Nostradumbass

I know what you're thinking. How can I guy who is dead wrong all the time have his own website? Good question! Maybe it has something to do with this:

But, seriously, it's a good question. How can I be so freaking wrong all of the time? I mean, it's not like I just fell off the turnip truck and began drawing lines on charts. I'd been pretty good at this stuff for quite a while. So what has happened, aside from the obvious Jack Daniels, methamphetamine, valium and glue-sniffing addictions?

I think the answer lies with three things:

  1. Fed/PD involvement in manipulating nearly all markets
  2. The predominance of High Frequency Trading in nearly all markets
  3. And the coordination of numbers 1 and 2 above

For example, many wonder at how the U.S. stock market can keep going up. That's easy! The Fed's Primary Dealers receive, on average, about $2,000,000,000 each business day, direct from The Fed. Now most of this gets reinvested into treasuries in order to prop up the bond market but a considerable amount is left over each day and the majority of that money gets plowed into S&P futures where the attendant leverage multiplies the buying effect as much as 20 to 30 times. As Ruprecht would say: "That's a lot."

So, of course, the stock market isn't going up because your neighbor just put $10,000 into The Growth Fund of America or some old lady just bought 200 shares of ConEd. It's going up because The Fed is giving free money to the banks in order to prop it up. From there, the HFTs which represent about 80% of the daily volume, take over and bada-bing, bada-boom, you're at Dow 15,000.

And with all this free money sloshing around and being driven by mindless computers, technicals and fundamentals get thrown out the window. Technical analysis only works if a group of relatively risk-averse human beings actually see the same formations and lines and then choose to act in those certain spots. When you're dealing with computers and risk-free cash, you can do anything you want!

Sure, two days ago the POSX looked like it was headed lower. It doesn't matter. The euro looked stable to higher then, too. So what? Crude, the grains, copper...all the same. All driven by momo-chasing HFT computer algos which haphazardly buy one day and sell the next.

So what does this mean? Well, I'm still going to tell you what I think and what I expect but I must warn you again: Attempting to profit by trading in this environment is suicidal. You will think you are doing the right thing and then, for example, a baseless rumor gets floated after the Comex close and gold is whacked for $40 before it can re-open. How's that stop order treating ya? Brutal, just brutal.

(Of course, none of this is new. For those die-hards that want to keep trading, I set up the service with Andrew Maguire over a year ago. You might think it's too expensive but in return I'll ask you how much money you've lost over the past 30 days alone? Considering Andy's performance, I'd say his fee is pretty cheap. If you want to learn more, just click the ad on the right side of this page.)

So here we are. The machines have pounded us all the way to $1425 and $23.30. Ugh. Never mind that The Bernank made no mention of "tapering" today. Never mind that Andy reported that today was the largest physical allocation month-to-date in London. Never mind the CoT reports. Never mind the 300 tonnes taken out of the GLD YTD. Never mind the 100 tonnes taken out of Comex vaults YTD. Just...never mind. The machines are in charge and they will continue to be in charge...until they're not.

And when might that happen? Lots of talk out there about imminent collapses and paper disconnects. Chatter galore on force majeure and cash settlement. Oh sure, this is going to happen one day. No doubt about it. But just don't go getting your hopes up that that day is going to be next Tuesday. If we've learned anything these past three years or so it's this: The main power possessed by The Powers That Be is the power to put off the inevitable. The music will keep playing and the party will continue until the day comes when it simply doesn't. That day is coming and it will likely be at a moment not of TPTB's choosing. Clinging to power and the Old Order, the bullion banks will likely create paper metal until there simply isn't an ounce left that they can steal hypothecate and leverage.

Your only winning move remains the acquisition and storage of physical precious metal. And I don't mean the CEF or the PHYS or a certificate from an LBMA vault. I mean metal that you hold in your own two hands. The real stuff. Period. I know there are production and delivery delays. Who cares. Acquire it and deliver it, while you still can. In order to make this easier, I've assembled a list of "affiliates" for you. They can be found here: http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/precious-metals-store and here: http://www.hardassetsalliance.com/cm/precious-metals-breakthrough. If you want to hasten the decline of TPTB, go to these businesses today and order some metal. 

Here are your mostly-worthless charts. Again, you and I can see where there should be support and buying pressure against the shorts. But that hardly matters when some goon no one has ever heard of can float a rumor and whack the global price of gold for $40.

And I know this is painful but I'm going to give you a CoT update later today, nonetheless. Cast it aside if you want. Claim that it's just fudged-up and manipulated, too, if you want. But...we are talking about levels of Spec shorting that we haven't seen since 2001 and, in some cases, even longer. This fundamental market structure will sometime soon show itself as a bullish indicator once again. It's just a matter of when. Now "when" might be when the banks are finally net long both gold and silver. We'll see. But for now, we'll just keep monitoring the levels in each category and discussing it every Friday.

Anyway, that's all for today. I hope you are able to have an enjoyable and relaxing weekend, regardless of all this nonsense. Keep calm and add to your stack.

TF

843 Comments

Turd Ferguson's picture

Thank you to Pining for the

MODERATOR

Thank you to Pining for the excellent gif.

achmachat's picture

it's been said so often, but it never gets old: this place rocks

and now for your well-deserved weekend!

have a good one!!!!

Fr. Bill's picture

Three fingers of that whiskey for me, pleeeeeze!

Oh darn. I'll have to settle for thurd instead.

Be Prepared's picture

The Mountain Top

My awareness of the truth was a hard ascent along a mighty tough trail.  The markers along the way were full of lies until I realized that the only real path was the one that had no markings at all.  It was dark and dreary with whispers of "Ye shall perish lest ye turn back!"  All that I wanted to walk with me laughed and scoffed at me providing no solace to the questions deep within my heart.  A great fire started rushing for me and, at first, I wanted to run from it for all my fears about what lay beyond. 

Finally, I knew I needed to stand and let the fire engulf me.  It needed to burn away all of my preconceptions, my conditioning, my beliefs in a system designed to keep me ensnared within it's grasp.  The searing heat of all my readings and of all my toiled thoughts burned to me ashes.  I awoke, though, to find myself cast anew and walking on a higher path than I had ever reached before.  The air was thin, but clear and crisp to breathe for every draw within my lungs gave me strength.  A great light broke through the canopy and I emerged to the revelation that I was created to be free and to truly pursue a course defined by my will and my faith.  I have stumbled and shall stumble still, but I have been to the mountain top and I dwell there still.

Turd, you and your efforts are one of the few lodgings on this peak.  You help us peer and ponder as the great unraveling continues....  I am appreciate all that you do and I hope that you realize that it's not merely your charts which drive this community, but rather your willingness to bring light to the dark crevices where the wolves are hiding ready to tear us from our perch.

dgstage's picture

Good Post

Thanks

We are in for one hell of a ride!

Strongsidejedi's picture

Top 10

go for top 10?

kingboo's picture

Every time I think i'm out........

They pull me back in!

tonyw's picture

The machines are in charge

"The machines are in charge and they will continue to be in charge...until they're not."

Things can take a lot longer than you might imagine to resolve themselves but when they do the results can be greater then you imagined.

John Galt's picture

Cheers

Hoisting a glass your way, Turd, in salute.

Big Dutch's picture

In Charge Until They're Not

I think it won't be much longer.  As in two months tops and I watch silver, gold, oil, dollar, markets religiously 24/7.  Asian markets are the key I believe.  One of these days I may make a larger post, till then take my feelings for what they're worth (not much.  lol).

agNau's picture

They do use all markets....

and
TA is relevant....because they have been using it to their advantage....busting trend lines, MA's, and support/resistance levels, at critical times.
Clear example is dollar drop. Busted. Now looking likely an inverted H & S POSSIBLY forming.
Concerted effort through key FX.
If you believed in TA, and bought the fantasy FED story, and followed the trend..........where would you bet your fiat?

Keep the faith.

Physical is end game.
Physical will expose them very soon.

BUY THE REALITY!

*edit
http://gainspainscapital.com/2013/05/10/on-the-verge-of-the-biggest-bond-implosion-of-all-time/

I am not endorsing this persons blog.
But looking at the trend line presented on JGB.....where would be the most likely area for intervention by the FED?
How will they accomplish both the support of JGB, and Dollar, and maintain pressure on the metals?
Think of the "other" tools.
We need to begin thinking like them.......
And anticipating their actions.......outside the box.

Strongsidejedi's picture

US mint report

http://news.coinupdate.com/us-mint-sales-report-silver-proof-set-debuts-1966/\

On May 3, the US Mint resumed sales for certain silver numismatic products which had been suspended since April 15, pending a price decrease. The 2012 Annual Uncirculated Dollar Coin Set and 2012-P Chaco Culture 5 Ounce Silver Uncirculated Coin saw their prices decreased by the equivalent of $10 per ounce of silver content. At the time of this article, both products had sold out at the US Mint. The 2013-W Proof Silver Eagle resumed with a $5 price decrease and saw sales of 45,882 for the period

Somebody fill me in here... why would the US mint lower their silver prices and by doing so exacerbate the tight silver supply in the US?

Save_America1st's picture

Friday Sale Day!!!

Oh wait, my bad...paper price doesn't matter anymore.  My LCS will still sell silver for 28.50 an ounce!  No matter what "paper" does, he's been keeping things steady at 28.50 for 10 oz bars and 1 oz Buffaloes!  He will do so as long as he is still getting it for 26 from his dealer, and so far there has not been a supply problem. 

And 28.50 isn't bad at all.  I'll take that any time....he needs to make a living too, right?  It's pay day, so I think I'll pick up a 10 oz bar to celebrate the end of the not-so-great Keynesian experiment.  lol

I used to think on days like this that I may as well wait until Sunday night or Monday to see if the "price" might go down further, but WTF does that matter anymore, right!?? 

Right now, no matter what the "price" does today or Monday or any other day for that matter, at this point I can still get some nice new shiny gear for 28.50/oz.  And if that changes I'll pay more, I don't care.  We all know eventually the prices will get too high and nobody will be selling, so just stack now while we still can.

Everyone have a great day and great weekend!  Keep addin' to your stacks and sit back and watch the show!  We are right and the Turd Army rules! cool

Don't worry Turd...in the long run you and many others who have helped so many of us will be proven to have been extremely prescient and all will be well. 

Juggernaut Nihilism's picture

Easy answer

Confirmation bias, plain and simple.  You're a smart guy, but until you cleanse yourself of your overwhelming confirmation bias, your predictions aren't going to fare better than random guesses.

Juggernaut Nihilism's picture

Paper price doesn't matter?

Paper price doesn't matter because your local coin shop is gouging you?  If the paper price doesn't matter, go to your local coin shop and offer to sell them silver for $28, explaining to them how the ETFs are frauds, the futures market is corrupt, etc and they're really getting the deal of a lifetime.

Turd Ferguson's picture

OK

MODERATOR

whatever you say

Response to: Easy answer
Silver_investor's picture

You hit the nail on the head

"If we've learned anything these past three years or so it's this: The main power possessed by The Powers That Be is the power to put off the inevitable."

I couldn't have said it better. 

Howard Roark's picture

Besides all the sh++ and mindfu++

That´s it Turd: in a true sense - Keep calm and stack metal.
Besides "there is no markets, only manipulations" (GATA, Powell)

Nice weekend to all,
HR

Wizard's picture

Just Because

It in odd way gives me inspiration in dark times

W

Road_Scholar's picture

The Big Bernanke- gangsta rap style (R rated)

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQOsp7HUCEzqRaC--WgOvX

(AP) Chicago, Illinois:  Federal Reserve Bank Chairman "Big" Ben Bernanke addresses the audience of economists with a rather candid monologue to the Senate Banking Committee.  Senators, Federal Reserve Presidents and bitches, listen up dogs as I floss and fly dis nappy-ass mo-fo for yo asses.  Here is the straight-up, yo.
 
Just waking up in the morning gotta thank God, I don't know but today seems kinda odd
No barking from the dogs, no smog- And momma cooked a breakfast with no hog

I got my grub on, but didn't pig out, finally got a call from a girl wanna dig out
Hooked it up on later as I hit the ho' thinking will I live, another twenty-fo'
I gotta go cause I got me a drop top and if I hit the switch, I can make the ass drop
Had to stop at a red light looking in my mirror not a jacker in sight and everything is alright.

I got a beep from Kim and she can fuck all night, called up the homies and I'm askin y'all
Which court, are y'all playin basketball?
Get me on the court and I'm trouble, last week fucked around and got a triple double
Freaking brothers everyway like M.J.
I can't believe, today was a good FOMC day

Drove to the pad and hit the showers, didn't even get no static from the cowards
Cause just yesterday them fools tried to blast me, saw the police and they rolled right past me
No flexin, didn't even look in a niggaz direction ss I ran the intersection
Went to Short Dog's house, they was watchin Yo! MTV Raps. What's the haps on the craps
Shake em up, shake em up, shake em up, shake em
Roll em in a circle of niggaz and watch me break em
With the seven, seven-eleven, seven-eleven
Seven even back do lil Joe I picked up the cash flow
Then we played bones, and I'm yellin domino sad now i am yelling dominoes
Plus nobody I know got killed in South Central L.A.- Today was a good FOMC day

Left my niggaz house paid, picked up a girl been tryin to fuck since the twelve grade
It's ironic, I had the brew she had the chronic, the Lakers beat the Supersonics
I felt on the big fat fanny, pulled out the jammy, and killed the punanny
And my dick runs deep so deep so deep- put her ass to sleep
Woke her up around one she didn't hesitate, to call Big Ben the top gun
Drove her to the pad and I'm coasting, took another sip of the potion hit the three-wheel motion
I was glad everything had worked out, dropped her ass off, then I chirped out
Today was like one of those fly dreams, didn't even see a berry flashing those high beams
No helicopter looking for a murder, two in the morning got the fat burger
Even saw the lights of the Goodyear blimp and it read "Big Ben's a Pimp"
Drunk as hell but no throwing up, half way home and my pager still blowing up
Today I didn't even have to use my A.K. I got to say it was a good FOMC day.

Hey wait, wait a minute fool...
Stop the shit, what the fuck am I thinking about?  Print a few trillion of da motherfuckers, sheeeit!

Headswim's picture

@Juggernaut

It's very easy for Turd and most people here to have a bullish bias, because this scenario has been played out in smaller scales hundreds of times throughout history. How many times does Turd advocate owning and continuing to accumulate physical and warn not to trade the paper markets? I don't trade but Turd frequently cautions in his posts that downward moves may be possible. But we all expect gold and silver to go up eventually based on the fundamentals...it's why we're here.

I'd rather be 10 years too early than 1 day late when this all goes down.

The Watchman's picture

Cobra Striking?

Live New York Silver Chart [ Kitco Inc. ]
Juggernaut Nihilism's picture

@Headswim

I agree.  The longterm message is crystal clear.  But then why are even bothering with charts?  I think it's kind of a mixed message that often gives people a false sense of certainty regarding time frame/etc...

buzlightening's picture

Turd will be vindicated.

This is what the liar bankstering rat bastards do.  The black magic illusions spun by the paper shuffling which doctors can always go longer than rationale logical sane minds perceive.  Let the little dogs bite.  Not one of the rat bastard furry pawed yelping, foamin at the mouth keynesians will last much longer.  Truth prevails always.  Fiat collapses always.  bankster thugs in bed with gov goon platooning con men, always pretend to have never seen it coming.  The planned risk, spread upon the innocent citizens, as the financial iron curtains leave we the people groping in the dark, for answers of why we were robbed blindly in a debt based monetary collapse, always is a mystery to the rank'n file citizen.  Always will be until the black magic illusionist banksters get called on the wash, rinse,  and repeat cycle of ball faced fraud upon the people.  Listen to Celente as he's got the cycle down.  http://usawatchdog.com/world-war-3-middle-east-out-of-control-gerald-celente/

Hey it's 2 days old and already posted; no doubt but if you haven't listened and can't see what Celente clearly points out, then stand over in the stevie wonder crowd. The crowd; masses so blind they'll get financially plowed under as the banksters lay seed for the next harvest of idiots and their money.  2013 will vindicate the sound money physical gold & silver in hand citizen.  When in 2013 is beyond many of us but Jim Willie is most certain the looking back of US citizens and devalued USDinker dollars will be the end of this year.  Remember it's total and complete financial scorched earth by the devious rat bastard bankster gangsters, so however much more time we the people get enlightened; awakened and prepared the better.  It's not long fellow stackers.  Not long at all.  Compared to the length of epic deep great depression II which will sweep upon this nation as a desolating scourge. 

NonoverlappingMagicCereal's picture

re: disconnects

Lots of talk out there about imminent collapses and paper disconnects.

Is there?  I remember lots of talk right after the smash in April, when premiums shot up and the online retailers were tapped out.  The consensus at the time seemed to be that this was a permanent shift, and that premiums would only continue to rise.

But they haven't, have they?  I look around the major retailers and see silver in stock for $1.00 - $1.50 over spot all over the place.  Maybe you can't find your exact favoritest coin for that price, but the lord almighty himself can't tell the difference between one silver atom and another.

And yet I get the feeling I've heard this song before.  Price drops, premiums rise temporarily during the ensuing retail rush, and the disconnect has finally arrived!  But then volatility recedes, retail inventories replenish, and premiums revert to normal.  Then mass amnesia the next time it happens.

Save_America1st's picture

and look at that chart!!!

A nice FUBM just for you Turd!  Perfect timing. 

agNau's picture

And here....

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-10/japanese-government-bonds-halted-limit-down-yields-spike-10-week-high-worst-day-5-ye

Now what will Ben do to stabilize this?
He MUST.
Without stepping in here, he risks the whole falling like dominoes.

The quickening of pace continues........

Today's, yesterday's, and last weeks efforts are wasted and forgotten. More water MUST be poured on the fire Ben.
It is beginning to overwhelm their efforts.

Just A Regular Guy's picture

Same as most others here

I think we're going to see this final smash-down over the next few weeks (maybe? - see the dead-cat bounce being painted perfectly on the daily chart) then blast-off! As many pundits have said, there's a total disconnect with "safe" assets versus government paper and stawks. Japan may be the thing that launches the bond-market implosion.... who knows what will cause this blow up, suffice to say I couldn't care less if gold goes lower, in fact I want it to go lower next week! I want cheaper PMs!! The next few months should be very very interesting...

On another note anyone see the big movements in foreign policy? China had palastinian Mamoud Abbas over for some bok choi, then after that the Israelie PM was shooting the shit with premier Xi over some Mongolian lamb. Further the US and Russia are sitting down to talk about Syria and the UK has chirped in too saying "peacful resolution". I think the Russian's might have won the Syria battle (and the Saudi's have lost it).... who knows. Suffice to say these developments are pretty significant.

The metal bulls will be vindicated in the next 6-12 months I am certain!

Peace guys/gals!

Redneck_Rampage's picture

JP Bonds Halted = move up in PM

Now that bonds in Japan have been halted (no more volatility today) of course we see a buying spree in gold / silver! ;)  here's to when the Japanese banks have sold all their gold to replace bond losses, and gold/silver are finally a little more unfettered!!

pforth's picture

Sorry Turd, my fault...

You see I've been following your predictions and the universe is out to get me so of course they aren't coming true :(

Syndicate contentComments for "Nostradumbass"