ben Bernanke speaking at the annual GATA convention.

Spartacus Rex's picture

Rock BEATS Paper!

When all of Warren Buffet's & Wall St.'s paper goes up in Smoke, Those who faithfully stacked barbarous relics will have the last laugh!

Xty's picture

murphy re brokers working with banks to manipulate rates

I really don't know what you have been drinking lately, but it is high time, and I choose my words carefully, that you attended re-education camp.  They talk on the phone about sports and their kids, you know how it is.  Like when they golf.  I am drinking through rose-coloured glasses now, and they are awesome.  Much happier.

dropout's picture

Moving Quicker, Getting Hotter

Austria has just announced that its pulling it's 380 member strong UN peace keeping force out of the Golan Heights. During the past few days the fighting around the border crossing area of Quneitra, has escalated with some shells from an artillry bombardment landing in the UN camp.

Israel is in the process of beefing up it's military force on the Golan.

The US 1,000 member strong marine force is making its way north through Jordan towards the Syrian/Jordanian border.

The Russians are moving their only carrier into the eastern Mediterenean, to add to their already sizeable fleet off the Syrian coast.

Syria has taken delivery of the sophisticated Russian S-300 surface to air missile system.

Spartacus Rex's picture

Bullion Demand Still Unprecedented

“Bullion demand still at unprecedented levels.” Yes, demand from the U.S. Mint (and every other mint and refiner) was very strong going into April. We all know what happened then and have watched as global demand has soared because the “price was too low.” Of course, if you listen to Bloomberg or CNBC they will tell you that gold has been sold off because it’s “just not safe anymore.” It’s in a bear market, only barbarians would invest in it and the smart money has already panicked out…as should you too.

But here is a quote from acting director of the U.S. Mint, Richard Peterson:

Demand right now is unprecedented. We are buying all the coin (blanks) they can make.

-Reuters.com, June 5, 2013

Hold on now…let’s take a look at this quote a little closer. “We are buying all the coin blanks they can make?” Really? So if they are buying every blank that can get their hands on…then why have there been shortages this year? Why has the mint had to suspend sales several times? “Buying every blank that they could get their hands on”…Was apparently not enough?

Actually, a better question would be, “If demand is so great and the U.S. Mint is buying every single blank that they can, then how is it possible that the price went down? Not just down mind you, down as in a ‘panic “down?” I’d like to remind you (and preface what I am about to say) that the “law” here in the U.S. is that the mint MUST buy as much silver and as much gold as necessary to meet demand and this supply must come from U.S. mines. Now, I seem to remember that for the first quarter alone, the mint sold as many (I think actually 1,000 ounces more) Silver Eagles as all tallied silver production that came out of the ground from U.S. mines. So in plain English, the mint sold more Eagles than the mines produced metal in the 1st quarter.

Now, not to disparage Americans but the Chinese and Indian population make us look like absolute “pikers” when it comes to buying gold and silver. In fact, it looks like China and India are so far this year (and we don’t even have numbers yet for April or May when the demand really exploded) likely to consume MORE THAN 80% of the entire world’s production, where is the metal coming from? COMEX? LBMA? Ah yes, GLD! I would say as an off the cuff comment, once the “bleeding” stops and GLD doesn’t report much more in the way of “deliveries” the barrel will be dry. I say this because once the deliveries stop, my guess is that what they have left in “inventory” will be of the “flammable” type. “Gold” as in receipts and paper promises.

As I wrote yesterday, “If you are truly listening” you can hear what they are telling you. Here is the director of the U.S. Mint telling you that they cannot buy enough blanks to keep up with demand. This tells you a couple of things.

1. Supply and demand are out of balance.

2. It also should tell you that IF you can get your hands on what is of short supply…you are getting it at a price that the market deems to be too low.

LISTEN and analyze what is coming out of the “official mouths” all over the world, if you listen carefully, they are telling you the truth to cover their sorry butts when this thing blows up. Like I said yesterday, they will throw their arms up in the air and say, “We tried to tell you.” Author : Bill Holter
Published: June 6th, 2013

dropout's picture

Tapering

J.F.Y.I.
Stools are tapered so that the sphincter muscle does not 'slam' shut, causing pain and distress!

With all the Fed jawboning about tapering, "Turds" are the only tapered "tapering" we will see!

lostinspace's picture

I learned

a lesson about Barrett .50 muzzle blast last weekend :)

El Gordo's picture

How smart are those guys...

...walking back and forth in front of the barrel of that weapon. Good grief.

foggyroad's picture

Drone that Phone

drone

noun

a low continuous humming sound: he nodded off to the drone of the car engine.

• informal a monotonous speech: only twenty minutes of the hour-long drone had passed.

• a continuous musical note, typically of low pitch.

• a musical instrument, or part of one, sounding such a continuous note, in particular (also drone pipe) a pipe in a bagpipe or (also drone string) a string in an instrument such as a hurdy-gurdy or a sitar.

a male bee in a colony of social bees, which does no work but can fertilize a queen.

• a person who does no useful work and lives off others.

a remote-controlled pilotless aircraft or missile.

Drones, NSA spying on US citizens, TSA grope fest, IRS targeting/ intimidation, whistle blower protection? Banker theft/fraud, Double standard Law enforcement, what exactly do the bad guys want to do, that the supposed good guys haven't already done?

reefman's picture

Mining shares are at a critical point.

Paper investors (in the mining shares) need to watch the trading in the next few days. Put stop losses in case we get a violent move (could be in either direction - but the last three times the mining index touched the 50 daily moving average there was a SHARP SELL-OFF IMMEDIATELY. Today the mining index was three cents away from touching the 50 dma, so it is entirely possible that this is a bull trap). Also if you look at the MACD while it is still trending up, the momentum has leveled off - meaning there is no upward momentum. In addition, if you look at the ULT indicator it is very close to "70" (meaning overbought), and it has been rising even though the share price has remained relatively flat lately. All of these signal EXTREME CAUTION. 

(Many people on this site are permabulls and they got BURNED. Turd even released a youtube video of him eating his hat. Smart investors see the charts and let the charts tell them what to do and avoid getting burned so badly). 

Here is the chart. Notice the price action every time it touches the 50 dma. Early November, December 31, mid January. What happens next? We have payroll numbers tomorrow.... it *could* break either way, but it is more likely to break DOWN than UP:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p75794215778

PS: Someone on a previous thread posted a detailed technical analysis of DUST (triple bear mining ETF). I do not think it is wise for anyone to do technical analysis of levered ETF's because there is very strong decay on a daily basis which causes price action and indicators to show false or at the best misleading information. 

Xty's picture

Sometimes you need to recognize that your name is a problem

I thought New York already had a wiener for mayor ...

foggyroad's picture

LOL

Bloomberg is a piece of work, so in touch with the common man an all.

¤'s picture

Caption Contest

Everyone thinking in unison...

"Boy, his shrunken head would look great in front of my hut."

Sorry Doc...couldn't resist blush

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