Fear, Panic & Capitulation

Sounds like the perfect day for another TFMR Hat Contest!!!

Look, you can sit there and worry all you want. Santa's been warning you for days that things were about to get hairy. I warned you last Friday that, with the Chinese New Year, paper selloffs were bound to be more successful this week. The PM "markets" have now been driven to the same extreme oversold levels that we've seen at almost all of the bottoms/lows in the past. Though there may still be some follow-through selling as the momos attempt to take out $1600, who cares? What are you going to do? Convert your metal back into fiat? And if you do, which one? The Pig? The Euro or by extension, the Swissie? How about the yen? That'd be fun.

It all comes down to courage of conviction. Do you believe your own logic and analysis or do you believe CNBS? Do you trust your instincts or do you trust The Fed? I know you get tired of hearing it but here goes (again): You are being presented with a gift. That you can continue to accumulate physical gold and silver at $1600 and $30 is simply astonishing. Let The Forces of Darkness do their evil bidding. Five years from now, a day like today will be long forgotten. Meaningless unless you acted upon your beliefs and used this weakness to add to your stack.

Blast away of you want. If you need to vent, knock yourself out. Call me whatever you'd like, if that makes you feel better. But I do my best to keep everyone grounded. For example, we knew that at 98,000+ Cartel shorts, the silver market was likely going to get pounded. And it has. And without Asian demand in London propping up the physical market, paper shenanigans would rule the day. And so it's been. But this, too, will soon pass. Gold isn't going to $1500 and silver isn't going to break down through $26. And even if it does, who cares? If you're long and on margin (which I've cautioned you against for over a year now), then you obviously care. But again I ask you...Two years from now...Three years from now...Five years from now, none of this will have mattered. The only way you will recall this day is if you go full Gordon Brown and dump everything. Caught unprepared and buried in worthless fiat, you'll likely remember this day until the day you pass from this earth.

So, where are we? Well, I just checked and I see that, since I've been typing, gold has traded all the way down to $1596.70 and silver reached $29.73. They've since recovered a bit. That ought to do it. Maybe a retest or a slightly lower low over the 3-day weekend but things are now so deeply oversold that we've probably seen the worst of it. I could go on but I'm getting bored with it all, so, here are your charts. First, gold. Note the daily RSI and the presence of long-term support just below $1600.

And here is silver. Note that the long-term, primary trend that dates back to 2008 is in the vicinity of $29. Also note how many times The Bad Guys were unsuccessful at breaking it down through $30 late last year.

And here's a bonus weekly chart for you, created by Turdite "Mantis". Nice, simple, straightforward and easy to interpret.

Finally...The Hat Contest. Let's see, there is certainly no shortage of sages out there predicting big things by March, Santa being one of the most prominent. You've also got an abundance of mercurial newsletter writers predicting lower prices, instead. Keeping in mind that I've been wrong delayed for months, I am once again optimistic that finally some of my "explosive & historic" developments will begin to show themselves in the next six weeks. So, what do you think? The Contest will once again have two categories, gold and silver. Your task is to accurately forecast the closing price of silver and gold on Friday, March 29. This will be the price indicated by the Kitco charts on the homepage when the Globex closes at 5:15 NY time. (When guessing, you might keep in mind that FND for the April13 gold is 3/28.) Please use this thread for your guesses. I will close it to further comments/guesses at 6:00 pm EST on Sunday.

So, anyway, I don't know what else to tell you today besides hang in there and try to keep your eye on the big picture. PLEASE do not convert your metal back into fiat. Just hang in there, stay focused and continue to prepare for the inevitable.


p.s. Sorry to sound like a shill but what the heck...If you're looking to btfd, these are awful perdy...https://www.silverbulletsilvershield.com/freedom-girl-one-ounce-medallion.html?___store=silverbulletsilvershield_en&acc=b53b3a3d6ab90ce0268229151c9bde11

And if you register as a member today so that you can enter The Contest, please relax when you don't immediately see your guess appear in the comments. All new member accounts get moderated until I approve them. It's set up this way so that we can keep out spam, etc. I will edit and approve as quickly as possible. Thanks for you patience.


Pining 4 the Fjords's picture

First, suckas...

Oh, you want content with this post?  YOU CAN'T HANDLE CONTENT WITH THIS POST!

OK, maybe you can.  Here ya go-  apropos for today:

P.S.-   Waterfalls...


... Are opportunities disguised as pain. 


Gold 1711.11

Silver 35.11

mack's picture


sorry to be right behind you MR. P

Bollocks's picture


PS - the french ARE nutters ...

Swineflogger's picture


Oink to the fourth power

TheGreatKD's picture


Gold $1999.99

Silver $46.46

TinHat's picture

Stay Long Stay Strong

Turd, thanks for the pep talk.  Some folks need a boost to keep then up when metal go down.  Keep rowing the boat.

tyberious's picture

4 Questions to Pacify Silver

4 Questions to Pacify Silver Fear

I love silver volatility - up or down.  It means something is happening behind the scenes that is forcing the silver market riggers to "shake the branches". The latest slam is great news and as long as you have taken my advice and removed your silver from their clutches you are safe. Very safe. As a matter of fact, you should be rooting for $0 silver because that would mean the rigging game is over!
I also love to bring out my "Silver Pacifier" article every time the price of silver is taken down farther than most expect. It helps ease the fears and helps sooth the nerves. I have said many times that "they" can PLACE the price of silver at $0/oz or $1M/oz in a stoke of a key on a keypad.
I particularly love the 4 questions posed and answers given in the Silver Pacifier article and here they are:

QUESTION #1: Is the Silver market rigged?

ANSWER: YES. Everyday and every trade the silver market is "controlled" and has been for at least the last 40 years. NOBODY knows the true Fair Market Value of silver anymore so all prices for silver are currently irrelevant.

QUESTION #2: How is it done?

ANSWER: The silver market rigging is accomplished by running computer market trading programs to "steer" the price of silver up and down flushing out weak hands on the price slams and covering short positions that were previously put in place to cap the rising price. These silver "trades" have little to do with physical silver but everything to do with paper derivatives of silver. There is no floor or limit to where "the controllers" can place the price of silver.

QUESTION #3: Why are they doing it?

ANSWER: To save the unbacked fiat monetary system. Unless you control the prices of all commodities, especially the monetary metals, an unbacked paper/electronic monetary system will fail in rapid fashion. As such, when the US went off the Gold Standard in the early 1970's, Alan Greenspan wrote and implemented the original computer market rigging models to PROLONG the acceptance of unbacked fiat money. This was the implementation of the 1960's economic theory called "On The Road to The Golden Age" by Bertil Näslund which dealt with Nobel Prize winner E. Phelps's "Golden Rule Theory" of equal capital accumulation. The ultimate conclusion of this theory was to print as much unbacked currency as possible for as long as possible to reap all the rewards before returning to the discipline of a Gold Standard.

QUESTION #4: When will it end?

ANSWER: There's the $100 Trillion question which actually has a very reasonable answer...The market rigging will end when the benefits of printing unbacked fiat money no longer outweigh the costs. The United States has hit that point as the "Bad Guy" banksters who abuse the system and have practically taken control of the country are in the process of transferring all that "VIRTUAL WEALTH" into their own pockets. Of course in the end THEY are the fools for believing in their own flawed monetary system where paper and electronic blips equals REAL WEALTH! The first attempt at ending the GAME was thwarted by the Bankters in 2008 but don't despair... The next attempt at crashing the system is right around the corner and we have made SURE that they will not escape this time.

Those are the answers to those 4 very big questions. As for what will happen to the price of silver during the transition to a gold and silver backed monetary system...IT CAN GO ANYWHERE! But in the end it will be FEAR of losing all your virtual wealth that will drive the price of silver to the moon.
Here's your Silver Pacifier once again:
Your Silver Pacifier
Once again we have to suffer through the idiotic media explanations of WHY silver is falling but once again we will return to silver strength as it is the ONLY way to protect your wealth outside of the rigged game.
Load up the truck with physical silver baby cuz it's getting exciting again!
May the Road you choose be the Right Road.
Bix Weir
Be Prepared's picture

The Power of the Force...

Luke, I am your Father.... and I am evil....

I will bend gold and silver to my will....

jonathanmarktaylor's picture

Hat Contest

Silver $37.64

Gold $1822

JazzTalker's picture

No Names TURD

Keep doing what you are doing. We are making progress.  A little more kick inthe ass then we go up the zoo zoo

GoldistheFuture's picture


Gold $1724

Silver $35.24

Swineflogger's picture


Gold @ $1,877

Silver @ $48.88

California Lawyer's picture

Nice Pining, way to grab first. . .

So close . . .

Too busy from reading all the post from yesterday, oh well.  Court is not in session today for my trial.  This particular judge has to do a sentencing.  It is for a a murder case.  Defendant is a 78 year-old lawyer who killed his victim in 1989.  Big story, sad, too.

Anyhow, this day appears to be epic.


gold price prediction: $1,730

silver price: $33.33

Charles S. Hamlin's picture

Hat Contest Guess

Thanks Turd for your words of reason in the face of the recent downward spriral.

As far as my prediction goes...

Gold $1685

Silver $31.85

In other words, more of the same up-and-down.

Bollocks's picture


silver 32.60

gold 1682

TinHat's picture

Count me in

Gold  1885.05

Silver 36.96

SIlverbee's picture

Silverbee says

$35.51 Silver, £1801.00 Gold.

See what I did?

tobydaniel's picture

My prediction

Remember, oversold does not count in a 100 percent rigged market.


30.96 silver

1666 gold

department of truth's picture

I predict

Charts don't mean sh*t when the crooks are running the markets.

BagOfGold's picture

Pining...First suckas &...

P.S.-   Waterfalls...


... Are opportunities disguised as pain

I totally agree!...However...let me add...fear is only pain leaving you!...Take "the shorts" off...& swim with the sharks!...

Happy Capitulation Day!!!...


Gold: $1800.50

Silver: $26.49

Bag Of Gold

FriedEggs's picture

In the history of the World

...Gold has never defaulted.



Irksome's picture

Irksome guesses

Gold $1743

Silver $39.56

Green Lantern's picture

gold 1789silver 42.68Jim

gold 1789

silver 42.68

The first thing I learned as an intelligence analyst is there are no coincidences. meets about . tanks.
shorts are getting ready to meet the floor. This is getting interesting.
There are NO coincidences.  Every good detective knows that!   Everything is related until you can prove otherwise.   I'm keeping horse meat on my list. 
Missiondweller's picture

The rubber band is stretched even more

The difference between fundamentals and the price of PM's have never diverged more...and just as currency wars are being discussed in all the media. This is almost comical.

atomic180's picture


Au $1878 Ag 33.65

El Gordo's picture

Hat contest

Gold - 1666.66

Silver - 32.32

brokerk22's picture

Hat contest

Let me go with $1805 gold and $38.27 silver.  Make that $4.75 gas as well.  

squib's picture

in 6 weeks

Gold - 1654.30

Silver - 33.33

Ammo - ?

prius_driver's picture

gold 1701 silver 39.01

gold 1701

silver 39.01

Green Lantern's picture

Missed one

What better time to attack than when is on holiday? Blatant manipulation is such an adrelanie rush. h/t
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