FUTF Tuesday

The new week begins with some pretty volatile trading.

Last night, I suggested that The London Monkeys would likely raid gold and silver at their usual appointed hour today. Sadly, they didn't disappoint and price fell back some $20 in the American wee hours of Tuesday. Then, just when all looked lousy after the Comex open, prices shot higher and the June13 actually had the audacity to briefly trade above $1400, reaching a high of $1400.80. At that point, The Monkeys struck back and painted a lousy-looking FUTF on the charts. Nuts.

Oh, well. At least we now know where we stand. Ole Louis Braille himself would be able to see the clear capping effort now being made at $1400. The stage has now been set for this week's battle. We'll have to wait to see who wins but we should have some indications by Friday, at the latest.

Two, main news items today that you might have missed. First, Jim Willie mentioned last week that King Abdullah of Saudi was "basically dead". Looks like he was right. (http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2013/05/26/305584/saudi-arabias-king-clinically-dead/) Now lets see what happens next to:

  1. The price of crude
  2. The political stability of Saudi Arabia
  3. Overall tension level of the MENA
  4. the future of the petro-dollar

And do you recall this story from two weeks ago? This: http://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2013/05/14/why-has-1-billion-in-gold-been-shipped-from-new-york-to-south-africa/ was sourced from this: http://qz.com/83396/1-billion-of-gold-has-been-shipped-from-new-york-to-south-africa-this-year/. Earlier today, Santa himself issued a public comment on this. Take it fwiw:

Jim,
I wonder how much longer these criminals will play this gold paper game.
David
David,
That question will be answered by the condition of the Comex warehouse as they will change delivery to cash or GLD, in my opinion within 90 days, if the decline of the Comex warehouse gold stock continues. It has been confirmed that the large shipment of gold from the USA to RSA was not scrap as first reported, but Comex 100 ounce gold bars to be melted and cast as Chinese small denominations then shipped to China.
Jim

Shipped to China and recast into smaller denominations? Gee, where have we heard that before?? http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3924/gonefor-good

Speaking of being "gone", the GLD dropped another 22 1/4 metric tonnes of gold last week, dropping its stated "inventory" down to 1016.16 mts. Again, for those doing the math at home...22.25 mts is 715,354 troy ounces. That's approximately 1,788 London good delivery bars or, roughly, 9.5 of these:

Also of interest for those keeping score at home, The Comex reported on Friday that total registered gold is now down to just 1,641,000 ounces or about 51 metric tonnes. That is only enough registered gold to physically settle 16,410 contracts. Recall that Feb and April gold both saw about 13,000 contracts stand for delivery so it won't take much of an increase in June to deplete the entire stated inventory.

We just received the OI number for Friday so, with four days left to go before First Notice Day, the total OI for the June 13 stands at 125,684 of a total OI of 435,106. If you're wondering, with four days to go before February FND, the total OI for the Feb13 was 148,517 out of a total OI of 458,197 and, as we approached FND for the April, Apr13 OI with four days to go was 121,902 out of a total OI at 438,833.

Here's where this will get interesting in June. For Feb, over 13,000 contracts stood for delivery but very few were added during the delivery period. However, in April, just 6,601 stood on FND but an amount nearly equal to that number showed up during the month of April, put up their 100% margin and "jumped the queue". Based on Friday's numbers, it looks like maybe 10,000 or so will stand on Friday. What happens next will tell the tale. If, like April, 6,000+ show up during June to queue-jump, the registered inventory at The Comex will be drained. Rest assured, I'll be watching this very closely.

Finally, there were some great conversations here over the weekend but a couple of comments merit your attention as they may have slipped past you. First, this great summary of the current situation from "Icarus": http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/316025#comment-316025

And "Lamenting Laverne" posted two fascinating items into the Jim Willie thread. Please read them both and then ponder whether or not Laverne is onto something.

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/315773#comment-315773

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/315812#comment-315812

Ok, I'm going to stop here for now. Sorry for the delay in getting today's post up but I have been sending out emails all day trying to connect raffle donors with raffle winners. I should be back to a normal "schedule" tomorrow.

TF

177 Comments

Iceberg Slim's picture

1st

my first, FIRST?!

dc1's picture

Good News!

and second?

Excerpt from May 28th interview (found on Santa's site):

"David Gurwitz: ... When the gold price gets to the bottom – which we think is coming relatively soon – they're going to sell out and we think there's going to be a great opportunity.
 
HAI: And what price would that be?
 
David Gurwitz: High $1300s is what we're looking at. ... Gold is going to go up, based on our cycles, based on our forecasts. Silver same..." 
 
You'll want to read this entire interview from today! A definite "pick me up"!! 
 
Down Range's picture

Top Ten

This is for all the haters out there  kiss

Hagarth's picture

Fitfh!!1

Ohh so escitied!!!1

dc1's picture

Merriman

For those who are interested in the astrological aspects of finance, you might find this of interest. This guy has a very good track record, even to calling six months ago the problems Obama is now facing with all the scandals. He's also, much to my chagrin at times when I didn't want to hear it, been very accurate with the metals. He posts a free Review/Preview of the coming week and then there's his paid ($$$) version.

Silver sold off sharply in overseas trading, falling to a new multi-year low of 2025. Gold also fell sharply, to a low of 1336, but that was above its panic low of April 16, which was down to 1321.50.  By Wednesday, May 22, Silver had rallied 15% to 2329 and Gold recovered to 1413. This created a case of intermarket bullish divergence, within a geocosmic critical reversal zone. Now we wait and see if it holds, and if both metals will start a new leg up of their bull market that originated with the double bottom low of August 1999 and April 2001 at 250/ounce. It remains my belief that commodities – and especially precious metals - will continue their bull market throughout most of the period that Saturn and Pluto are in the waning phase of their cycle (from opposition in 2001 through the conjunction in 2020).

Complete MMA weekly article here: 
http://www.mmacycles.com/weekly-preview/mma-comments-for-the-week/mma-comments-for-the-week-beginning-may-27,-2013/

 
Wizard's picture

Fake Silver Flooding Market

Be careful out there

Turd Ferguson's picture

And this chart is DEFINITELY

MODERATOR

And this chart is DEFINITELY worth watching. 128-130 is very important support.

Howard Roark's picture

Bumpy ride

The week promises highs and lows.

Got a helmet?

Sure we have!

Salut,

HR

Turd Ferguson's picture

Jake Blues

MODERATOR

JakeBlues, if you're reading this, please repost that chart you have of silver price vs the 10-year note yield.

Thanks!

dumpster's picture

astrology

a large leaf thrown in the wind has worked for me

or counting the bumps on a cadavers head

thesandbox's picture

so as not to just become lost "resting" in the last thread...

and to be on topic and relevant....I think we are all in the same skit with GLD/SLV the Parrot and the pet shop the CFTC/Comex ;)

dropout's picture

On Topic

Of wheres the gold?

Using the Census Bureau export facts from 1991 to 2012 of gold.

Net gold exports 5,504 tonnes

US mine supply and recycling 7,532 tonnes

Gold demand was 6,517 tonnes

That leaves only 1,015 tonnes for export

Where did the other 4,489 tonnes come from?

gold slut's picture

I can just see it now...

All this talk of the Comex running out of phyz.  I can see everyone counting down until the figure reaches zero and they just keep going, and going, and going.

Anyone who thinks that any figures given out by TPTB are anything to do with reality are sadly mistaken.  If the Comex gold situation was as we think, they would not be so relaxed about things.  They don't give up the power to make money that easily.  But then WTFDIK.

Spartacus Rex's picture

So, Will There Ever Be An Audit of Ft. Knox?

Or has it too, been replaced with gold plated tungsten?

thesandbox's picture

did someone say "audit" ;)

Mr. Fix's picture

Where is the gold?

Unfortunately, there are certain mysteries of life that we will never know the answer to.

I speculate that Fort Knox is being closely guarded for the sole purpose of protecting the secret that it is empty.

As for all of those shipments abroad that come from mysterious origin, there is your  gold  plated tungsten bars.

is this is why China has instituted a new policy of having all deliveries melted down and recast.

You can't fool them twice.

Iceberg Slim's picture

Silver Maples Ring Test? - Does it work for 9999 Silver?

Per the Fake Silver video from Mike Maloney that was posted above, just for kicks I did the ping/ring test on a couple ASE's and Silver Maples of mine.

The ASE's all passed fine with the clear sustained ping/ring as was demonstrated in the video..

HOWEVER for Silver Maples the ring was fairly dull and short, with hardly much sustainability. I tested these on brand new 2013 Silver Maples i received from Gainesville just a week or two ago, also did the ring test on a couple Silver Maples I've bough from a LCS. same thing happened with those. my heart dropped a bit, but I am pretty certain these are still 100% genuine. Is it because they are 9999 Silver that the ring/ping test does not work on Silver Maples? In the video they did mention this to be the case with 9999 gold, but didn't mention if it was the same deal for 9999 Silver.

Looking at the coins they appear absolutely genuine, no flaws or signs of forgery that I can see, I also weighted about 30 of them, all of them were 1 troy oz on the money, and all of them passed the magnet test. I guess I'm just being overly paranoid here but if anyone has any further clarification that the ping/ring test does not work with 9999 silver that would be appreciated not only for me but for everyone else out there wondering.

thesandbox's picture

Syria....

first this bit of sneaking around...

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/05/27/mccain-sneaks-across-border-visits-syrian-rebels/

Arizona Sen. John McCain slipped into Syria for a meeting Monday with Syrian rebels, Fox News confirms.

The GOP lawmaker is one of Congress’ strongest advocates for increasing America’s role in Syria and became the highest ranking U.S. official to visit the country since civil war broke out there more than two years ago.

McCain crossed the Turkey-Syria border with Gen. Salem Idris, the leader of the Supreme Military Council of the Free Syrian Army, The Daily Beast first reported. McCain met with rebel leaders who called on the U.S. to up its support by providing weapons, a no-fly zone and air strikes on President Bashar al-Assad backers.

surely has nothing to do with this....

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-28/syria-goes-hot-russia-deliver-weapons-deploys-air-defense-israel-warns-russia-obama-

This lead Israel's defense minister Moshe Yaalon to immediately signal that "its military is prepared to strike shipments of advanced Russian weapons to Syria."

Meanwhile back in the US "the White House has asked the Pentagon to draw up plans for a no-fly zone inside Syria that would be enforced by the U.S. and other countries such as France and Great Britain, two administration officials told The Daily Beast."

Hammer's picture

Kuroda opens his gob in a few

Kuroda opens his gob in a few hour and speaks on ‘The Financial Crisis and the International Financial System" and he is on home turf at The Bank of Japan.

Ooooooh, I can't wait. Wonder how markets will react when Kuroda rolls out his cheese ? lol

Check out the ninja at 2-16 ;) Kuroda chan................

Gold Dog's picture

PRIZES!!!

I need PMs of shipping info from;

CalLawyer

Tim T.

Occasional Traveler

For all the others who have contacted me. I will get your stuff out to you at my normal pace.

Your friend,

Dog

The Watchman's picture

GLD Continues to be DRAINED-3.91 Tonnes Gone

Tonnes1,012.25

Ounces32,544,916.00

Value US$44,779,128,250.53

dropout's picture

The MSM & the B.S. Just Gets Deeper!

The sheer amount of gold and silver bashing is astounding!

ZH has an article showing the India Times versus Bloomberg about gold. They 180 degrees different! As ZH put it, "but then what do the Indian's know of their gold market?" We here recognize this B.S. for what it is, but unfortunately the uninitiated/uneducated won't.

What is the "gold price"? It's the price you pay for a futures contract, or a share of GLD.

The "price of gold" is what you pay to own and hold an ounce of physical gold.

The "gold price" is disconnecting from the "price of gold." Just look at the size of the premium being charged by the US Mint no less, for the 1/10 th ounce gold coin! At $195.00 each, that means the mint is pricing an ounce of the physical at $1,950.00 versus the "gold price" of $1,380.00! A difference of...  you do the math! 

DirkDirkler's picture

Of the contracts standing at

Of the contracts standing at first day notice, 90+% are still settled in paper. Most of them are exchanged to various forms of ETF shares. What Jim Sinclair is projecting is already in practice for years, and it's no secret either, the data on this is open.

Gold Dog's picture

Pining4theFjords

Reports that his ankle surgery went smoothly and he is sitting around ripped and drooling on himself, so no evident change!

Bullshit aside, that's great news my friend!

Dog

The Springbok's picture

4 days left

Hi Turd,

what about the 1000+ contracts that still need to be settled from May contract before the June contract comes into play....this is really becoming an interesting few months in the delivery rooms :-)

Swineflogger's picture

@thesandbox - OMG!

The parrot was "Pining for the Fjords"!  Unreal.  Does Pining know about this?

Spartacus Rex's picture

Gold Cycle Bottoming Soon - 28 May 2013

                      This cycles specialist can't say why, but he does believe a cyclical low in gold is near...
DAVID GURWITZ is managing director of Charles Nenner Research. Providing global macro research to a broad class of clients across the world, and increasingly to family offices, over the last decade, Gurwitz specialized in cycles analysis, looking for patterns in where prices turn.
Here Gurwitz speaks to Hard Assets Investor about his analysis of financial cycles, plus the outlook for gold in particular.
Hard Assets Investor: You guys made a terrific call in gold a couple of years ago when your research, and the algorithms that you used, called the top at $1900. So I'm very curious to hear what you have to say about gold now, as well as some of these other markets.
David Gurwitz: First let me tell you how it works. Gold happens to be a specific category that fits in with everything else.
Cycles come from the Greek word "circle". And what we do is we take any data series and find basically repeating top-to-tops. I'll give you an example. In baseball, to hit for the cycle, you have to have a single, double, triple and homer. People think of the nine-year cycle.
If you find a top in gold every five weeks – forget the price – a top every nine weeks, top every 14, top every 37, you have, in effect, a lot of sine curves. When they're all topping, we don't know why. We don't know why things happen. When they're all topping, we just assume that's a top. And they were all topping at $1900.
HAI: You probably know there's a book, Fooled by Randomness. Sometimes we can look at things, and they kind of look like there are discernible patterns there, when in fact what it really is, is randomness. But we perceive it as some sort of regularity. Can you be fooled by this phenomenon? Because if we knew precisely that cycles occur at a specific moment, somebody who knew that would own the world in a month. It would be so easy to make money.
David Gurwitz: Right. There's another book, called Chaos, which basically says there's not randomness, that in fact it is predictable. There's patterns within chaos; it's the other side. Let me tell you what Einstein says about relativity: "When a man sits at a radiator for a minute, it feels like an hour. When a man sits with a woman for an hour, it feels like a minute." That's relativity.
HAI: Well, we're getting too deep for this show...
David Gurwitz: So anyway, we don't believe it's random. We don't agree with that premise, so therefore we believe that you can find patterns. And we call the top an apple. Natural gas – what came first, the cycle top or what I'm about to tell you?
The banks in Canada lent money to the nat gas producers when that gas was $6 not long ago. We had said that nat gas was going to a $1.70 after $5, $4.50, $4. All of a sudden those loans – like a lot of people's houses, with the mortgages under water – bank loans are under water too to companies. They started pressuring the nat gas companies to sell to pay back the loans. They started selling, price goes to $3, $2.10. It got to $1.90.
What came first, the cycle top or the actions to the banks? We think the new shows all say banks forcing producers to sell. We think it was the cycle top that said it. There's a cycle bottom coming in gold very shortly. We've had seven up years with gold.
HAI: But it doesn't necessarily tell you the price or the proximity of the price. It just tells you, here's a time window where we're going to hit a bottom.
David Gurwitz: We also do price too. Take football. You know the quarterback goes 1-2-3-4 and he throws. Same with us. Cycles just give you direction. Target algorithm, which is based on rocket science, believe it or not, and quantum physics...it does get very deep, gives you level. And so we look for timing, level and direction. And when they don't all line up, we will stay out, which is something most people have a hard time doing. So they're in pain staying in the gold trade. Now as you probably know, a lot of people are sitting now crying...and they're probably going to sell.
HAI: Not if they're short.
David Gurwitz: Not if they're short, which is also mostly not so easy to do. When the gold price gets to the bottom – which we think is coming relatively soon – they're going to sell out and we think there's going to be a great opportunity.
HAI: And what price would that be?
David Gurwitz: High $1300s is what we're looking at.
HAI: So the recent sell-off that brought us into the mid-to-low $1300s, it was like a capitulation.
David Gurwitz: Almost. We'll retest that level probably, because we want everything to line up. The cycle, the target and the other things we look at. Also there's a triple top forming in the Euro right now. Again, I won't go through the details. This is the stuff we do. We're a little technical, but we think the technicals are in fact fundamental.
HAI: We've had this rally in gold now for basically 10, 11 years since 2001. I guess you're saying it's coming near the end of this correction. It would suggest from what you're saying we're in the next leg of this long-term bull market?
David Gurwitz: Yes. But you can't extrapolate from that our macro view of commodities in general. Everything's different. Gold is going to go up, based on our cycles, based on our forecasts. Silver same, but copper is down. We got out of copper six, eight months ago. We have a lot of sovereign wealth fund clients. They don't want to trade next week, next month. They want to know four years from now. So copper's down, which indicates something about not such a great economy.
Nat gas, which went from $6 to close to $1.70, is now in the low $4 range, and very shortly we think we're going to short it again back to its low. But grains we think are bottoming in several months. And there's going to be a rally.
People say stocks and bonds always go in opposite directions. If you bought stocks and bonds in 1981, it was both a great trade. They both went up. If you bought them both in 2000, bonds have done well, but stocks are flat from 2000. If you bought them from 2007, bonds have done well, but stocks haven't. So you can't just say A implies B.
HAI: Let's talk about equities – the Dow making a new historic high, the S&P at a new historic high. But a lot of people are saying this doesn't add up. Because the economy is not that strong. We still have high unemployment.
David Gurwitz: Long term, we see stocks going down for the next seven years over 60%.
HAI: Based on what?
David Gurwitz: Cycles. That's all we know. 
HAI: Well, how did it work in 2007/2008...?
David Gurwitz: We took everyone out in the summer of 2008. 
HAI: That was right before the Lehman crisis.
David Gurwitz: Right before. We don't know what's going to be the cause. The reason shows up afterwards, after the cycle is set.
HAI: So you really didn't get the top in that one.
David Gurwitz: We got out. Prior, when the Dow went from 1008 to 1405, we called that on CNBC; it's on our site. We went back in and got out in the summer of 2008. It was not a front end of 2008, as you can remember. We went long the beginning of 2009, more or less until now.
HAI: Again, based on the cycle?
David Gurwitz: Only based on the cycle; we admit we don't know anything else. How often do people come on and say we don't know? We're brutally honest. So stocks are topping. They're going to go straight down.
HAI: Is there a signal, a sell point?
David Gurwitz: Yes. People should go right to our site and get the research, because the answer is, we're monitoring it and we're very close to a top now. It's also been a top in 2000/2007/2013. Now it's much weaker than it was in 2000.
HAI: Now, many people for so long have been saying it's a bubble, yet bonds have been very, very strong.
David Gurwitz: There was a high 30 years ago in rates. Sixty years ago it was low. The US government was actually selling, as opposed to buying, savings bonds 2.5 percent in 1950. In 1920 rates were high, 1918/19 rates were low, 1860 the Civil War rates were high. So the next 30 years, you're going to see increasing rates.
Starting this summer, there's going to be one more rally. Same thing: cycles. So bonds are going to be a great short for the next two decades starting this summer.
HAI: I don't know about that one. But very interesting stuff. David Gurwitz, thank you very much.
Hard Assets Investor, 28 May '13
 
thesandbox's picture

The Scotish forget about Freedom....

Having lived a better part of two years in Glasgow while flying for Thomas Cook in 2005 and 2007 Scotland became one of my best experiences ever.....sadly I thought the people there still had a bit more fight left in them.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/stuart-walton-care-plan-sees-dystopian-future-arriving-early-1-2922270

"...last week the Scottish Government’s plan to give every child a state guardian from birth was launched. This state-appointed overseer will be a specific, named individual, and every child will have one, from birth. The responsibility for creating this named guardian will fall on the heads of the health boards for the first five years of a child’s life, before being transferred to councils.....

It is arguable to what extent “every child” can really be protected by our new guardians, or indeed that these named professionals will take seriously the need to keep an eye on “nice” families. However, as the meaning of abuse and harm expands to include things like being bullied, or even being shouted at, the potential for professional intervention into family life is growing......

In Dundee, where I live, I hear of cases where children are instructed to tell their parents that the school doesn’t approve of the contents of the parent-provided lunchbox. Elsewhere, we hear of teachers reporting parents to social services for allowing their children to “risk” cycling to school. And just about everywhere we have children being encouraged to tell their own parents off for smoking or drinking at home.....

Today it is assumed parenting is simply too hard, children are simply too vulnerable and risks are simply too great to allow for this luxury called “privacy”. This is why nobody is attacking this new bill in defence of privacy and the autonomous family."

Coming to a country near you.

Orange's picture

South Africa

Well, talking about South Africa, they do have a sense of humor. I was looking up a good recipe for a hamburger, strange why call it a hamburger when I actually have grass fed beef. i.e beef burger

In any case I came across this video for those of you who need a laugh. Fair warning, for those that like humor, have a tissue ready tears will result.

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