Items From The Mailbag

Today seems like a good day to get caught up on a few things.

Whew! Option expiration for the Feb13 gold contract is finally behind us and prices have begun to recover. I bet ya just can't wait for Monday, Feb 25 when the Mar13 silver options expire. Mark your calendars!

Until then, we should see a general rally. The next three weeks will likely be positive as the metals regain the ground lost late last week, and then some. ("Is that the footlong? And then some!")

For now, let's just get our feet under us and recover. The CoT structure has undoubtedly become considerably more bullish after last week and the metals are primed for a sizeable short squeeze if we can just get a spark. Might that spark come the Fedlines tomorrow ( http://www.bkassetmanagement.com/us-outlook/fomc-preview-why-this-months-meeting-important_3905/) or perhaps the BLSBS on Friday? Hard to say, of course. We'll see.

But I like the possibility of a decent jump in price here. Consider the OI numbers. On Thursday and Friday of last week, while price was falling over $30, the total OI in gold rose by over 2000 contracts and you have to take into consideration that gold OI should have been falling rapidly due to the falling price and expiring Feb13 contract. Instead, it rose. This tells me that a considerable amount of new shorts were added and those shorts are quite vulnerable because they don't have a lot of wiggle room on any rally.

And then there's silver. While price was falling $1.24 over the Thu-Fri trading days, the total OI rose by over 5,400 contracts. Clearly a significant rise in short interest. Additionally, total OI in silver is all the way back up to 149,593. This is the highest level since 11/27/12 and just 6,000 below the high of all 2012. Keep in mind, too, that on 11/27/12 price closed at 34.08. Just as there were some vulnerable longs at $34, there are now some vulnerable shorts at $31.

So, let's see if we can begin to recover here. Gold needs to reclaim $1670 and silver $31.60 before we can get excited so watch those levels closely.

And just a few, other random charts for you to consider. First, here's platinum. Though it was sharply lower yesterday, support near $1660 held again so the party definitely isn't over. Will attempt #8 at surpassing $1700 finally get it done?

Crude keeps inching ever higher. If I was sitting on a profit, though, I'd sure be getting an itchy trigger finger to ring the register. $98-100 has to be pretty significant resistance.

And check out these two losers...The Pig and the 10-yr note. Neither are at a critical moment...yet...but both are moving in that direction. In particular, the 10-year. Demand hasn't waned enough yet that it requires a boost in QE∞ but that day is coming. Maybe by this summer?

OK, finally...to the mailbag. There was a lot of talk around here earlier this month regarding the manufacture and sale of TFMR silver rounds. I am looking into this but, logistically, it's much more difficult to pull off than you might imagine. I'll keep you posted.

Many folks are wondering when The Jackass might make a return appearance on a podcast. We are tentatively set for one later this week. If it happens, I will post it in its usual timeslot of late Friday.

Someone sent me an email which included some very interesting info on the "HSBC acquiring silver" story from last week. It also included this helpful chart.

Here is the news release re. HSBC from KGHM: http://www.kghm.pl/index.dhtml?module=articles&id=4962
At an exchange rate of 3.1 Polish Zloties per USD, the Jan 21, 2013 contract was for ~ USD 539 M
Using a constant exchange rate of 3.1 PLN/USD, contracts between KGHM and HSBC over the past 12 months total USD 1.18 B
Assuming $32/oz silver for the last 12 months, the Jan 21, 2013 contract with HSBC was for ~ 16.9 million oz. of silver and the prior 12 months of sales to HSBC is ~ 36.8 million oz. of silver
In 2011, KGHM produced approximately 41 million oz. of silver - HSBC is purchasing almost all of their silver production.
According to their presentation, KGHM is the world's largest silver producer:

Speaking of nice charts, here's one that shows the varying inventory of the SLV:

And this is an interesting story. The Turdite who alerted me to it has his theory as to why this is important and I think he is correct. However, I'll let you read it and draw your own conclusions. http://profit.ndtv.com/news/economy/article-rbi-may-let-banks-buy-back-gold-in-a-bid-to-curb-demand-317032

Chris Duane has a new medallion out for purchase. They've already sold over 7,000 of them! If you're interested in buying some, please use this link: https://www.silverbulletsilvershield.com/freedom-girl-one-ounce-medallion.html?___store=silverbulletsilvershield_en&acc=b53b3a3d6ab90ce0268229151c9bde11

Finally...and somewhat reluctantly...I'm going to post this link to a segment from Dr. Janda's show last weekend. After a few minutes, the guest turns his attention to an anti-Obama diatribe. Take it for what it's worth and shut it off if you need to. However, the first five minutes or so definitely deserve your attention. Dr. Dave clearly feels this guy is legitimate, so, listen closely. http://www.davejanda.com/audio/JimGarrow012713.mp3

OK, that's it for today. Have a great one!

TF
 

332 Comments

Istack's picture

Nickels

Stacking nickels is kinda fun.  I got $10 dollars worth yeasterday.  That's 200 nickels.  An easy way to help you feel like your stack is getting bigger. I was inspired by all the nickel chatter lately.  I now own just over 112 pounds of nickels.  Keep stacking while you can.

Bill of Rights's picture

Connecticut gun violence hearing. Senator Beth Bye On Facebook/T

Connecticut gun violence hearing. Senator Beth Bye On Facebook/Twitter plus Video's

http://forums.corvetteforum.com/politics-religion-and-controversy/3209046-connecticut-gun-violence-hearing-senator-beth-bye-on-facebook-twitter-plus-videos.html

Working in our Best interests I see...

Road_Scholar's picture

When fiat was worth something

Silver Certificate dollars were exchangeable for silver. 

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSrugo7v8p5A2Oq11MYut9

Not now...

american-dollar-toilet-paper.jpg

Turd Ferguson's picture

And I should add

MODERATOR

Anytime I make a new post, my twitter followers get notified.

If you would like to be notified, just click one of the links above and follow me @TFMetals.

Ilya Repin's picture

Metals have bottomed 0309

Metals have bottomed 0309 says so. Gold at 1800 in feb.

US mint 7,000,000 eagles so far.

That_1_Guy's picture

Johnny 5

Is alive!!

Made outta silver!

Revelation's picture

Tyrannical U.S. Mint Update

http://www.usmint.gov/mint_programs/american_eagles/?action=sales&year=2013

2013 Silver Sales Totals
(in ounces / number of coins)
Month One
( oz. / #coins )
January 7,130,000
7,130,000
Total 7,130,000
7,130,000
 
Revelation's picture

Latest Keiser

Big L's picture

Thank you for considering

The Turd Round, I would really like to buy a few.

Do you know how many you would need to sell to make it worth the effort?

The Watchman's picture

Updated Sales for ASE's=NEW Monthly Record

2013 Silver Sales Totals
(in ounces / number of coins)
Month One
( oz. / #coins )
January 7,130,000
7,130,000
Total 7,130,000
7,130,000

[Top]

Urban Roman's picture

Well there , now.

I'm the proud owner of 1.988 Bitcoins. Just couldn't stand it any more and decided to jump in. 

I bought 2 of 'em, but the exchange sheared off that little fraction as a fee. Understandable, since they need to keep the lights on in the server room. 

On the whole, the feeling is like that Southpark episode "Annnnd it's gone". 

Beastly Stack's picture

Please Visit

I did wait to get TF's permission.I am a turdite and long time follower of Jim Sinclair and I decided to write my own blog.If you enjoy trading and would like another's perspective,please visit me @

http://tradermartinstake.com/

Thanks Turd

California Lawyer's picture

Ammo Report

Ammo Report - JHP for Common Calibers - Handguns - Turners and Bass Pro Shop
 
From January 25, 2013, Turners, Rancho Cucamonga, CA. [I just could not break away to get ammo around the first of the month, then the gun control craze erupted, and I did not have two hours to waste in line trying to buy ammo.  Hence, I went at the end of the month, when I figured the crowds would thin out a bit.  I was right on the crowds, but the damn ammo was literally emptied from the shelf.  Only the high end JHP was available, but NONE for .38 or 9mm.  Let’s see what happens next month.
 
Price paid:
 
1 box - Hornady .45 ACP +P Custom 230 GR XTP, 20 rounds = $20.99;
 
1 box .40 SW Custom 155 GR XTP, 20 rounds = $19.99;
 
No boxes of 9mm available;
 
1 box - Hornady 357MAG 125GR Crit Def 25 rounds = $27.99
 
No boxes of .38 available;
 
Peoples’ Republik of Kalifornia sales tax = $5.52
 
Total: $74.49
 
As for the Bass Pro Shop foray on Jan 25, 2013, they were totally sold out of all JHP in the above calibers. In fact, the shelves looked like a communist Russian bread store in the 70's, bare as hell, with “not available” signs all over the shelves.
 
This looked like panic buying, for sure.  Lot’s of sheeple being fleeced by the panic induced by Feinstein’s gun bill.  
 
Note that the gun bill does not ban M1A’s?  So the dumb govt bans the lower caliber, less lethal 5.56 “assault weapons,” but does not ban the more powerful M1A’s with their .308 [7.62x51 NATO] cartridges?  That sounds exactly like the govt dumbasses that I know.  
 
In a few months, when all the hype has dissipated, I will quietly be securing another M1A, or ten, who knows.  Long range rifle classes are all set up in Feb., and I even hired a private instructor/armorer to help me set up the scope, rings, cheek addition, etc.  Game on!
 
Molon Labe!
 
p.s. Turd, Happy Birthday my friend!  Sorry I missed posting yesterday.
Ilya Repin's picture

local currency in

local currency in UK

http://brixtonpound.org/

A1Topgun's picture

Silver is BAD for you !!!

Well it has started. The goober mint's public service advertisement to condition the sheep that silver is bad for you.(at 25 seconds) Don't let your baby touch it! Why? They do not say. Never mind the antibacterial qualities, just know it's BAD for you to TOUCH it.

A search of "babies touch silver" does not bring up any negative hits.

So the masses can just watch the MSM commercials on the boob tube and know how bad it is to even touch that evil relic, PM.

Bollocks's picture

ASE record

If they started selling again yesterday (did they?) then they've sold nearly a million in a day.

...and there's still 2 days to go this month.

Could end up being a major record smiley.

Bill of Rights's picture

RCM Rationing 2013 Silver Maple Leaf Bullion Coins

http://news.coinupdate.com/rcm-rationing-silver-maple-leaf-bullion-coins-1825/

Amidst a surge in demand, the Royal Canadian Mint has started rationing 2013 Silver Maple Leaf bullion coins at the primary distributor level. This follows the news earlier this month that the United States Mint had temporarily sold out of their 2013-dated silver bullion coins after receiving orders for more than 6 million coins and would begin rationing supplies as soon as sales resume.

Less information is known about the silver bullion coin situation in Canada, as the RCM does not publicly report sales levels outside of their required financial filings. A representative for the Mint did confirm that coins are currently being allocated.

Alex Reeves, Senior Manager of Communications at the Royal Canadian Mint provided the following statement:

boatman's picture

RE: Swartz n his fractals

a fractal in charting....... is a 'time' shrunk or expanded 'x' [or horizontal] axis..........AND/OR  a 'amount or value' shrunk or expanded 'y' [vertical] axis....IN A COMPARISON of two chart subjects[ie, gold and silver..........or gold in 1980 and now, etc.].....one subject in the past---to extrapolate the other subject to the future---giving a 'forecast'......basically by assuming  the greed/fear battle in investing always acts the same.....totally discounts macroecon factors  and compares apples to oranges......tho it is sometimes interesting to consider.

in nature, a fractal is like looking at the veins of a leaf and seeing that the branches of the tree is similar, just expanded.

they have been able to do MUCH better human hair on CG movies by fractal graphic detail analysis.

AlexCojones's picture

ASE Resumption on Turd's Birthday?

Wasn't January 28th when the mint resumed ASE production? And wasn't that also TFs birthdate? Who knew the yellow-hatted one had so much leverage.

Speaking of an anti-Obama rant. Maybe the Klinkster posted this already.

nat def resources preparedness act

The Last American President...

Pining 4 the Fjords's picture

@Bollocks

Bollocks wrote:   "Now then, Bollocks isn't just a robot, he's an astronaut robot who likes to meet up with his space-alien buddies (that's friends who are aliens from space) on other planets, to enjoy tea and biscuits ... wink."

Ha!

ClinkinKY's picture

"regional security interests", "democratic transition"...

...uh huh, okay. (And note that "democratic transition" was used twice, so we must be  "super serial":)

-----------------------------------------------------

ClinkinKY's picture

@ The big cojones

Nope. Nice find:)

dingleberry's picture

SBSS Medallions...

The new one looks beautiful, but what a shame they've stopped shipping to the UK and put it in the hands of European dealers.

The premiums make it impossible to purchase, I make it an extra 30%, plus the 20% import duty !!

Would love to support SBSS, but do me a favour, 'avin a tin barf !

murphy's picture

Ca Law

Probably not news to you but right up your alley.

It’s a war out there folks. More people are dying in Chicago every day than are dying in Afghanistan (six people murdered this last Saturday). And they want to take away our means of protecting ourselves.

America’s inner cities are war zones. The democratic governments running these inner city plantation hellholes are running out of other people’s money, and can’t afford enough police to keep order. This happening all over the U.S. It’s so bad, army trauma doctors are training in real war zones (American inner cities) before they go overseas.

CNN Pentagon correspondent Barbara Starr reported this weekend on a program used to train military doctors for the fast-paced and bloody environment found in war zone hospitals — namely, America’s inner cities.

Starr follows a rotation of military doctors who are preparing for their deployment at the University of Maryland Shock Trauma Center in Baltimore. The program director told Starr that the hospital is the closest to a war zone hospital he has seen:

Los Angeles

Did you know that Latino gangs are systematically pushing black families out of some areas of Los Angeles?

For example, once upon a time Compton was a predominantly African-American area. But now it is 65 percent Latino, and there is a relentless campaign of intimidation against many of the African-American families that remain.

One of these incidents was recently profiled in the Los Angeles Times. A black family moved into Compton near the end of December, and since that time they have been the victims of endless harassment by Latino gangs. When a 19-year-old African-American friend came to visit the family one day, four thugs told him that blacks were barred from the neighborhood and they started beating him with metal pipes. A story in the Los Angeles Times described what happened next…

The 19-year-old family friend managed to break free that first day and run into the house, where the children were the only ones at home.

The attackers left, but a half-hour later a crowd of as many as 20 people stood on the lawn yelling threats and epithets. A beer bottle crashed through the living room window as the youngsters watched in horror.

“They were scared if they called the sheriff they’d be killed,” Westin said. “So they called their mom, who called the Sheriff’s Department.”

The gang members were gone by the time deputies arrived, but they kept coming back, almost daily, driving by slowly until they got someone’s attention, then yelling racial insults and telling them to leave. The mother sent the children to live with relatives and is now packing up to leave herself.

As horrifying as that sounds, the truth is that it is not an isolated incident.

According to the Los Angeles Times, similar attacks “have taken place in Harbor Gateway, Highland Park, Pacoima, San Bernardino, Canoga Park and Wilmington, among other places.”

http://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=48178

Turd Ferguson's picture

though it's debka

MODERATOR
Bollocks's picture

@Pining - BRILLIANT!!

That's hilarious! Absolutely superb.  smileysmileysmileysmileysmileysmiley. Thank you SO much!

Hey, those really ARE my buddies. Have you been spying on me?

 

ClinkinKY's picture

TF-Quit apologizing for posting DEBKA articles...

...do you apologize for CNN, MSNBC, ABC, FOX, etc etc?wink

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