Gold and Silver pre-BLSBS

Well, here we are. The moment of truth. It's all on the line. This is the place. This is the time.

There's so much going on that I don't even know where to start. Frankly, I don't think I'll allow myself to start because, if I do, I'll likely end up typing for the next couple of hours and I don't have that kind of time, at least not today. So let's summarize a few things, instead. (In random order)

  • The ECB leaves rates unchanged but claims that the "economic risks are to the downside". No shit. You don't say?
  • The Bank of Japan, in their infinite wisdom, has decided to print the equivalent of $200B/month or $2.4T/ year in a desperate attempt to create inflation and "growth". Shrewd.
  • Initial jobless claims came in much, much higher today than anyone expected. This is the fifth or sixth economic data point this week that has been lousy and a "disappointment".
  • The GLD continues to be drained, falling again yesterday by 2.7 mts to 1,206.22 and now down 10.64% year-to-date.
  • The situation with the N-Kos is growing more surreal with each passing day. I'm 99% sure that this "crisis" will end just like all the others over the past 60 years. However, it's all so odd. It's almost as if the U.S. is baiting the N-Kos to act. Maybe they hope the Lil' Kim will do something out of a desperate attempt to save face and, after doing so, a different regime will take over, one that is more palatable to the entire world? Hell, I don't know. Like I said, it's getting more surreal each day.
  • The metals were getting ready to take another pounding today but the claims numbers forced a retreat/rethinking of the spec shorts. Yesterday, though, had a capitulative quality as we actually saw both metals OI decrease. With no follow-trough today, maybe the worst is behind us.
  • I'd still put the chances of a brief break of support at 50/50. In fact, I'm kind of pulling for it to happen. As mentioned yesterday, a quick drop through $1525 and $26 would be The Final Capitulation that would suck in all the remaining shorts as well as clean out any selling associated with the cornucopia of sell-stops below those levels. 

So we'll see what happens tomorrow. With sentiment as lousy as it is and the spec shorts so clearly in charge, it's going to take an horrific jobs number tomorrow in order for us to see a major squeeze. The most likely scenario would be a number that, at first glance, doesn't look too shabby. As is often the case, the initial move would then be a headfake. Maybe gold immediately drops to $1525-1535 and silver plunges below $26.50 and toward $26. At that point, they reverse as cooler heads digest the report and notice worsening internals like the participation rate. Price bounces on the backs of The Greatest Fool shorts and we actually end up with an Outside Reversal Day to mark The Bottom. For an ORD tomorrow we would need to bottom below today's low of $1539.40 and then, preferably, close above today's high of $1559.30.

As mentioned frequently here over the past several weeks and reiterated these past 48 hours, we could see The Final Washout, too. Maybe the NFP number exceeds 225,000 and the rate falls to 7.5%. In that case, we might get our Washout. Either way for those addicted gamblers out there, tomorrow promises to be a day of significance. For the rest of us, tomorrow and/or early next week look to be terrific opportunities to once again add to our stacks at outrageously discounted prices. (Please click the HardAssetsAlliance link or visit the TurdMart Metals page when doing so winkhttp://www.tfmetalsreport.com/precious-metals-store

Here are the best two charts I can give you. Note that, if I'm right about long-term support holding, the the metals are poised to finally close out these current downtrends and begin new UPtrends, instead.

Lastly, we should note that today marks the 45th anniversary of the murder of Dr. King. Look, I know he was a philanderer and he possessed many of the same weaknesses as all of us, but his contributions toward the advancement of equality and freedom need to be respected and appreciated. Though taken too soon, he clearly lived a life of meaning and significance.

Have a great evening and overnight and get ready for a wild ride on Friday.

TF

250 Comments

Mammoth's picture

For DPH

Dark Purple Haze - this Ounce is for you!

Cheers,

Mammoth

Mr. Fix's picture

Another quiet day…

And the world hasn't ended yet.

Happy happy, joy joy.smiley

United States is baiting North Korea, but not to change their regime, but to solidify the power of our regime.

How many of you knew that if just one little nuke "gets through" Obama's shields, martial law is automatic, and   already required by law. This is the intended outcome, the United States (Obama) does not give a rats ass about North Korea.

wouldyoubelieve...'s picture

thanks...

info here is 1st rate, looks like things are stabilizing right now, hmmm, cash in hand, what to do, what to do

fats's picture

aw, cmon

i wanted to drop the duece!

also, i just posted on the last thread that i pulled the trigger on a sleeve of buffalos while spot was at 26.69 

(crosses fingers)

please be the bottom!

Eric_2's picture

...

Top 5!
 
bought another 100 ozs silver last week. wish I'd waited but don't think it matters in the long run.  Keep stacking!
SilverSurfers's picture

Turd is on it

You don't say? On the floor, barely got past the first line. Keep it fun, way funny.

Turd is on it!! top tendurd again.

so, 1) JMP et al tease their short, but actually lowering COT shorts as, 2) bullion drops as commerical/hedgie/SmSpec jump on short sides, hot money 3) COT flips bullion banks going long as commercials dropping shorts, 4) bullion moves as the commerical/hedgies/SmSpec get wiped out again, 5) FED starts recapturing loan bullion, 6) JPM et al go heavy on the long side, we get a move, 7) laws then allow pension into the gold space, and off to the races, 10,000 gold, BB is history 8) mon and pop jump on silver, gold 20,000/oz, 9) state authorized real money bills, 9) FRN is dying hard 0.1 on the dollar index, 10) 0.01 on the dollar index, the fed's allow real coinage in circulation, the bi-currency world and resurface of the gold/silver certs issue by FED, 11) The FRN is abandoned back to gold/silver coinage and certs only. 

before the decade is out. it could happen .... stay tuned, keep stacking.

Sinclair is watching turdville, and following the logic, Turd is a world point man.

In The News Today

My Dear Friends,

Today in Japan leadership said it is the goal of the central bank to double QE In Europe. Draghi said they will do whatever is required.

Now if the US economic figures move from the flat line to down the dollar will promptly return to .7900 and below. Gold will then seek a new high.

Sincerely,
Jim

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Must be a loyal reader of JSMineset and listener of King World News.

Gold Trader: “Once This Bottom Is Formed, We May Never See Gold At These Levels Ever Again.”
April 4, 2013 | By Tekoa Da Silva

ltcolkilgore's picture

Surreal

That pretty much nails it...crying

sur·re·al

/səˈriəl, -ˈril/  Show Spelled [suh-ree-uhl, -reel] 

adjective
 
having the disorienting, hallucinatory quality of a dream; unreal; fantastic
 
 
Seventh by the way...
Eric_2's picture

Top 5!bought another 100 ozs

Dup post doesn't count!

meegoreng1's picture

SILVER IS THE ONLY WEAPON WE HAVE AGAINST THE EE.

STAY AWAY FROM ALL PAPER GAMES! Don't play the EE (Evil Entity) games in any form. That's what they want. Do the exact opposite of what they want you to do.

Stay away from Comex, LBMA, PM stocks (they are fully compromised),ETFs and others! Sorry Turd, I know you encouraging for Andy's Army but I say do NOT play any of their paper games. If we as PM bugs, can't even do that, we will surely lose this war.

The EE can manipulate this as long as physical demand does not overwhelm their paper shorts! No other event will change their formula. This has been going on for decades, and it will go on and on if we don't know how to battle them.  

ONLY buy physical and silver if you must. That is our only weapon folks. It is a fact that the amount of physical silver is dwindling. Not so for gold. They can manipulate everything except  the demand of physical silver.

AND PLEASE, PLEASE STAY  AWAY FROM ALL THEIR PAPER TRADING GAMES!

Mammoth's picture

Mammoth Silver Round

A close second to the DPH Silver Round up above...

Groaner's picture

@Turd

With all that gold positive data you covered piling up and today's Inflation program from Japan until there is no tomorrow, high jobless claims, we get a spike up in gold with 10,000 contracts then they smack it right back down..

I was surprised to see it the metals come back later.

My point is, the metals should have really took off today. 

So, I think they will do the same thing tomorrow.. Probably get that nice spike up, how much who knows, then the good old smack right back down.  unless?

It seems to me with this Rigged market, it will go up when they want it to. Disgusting 

Plus the USD was down almost 80 ticks from the high..

The Watchman's picture

China Is On Holiday For The Rest of Week

Public Holiday Calendar

Qingming

Apr. 4 or 5

1 day

Apr. 4
(Apr. 4 - 6 off)

Zoltan's picture

And It's Gone...

April 04, 2013
1 m 0.0070% +0.2370
2 m 0.0286% +0.2686
3 m 0.0471% +0.3071
6 m -0.2900% +0.0200
1 y 0.3847% +0.7347

New record ND daily volume (5.7 million).  Weekly volume charts for past two weeks new records.

Even the TSX Gold index is up 5 to 235 (although it was 400 ouch).

Lots of paper and banksters holding this beach ball under water.

Interesting times.

Z

achmachat's picture

Zoltan and volumes

whoa! it's not only record volumes... but these volumes SMOKE everything that was before AWAY!!

the daily volumes (for silver) since march 25th are now at around 5.5 million (netdania units) whereas a good day, before, was 0.8 million (netdania units) even on the ramp up to almost 50 USD.

this is crazy!!! CRAZY!

kingboo's picture

I pulled the trigger......

Yup....had to. Maples delivered to my door for 29 each? How could i pass on that... So, needless to say....i'm calling the bottom here.... Surprise surprise.

The Watchman's picture

True

MainStreamMedia_Puppets.jpg

Texas Sandman's picture

d&mn goldmart

Order placed the 16th paid by bank wire and still waiting on my  gold maple leafs.

Just hope they're not a scam.

Wait... Maybe apmex wasn't so bad after all!!  (Just kidding cool)

S Roche's picture

@Zoltan & Achmachat

The ND data suppliers changed their "units" late 2011 in silver & gold. Silver increased in volume, gold decreased. I have screen shots from ND showing that more gold than has ever been mined in human history was traded in August 2011, from memory 5.5 billion ounces. They changed it and now it doesn't look so special.

Anyhoo, good find. On the strength of that I just "bought" a shit-ton of spot silver...see what happens.

Pining 4 the Fjords's picture

Mammoth- really fine work!

I'd buy both of those coins!  The thousand-ounce Mammoth coin would be the ultimate BTFD vehicle-  "Couldn't pass up these prices... So I bought a dozen coins".   Nice.

achmachat's picture

S Roche

that's why I make sure to call it "netdania units"

it's only good for a qualitative idea, not a quantitative measure.

No need to go back to late 2011 to see that volume has suddenly EXPLODED, no matter what they measure it in, be it "trades", "contracts", "ounces", "barrels" or "quackeldicks".

Xty's picture

Speaking of units of measurement

it strikes me as appropriate that paper should come in reams:

ream 1  (remacr.gifm)
n.
1. A quantity of paper, formerly 480 sheets, now 500 sheets or, in a printer's ream, 516 sheets.
2. A very large amount. Often used in the plural: reams of work to do.

[Middle English reme, from Old French reime, from Old Spanish resma, from Arabic rizmabundle, from razamato bundle; see rzm in Semitic roots.]

ream 2  (remacr.gifm)
tr.v. reamedream·ingreams
1. To form, shape, taper, or enlarge (a hole or bore, for example) with or as if with a reamer.
2. To remove (material) by this process.
3. To squeeze the juice out of (fruit) with a reamer.

[Possibly from Middle English remento make room, variant of rimen, from Old English rymacr.gifman; see reuschwa.gif- in Indo-European roots.]
 

Getting reamed by the reams of reams!

The Watchman's picture

Gary Savage Makes Sense

I had the chance yesterday to speak with technical gold trader Gary Savage, publisher of the “Smart Money Tracker”, daily gold market commentary and trading service, which has outperformed most of the world’s hedge funds in 2011 and 2012.

It was a powerful conversation as Gary commented on the panic selling we’ve seen over the last few days, sharing his view that “once this bottom is formed, we may never see gold at these levels ever again.”

Despite continued and relentless selling, Gary commented that, “Gold isn’t in a bear market, it’s [just] been in a consolidation since the top of September 2011. If you pull up a 13-year chart, it shows that gold is not in a bear market, not even close. The miners however, are in bear market, and they have been for 19 months now, and they’ve lost 50%. That’s about an average cyclical bear market…[So] I think the miners are [primed] to bottom along with gold at this yearly cycle low, which I don’t think occurred today, but I think we’re within a day or two of that final bottom.

When asked about valuations on mining stocks at these levels, Gary said that, “The valuations in the miners are absurd. The gold XAU ratio is higher than it’s ever been before in history. This is coming at a time where the miners have gotten the hint…management is cleaning up their act…[and] the sector is doing what it needs to do to turn itself around. [But] since the trend is down, people just invent reasons for why the miners should continue to go down. Eventually rationality is going to return, people will recognize that mining stocks are not going bankrupt, and they’re just too insanely cheap.”

In terms of the big picture following this grueling correction, Gary said, “We definitely started a [panic selling climax] today in my opinion. The volume on GDX and NUGT was just through the roof, [but] we’re close [to a bottom]…If you have the emotional ability to buy at those bear market bottoms, that’s where the really big money is made…[and] once this [bottom] is formed…we will probably never ever see gold back below this level again.”

As a final call, Gary concluded by saying, “The gold bull cannot end until the fundamentals change, and they have not changed, they’ve only gotten better…[So] I think we’re about to leave these levels behind forever.”

Dagney Taggart's picture

So I was at lunch today thinking.....

What has changed in the world economy and geopolitical comedy show over the last year that would be bearish for precious metals?

I can't think of anything. I really can't.

Although I do live in the real world where when one ignores physics and math, expensive structures fail and real people die. Maybe that's the problem.

¤'s picture

Finally!

I've been trying to periodically log-on today (and sign-off / weird stuff) while it showed me logged off on the main page and then logged in once inside a thread but unable to post.

But whatever the case might be...good luck to TF's tech staff with all of this.

Mammoth....I'm liking it!  Put me down for 50 Jimi's

Texas Sandman's picture

falling commodity prices

consistent with deflationary economic calamity.

and you'd see that before the calamity became apparent.  funny how markets work that way.

But oil & stocks aren't supporting that view.

FISD's picture

Total disconnect with the miners today

Sometime around mid-morning all the red went green and even though the actual metals didn't follow suit there was a big gain in lots of the silver and gold juniors as well as GDX and GDXJ. People say the miners lead out of the bottom. Today's action adds to the insanity. At least it's insanely green today. 

Missiondweller's picture

@Dagney

Not only that. The fundamentals for gold have only gotten better.

Better than I could have imagined. I mean could you have imagined the Fed buying 90% of all new Treasury issues just two years ago? Or increasing their balance sheet by $1 Trillion per year? Or the EU confiscating deposits from Cyprus banks?

Not me. I could not have imagined it and if you had told be that two years ago and asked me where the gold price should be I would have guessed way the heck over $2000 per ounce!

¤'s picture

In the ballpark

I wrote the following post yesterday a.m....

To QE or not QE....that is the QuEstion

...and today I just came across part 2 of KWN's interview with Former Assistant of the US Treasury, Dr. Paul Craig Roberts where he basically says the same thing.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/4/4_Former_US_Treasury_Official_-_The_Fed_Is_Facing_A_Wipeout.html

At least I'm in the ballpark with some views and not swinging at air. 

When they decide to (or need to) stop or pullback on QE (publicly at least) they'll use the money already in the monetary base...your money.

It's good business in life to always use other people's money (OPM) when possible if it makes sense to do so.

In the future they'll do just that. What's to stop them? (sickening to write)

AlexCojones's picture

Japan 2.4 Trillion New Money? Reminds me of Another $2.3 T

But thankfully that was all forgotten the Very Next Day....

rtabit's picture

@achmachat

Your only looking at spot volume (I think), futures volume is normal/low, I'd think more people trade futures but I don't know.  Here is weekly volume for futures from earlier today when I had this same conversation with someone else, not sure why spot volume is so large.

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