Updated Gold and Silver Charts

A busy morning combined with another brief outage has left me behind the eight-ball again.

Therefore, here are some charts. Maybe another post later today with extra analysis of all that's going on. One quick thing, though...How is it possible to institute capital controls when your banks are all closed and, it doesn't matter anyway because they don't have any money regardless? http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-27/cyprus-capital-control-details-revealed

OK, first here's an updated look at gold. After another failed beatdown earlier today, price has rebounded through $1600. This is, of course, good. That said, these daily charts kind of bug me. One thing for certain I don't like: A spike high that is then followed by a rounded, failing double-top. This is rarely a good sign but that's exactly what we have (for the moment) on these charts. Does this imply all hell breaking loose? Of course not and as long as price stays above $1585, all is well. But we must remain cognizant of the risk of a drop back toward the $1550-1560 low of the 18-month range.

The Forces of Darkness were finally able to break silver down through $28.60 overnight after successfully raiding price at about 2:00 am NY time. Stops were triggered and price fell all the way to near $28.20 before recovering and I have $28.62 as I type. Clearly, this recovery needs to hold. At a minimum, silver needs to stay above $28.40 because if it falls again and The Bad Guys are able to take out the March 1 lows of $27.92, we'll then see a drop all the way to the bottom of its 18-month range, near $27. Yikes!

So....how about some good news? Would you like some of that for a change?? On the bright side, I spent some time this morning speaking with our friend, AndyM. He informed me that today saw the largest London allocation of physical gold year-to-date. He also saw an extremely large, tonnage allocation for silver. If you're wondering why price reversed and headed higher today...well, there's your answer. You know, it's odd. It used to be that The Cartel was mainly concerned with long-term management and suppression of price. Recently, though, it seems that they are in a near-panic, managing things not only daily but intra-day. Desperation? Almost certainly. Are we very near the end? Perhaps. All I know is that global physical demand is unrelenting and growing, regardless of the wishes of the BIS and the Bullion Banks. Panic and capitulate if you want but I ain't selling anything.

Further good news emanates from the crude pit. Well...not so good news if you're a consumer who needs $3.xx gas to affordably get to and fro. We watched crude roll over at $98 back in February. When $96 was broken, we looked for $93 and then $89 and it all came to fruition. Now on the way back UP, we've surpassed $93 and have our sites on $96 again. If crude can one again best $96, it will then move on to challenge $98-100 again and, this time, the chances would be very high that it would break through. Why does this matter if you're not trading crude? Because $100+ crude will definitely be supportive of higher metals prices. No doubt about it.

One last thing, I want very badly to begin getting interested in the miners here but I just can't quite pull the trigger yet. GOLD, EXK, AUY, TRX and several others all look interesting here but until the HUI gets back above 375 at a minimum, I'm staying on the sidelines.

Finally, a few days ago I received another "care package" from Ron that included all the stuff that has been sent via snail mail to his office in Texas. There were Christmas cards and letters plus an assortment of silver coins and half-dollars. All of this is very much appreciated so I just wanted to thank those who took the time to send everything along. It means a lot.

Have a great rest of your day!

TF

325 Comments

StevenBHorse's picture

I will fully embarce the shitiness of the Game

Primero.

Miners are cheap and have found a floor, which is helped by their dividends (for the majors).  Sentiment is beyond awful in that sector.  You can buy some juniors for the cash and pp&e on the books.  So you are getting the minerals for free.

wildstylechef's picture

ya

2

Croaker's picture

yes

Turd

Road_Scholar's picture

Third

isn't too bad.  Now time to get out the ruler and review some new charts of the manipulation! 

ruler-karl-addison.jpg

Fat Willie's picture

Wow top 10 - sweet

Thanks Turd

Mr. Fix's picture

I'll take the fifth......

smileyfifth-amendment-cartoon-2.jpg

tobydaniel's picture

The silver chart today is wild!

I guess the COMEX hired on a new chartist/line drawer! lol

A.B.'s picture

Patience is the name of the game now.

Time is the answer of everything. :)))

SIlverbee's picture

Thanks for the update Turd

What I really want to know is when we get out this sideways move and into a sustained UP move?

rl999's picture

Top ten. Bazinga!

China and Brazil sign $30bn currency swap deal

Says they trade about 75bn a year, so this seems pretty big to me.

Mod note- The site has been slow all morning, and while trying to post pics of gear it froze numerous times, kicked me to the saved/cached version once.

vonburpenstein's picture

Man o Man...

...I wonder how much money is consistently being made on these .30-.60 swings on a irregularly regular basis...Doesn't anyone know anyone who knows someone somewhere? Has to be astronomical

Vonburp

A.B.'s picture

If I were a miner.

I would stop selling for couple of months and see the results. It will make a difference in the price of the PM they are mining which will eventually effect the stock price.  

Cottonbelt21's picture

Thorsten Polleit ...

… if interested (as mostly inside view), a view of bank(st)ers / sovereign governments and defaulting banks in the modern era of ‘roving and stationary bandits’ – all grinding through a slow-motion reset IMO … QOTD: ‘the fraudulent banker’

JY896's picture

Slightly off topic - new target for HFT manipulation?

Lucky #7 at time of typing... :-)

I was just thinking, an announcement like this:

"Under a deal announced by the companies today, Buffett’s firm will get Goldman Sachs stock equal to the difference between the average closing price during the 10 trading days before Oct. 1 and the exercise price, multiplied by 43.5 million.[...] The new agreement also means Berkshire is depending on Goldman Sachs stock remaining above $115 in the final 10 trading days of September." -- Berkshire to Pay Nothing to Be Among Top Goldman Sachs Holders

Isn't this an open invitation for GS to hire a shop or two to tank the share price for those few days? Would it NOT be an open invitation to do so in the case of any other investor? Though I have no idea whether sufficient incentive exists for GS to try to minimize the level of shares it hands out... But we are talking about an option exercise deal of $1.5B/10.4M shares at today's prices.

Then again, Uncle Warren might be a 'different animal', just like GS is a different animal:

“I have been privileged to have known and admired Goldman’s executive leadership team since my first meeting with Sidney Weinberg in 1940.” WB via Forbes

ancientmoney's picture

@SIlverbee . . .

"What I really want to know is when we get out this sideways move and into a sustained UP move?:

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

When a miracle happens, and a the unsustainable debt becomes sustainable.

In other words, it isn't gonna happen--not like you wish for (and all of us).

The PMs will be kept down--period.  Nobody (almost) is going to make money trading in paper silver and gold, except those with unlimited fiat at their disposal (JPM, HSBC, etc.).

When the banks are ready, and in silver that means they can no longer afford to lose more physical, then comex trading will be halted, and a new, physical pricing mechanism will come into being.

There will likely be an interlude where nobody knows what the price is, just that it will be very difficult to find any for sale.  Then, a new price at multiples of what we see today will suddenly (it will seem) appear.  My opinion, of course.

RedRiver's picture

Miners

How low do you want the miners to go? waiting for the capitulation at this stage, when I believe it has already occurred, seems cowardly, I would expect some of the better miners to be 10 baggers in the next few years, another few % to the downside will not be material in the rear view mirror. FWIW

indosil's picture

IMAGE

the charts posted by TURD don't get enlarged or open in a new tab/window when we try to click on 'em.......

does the problem persist only with me or is it the same with everyone else??

Irish-Mic's picture

Somebody doth protest too much?

Somebody doth protest too much?  A friend sent me the first link yesterday.  After learning from "business" insiders why gold is irrelevant, I checked out some other scholarly articles by these business insiders.  Three of these in < 24 hours?  I'm none the wiser, but this contrarian likes what he sees.

Cheers.

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-price-of-gold-is-pointless-2013-3

http://www.businessinsider.com/gold-and-silver-bugs-now-tout-bitcoin-2013-3

http://www.businessinsider.com/you-have-to-feel-really-sorry-for-the-gold-and-silver-bulls-today-2013-3

koan's picture

Yup, I'm with @Red on the

Yup, I'm with @Red on the miners - to paraphrase someone recently on here (sorry can't remember who) 'sometimes you just gotta hold your nose and jump right in!'

Groaner's picture

@Irish

You must have all your money safe in a bank in Cyprus then?

ancientmoney's picture

From Stephen Leeb . . . a snippet:

Leeb had this to say regarding gold:  “Gold continues to see a war going on at the $1,600 level.  It is not in the best interest of the West to see gold do any type of move that would increase its exposure as being an alternative currency.

Once gold begins its next magnificent rise and breaks to new all-time highs there will be even more demand for gold and the people in charge of the West know this.  That’s why they are battling so hard to keep the price suppressed.

This latest series of events in Cyprus just shows how desperate Western central planners have become.  They are not letting the markets trade freely because they would reveal the horror of what has just taken place.  But gold will have its day and so will silver.  Just make sure you have physical gold and silver and not paper.”

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Full article at KWN.

SIlverbee's picture

@Ancientmoney

"When the banks are ready, and in silver that means they can no longer afford to lose more physical, then comex trading will be halted, and a new, physical pricing mechanism will come into being."

Is it not possible to empirically establish this moment?

By my rudimentary deductions COMEX has run out of PHYS and I guess anyone who wants more than a million real ozs goes straight to the miner. Where do those who were buyers before MF go for PHYS? Why can't the price be set somewhere else outside of the EE control.  Just need the miners to migrate to a new or legitimate system?

A.B.'s picture

Strange days

As I am writing this yields are down as well as the cross stating that the fear is back. Gold is also confirming this while comfortably trading around 1606 - 1607 area. What seems to be strange is the silver side of the picture. It is struggling around 28.60 - 28.70 area while the trading volumes are extraordinarily high for the last couple of days now. On the charts it is creating always a lower high with the volumes and this do not look good but I believe it is somehow artificial and some people are spending great effort. Additionally whole thing is happening just before the FND which happens to be tomorrow. 

Tomorrow also is a big day for the long awaited banks to start operating if there will not be any "technical difficulties" once again. More importantly rest of the European countries will be watching the show as well. We all know nothing good will come out of this rescue plan but enjoy the show...

On top of all, just now, there are some views with in the Fed about more easing and targeting unemployment at 5.5%. 

Now the question is what else there can be for the PM prices? Looks like it is a perfect storm but the funnel has not touched down yet. Just not yet.

fingers crossed here...  

Fr. Bill's picture

My first grandbaby (Eleanor Louise) will be born today!

Rushing out the door to Austin, car loaded with baby-related stuff.  What fun!

ReachWest's picture

Business Insider

@Irish-Mic: Business Insider is a rag IMO - it's the online version of the 'check-out counter' celebrity focused sensationalist drivel we see in the super-markets. BI loves the current administration, they hate gold and of course they see the economy improving everywhere.

Their articles are shallow and short and are only posted to provide a vehicle to support advertising. For the most part, I have removed them from my bookmarks list.

The typical TFMR thread has one million times more value and breaking news/insight than anything over on Business Insider.

Dr Jerome's picture

When a Euro is not a Euro

That ZH article title reminds me of Orwell's classic line "All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others." why does it not surprise me in retrospect that a pig said that, and that pigs were the EE of that little world.

I don't like to hear that Turd is on the sidelines with miners. I bought GDX in my retirement account a couple of weeks ago. So far so good, but nothing spectacular. Thatparticular account is locked down until I retire or quit or the Feds nationalize it. but it occrred to me that any nationalization plan must be equitable--shares in the new SS system according to how much of your wealth they confiscated (unless the US goes Fascist). Any one else have thoughts on that? 

I wish I had some fiat for this cheap silver. 

hsofiak's picture

@Red on the Miners

Miners at the bottom?  The following fits. Hopefully, it is not a one off anomaly.

Today, SLW did not follow the metal prices down.  There have been days when the %drop in SLW was 6x or more the drop in SLV (proxy for the metal).  Today SLW is green while SLV is red.  Also, SLW share volume  appears to be lower than usual-compare this to the Netdania spot "volume" which looks like it could go for a new daily record.

The Watchman's picture

Bens Plan

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTxBF_qssHonWe9a2jZZ9d

ancientmoney's picture

A few notes to myself . . .

Claims to gold and silver, such as shares in SLV, GLD, certificates of ownership, etc. are all subject to severe risk.

Why?

Those paper claims depend on risky expectations:

1.  The system does not change.  Remember, SLV and GLD can be closed at anytime, for good reason or for no reason.  When that happens, shareholders get paid out in dollars.  Since the TBTF banks control these entities, guess when they will pull the plug?  Yep, right BEFORE comex trading is halted--or on the same weekend.  Everybody gets paid out as of previous Friday close.  Nobody gets rich holding these paper claims.

2.  Counterparties may fail.  If they go bankrupt, you find your place in line, pay expensive legal fees, and hope for the best.

3.  We have a rule of law.  As we saw in MFG, the bankruptcy laws were changed to allow JPM to step in line ahead of MFG's customers--those who actually owned silver and other commodities were displaced due to legal, after-the-fact maneuvering.  Judges helped JPM steal.  So, counting on rule of law is very risky in today's world.

Physical gold and silver, in your own possession is the best way to go.  Could they confiscate?  Sure, they could try.

But, wouldn't it be easier to confiscate paper dollars in brokerage accounts, banks, etc.?  Or, certainly gold and silver held by the ETFs (nicely gathered up for them in one convenient location) would be juicy, low-hanging fruit?

We know boat accidents are reported every single day.  Whole armadas could go down very soon . . .

Swineflogger's picture

Well I'll Be Jiggered

Just got an email from Cabelas.  My multi- multi month backorder for 1,200 rounds of Remington 9mm 115g FMJ has actually cleared their shop and has shipped to my location today!  I'll be damned.  Does this bode well for a resolution to the government caused disruption to the ammo chain????

Oink

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