Gold? Silver? The Miners?....All Three?

While kicking around YouTube last night, I found this interesting video.

This video is an interview of Jay Taylor, who is an analyst and a radio host. He discusses the metals, the miners, the economy and even the gold standard and he does so from the point of view of a "Turdite" so I thought you'd find it informative and compelling. It might even be a good one to send along to family and friends who are "on the fence".

TF

12:40 p.m. EST UPDATE:

I'm extraordinarily busy today so there is no time for a full, new post. However, as you've noticed, The Bernank has thrown us a few bones today in an attempt to talk up the stock market and increase his beloved "wealth effect".

I've noticed several requests for updated charts so I've posted them below. As we discussed yesterday, there are stages and hurdles in every recovery and the action today has boosted us through several. This is good as it greatly increases the pressure on the existing shorts, particularly those that were late to the game and were only sucked in last week. And that is where we will find our "critical levels".

First of all, we need to put today in the books without giving too much back. As I type, I've got gold near $1613 and it simply need to close above $1600 for our recovery purposes. IF we get something above $1615...even better! In silver, I really want to see us close above $29.20 and I've got a last of $29.34. Keep your fingers crossed.

As mentioned above, each metal now has a "critical level" and those can be found by looking at the price action since the beginning of the year. Recall that back on Jan 3 and 4, the metals were shoved lower and gold found a bottom near $1626. As price swooned two weeks ago, it became clear to nearly everyone that the $1626 level was going to be important support and, below there, the shorts would find plenty of sell-stops to harvest. Taking advantage of thin, overnight trading, The Bad Guys were able to swamp $1625 in U.S. wee hours of Friday, the 15th. Once below there, all sorts of tech-trading HFTs and momos were drawn into the short trade and the result was last week's cascade down to a low of $1555.

Almost all of those trades are now under water. If I were a fresh short, I'd be almost panicky here with a very itchy trigger finger. My only hope is that we stay below $1625 and then move back lower. In desperation, I may even double-down in the hopes of rescuing myself.

So there you have it. The "critical level" in this recovery is $1625. In silver, the commensurate point on the chart is near $30.20 so that is the other critical level. Watch them closely the rest of this week. WHEN price finally recovers through those levels, I expect a rapid return toward the levels sustained before the Chinese New Year, when The Forces of  Darkness felt compelled to begin this current event...roughly $1670 in gold and $31.50 in silver.

379 Comments

murphy's picture

1st?

1st? Must have something to do with cycles.

Dan Fogelberg (1951-2007) From the 1978 album, "Twin Sons Of Different Mothers." Lyrics:

The story is told of the power of gold and its lure on the unsuspecting
It glitters and shines, it badgers and blinds
And constantly needs protecting
Balance the cost of the soul you lost with the dreams you lightly sold
Are you under...the power of gold
The letters and calls got you climbing the walls
And everyone wants a favor
They beg to remind you of times left behind you
But you know the past is a loser
The face you're wearing is different now
And the days run hot and cold
Are you under...the power of gold
You're a creature of habit, run like a rabbit
Scared of a fear you can't name
Your own paranoia is looming before you
And nobody thinks that it's a game
Balance the cost of the soul you lost
With the dreams you lightly sold
Then tell me that you're free of the power of gold
The power of gold
The women are lovely, the wine is superb
But there's something about the song that disturbs you
The women are lovely, the wine is superb
But there's something about the song that disturbs you
The women are lovely, the wine is superb
But there's something about the song that disturbs you

 

Grublux's picture

First?

Ah well second it is!  Thought I snuck by there

paulindoon's picture

Oh come on now guys - no way

Oh come on now guys - no way did you view the vid before you posted.

Okay I'll confess!! I also have not viewed the vid BUT I did read TF's message.

Groaner's picture

JPM is laying off 4000 crooks!

I guess they see the forest through the trees.. time to cover their illegal naked shorts too.

Cobalt Silver's picture

Prepare to dive...

The Bernank is testifying at 10 am in Warshington.  If past performance is any indication put off your trip to the LCS until this afternoon.

treefrog's picture

suxth

6th!

Be Prepared's picture

A Crash of the Dead Society...

The social history of mankind exhibits great organizations in their alternating
functions of conditions for progress, and of contrivances for stunting humanity.
The history of the Mediterranean lands, and of western Europe, is the history of
the blessing and the curse of political organizations, of religious organizations, of
schemes of thought, of social agencies for large purposes. The moment of domi-
nance, prayed for, worked for, sacrificed for, by generations of the noblest spirits,
marks the turning point where the blessing passes into the curse. Some new prin-
ciple of refreshment is required. The art of progress is to preserve order amid
change, and to preserve change amid order. Life refuses to be embalmed alive.
The more prolonged the halt in some unrelieved system of order, the greater the
crash of the dead society.

Alfred North Whitehead
 

Mr. Whitehead put this together in the 1920s.... seems ever so relevant today... :-)

Joe Dokes's picture

Yay - Top Ten

A first for me.

Joe

marakai's picture

Me too. Thanks turd for all

Me too.

Thanks turd for all you do.

Mad5Hatter's picture

This should be a top 10er

how's that 2/20 28.57 bottom workin out for ya all?

Yeah Turd, you are way cool, with this site, info and stuff.

The public can get really weird at times, and ya just have to blow it off.

You know we hard-core bugs, LOVE YA MAN, just love you.

So, wife wants new couches to go with that new wood floor. I object of course, the tight-wad I am, I mean, the couches we have are 24 years old, still good for another decade in them, right? and they my body print embedded in them, and thats a heck of allot potatoe couching.. they were special, so cozy. But wife wanted new. :( So, we go down MACY and pick em out, 2 grand man, 2 grand for some freakin couches. They go we dont have them in stock, it will take 3 mo. 3mo!!! I scream, but its what the wife wants, so you pay up and wait, and wait we did, FOR THE BIG day.

I come cruisin home, and delivery truck is out front, the couches parked already in the house. One of two delivery guys is standing there with the clip board for me to sign, as Im walking in. Of course, without any inspection, I sign, and they bail. They were 1 hours late, and I was their last delivery. They were in a hurry I guess.

As soon as I look at the couches, one arm had a knife slit in it. It was obviously an exacto-knife cut from a UNDER-PRESSURE guy, cutting packaging away at time of deliver, and just got careless, and made a mistake. If you are not making mistakes, you are not doing anything. Chit happens. But here is the deal. The slit was obvious to anyone, and the delivery guy did not tell me, and that my friends, while handing me the clip board, is DECEIT.

So, I call em that night, and next day sent out a guy, who confirmed what was obvious, and said Macy would order replacement fabric, and they would repair in my house. But I did not order a repaired couch, I ordered a NEW ONE. They told be the fabric would be send in a month, and it never came. I call back, and had a discussion, it ended with,

if you guys dont deliver a new couch forthwith, I coming down to macy's with a BASEBALL BAT, and you all really dont want that. The guy on the phone stammers a bit. I said, I got the manager name, what's your name, he stammered again, and said, we will order you a replacement NEW couch.

I said back, "retail is great, eh?"

Trud, when you deal with the public, particular in bullion, where buy timing can be dishearting to the novice, look out for the hate mail turd. We all know you are really special, a loved bro.

But, "retail is great, eh?"

Urban Roman's picture

I'd definitely avoid the miners

... remember what SRSRocco keeps posting ...

The miners are being systematically driven out of business. Unless there is a drastic increase in the metals, it won't be worth trying to mine them in a couple years.

ivars's picture

I wonder if what Japan is

I wonder if what Japan is trying to do now is some kind of a blueprint for USG/Fed action in near future? Kind of a lab test of heavy artillery inflation targeting from below. Nominal GDP targeting.

Horst's picture

Okay, but not an

Okay, but not an extraordinary interview. I recommend Andrew Maguire's latest audio interview on KWN if you want to spend 10-20 minutes well.

Mickey's picture

Jay Taylor

has some good PM mileage on him, well connected too.

He does have a preference for juniors  with the ups and downs and I think does pretty good research.

Groaner's picture

Uncle Ben before CONgress.

Ron Paul needs to be there to really drill him...

the customary smack down is expected 

zinlover's picture

avoid miners?

Uh, you mean those companies that dig money right out of the ground?  FWIW (which is probably nothing) if all the miners go out of business, then the price of the thing they DON'T produce would go much, much higher than I can even imagine.  Which, as fuel get more expensive, or is diverted to say, grow food, could happen.  Its not like they make an I-thing...

Hammer's picture

Hey Ivars, I dunno about

Hey Ivars, they are gonna start charging to go up Mt Fuji, their national icon for the first time in.....errrrr.......ever and this year there is a 2.1 per cent income tax specially levied for the next 25 years http://accjjournal.com/belt-tightening/  to help with tsunami and earthquake damage from a couple of years ago. Noble but still a tax either way you look at it. Boots on ground report.

http://www.japantoday.com/category/national/view/mount-fuji-climbing-fee-to-be-introduced

and The Japanese government who owns 50% of Japan Tabacco is selling half their holdings for a cool 10 billion usd.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-25/japan-s-government-to-sell-10-3-billion-stake-in-japan-tobacco.html

erewenguy's picture

Looks like an island reversal

Looks like an island reversal being forced in silver today

Cobalt Silver's picture

Looking Good

Just now on CNBS Squat on the Street, "Goldman slashes outlook for Gold."

Unload now muppets.

ivars's picture

@Hammer

Yes, its all so hypocritical and so much to figure out and so much noise information until you get to the gist... which some people in the markets seem to know or just use to their convenience.

Mr. Fix's picture

Thanks Turd,

There's always great stuff here.yes

treefrog's picture

i'm so glad i live in the country, not the city

critique of forbes' 20 most miserable cities list.

tried to post just the link, it didn't work.  here's the whole article:

*******************************************************

Forbes Lists America's 20 'Most Miserable Cities'; Guess What The Vast Majority Have in Common?

Tom Blumer's picture

Forbes just published its 20 Most Miserable Cities List for 2013. The magazine left off several obviously more "worthy" contenders, perhaps because its decisions to include and exclude certain criteria were, to say the least, more than a little odd.

I have listed the magazine's top twenty following the jump, along with each city's mayor and that person's political leanings, showing a commonality the magazine's Kurt Badenhausen failed to observe:

Story Continues Below Ad ↓

20. Youngstown, Ohio -- Charles P. Sammarone, Democrat
19. Gary, Indiana -- Karen Freeman-Wilson, Democrat
18. Poughkeepsie, New York -- John C. Tkazyik, Republican
17. Cleveland, Ohio -- Frank Jackson, Democrat
16. Atlanta, Georgia -- Kasim Reed, Democrat
15. Atlantic City, New Jersey -- Lorenzo Langford, Democrat
14. Milwaukee, Wisconsin -- Tom Barrett, Democrat
13. Camden, New Jersey -- Dana Redd, Democrat
12. St. Louis, Missouri -- Francis Slay, Democrat
11. Toledo, Ohio -- Michael Bell, ran as an independent but is a lifelong Democrat
10. New York, New York -- Michael Bloomberg, Nanny State "Independent" since 2007; Democrat before 2001; ran as a Republican in 2001 just to get a spot on the ballot.
9. Waukegan, Illinois -- Robert G. Sabonjian, Democrat (see first paragraph following this list)
8. Stockton, California -- Anthony Silva, a Republican sworn into office by Democrat and former California Assembly Speaker Willie Brown.
7. Warren, Michigan -- James Fouts, Republican
6. Vallejo, California -- Osby Davis, Not determinable
5. Modesto, California -- Garrad Marsh, "non-partisan," clear Democrat sympathies
4. Chicago, Illinois -- Rahm Emanuel, Democrat
3. Rockford, Illinois -- Larry Morrissey, Independent
2. Flint, Michigan -- Dayne Walling, "nonpartisan," formerly worked for U.S. Rep. Dale Kildee, a Democrat
1. Detroit, Michigan -- Dave Bing, Democrat

Those who verify my links will notice that Forbes really listed Lake County, Illinois at Number 9. Sorry guys, a city is a city, and a county isn't. Waukegan is Lake County's county seat, and definitely deserves its spot on the list.

So the lineup (classifying Bloomberg, Toledo's Bell, Modesto's Marsh, and Flint's Walling as Dems, which philosophically is clearly what they are):

- Democrats -- 15
- Republicans -- 3
- Independent/not determinable -- 2

I would question the inclusion of Poughkeepsie (population 32,790) as a "city," and the only bad things Forbes had to say in its slide show were that its residents suffer from long commutes and property taxes are high. Those aren't exactly unique negatives.

Poughkeepsie's most obvious candidate for replacement is bankrupt San Bernardino, California, "the largest city ever to choose to file for protection under Chapter 9 of the U.S. Bankruptcy code." The mayor there is Pat Morris, a Democrat. San Bernardino County has seriously considered using the government's eminent domain powers to seize foreclosed properties from the banks which own them.

Despite the fierce competition, it's also hard to imagine how Forbes could have left out the following large cities: Oakland, California (mayor: Jean Quan, Democrat; third-highest violent crime rate in the U.S. in 2011; unforgivably overindulged Occupy movement thugs during 2011 and 2012); Baltimore, Maryland (Mayor: Stephainie Rawlings-Blake, Democrat; recently tagged as "on a path to financial ruin"); New Orleans (mayor: Mitch Landrieu, Democrat; highest murder rate in U.S.); or relatively small Scranton, Pa. (Mayor: Christopher Doherty, Democrat; recently "took the radical step of slashing municipal salaries to minimum wage to meet payroll").

Forbes changed its methodology this year, which may explain why the obvious contenders didn't make the list:

The metrics include the serious: violent crime, unemployment, foreclosures, taxes (income and property) and home prices. We also include less weighty, but still important quality-of-life issues like commute times and weather.

We tweaked the methodology in this year’s list in response to feedback from readers, dropping our rankings of both pro sports team success and political corruption, since both were based on regional, rather than city-specific data. We also added a new measure—net migration—which we see as a clear gauge of whether or not residents feel a community is worth living in.

The use of net-migration is an improvement, but two other methodology decisions this year were weak.

"Commute times" seems hardly worthy of inclusion, given that people choose where to live in full knowledge of what their commute times are. I could see including measurements relating to the frequency of serious traffic jams, but not "commute times" in general.

The magazine's exclusion of "corruption" is a joke. Surely the researchers at Forbes can determine the degree of corruption in America's various cities without copping out that the only available data is "regional." Another justification for why both Baltimore and New Orleans should be on the list is that each city's previous mayor was charged with crimes. Baltimore's Sheila Dixon was convicted in 2009; if there has been a major reduction of corruption there, I haven't heard about it. Former Mayor Ray Nagin of New Orleans is currently at the arraignment stage on bribery charges which seem all but certain to end in convictions.

Overall, I'd say Forbes has done a relatively miserable job with its miserable cities list.

******************************************************

if things get ugly/uglier (crisis, collapse, whatever) it will be ugliest in the cities, imo.

achmachat's picture

check out the volume spike!

...on netdania; that is a lot of "traffic" !

I wish everybody had to trade real physical bars, what a hoot that would be!

Groaner's picture

9000 contracts in 5 min.s down.

Like I said,, predictable.

14,000 in 10 min.s now on gold

$6-7 dollar move..?? not much for the effort..

another big spike in volume.. crooks.

this is just a coincidence that benny is speaking.

massive volume spike down. 19,000 15 min.s  just your average BIS intervention

Mr. Fix's picture

But...but ...but,

The COT ssssoooooooooooooooo was bullish!wink

Mad5Hatter's picture

and there they go

with the smash.  lets see if 28.57 holds ....

fun stuff .... with the right attitude ....

strong hands, physical in hand

I FEAR NO EVIL .....

Mr. Fix's picture

Meanwhile, the Bernanke speaks....

Dear Senate: Please Ask Bernanke To Explain This

Each time the Fed's balance sheet is expanded, gas prices at the pump surge... strange coincidence or entirely to be expected consequence of flooding the world with newly printed money. Dear Senate, please ask Bernanke to explain this... on Humphrey-Hawkins Report days, gas prices have only been higher once - right before the entire financial market collapsed.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-26/dear-senate-please-ask-bernanke-explain

 
Ten_of_Swords's picture

Bernanke comments released

Nothing new according to the report.

Here is one interesting snippet to ponder:

Bernanke says stimulus still is needed but costs may include changing public confidence, market stability. extra risk-taking, and changes in budget remittance.

Translation:Bernanke says it is essential to print more money, and to do it effectively we will need to lie to the public to keep them buying useless shit, propping up the stock market and sending it to "ALL TIME HIGHS!!!", extending QE4-ever to include $45 billion per month of SLUTS (Student Loan Universal Trust Securities), and we need to make ourselves more transparent by painting our balance sheet with whiteout.

Tell the fat lady she is on deck.

From my NetDania app news ticker/MarketWatch

BagOfGold's picture

The perception bias about miners...

The juniors with no funding to carry them through for the next 12 to 18 months will simply vanish or be swallowed up by other miners who have the funds!...The strongest will survive...the EXPLORERS...NOT PRODUCERS...the ones which discover high grade gold/silver & are well funded will be greatly rewarded!...What I have always strived for...is to get together "the list" of miners who will survive because of their discoveries & funding...& most of these miners are not covered by analysts!...The time to buy them is before they get coverage...& when the analysts do get around to covering them...the easy money has already been made!...Let me ask...when would you like to buy a miner...when it is under $1.00...or after it has gone over $1.00?...The majority of miners on "the list"...are well funded...& have better than average grades!...As well...unfortuntely....many of the miners never followed the price of gold when it got to $1550 an ounce...As gold was going up...the miners were going down!...Yes...there is a washout taking place...& with gold going down...the miners may go down too...But...if gold goes up...the good miners will probably follow "the big up"...& the weak ones will be washed out!...There are 3 things a mining investor who is invested in good mining stocks can do right now...1) stand aside & do nothing...2) Hold core positions & trade the trading positions...or 3) Sell at a loss!...

Now that my rant is over...I will go & crawl back into my cave!!!...

Bag Of Gold

tmosley's picture

*Whistles while his thesis

*Whistles while his thesis comes ever closer to bearing fruit*

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