Gold Prices and Where To Buy Gold

How's that for some shameless search engine optimization? Seriously, why the heck not? If folks are out there searching Google for information on the precious metals, we might as well direct them here, right?

It's not as if the site isn't plenty busy...the last two weeks have seen record numbers of visitors and pageviews...but what the heck? The world needs as many Turdites as possible. And I suppose that this is a good place to remind new readers and lurkers: Remember that Turdville is managed, written and edited by yours truly. If you decide to join, your comments won't immediately be seen in the posts or forums. To control spam, every new "account" is moderated until I can approve it. Sometimes this happens almost immediately. Sometimes I'm away and/or busy and it takes a while. But we want you to sign up so please do...and then just be patient. We'll get you up and running as soon as possible.

Speaking of being up and running, how about our precious precious? I had noted last evening that the move through $1435 was a positive development and look at us now. I currently have June gold at $1455, just $2 off its highs. May silver had actually breached $24 but is now back down to $23.88. Some of the action in silver is undoubtedly related to option expiry today but, nonetheless, the action in both metals is encouraging.

Let's start with gold. It is now UP for seven of the last eight days since the $240 disaster of 4/12 and 4/15. Dead cat bounce. Snap back rally. Whatever. The fact is that price came down so quickly that it has left a virtual "air pocket" on the chart. See for yourself. Yes, there are some spots where technical selling could emerge but, frankly, there just isn't anything in the way of gold until it approaches $1500. There we will find some rough sledding. There are three main points that you can expect the shorts to protect.

  1. The 20-day moving average, currently near $1493
  2. Psychological resistance of the round number $1500
  3. And this is the biggest: Keeping gold down and out, below the 19-month range bottom of $1525-1530.

So, let's see what the rest of the day and tomorrow brings. Tomorrow morning has the release of the initial Q1 U.S. GDP guesstimates so perhaps that can provide the spark for a rush toward resistance point #1. We'll see. For now, here are your charts:

And I suppose that this is no surprise: Where gold has rallied 7 of the past 8 days, silver hasn't done squat. It's actually only up 2 of the last 8! And notice the different trajectories on the 4-hour charts. Ick. Oh well. Let's not get too caught up in the very short term. Look instead at the daily silver chart and note that it, too, has an air pocket between $24 and $26. (Now you know why silver fell back from $24 so quickly earlier today.) Like gold, let's see what tomorrow brings. Until then, with May silver option expiry today, expect some more volatility, likely centered around $24. First Notice Day is not until next Tuesday, the 30th, so there's still plenty of time for Cartel fun-and-games. Personally, I'm just laying low.

The global physical gold drain that we've been monitoring for weeks is continuing. In fact, it seems to be increasing in intensity. Two weeks ago today, I wrote this about the ongoing liquidation of the GLD: http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4633/enencumbered-gold At the time, the alleged GLD "inventory" stood at 1,181.42 metric tonnes, already down 12.48% for calendar year 2013. In the two weeks since, GLD has shed another 88.44 metric tonnes. This brings the combined liquidation YTD to 256.94 metric tonnes or 19.03%. This means that, YTD, the alleged GLD "inventory" has lost:

  • 1 bar out of every 5 it held on 1/2/13
  • A total of 8,260,812 troy ounces
  • A London Good Delivery bar is 400 troy ounces so the YTD bar loss stands at 20,652
  • Let me state that again...20,652 gold bars have left the alleged GLD "inventory" since 1/2/13

Let's look at it another way. Here's my pallet. 192 gold bars on this sucker. Very heavy. I hope the wood is strong enough to support all that gold!

The total withdrawal from just the GLD year-to-date is 107.56 of these. "Here you go. Where would you like them Mr. Li. Shall I put them in the vault with the others?"

But this is only part of the story. As stated, the GLD began 2013 with an "inventory" of 1,349.92 metric tonnes of gold. By 3/7/13, the "inventory" had fallen to 1,243.05. So, it took a little over two months to suck out the first 100 metric tonnes. By 4/16/13, it had fallen to 1,145.92. Thus it took about 6 weeks for the next 100 tonnes to leave. Now at 1,092.98, the GLD is halfway to another 100 but it has only taken 8 days. Holy exponential increase, Batman! At this rate, the GLD will be completely drained by about 2:00 next Wednesday.smiley

But, again, that's not the whole story. Confirmed data out of Shanghai shows deliveries in excess of 1000 metric tonnes YTD. http://www.sge.sh/publish/sgeen/statistics/index.htm And London is delivering allocated gold like crazy, too, often at the rate of 15-25 tonnes/day.

On the retail level, The U.S. Mint reports April sales of 196,500 ounces. This is the 2nd-highest monthly total on record behind 231,500 of December 2009...and there are still 6 days to go! It's not just the U.S., though, retail sales are breaking records around the globe. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-24/u-s-mint-sales-of-gold-coins-at-3-year-high-after-prices-tumble.html

And here is what we really need to watch: The Comex inventories. First a refresher:

Registered gold: Available for immediate delivery to those who demand bullion. In condition to satisfy a Comex delivery contract. This is actual gold, in London good delivery bar form.

Eligible gold: This is also gold (allegedly) in good condition but this gold is not available for delivery. Since it's not available for delivery and not "registered", this "gold" could be anything. Gold bars? Yes. But, frankly, no more valuable/deliverable as gold than my left shoe, some used toner cartridges or my old 5-iron.

OK, so where are we? As of late yesterday, TOTAL COMEX INVENTORY was this:

Eligible: 8,345,000 ounces or 266.9 metric tonnes. Hmmm. That's interesting. I'm sure it's just a coincidence that the total withdrawal YTD from the GLD is 8,260,812 ounces or 256.94 tonnes.

Registered: 2,210,000 ounces or just 68.74 metric tonnes.

And now here's the fun part. First Notice Day for the June13 contract is Friday, May 31. Deliveries will then take place through the month of June to all who stand on 5/31 as well as anyone else who shows up and plunks down 100% margin during the month of June. We've had two "delivery months" thus far in 2013. In February, over 1.3MM ounces or about 41 metric tonnes were delivered. So far in April, we've seen 1.1MM ounces delivered, about 34.5 metric tonnes. Do the math, please. Two more delivery months and The Comex registered inventories will be bone dry and empty. Already we're hearing anecdotal stories of delivery delays and cash settlement. At this rate, can you imagine how this will all look by August? This "story" is about to get much, much more interesting.

Finally, today, I need to throw a bone to Uncle Ted. In his mid-week letter to subscribers yesterday, he came up with some analysis that, frankly, I'm angry that I didn't think of myself. (You can read it all at: www.butlerresearch.com)

Ted broke down the actual paper gains and losses on The Comex for the biggest traders. By using the CoT data and the price changes for The Big Smash last week, this is what he found:

In silver, the Specs and Commercials that were short made $2.5B and those who were long lost $2.5B. In gold, the shorts made even more, ringing the register for $7B while the longs got clipped for $7B. OUCH! Those are preposterously large numbers. But that's not the point of this exercise.

Recall all of the frustration here and on other sites regarding "the paper tail wagging the spot dog". Comex futures trading is not and was never meant to be a price discovery platform. (Do you hear me Bart? Are you reading this Gary?) Instead, it is a place for producers to hedge and speculators to wager. Real price discovery should always be in the physical market. Nonetheless, Comex price currently sets the physical price and look at the damage the paper traders on the Comex have wrought.

If one assumes about 1B ounces of silver in the global bullion inventory and another 1B ounces in retail coins and bars, these holders alone saw the value of their physical silver decline by $10B on the $5 paper price drop. The paper traders rigged price lower in order to line their pockets and they made $2.5B. By doing so, they "cost" the holders of physical silver $10B.

Now if you thank that's bad and infuriating, wait until you see the paper effect on physical gold...

For the sake of simplicity, let's calculate the total amount of gold in the world to be about 5B ounces. (Your three Olympic swimming pools or whatever.) A $200 paper price drop multiplied by 5B ounces equals a total loss in "value" of $1,000,000,000,000. Yes, that's one trillion dollars! And you wonder why we should all be furious and full of hate toward the bankers and their monkeys. For the sake of their selfish padding of their trading accounts and bonus pools, they rigged price lower by $200 in two days. This made them $7B. By doing so, they diminished the fiat-conversion value of the entire stock of global gold by $1T!! Bastards! Greedy, selfish, narcissist bastards! My unbending desire is that, one day soon, retribution will be dealt to them and I hope to be standing at the base of the gallows when it comes.

OK, it's now 12:45 EDT so I suppose I'd better stop and get this posted. I see that prices are hanging in there at $1456 and $24.09. This is very encouraging! Again, let's see what tomorrow's GDP estimates are and hope for short-squeezing. Have a great rest of your day. Thanks for stopping by.

TF

383 Comments

Turd Ferguson's picture

For those keeping score at home...

MODERATOR

Here's what 107 pallets, each holding 192 bars, looks like. As Ruprecht would say: "That's a lot".

































Right there that look like about enough to fill one of those swimming pools. WOW!

printmemoney's picture

First

aww yeah

Road_Scholar's picture

A story for Turdville...

THE BROTHEL

The madam opened the brothel door in Winnipeg and saw a rather dignified, well-dressed, good-looking man in his late forties or early fifties.

'May I help you sir?' she asked.

'I want to see Valerie,' the man replied.

'Sir, Valerie is our most expensive lady. Perhaps you would prefer someone else', said the madam.  'No, I must see Valerie,' he replied.

Just then, Valerie appeared and announced to the man she charged $5000 a visit. Without hesitation, the man pulled out five thousand dollars and gave it to Valerie, and they went upstairs. After an hour, the man calmly left.

The next night, the man appeared again, once more demanding to see Valerie. Valerie explained that no one had ever come back two nights in a row as she was too expensive. But there were no discounts. The price was still $5000.

Again, the man pulled out the money, gave it to Valerie, and they went upstairs. After an hour, he left.

The following night the man was there yet again. Everyone was astounded that he had come for a third consecutive night, but he paid Valerie and they went upstairs.

After their session, Valerie said to the man, 'No one has ever been with me three nights in a row. Where are you from?'.

The man replied, 'Ontario'.

'Really', she said. 'I have family in ‘Ontario’.'I know.' the man said. 'Your sister died, and I am her bank’s Branch Manager.  Her will directed me to give you your $15,000 inheritance.'

The moral of the story is if you keep your money in the system you will get screwed.

Mr. Fix's picture

I can't believe I sat there staring at all the bars,

before I realized it was an entirely new thread.

Oh well, only third today.

Wow, that is a lot of gold!

Yes, we can fill a swimming pool with it, but in reality, it will never be seen again.

rl999's picture

FIRST!

First to hat tip TF's post, which I did after reading the first two sentences. I agree completely.

Why the hell not, they'll be better off once they've been here and seen the 'light' (reflecting off those pallets).

Chord's picture

5

Fifth!

Igiveup2's picture

Don't win the cigar but..........

Love watching the charts go the other way for a change.  Quite a turnaround.  Won't last but gotta enjoy the moment.

Turd Ferguson's picture

And just published

MODERATOR

Here's my pal Andy, on earlier today with Max.

 

ArtL's picture

maybe we have seen the bottom of PM?

still a lot of paper to bash PMs.  when the COMEX is drained, then the price of PMs will be set free.

dgstage's picture

Hello All

Mr. Fix thanks for the suggestion on the program for voice dictating.

Check this out?? fema and zombie drill

Also nice to see a rally!

AlexCojones's picture

What GLD means in Simple English

"Gold Liquidation, Dumbass"

'Nother Good Report Mr. T.  Has Spring sprung in Nebraska Yet? And this is for Katie Rose and her twins.

A.B.'s picture

Top 10

Short sqeeeeeeeeeeeeezeeeeeee.  :)))))

nice finish of another nice post. Thank you and joining your wishes about the squeeze. I think we are getting there.

by the way anybody know how many days of a delay does the US Mint figures released? 

ancientmoney's picture

@Turd re: charts and all . . .

I love this site, as it provides entertainment, useful commentary from you and the posters, and links galore to other important info streams. 

It also gives me an outlet, as Lord knows the other people in my circle haven't a clue, other than my kids and wife.  And even my wife rolls her eyes sometimes.

Anyway, I just was struck that you still chart silver and gold.  As you know, charting works for paper (futures) markets, which by many reckonings, appears to be on the way out, to be replaced finally by real, physical markets.

I don't know if there is a way for you to start a new pricing mechanism that reflects this new reality, but if you could, I think it would be more useful than charting COMEX.

Maybe we use Shanghai, or "spot plus premiums" (which would still be cOMEX-based, but recognizes some difference) or something I haven't thought of yet.

Just an idea.

SRSrocco's picture

THIS IS SERIOUSLY BULLISH FOR GOLD & SILVER...

Barrick ponders suspending Pascua Lama Project permanently

RENO (MINEWEB) -

Barrick Gold is considering suspending the Pascua Lama project or developing a smaller pit on the Argentinean side of the project, among other options, Barrick officials announced Wednesday.

“At Pascua Lama, we are working to address the environmental and other regulatory requirements on the Chilean side of the project,” said Barrick CEO Jamie Sokalsky. “Concurrently, we are taking hard look at evaluating all alternatives in light of uncertainties associated with the suspension of construction in Chile

As a result of the court order, Barrick suspended construction activities in Chile, including work on the primary crusher and the Chilean side of the tunnel that moves ore from Chile to Argentina.

-----------------

Folks... this is a SERIOUS ANNOUNCEMENT.   Pascua Lama was supposed to bring 700,000-800,000 oz of gold and 35 million oz of silver PER YEAR! 

When I spoke to Harvey Organ about this last year, he told me that Barrick would never get this mine up and running.  Barrick is contemplating on whether or not to set up and mine the smaller area located on the Argentina side, but this would not be commercially viable.  They are just saying that to CUT THE LOSSES FROM THE STOCK PRICE...LOL.

We have to remember, the majority of the ORE is located on the Chilean side, so without the GOODS, the project is a bust.

By the way... my Website is LOOKING GOOD.  Going live soon.

libertyforall's picture

Gold bar specifications

Turd, from what I have been able to discern, the London gold bars are 400 ounces, whereas the Comex gold bars are 100 ounces.

http://bullionstrategies.com/SPECSIFICATIONS.html

You can find this info on other web sites also. 

ReachWest's picture

Mind Numbing

Excellent post - thanks Turd.

The drainage numbers from GLD are simply mind-numbing and as Turd points out the swirling velocity as it all exits the drain, appears to be accelerating.

Something is going to disconnect sometime in the next few months.

EDIT: My gosh - Ag up 4.88% so far today and still climbing.

agNau's picture

Silver has a......

wedging look.
Watching for a hold above $24.10.

foxenburg's picture

@libertyforall

Minimum gold content
350 troy ounces (approximately 10.9 kilograms)

Maximum gold content

430 troy ounces (approximately 13.4 kilograms)

http://www.lbma.org.uk/pages/index.cfm?page_id=27&title=specifications

AlexCojones's picture

The New $100 and Five Dollar Fakes found here in Phoenix

Bill Banzai's Brand-spanking-new design below.

Reminded me of yesterday's visit to the Goodwill thrift store here in Phoenix. The clerk there always scans my $20, $50 and $100 bank notes. Yesterday she scanned my FIVE -! Now this was a circulated fiver, not some new Bill Banzai five. I asked her, half-seriously, if Goodwill was finding many fake dollar fives. YES we are, she said. Someone copies the fiver dollar bill corners in green and then pastes them over ONE dollar bills! So I said that I better watch for the new Washington five-dollar bill. Jefferson is soooo last year.

Goodwill. Always something interesting happening there. More Goodwill stories later.

NEW 100 DOLLAR BILL

Average:

treefrog's picture

rising into the close

go - go - gold!

hi - yo - silver!

lead 'n brass?   git - um up, scout!

A.B.'s picture

Looks like we have a new heading on both

1500 & 26
Hat is getting smaller and smaller as the distance gets bigger and bigger.
Turd, your call of 22 has a great chance to become history as the bottom of the great run. :))

delacroix's picture

barricks other regulatory

barricks other regulatory requirements = get legal title to the property first, and don't try to cut chile out of the revenue loop.

SRSrocco's picture

YES... IT'S BEEN FRICKEN FRUSTRATING...

WHAT A DAMN 2 WEEKS IT HAS BEEN....LOL

I have to tell you, technology is great when its working.  As I mentioned last week, my Internet Provider closed up shop when the store in which he was housing his antenna for his 12 customers in our little town increased his rent by triple.  So, he decided to cut internet service to all 12 of us... basically overnight.

Let me tell you, it has been a real headache trying to get another internet provider.  This is my luck...LOL

1) DSL does go to the house right next to us...BUT THE SERVICE ENDS THERE...lol

2) another internet provider has 100 GB / month with pretty good speed internet for $39.95, but its service ends 1 mile from our house...LOL

3) I decided not to go with Hughes Net Satellite because of all the negative stuff I have heard.

4) I now have Verizon wireless who charge a nice sum of $100 a month for a lousy 10 GB of data.  With the research I do, that is not a good deal at all.

Unfortunately, Verizon doesn't work all that well as we are near the end of the cell tower range and its 3G and not 4G. 

This was really great timing as it happened when my website was under construction.  Furthermore, I missed some of the interesting days due to very bad Verizon internet service.

If any of the members here have or know of someone that uses SATELLITE INTERNET... please let me know whether your service is good or bad.  I may have to have a hybrid of both Satellite and Verizon.  It's nice to live out away from the RAT RACE, but it comes with a cost...LOL

Hey... LOOK AT SILVER GO...

kevsta's picture

Google..

got some work to do yet though boss..

https://www.google.com/search?q=Gold+Prices+and+Where+To+Buy+Gold&pws=0

SEO is very much my bag Turd, PM me if you want some free advice on onsite work, I can immediately see things you can improve very easily.  It's €100(EUR) per hour usually, but free to Turds :)

BagOfGold's picture

dgstage...on the FEMA & zombie drill...

That's old news!...Did you not get the memo?...

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/300978#comment-300978

Stay tuned for an update...soon!!!...

Bag Of Gold

Bollocks's picture

Weeeeeeell

So, Santa was a couple of months out in his 10-year prediction for the price of gold, and he's about a month out in his prediction of the bottom, by his birthday.

That's pretty-damn excellent in my books yes.

(ok, watch it crash to new-lows in 3,2,1...)

ancientmoney's picture

@SRSrocco re: Pascua Lama . . .

From Barrick's quarterly statement (excerpt):

"The company is at an early stage of evaluating an alternative development plan that involves accelerating the development of another smaller pit in Argentina in order to provide a source of ore for initial production. This alternative could provide ore for about six months of production during commissioning and ramp up, following which the mine plan would be dependent on a continuous supply of Chilean ore. Therefore, if resumption of construction activities in Chile, including the pre-stripping, is delayed beyond late 2013, or if such development alternative is determined not to be feasible, there could be a significant change to the mine plan and an impact on the capital cost and production schedule of the project. The company will continue to evaluate all alternatives, in light of the uncertainties associated with the legal and regulatory actions, and the current commodity price environment, including the possibility of suspending the project. As of March 31, 2013, approximately $4.8 billion had been spent. During the quarter, the La Mesa substation in Chile was energized and the southern portion of the 23Kv mine distribution loop completed. As of that date, the tunnel was approximately 80 percent complete. In Argentina, construction of the process plant facility advanced with about 70 percent of structural steel erected; 65 percent of concrete poured; and 55 percent of mass earthworks completed.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Wow!  $4.8 Billion blown.  Some heads must roll somewhere!

libertyforall's picture

@Foxenburg: London gold bars vs. Comex gold bars

You are correct that there is a ounce range on the London gold bars.  The point I was trying to make was that the Comex bars are much different than the London gold bars, which Turd's article got wrong:

"Registered gold: Available for immediate delivery to those who demand bullion. In condition to satisfy a Comex delivery contract. This is actual gold, in London good delivery bar form."

Comex does not have London good delivery gold bars - they are 100 ounce gold bars.

Edward G's picture

Thanks TF!

The last thread was getting quite humorous in its latter stages, thanks to all responsible for that... and to those of a more stuffy or pompous disposition, you will likely not be ejected from here for being boring, but these guys will get you!

I AM NOT TURD ....(or AM I???)

The Watchman's picture

Silver Institute Report

World Silver Supply and Demand (million ounces)
(totals may not add due to rounding)


Supply

  2011 2012
Mine Production 757.0 787.0
Net Government Sales 12.0 7.4
Old Silver Scrap 258.1 253.9
Producer Hedging 12.2 -
Implied Net Disinvestment - -
Total Supply 1039.4 1048.3

Demand

  2011 2012
Fabrication    
Industrial Applications 487.8 465.9
Photography 66.1 57.8
Jewelry 186.5 185.6
Silverware 48.3 44.9
Coins & Medals 118.3 92.7
Total Fabrication 907.1 846.8
Producer De-hedging - 41.5
Implied Net Investment 132.3 160.0
Total Demand 1039.4 1048.3

Mine Supply and Costs

Global silver mine production grew last year to 787.0 Moz, primarily due to by-product output from the lead/zinc sector. Primary silver mine supply grew by 1 percent to account for 28 percent of global silver mine output. Mexico was the world’s largest silver producing country in 2012, followed by China, Peru, Australia and Russia. Primary silver mine cash costs rose to $8.88 an ounce, reflecting higher prices for labor, electricity, and maintenance charges.

Above-Ground Stocks

Supply of silver from above-ground stocks fell by 7.5 percent to 261.3 Moz in 2012, driven by a continued decline in government stock sales, a drop in scrap supply, and the absence of net-producer hedging. Producer de-hedging added 41.5 Moz to the demand equation in 2012. Government stock sales fell a staggering 39 percent to a 15-year low of 7.4 Moz. A continued decline in disposals from Russia and an absence of government stock sales from China and India were the primary factors. A drop in western supplies of recycled jewelry and silverware, combined with further falls from photographic sources, drove silver scrap supply down further by 1.6 percent to 253.9 Moz.

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