The Increasing Likelihood
We must admit that it is looking increasingly likely that a washout is coming. Previously, I had only put this at one chance in four. After these past three days, we must now consider this a 50/50 probability, at a minimum.
Remember, this selloff isn't totally unexpected. This is from Monday:
"As predicted on Thursday, we are seeing quite a bit of price shenanigans today. Expect this to continue. In fact, even though I just laid out for you the extraordinary case for buying silver, I will not be surprised one bit if price falls toward $27 sometime this week. If silver can be jammed down and closed below the $27.92 low of March 1, more weakness will materialize as a new crop of even greater fools parade into the short side. Given the near certainty of the impending, sharp rally, perhaps we should all be rooting for this to happen. I mean, buying at $27 is even better than buying at $28, right?"
And this is from last Wednesday:
The Forces of Darkness were finally able to break silver down through $28.60 overnight after successfully raiding price at about 2:00 am NY time. Stops were triggered and price fell all the way to near $28.20 before recovering and I have $28.62 as I type. Clearly, this recovery needs to hold. At a minimum, silver needs to stay above $28.40 because if it falls again and The Bad Guys are able to take out the March 1 lows of $27.92, we'll then see a drop all the way to the bottom of its 18-month range, near $27. Yikes!
Now, that said, it is looking increasingly likely that the goal of all of this is to drop gold through $1525-1535. This would:
- Trigger all sorts of long-term sell stops for The Cartels to cover into.
- Allow Maria Headiromo to proclaim that "gold is officially in a bear market", down over 20% from its alltime highs of August 2011.
I've used Thomas Paine's "Common Sense" metaphorically several times over the past 18 months and here we are again. Perhaps you would be well-served by going back and reading this post from last November:
Perhaps all you really need to review is the closing paragraph:
"Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph...
So, again, I implore you: Do not lose faith and do not suffer from doubt. The end of The Great Keynesian Experiment is indeed upon us and you must continue to prepare accordingly. Do not be swayed by the day-to-day trading of the Comex nor the incessant noise and disinformation supplied by the financial media. Think for yourself. Study the past and the present, then consider the future. Trust your instincts. Believe in yourself and your ability to lead and inspire. Your family needs you. Your friends need you and Turdville needs you. The future demands leadership at every level and we all have a role to play. I will continue to do my part. Will you?"
No time for summer soldiers and sunshine patriots around here. Your faith is about to be severely tested. Do you have the courage of your convictions or are you easily swayed? Will you succumb to pressure and follow the crowd off the cliff or will you stand tall?
IF the Large Specs run price through $1525, what will you do? Do you have a plan? If silver falls through $26, will you be ready? Again, today's action dramatically increases the likelihood of The Final Washout. You have been warned. Prepare accordingly.