One Final Washout?

Maybe. At the same time, it looks like we might have finally found a decent floor, too. Could both be true? Definitely.

While I very much like the action since the brutal selloff of Sunday evening, I still feel that there may be one more spike down coming. This post is not intended to be a have-it-both-ways, Maund-esque soliloquy. It is instead a warning, designed not just to mentally prepare you for additional volatility but also to give you confidence that we are finally very near The Bottom. No sense dicking around here. Let's get straight to the point.

The Sunday Night Plunge and Monday Rebound shows us a lot about where we are in the grand scheme of things. As you know, The Cartel Banks have been rigging paper metal price lower since the announcement of QE∞ last September. In doing so, they've been able to reduce their potential Comex liability by about 70%. However, as paper price fell, physical demand increased, to the point where the blatant drop through $1525 had to be initiated in order to create the picture of despair that has led to 127 metric tonnes of gold withdrawal from the GLD since 4/12/13.

But like pressing on a spring gets more challenging with effort, paper price finally appears to have reached a point where further weakness will only create an untenable situation for physical delivery. The daily chart of gold clearly shows tremendous demand for paper and physical each time the price dips below $1350. Therefore, this is likely The Bottom.

However, we're dealing with corrupt, evil and greedy bankers along with soulless and greedy hedge fund/money managers. Having seen how quickly the price of silver fell Sunday evening once it broke the lows of 4/15, these goons must be salivating at the thought of breaking the $1320 gold lows, also set back on April 15. If they can pull this off...and that's a big IF considering the demand apparent at $1350...gold could drop sharply below $1300 and down toward the $1280-90 area I've identified as an important Fib retracement level. And IF they are able to do that, all sorts of secondary technical indicators will once again flash the extreme oversold signals that we saw last month.

Therefore, putting it all together, I truly think we are FINALLY very near The Bottom. Of course, this is from the same guy who thought that $1525 and $26 would hold AND, if those levels failed, the spike lower would only be temporary...not 6 weeks and counting. But I'm begging you to please consider these four items:

  • Continued reports of extreme physical demand in size at these "discounted" prices.
  • Greatly oversold conditions on the daily and weekly charts (see below).
  • An extreme CoT structure that shows The Banks well-positioned to fleece The Spec Shorts.
  • Andy's report yesterday that he now believes The Banks are finally NET LONG.

Here are the charts mentioned above. These are daily and weekly charts that also include RSI and MACD measurements. For a quick reminder of what these are, click here: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rsi.asp and here: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/macd.asp

RSI

MACD

OK, I'm going to stop here because it's getting pretty late so I'd better get this posted. As I close, I see that the metals have rebounded nicely from their morning lows and this is very encouraging. However, tomorrow is going to be a MAJOR headline-gaming day with the FOMC minutes and The Bernank in front of Congress. Just be patient and let's see what happens from here before getting too excited.

TF

p.s. Lots of excitement over the Riff-Raffle but there is still plenty of opportunity to win. We've only sold about 300 tickets so far so your odds are still fairly good. Also, we will ship prizes anywhere in the world so don't think your ineligible if you don't live in the U.S.. Turdville is a global village so please feel free to participate from wherever you are on Planet Earth.

305 Comments

PeterLemonJello's picture

Boom!

Keep stacking, just keep stacking...

Kill the Rooster's picture

Is this a joke?

Silver as a commodity OR monetary metal...these wild wild. swings in price....unbelievable...buy buy buy! Is that right? Stack stack stack! Right? Ok I got it.
But, this"manipulation"may outlast my solvency.

Spartacus Rex's picture

Still Stackin Wash Out Or Not

If the price goes down again Whoopee! Bigger Additions Always Welcome! Edit: Sorry... THURD!

Louie's picture

Fourth

Twice as lucky as a #2!

Go buy a raffle ticket already!  Feed the Turd and win great prizes!

monkry's picture

Im late to start the stacking

Late stacker ('2011 only), therefor i'm underwater in au and ag, so if it's to tank again, so be it, after all my RRSP's are not doing any better since ~2000.

I'll tell you what, I'm finding the stinkin' USD/CAD movements that wipe out a lot of the sales price action more annoying than the market price.

beardeus's picture

LONG LIVE GOLD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

and silver...

Louie's picture

and 6th!

So that's how double posts happen!

Sorry - forgive a childish old man.

Silver Monkey's picture

London Bullion Market

Turd - Or anyone else that would know. Does the London PM market work the same as the comex, where you have to front 100% of the capital by the last day of the contract and then wait as long as a month for delivery?  Are there reports off cash settlements above golds spot price in London as well?

tyberious's picture

Table of Contents Click on

Table of Contents

Click on the Links Below to Scroll to the Articles

 

 

Quotes of the Day

From David's Desk: "We try our best to get things right for our readers, but the markets are a mess of irrational behavior. Patience, my friends, patience!

The Holter Report: How much gold do they really have?

Gold Highlights

Richard Russell: This crunch job on gold is the crudest manipulation job I've ever seen.

LeMetropole Cafe: If this was selling by a trader with an eye to raising cash, that trader should be fired.

Greg Hunter: Weekly News Wrap Up - 5/17/13

GATA: Maguire - A bear market only in paper gold, a bull market for real metal

Kitco: Market Nuggets - Deutsche Bank Sees More Gold ETF Liquidation But Pick-Up In Physical Demand

Sprott's Thoughts: Where is the gold coming from?

Jim Willie: Chaos Is Arriving Like A Wild Bitter Wind In The Gold Market

About Miles Franklin

 

http://archive.constantcontact.com/fs108/1101357242253/archive/1113498946821.html

Howard Roark's picture

10th!!!

Nice floor it is!

Salut,

HR

tpbeta's picture

If you pick any more bottoms...

... you're going to need antiseptic

billwilson's picture

COT

Wonder if the morning sell off had anything to do with COT positioning. Will be interesting to see if we get a change of tone after 1:30.

On the positive side the miners are down less percentage wise than gold.

....... edit  :  .... that worked out well .... not! What else is new?

Howard Roark's picture

Antiseptic?

???

Bruises?? Just from stacking (midnite gardening and so...), right?

For the "Manipulations" we have helmets. And tough stomachs.

HR

Spartacus Rex's picture

@ tyberious

Thanks for the convenient links! Saves time and keeps me anchored to Turd's blog  

dropout's picture

Georgie Porgie, Puddin 'N' Pie!

What a laugh! Reading and watching all the MSM hype about how the "bubble" in gold and silver has popped and that the PM bull market has turned and now is the time to sell, sell, sell!

Case in point, they hold up George Soros as an example after it has been revealed that he has liquidated a large portion of GLD. They fail to mention that he has bought a goodly amount of GDXJ and GDX miners, along with still holding 60 millions worth of GLD. His fund is heavy gold and silver (in various investment forms) to the tune of almost a quarter billion bucks!

You have to give the 'Spinmeisters' in the MSM credit for telling such 'tall tales' to your face and keeping from laughing out loud!

So, lets face it. If Georgie Porgie thought the PM's are a losing bet he would be massively short, rather than the position he has taken.  

Urban Roman's picture

LCS

My tiny Jollyville LCS is still out of old silver coinage and bullion silver. They had a small tray of slick Morgans for $27 apiece, and a few 1/20th ounce gold pandas and not much else. They still have numismatic items, of course, things like steel pennies and war nickels with the usual numismatic premiums. Some shiny proof sets, etc. 

Chatted with the proprietor and he said the silver wholesalers won't talk to him any more. They might talk to him when it gets back up to $30. 

J.P. Cubish's picture

Summer

Sell in may and go away.  Could be a long, slow, grinding summer.  My hope is that we stay around this equilibrium through the dog days.  We can add to our stacks and/or our equities, as to each participants ilk.  This is the time to build position, with strong hands, and no margin.

See you, in September....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=QRGLjzFHa40

firstsilver's picture

Liked the Maund-esque reference, Turd

Old Clive must be a chiropractor on the side, the better to benefit from his whiplash-inducing calls for gold and silver.

Just call him old 180-degree Clive. Up, down, up, down.

He has another gear, which you referenced, the could go up, could go down, could stay the same pronouncement. Easy to be right that way. Not so easy to make money on it, though.

I believe this is where I should insert, keep stacking.

Zoltan's picture

Lower Paper Prices

These would seem likely if the end game is indeed to shut down the markets and pay out people with fiat.  I don't doubt that the Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange settlements were at a low price because it would have been easy for them to update a final report showing what prices they paid and..... crickets.

GLD has already given up more metal in redemptions (to the big boys) that I would have guessed they had.  This can't go on for ever because there is no way they were 100% backed by real metals.  Even worse with SLV and I suspect that is why they haven't had the same draw down on inventory (because there isn't any).

The interview with Uncle Ted was awesome (and the transcript is there if you prefer reading to listening) so thanks to whoever posted it.

Now is not the time to be converting real PM back to fiat dollars.  Our friend Sanjeep (sp?) was on Max Keiser's show today and had an excellent interview.

Good luck to all in Gold Dog's Riff-Raffle.

Z

Howard Roark's picture

@OutLookingIn

Exactly!

I have to search for the new definition of "bubble"... Does this get to the MSM desks?

From GoldCore blog:

"India is paying a premium of nearly $40 per 10 gramme bars. Dubai buyers are paying a premium of $7-10 per kilogramme. 

Turkey is reported to be paying a premium of $25 an ounce over spot prices. 

Hong Kong and Singapore buyers are paying premium of $5 per ounce for gold bars.

Demand is not just very strong in Asia. Bullion coin and bar demand also remains very robust in the U.S. and in Europe where premiums have also risen.

Government mints in Australia, the U.S, Canada, South Africa, Austria and the UK are reporting soaring bullion coin demand and are having difficulty meeting the scale of demand. 

Silver coins, in particular, are seeing rising premiums and delays in delivery.

Also little reported is the fact that refineries in Switzerland and elsewhere are also finding it hard to cope with the scale of international demand for gold and silver bars. 

It is clear that the recent fall in gold and silver prices was triggered by speculative traders operating in the futures markets and to a lesser extent by more speculative buyers of ETFs."

Does any asset behave like this in a bubble and get the price smashed? 

Right.

Salut,

HR

Dr Jerome's picture

Burden of proof

Inspired by JY896's post at the end of the last thread, which everyone should read and tip, and as a professor of rhetoric and argumentation, I declare the burden of proof to have fallen on the side of those who deny manipulation.

The manipulation believers have made a solid case.

If the jury were to vote, I think we all agree what the verdict would be--at least if we can keep the the likes of Chilton and Gensler off the jury.

So if anyone out there denies the manipulation of metals, YOU have to make a case at this point if you wish to be taken seriously. otherwise, you are playing the part of John Cleese in the argument sketch below.

Xty's picture

re a long slow summer

Now that's talking.  Sometimes life does slow down and even when you are somewhat cursed to be always awake at dawn, it can be a blessing, albeit often well disguised.  But not so well disguised this past Monday, when happy Canadians drink 24 beers (hence the name, May 24 weekend) on the dock at their cottages to honour a dead monarch, on who's birthday the holiday, I kid you not, never falls.  I didn't drink the 24 beers, as I take a more zen approach to my reality enhancement, but I did wake in the early hours and staggered through the mosquitos with my camera, dog and tea, captured by the wonder of it all.  We had celebrated my father-in-law's 84th birthday, and his two great grand-children were there, my great-niece and nephew.  Perspective is much on my mind.  And a long slow summer is what we all should wish for, on many levels.

Now that is what Monday morning should always look like!

SilverSurfers's picture

Rolling

OF, but not laughing, but knocking socks off, if anyone really cares to. Just Hunting. Just Saying. Just Hoping.

http://forum.astroempires.com/viewtopic.php?f=60&t=111938&p=2113340#p2113340

scored a zero this day, no higher high, heterodyne stytle, no bullished lift off yet.

Bollocks's picture

Here it is ...

As just reported by Zoltan.

Sandeep is interviewed from 13.40

argentus maximus's picture

"How to Humble a Wing

"How to Humble a Wing Nut

There is no standard definition of the all-important term “wing nut,” so let’s provide one. A wing nut is someone who has a dogmatic commitment to an extreme political view (“wing”) that is false and at least a bit crazy (“nut”).

A wing nut might believe that George W Bush is a fascist, that Barack Obama is a socialist, that big banks run the Department of the Treasury or that the U.S. intervened in Libya because of oil. ...." ... and so on...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-20/how-to-humble-a-wing-nut.html

My observation on the reason for such an article existing at all is it seems someone out there has a  wish to empower establishment apologists via the teaching of a better argumentative methodology.

dropout's picture

Five Years Ago - Today

All time high of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) May 21, 2008 @ 11,771.00 points.

Six and half months later on December 4, 2008 @ 666.00 points. A loss of 94%

Al time low on February 6, 2012 @ 648.00 points.

Today May 21, 2013 @ 836.00 points.

A certain amount of distortion in the index is due to the surplus of new shipping that has come online. But does not fully explain the poor showing of global shipping, despite a recent rise in deep sea freight rates.

Since the crash of 08 the BDI has not touched, nor closely approached it's 200 DMA on the weekly chart, which sits today at 1,789.99 points. A far cry from it's halcyon days of five years ago!  

Recovery? No. Recession? No. Depression? Absolutely.

Those pesky fundamentals.

Hunt brother's picture

"Lumber has lost it's Luster"....

Is a headline you will not see on mainstream media.

Lumber was over 400 in March and is down two percent today to 312.

The reason CNBS gave for soft home sales last month was lack of supply of homes for sale.

Hilarious! Home Depot is leading the Dow higher? Total disconnect from reality.

buzlightening's picture

I don't see a long slow Summer.

I see a brutal overnight sudden change in fiat devaluations.  Perhaps before June one but a USDinker dollar long wave cycle the end of June may also be the iron curtain shutdown of financials.  Trapping all who are long, short, or out of markets physically in gold and silver.  The paper chasing bulls of the DOW and S&P are so rip for the slaughter house you can hear the porkin pig men licking pork chops; foaming at the mouth.  Coming in overnight as thieves do in an instant suddenly.  Only ones which will profit on the gold & silver mkts will be the LT stackers.  All paper precious metals bogASS ponzi mkts obliterated overnight.  I see the sudden fall of the financial iron curtain upon all us slavoradors with in 2wks and latest LT USDinker cycle last week of June perhaps imploding directly after 7/4 flag waving.  This extends ands pretends longer than the 4th of July I'll personally send a blockbuster flaring firework up benron burnokiOs arse with enough already dead head fed.  Some ones head explodes between now and then and it's not mine. 

Howard Roark's picture

@Here it it...

"Bermuda Triangle´s economy"

Catchiiiinng! Right on!

HR

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