More From Morgan

You'll recall a podcast with David Morgan last week. Here's another one that's pretty interesting.

These were sent over by my friend, Dan, at http://www.futuremoneytrends.com. As we start what will surely another volatile week, I thought you'd like to give these a listen.

TF

90 Comments

treefrog's picture

furst!

the early worm gets the bird!

victori's picture

Sprott PSLV selling

Second!

Anybody has any contact to Eric Sprott? Can you ask him why he just sold (on behalf of the sprott foundation) more than 3 million shares of PSLV (about 62.5% of total holdings)?

http://canadianinsider.com/node/7?menu_tickersearch=Sprott+Physical+Silver+Trust+|+PHS

Mudsharkbytes's picture

Stupid…

…slow to respond sluggish beachball spinning computer weenied me out of my 'first'! 

Edit:  looks like it weenied me out of a 2nd too!  Oh well.  

Have a cup on me.

Bacon-Coffee-Cup.jpg

Patrancus's picture

4th

El Gordo's picture

Carpe Diem

Seize the day.  It's out there, you just have to go get it (and not get killed or caught).

Mr. Fix's picture

Good Morning!

smiley

(Fix is Six)

Mr. Fix's picture

Going down?

Soros: “I Don’t Expect Gold To Go Down”

Q. What is your view on gold?

Soros: That’s a complicated question. It has disappointed the public, because it is meant to be the ultimate safe haven. But when the euro was close to collapsing in the last year, actually gold went down, because if people needed to sell something, they could sell gold. Therefore they sold gold. So gold went down together with everything else. Gold was destroyed as a safe haven, proved to be unsafe. Because of the disappointment, most people are reducing their holdings of gold. But the central banks will continue to buy them, so I don’t expect gold to go down. If you have the prospect of a crisis, you will have occasional flurries or jumps. So gold is very volatile on a day-to-day basis, no trend on a longer-term basis. 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-08/soros-“i-don’t-expect-gold-go-down”

 
tmosley's picture

@Turd What's with the "M" on

@Turd

What's with the "M" on the hat/logo now?

marakai's picture

Woo Hoo

could it be top ten again ?

¤'s picture

You can almost feel the momentum building: Imminent?

Trust in Gold Not Bernanke as U.S. States Promote Bullion

Trust in Gold Not Bernanke as U.S. States Promote Bullion Tender

Simon Dawson/Bloomberg

In Utah, officials haven’t yet figured out how to accept gold and silver for tax payments -- though some residents have asked to pay that way.

Distrust of the Federal Reserve and concern that U.S. dollars may become worthless are fueling a push in more than a dozen states to recognize gold and silver coins as legal tender.

Lawmakers in Arizona are poised to follow Utah, which authorized bullion for currency in 2011. Similar bills are advancing in Kansas, South Carolina and other states.

The measures backed by the limited-government Tea Party movement are mostly symbolic -- you still can’t pay for groceries with gold in Utah. They reflect lingering dollar concerns, amplified by the Fed’s unconventional moves in recent years to stabilize the economy, said Loren Gatch, who teaches politics at the University of Central Oklahoma.

“The legislation is about signaling discontent with monetary policy and about what Ben Bernanke is doing,” said Gatch, who studies alternative currencies at the Edmond, Oklahoma-based school. “There is a fear that the government, or Bernanke in particular and the Federal Reserve, is pursuing a policy that will lead to the collapse of the dollar. That’s what is behind it.”

Bernanke has pushed interest rates to near zero since the 18-month recession that began in December 2007. The Fed said in March it would continue buying $85 billion in securities each month in a program known as quantitative easing that has ballooned its assets beyond $3 trillion and is aimed at keeping long-term borrowing costs low to support economic growth.

Tame Inflation

Consumer prices rose just 1.3 percent in February from a year earlier, according to an inflation measure favored by the Fed. That was below the central bank’s 2 percent target and compares with occasional bouts of more-than 10 percent increases in the 1970s and early 1980s.

Bets that inflation would pick up because of economic- stimulus measures helped fuel a 78 percent jump in gold since December 2008. The dollar’s rise to less than 1 percent below a one-year high set in July and monthly increases of about 2 percent or less in the U.S. consumer price index have curbed demand for bullion. Since reaching a record $1,923.70 an ounce in 2011, gold prices have fallen and are near a bear market.

Gold futures for June delivery fell 1.2 percent last week, to $1,575.90 an ounce on the Comex in New York, after touching $1,539.40 April 4, a 10-month low for a most-active contract.

Trust in Gold Not Bernanke as U.S. States Promote Bullion Tender

Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg

The Utah Precious Metals Association, established after passage of the 2011 law to advocate for the use of gold and silver coins, has established a pilot program in which members can make deposits that are held in gold and access money using a bill pay service.

Texas Depository

In Texas, lawmakers are considering a measure supported by Republican Governor Rick Perry to establish the Texas Bullion Depository to store gold bars valued at about $1 billion and held in a New York bank warehouse. The gold is owned by the University of Texas Investment Management Co., or Utimco, which took delivery of 6,643 bars of the precious metal in 2011 amid concern that demand for it would overwhelm supply.

The proposed facility would also accept deposits from the public, and would provide a basis for a payments system in the state in the event of a “systemic dislocation in a national and international financial system,” according to the measure.

Should Texas take such a step, it would offer sovereign backing for deposits and make buying and storing gold easier, said Jim Rickards, senior managing director at Tangent Capital Partners LLC in New York and author of “Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis.” He said the coin measures, while impractical, have symbolic value.

“We are seeing a distinct movement back to a world where gold is considered money,” Rickards said......(cont.)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-08/trust-in-gold-not-bernanke-as-u...

__________________

B. Bernanke: "QE is necessary....the benefits outweigh the costs." Jackson Hole ~ 8/31/12
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
SpeakEasy,NewsTicker,iCandy-Vids http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forums/frivolity-forum

Strongsidejedi's picture

Re: Soros and gold

Whenever this guy starts talking, six months later we find out he's talking the opposite of his investment move.

My guess is that the guy is buying like crazy and wants more.

So, he went out to the media to talk down gold so he can seize more of the "public" gold.

He's a big contrast with Jim Rogers.

pforth's picture

Not feeling good.....

As per cartel standard practice, Gold and Silver have been capped since they opened last night and are slowly being bled down.  If the capping is allowed to continue, we can expect a waterfall downwards to bring us back to the lows within 24 hours.  I hope I'm wrong, but I've seen this pattern so many friggen times..... and the cartel does NOT want two up days in a row.

¤'s picture

Yencredible: Breeches 99 per USD Overnight

heyJoe's picture

M on Hat

Looks like the Michigan logo.  Championship bball game tonight.  Turd is a Cornhusker and Big Ten fan.  I''m a long suffering Illini.

silver66's picture

Views on PM stocks and bullion

from a PM Fund manager and an economist

Just received this e-mail on my terminal, thought I would share as this would give you an idea of institutional thinking on gold, silver and mining stocks

Gold Price Corrections

  • Bull market as a whole, with seven corrections over 10%, with the largest in 2008 (19%)
  • The technical picture – a broad sideways pattern, since late 2011 & over last 6 months there has been a downward trend in this price
  • Seasonal factors: first half of calendar year is generally negative, with the second half experiencing forceful swings for the last four months

Bullish Factors in the Outlook

  1. Global debt crisis has many years to run
    • Monetary policy cannot be tightened quickly/easily
    • Most countries have excessive debts, with over 90% debt to GDP à PIIGS
    • Government choices
      1. Renege on promises
      2. Cut other services
      3. Raise taxes
      4. *Accept a “depression” – added after he saw the situation in Cyprus, as there was nothing in this resolution that was positive news for gold
      5. Print more money – the bottom line, as the Fed balance sheet has blown up, ECB balance sheet has declined
    • Gold rises and falls with FX liquidity
  2. Central banks will continue buying gold
    • FX reserves are “excessive” and need to be diversified
  3. Investment demand will remain elevated
    • ETFs and Asian market deregulation will drive demand
    • Five major ETFs: Johannesburg Gold, Aus Gold, UK GBS, SPDR Gold*(50% of Total, Bloomberg), iShares
  4. Gold is not “expensive”
    • Not on historical comparisons
    • NASDAQ & Silver were bubbles, this gold price movement is rather pedestrian in comparison and not a bubble by Martin’s observation
  5. The commodity price cycle will run for years
    • Cycles run for many years (BRIC & debt), shortest gold cycle lasted 10 years
    • In all cycles…you can get a significant correction before things continue to carry on
  6. Global imbalances require dollar devaluation
    • Currency wars are boosting the dollar instead
  7. Mine supply is not rising significantly (geopolitical)
    • “Market supply” is reduced as CB’s buy more gold…Demand cannot rise when supply does not rise…and prices must rise to ration demand to the available supply.

Bearish Factors in the Outlook

  1. Global liquidity contracts instead
    • QE ends – exit strategies – rising real interest rates
    • Gold declines on the back of declining liquidity
  2. Global economy remains very sluggish
    • Europe accepts a “depression”, weak US growth
    • Asia weak, commodity demand is subdued
    • General trend towards disinflation and deflation
    • Gold declines in recession – before stimulus
  3. The US dollar continues to rise
    • Against the euro – currency wars, most are designed to have currency fall…
    • A firm dollar is not usually good for gold
  4. Investors turn to equities
    • Investors turn away from gold
    • Equities can be competition for gold investment..from time to time the correlation is negative or positive...in 2011 this was positive as money was infused into the system (Treasury, equity and gold prices picked up)…peak in price of gold comes together with the bottom of the S&P... now conversion
  5. Gold is sold as a liquidity of last resort
    • Hardship sales of gold – official and private
    • The PIIGS hold over 3000 tonnes of gold, we have been concerned about Italy for years, & Europe collectively ahs more gold than the US


Rob Cohen

Gold’s Relative Price: Gold has gained in purchasing power over other hard assets.

Gold Equities – What is happening in the precious metals sector?

  • Have suffered as a result of:
    • Risk off in equity markets – risk premiums on the rise (Herd mentality)
    • Misperception that gold should rise and costs should not (lag in non-energy costs gives illusion of rising costs while gold price is falling)
      • FX costs (hedging components), energy & fuel related costs, steel & chemicals, labor & equipment maintenance and parts replacement
    • Management teams continue to drop cut-off grades at mines while extending mine life – market more focused on current profit metrics
    • Recent M&A activity generally falls under market criticism regardless of quality of transaction
    • Management teams working on projects with IRRs that often are too close to company’s cost of capital – industry focus should be exclusively on high (>30%) IRR projects
  • What we see likely happening over the next 3-5 years
    • Resolution to debt crisis in Europe ad US
    • Geopolitical tensions likely to rise
    • Currency weakness throughout the world will drive investors back to gold and other hard assets
    • A recovery in gold equities will take hold as valuations return to more normal levels
  • Gold Equities Undervalued
    • TSX gold producers trading at discounts to gold
    • Price to NAV collapsing to low values for senior producers (trading at discounts to gold, but still below average)
    • P/E values are at low levels, and Sector undervalued on EBITDA values as well!
    • Junior mining hit hard – value to mkt. cap
    • Cash margins remain strong despite cost uptick

Dynamic Strategic Gold Class

  • This fund was launched because Gold Equities do outperform the commodity, but admittedly not as of late:

  • Half of the equity fund is in fact in development companies, working mines, but may be out of favour in this market environment with liquidity constraints of the stock
    • Mitigates sector volatility
    • Construct of the two funds;
      • DPMF – this fund does stratify across entire sector, only holds index components in 40% of fund, concentrated:
        • 69% in top-ten holdings: Perseus 11.7%, New Gold 7.7%, Silver Lake (AUS) 7.2%
        • 45% in NA, 25% in West Africa, absence of SA, DRC, Russia exposure (erratic)
      • DSGC – 50-53% of Bullion, 18-19% is small caps
  • SUMMARY
    • Sell-off in equities is unprecedented and overdone
    • While relative margins have fallen somewhat, absolute margins are still more robust than they have been years ago
    • Liquidity of sector decreases with market capitalization leading to large performance dispersion due to massive herd mentality to exit the sector
    • The trend should reverse – question is when?

Questions for Robert and Martin

  • Rob: Technical Information with regards to the gold equity markets & recovery
    • Good point of discussion is the observance of hard assets, ie. Gold to oil ratio is correct with current prices, sees gold as a clean form of currency and stability, confusion revolves around a period of rapid debasement
    • There is great strength in the broader market, which could be an illusion due to monetary reflation
  • ETFs and Gold Price Affect
    • Martin: when you buy a gold ETF, the institutional arrangement is straight-forward as bullion must be bought for placement in the vault so that there are equal gold o/s as is kept in asset vault, and must be settled…there is an immediate demand
    • Robert: gold ETFs are not stock participants, like the auction process of the company…our internal answer to the ETF is the DSGC, as this has been a popular product with good asset class holdings within and not be subject to the extreme stock market volatility since 2008

Silver66

Strongsidejedi's picture

@DPH (DPRK/NorKor story)

DPH,

I've appreciated your posting of stories from the general media.  In this area of California, you can only get the latest "celebrity" news.  News of a macroecon or geopolitical nature are harder to find than gold nuggets in the dirt.  After reviewing the story you posted on your news tick, it occurs to me that a new meme is showing up.  The meme is claiming that China can do very little about DPRK position or misbehavior.  The article's writer was quoting the Chinese leadership in rather vague terms.  The language from Beijing is always double edged with applicability to two interpretations.  The language cited in that story could be used to challenge both the ROK/USA and DPRK in the current situation.

ChiCom does not have much interest in seeing a war on the Korean peninsula.    HK might.  If the ChiCom get weaker in Beijing, the monied interests in HK get stronger politically.  There's also money to be made in the positioning of supplies and equipment in prep for war.

An intriguing story has appeared in the NYTimes (admittedly a paper known to provoke war at times (see history of Spanish-American war and NY Times involvement)).  The NY Times is reporting that the US and ROK military forces have drawn up retalliation plans for measured response to any DPRK military action.  The NYT reporter claims that these plans are in response to DPRK military action over the past years where ROK forces did not respond to the torpedoing of a ROK ship and artillery shelling of a ROK island.

The problem in this NYT article that I see are as follows:

1.  Cooperation between ROK and US forces is obvious with the current joint command exercises occurring.  When the US positions B-1B and F-22 strike packages within sortie range of DPRK (and for that matter Chinese assets), you know that the US is intentionally pre-positioning to respond to the DPRK's public comments.  So, the NYT article is old news.  If there were not any thought out response plans, then the military and political leaders would be totally derelict in duty.

2.  The initial sentence of the story (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/08/world/asia/us-and-south-korea-devise-plan-to-counter-north.html) uses the phrase "plans to respond more forcefully than in the recent past".  Well, as I've stated above, there was NO response previously.  Any response would be more forceful!

One thing that is new in this report is the paragraph on President Obama's decision making.  The NYT reports:

"Mr. Obama, officials say, has ruled out striking at the missiles while they are on their launchers — when they are easiest to destroy — unless there is evidence they are being fitted with nuclear warheads, which intelligence officials doubt North Korea yet possesses."

I have no disagreement with the President here because it is widely believed that the DPRK does not have the ability to build a nuclear warhead.   I would say that the nuclear warhead may not be the most threatening thing to put on the tip of an IRBM.  There are many other packages that could be just as impactful economically and politically.  But, striking NorKor rockets on the launch pad and while sitting in NorKor territory would likely breech armistice agreements that have held the peace for 60 years.

Having said all of this, the NorKor situation is increasingly hot.  The NYTimes story paints a picture of what could (COULD) happen over the next few weeks.

NorKor COULD launch a missile.  The ROK/US forces would likely track the missile, confirm trajectory, and launch ABM countermeasures in the first 5 minutes of the missile's trajectory being tracked.  If the missile is on a trajectory that takes it towards populated areas, the US will be the party faced with the decision to launch ABM countermeasures.

I am guessing that the missile would be programmed to overfly Japanese territory and not ROK.  The NorKor can claim they were testing and only doing scientific research.  The Japanese have no defense systems capable of ABM intercepts.  The US would be faced with the duty to stop the warhead.  If the US launches and intercept is not done, the US looks bad and DPRK has learned how to lob a missile and warhead into US "controlled" airspace.  If the US intercepts and knocks it down, then the US wins but NorKor can claim insult and injury in the global PR game (gee, the mean US has destroyed our precious scientific payload).

The NORK military is in command at this point.  Those old generals in Norkland have never been in a real war like our generals and troops have been for the past ten years.  If the Norks think they can engage in a limited war with the US over DMZ/Panmunjon territory, they're kidding themselves.

So, in final analysis, the NYT claims that the sitting ROK President had made previous statements during campaigns to go after DPRK command and control centers if any hostilities broke out.  My guess is that the ROK and US will do joint action to remove the DPRK military from the battlefield, IF the DPRK strikes ROK or US assets again.

China might position its military on the DPRK border just for this reason.  The ChiCom would want to control the population in DPRK so that they do not have a massive refugee issue on their hands.

If the ROK/US joint military command goes after command and control, the war would be over within a few hours to days.  China would have to be part of any humanitarian relief package.  So, joint occupation of the DPRK zone is likely to be a UN mission.  I'd say China is the nation to pull it off.  The NORK citizens think ROK is the devil.  Chinese forces would be able to enter DPRK and help bring their citizenry to the 21st Century.

SilverSurfers's picture

by the ages

DM spoke of "individual" taste regarding the porportional amount or resource stock v holding metal, also in the contect of long term trends.

GOING WAY OUT ON A LIMB HERE.

the older one is, the less having time to make it all again, and less prone to take chances with available nest eggs. Hence, there should a correlation between the percentage of holding metals and investment in the resource sector, and age. What was not considered is the political desires for using metals as negative feedback to right the ships of state. Hence, also, the more one is interested in politics and the direction of state, also one would tend to hold metals. David, self admitted, old guy, is 50/50. one would think his holding of metal or stocks,  does not appear to be driven by some internal call to right the ship of state, and hence would be more into making pure profits, and not righting the ship of state, which in my view is rather disheartening. The guy is into making money only, which is his individual choice to make.  Also, FEAR, is an internal defense mechanism. He discusses only geo-politics in a sense of gov confiscation, not running for the hills and perparing, and again not into focused there. Currently, an old guy, so driven, im about 2/3 metal and 1/3 stocks. So, much age AND much politics and less FEAR. It Appears to be the correlation of drivers, regarding that individual taste to hold metal vis a vis stocks, AGE, POLITICS, and FEAR.

but as always, YOU MAKE THE CALL.

Strongsidejedi's picture

mining asteroids?

http://www.newsmax.com/newswidget/US-SCI-Capturing-Asteroid/2013/04/05/id/498109

This story is actually pretty interesting.  It suggests a mission where a Near Earth Asteroid is identified and brought "near the moon" for future analysis.

This is an interesting idea, but Newsmax probably missed the key point in the mission.  If you bring a Near Earth Asteroid to a libration point, that asteroid could be mined, analyzed, etc.  You just have to pick the right object to take to the libration point.

For those who are unfamiliar with libration points, there are five points around the Earth-Moon system where a mass is relatively locked into that point due to the equality of gravitational force between the earth and moon.  When you "park" an object at that point, the object tends to stay locked into position.

Provided that you do have the capability to convert a near-earth asteroid into a libration point, the asteroid's mass and resources could also be the start of future development of those libration points for human use.

This is pie in the sky, but for the purposes of our government and banking system, what's wrong with that?

If you actually piled up 16 trillion in FRN's, that stack would go to libration point itself.

2x2's picture

ok here we go

back down. Like Friday never happened. Back to 1550 by the middle of the week. Sub 27 today.

SilverSurfers's picture

Question

for you peace quys,

ME and NoKo are different, to the extend NoKo does not have an ability to control the worlds energy supplies, a HUGE reason that we take a wait and see approach.

USS ALABAMA, Crimson Tide .....

When would you strike, 3 stage take off by therma detection, or would that be just to late? Surely, Its a stuff call, and would BHO simply run from any decision thereof. donno but have an educated guess.

classic confrontation, none better, a good refresher on command.

Oh, start tippin the sec of state, its unbarable when he losses it. lol,

just kidden OF COURSE. :)

ctob's picture

No inflation

re: DPH article

"Bets that inflation would pick up because of economic- stimulus measures helped fuel a 78 percent jump in gold since December 2008. The dollar’s rise to less than 1 percent below a one-year high set in July and monthly increases of about 2 percent or less in the U.S. consumer price index have curbed demand for bullion. Since reaching a record $1,923.70 an ounce in 2011, gold prices have fallen and are near a bear market."

Inflation, as the man on the street sees it, is unlike to pickup due the banks holding onto the Excess Reserves:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Excess_reserves#Interest_on_excess_reserves

The Fed pays the banks to hold their reserves and this is why M2 and the Monetary Base are so disconnected.   Until there is some break down in the arrangement don't expect gold price to take off due to inflation.

This however is not understood by any in the press besides Zerohedge.

Pining 4 the Fjords's picture

TFMR hijacked by Michigan grad!

Nice prank, admin!  The hat logo will not help you in tonight's game though, I suspect.  I don't like either team, so I'm just rooting for a good game.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Yes, of course...

MODERATOR

The fundamental reasons for the rally on Friday have been completely invalidated today <sarc>

Momos in control until they're not.

Response to: ok here we go
2x2's picture

here's the worst bit

I was actually genuinely surprised when gold was hovering down 4 or 5 bucks for today. When it suddenly dropped the additional 5, I wasn't surprised at all.

I'm sure I'm not the only one with these reactions to the 'market'!

¤'s picture

sideways

Very placid market today....so far.

Things will get interesting once the BOJ unleashes $12.2 billion USD per week on bonds starting this week.  Probably tonight is my guess.

$12.2 BILLION PER WEEK!!!

That'll cause a ripple.

Weasel Tracker's picture

5 Ounce ATB Coins

April 8th and no sign of ATB coins. Looks like the mint is struggling to produce them?

Thank you for your inquiry.  We apologize for our delayed response.

Release dates for the 2013 America the Beautiful Five Ounce Silver Bullion Coins™ and the 2013 America the Beautiful Five Ounce Silver Uncirculated Coins™ have not been determined.  We will announce the availability of these coins when this information has been finalized.

You can stay informed about our product releases by signing up to receive product notifications through the United States Mint's e-mail services.  To sign up, please visit http://www.usmint.gov/email/?action=newsletters.  You can also follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Pinterest!

AlexCojones's picture

Maggie Mentioned in Last Thread

The Larger than Life and Death of Maggie Thatcher was mentioned in last thread, and also prominently over at ZH, causing huge amount of ruffled feathers there.

Recall the war in Falklands? Maggie almost became a footnote in history and crossed her Rubicon.

According to Mark Gaffney: 'At the time of the Falklands war the Argentine air force possessed only five Exocets, yet managed to sink two ships. With enough of them, the Argentineans might have sunk the entire British fleet, and won the war.'

Wars: Easy to get into, hard to get out. Perhaps our Navy admirals are thinking the same thing. Hope so.

The Sunburn - Iran's Awesome Nuclear Anti-Ship Missile

Missile-attacking-aircraft-carrier.bmp

¤'s picture

Yes....you can have your camel and eat it to!

Sometimes you just have to laugh.

I burst out laughing when I saw this. Thank goodness coffee sipping wasn't happening at the time.

Francois Hollande's Gift Camel Killed And Eaten In Mali

When we said several months ago, that the French military incursion in Mali would have a hilarious, if sad ending, we didn't quite have this in mind but it will do. It turns out that after the French "liberation" of Mali, French president Francois Hollande, already the most unpopular president in French history and last week's Cahuizac tax-evasion affair hardly doing much to boost his popularity, was awarded a two-humped (there is some debate if it had one or two humps) camel as a present for driving away the "evil" Al Qaeda and various other "evil" extremists. Sadly for Hollande, and for animalistic symbolism as indicative of French foreign policy, said camel was just killed and "put in a stew". And it only goes downhill from here.

 
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