A Glorious FUBM

Well, that was fun, wasn't it?

Once again, there sure is a lot to talk about today. I was just about ready to start typing about an hour ago and then this FUBM developed and ruined all my pretty charts. Shucks. That's OK, though. I'll take it. And for those neo-Turdites out there wondering what the heck "FUBM" means, please consult the Turdisms page for an explanation: http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/glossary

Now, before we get started, we need to re-visit yesterday. Ole Turd got quite a bit of pub with his "German Gold Hijinx" post and the last 24 hours has brought all kinds of howling over the 8-year, German repatriation schedule. No sense in going through it all again but here's a reprint of the most important paragraphs. Please give this your full consideration:

However, you could also choose to look at it this way:
In preparation for The Great Reset, the Germans do desire to repatriate as much gold as possible but they also don't wish to bring about The Reset any quicker than necessary.

  • So, they bring home "their French gold" but only do so at the rate of 50 tonnnes/year. Why? If it's just sitting in a vault and collecting dust, why not ship it all home over the next few weeks? What's the big deal?
  • And why leave "their English gold" untouched? Is it because all gold stored at the BoE can be leased, hypothecated and rehypothecated many times over, thereby making reclaiming it impossible?
  • And why bring back just 300 tonnes of "their American gold", again over the next 8 years? It shouldn't be that big of a deal to pull up a few pallets of "barbarous relic" from below the streets of lower Manhattan, drive it over to JFK and load it onto an airplane bound for Frankfurt. Should it?

Hmmmm. Maybe, just maybe, their French gold is long gone and the Frenchy-French need some time to come up with new supply to pay them back? ( http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/12/22/ozabs-mali-gold-idAFJOE5BL01520091222) Maybe the English gold has all been shipped to China and other points East, where it has been resmelted into kilo bars with official Chinese insignia? ( http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3924/gonefor-good) And maybe, just maybe, the American gold is nothing but paper certificates and IOUs, no more valuable than claims on the GLD? ( http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/10/25_James_Turk_-_The_Entire_German_Gold_Hoard_Is_Gone.html)

OK, back to today. Lots and lots to cover but very little time as it is already 11:10 EST as I type. Sorry if this seems scatter-shot but here you go.

First of all, the raid and the FUBM. Andy and The Army were all over this, well before it happened. He was expecting an "algo-gamed" dip on the claims data and he got it. He then expected large physical allocations on the drop in price because there were central bank orders waiting to be filled on a dip. He got that, too. As these allocations became clear at the PM fix, bullion banks were forced to buy paper and UP she went. And here we are. In silver, the FUBM was even more pronounced since it began from a level that was just below a bevy of buy-stops that we'd suspected all week were in place just above $31.55-31.60. All in all, a very fun morning.

Here are the updated 8-hour charts for gold and silver. Note that both metals continue to trend off of the bottoms made in late December and on 1/3 - 1/4. This is some very nice action here. Let's look to consolidate these gains a bit and then move a little higher. The next, main tests will be 1690-95 and 32.00-32.20. Maybe tomorrow? Monday?

Helping to push things along has been a further rise in crude. Having moved through $94, IF it can hang tough here, it will likely begin a move toward $98-100.

And platinum continues to look strong. It has had some trouble with the $1700 level all week but it doesn't appear to be giving up. Watch this metal closely over the next few days. A burst of strength through $1700 will undoubtedly help supply some extra bids for gold and silver.

Keep an eye on the Yen, too. Hard to predict the ultimate bottom of this historic decline but it sure doesn't look like it's over yet. Additionally, soon other CBs may have to devalue even more in order to "keep up" with the BoJ and the race to the bottom will accelerate.

"While the dog returns to his vomit, the sow remains in her mire"...

And here's something else that has been overlooked. On 1/2/13, the total alleged inventory of gold at the GLD was 1349.92 metric tonnes. As of last night, it was 1334.42 metric tonnes. Hmmmm. Where on earth do you suppose this 15.5 metric tonnes of gold went? I mean, shit, Germany has to wait eight freaking years to get just a little bit of their gold back from France the the U.S. but 15.5 mts can be systematically yanked from the GLD and no one bats an eye...even while price has been rallying. Remarkable.

Finally, you've got to check this link from ZH. It discusses the fallacy of BLS seasonal adjustments. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-17/chart-day-housing-starts-adjusted-vs-unadjusted These charts, ripped from the post, tell you all you need to know about MOPE and SPIN and how hopelessly f'd up and manipulated our entire financial system has become. Try not to burst out laughing as I did but don't don't feel badly if you do...

As I close, I see that demand for paper metal continues in New York and price is beginning to extend higher once again. This is, of course, very nice to see and bodes well for the short-term. Have a great day!

TF

1:45 pm EST UPDATE:

A late session surge in gold was finally enough to make Blythe shout "GENUG!" and bring to a halt the rally for today. Note that price stopped right at:

  • Expected resistance near $1695 &
  • The usual Cartel Cap of a 1% daily gain

For now, let's just continue to hold and consolidate before we make a concerted run on $1695 and $32.

TF

335 Comments

Istack's picture

I like it

now this is starting to get exciting!

achmachat's picture

This must be the best place on the net!

second!

anyways.. as I was saying in the previous post, we can see as we pass different levels, how buy-stops get triggered.

This could be the beginning of domino-fun!

indosil's picture

.

first

indosil's picture

damn...Thurd again

.

The Green Manalishi's picture

OK, what does this mean?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-17/slv-etf-adds-record-572-tons-silver-one-day-more-all-2012

SLV Adds Record 572 Tons Of Silver In One Day, More Than In All Of 2012

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Technically the addition of 572 tons, or a massive 18,378,092 ounces of physical silver, to the SLV ETF, in one day is not a record, as it excludes one amount which however was a year end rebalance at the end of 2007 offset promptly on the next day, but it certainly is the biggest one day addition of physical silver to SLV in ordinary course operations. It is also more silver added to the ETF in all of 2012, when just 544 tons were added in the entire year. This was driven by the creation of some 19,000,000 shares of SLV overnight which brought the total to 356.8 million shares. And since there has been no move in the price of silver, which certainly would have soared had this amount been purchased in the open market we can only assume this has to do with in kind basket creation taking place. Whether this was due to arbitrage, or simply the need to create inventory we don't know: we are confident however, that SLV custodian, money laundering expert extraordinaire HSBC, will have no comment. Just as there is no comment why in the days following the epic May 1, 2011 take down of silver, a nearly just as large 522 tons of silver poured out the ETF on May 4, 2011. What is certain is that a move of this size is certainly notable.

SLV%20ETF_0.jpg

achmachat's picture

.

i am looking forward to the day when we can delete our unwanted posts.

:-)

Turd Ferguson's picture

Yes. Will need to look into that.

MODERATOR

I'll ask Andy what he thinks. Very strange.

Swift Boat Vet's picture

FUBM !!!! It's been a while

It does feel wonderful to behold.

Swifty

El Gordo's picture

To the moon Alice...

...to the moon.

Patrancus's picture

FUBO

tobydaniel's picture

Housing starts

Unbelievable! Totally out of control liars.

Save_America1st's picture

Lucky prospector finds huge gold nugget

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-01-17/lucky-prospector-strikes-huge-gold-nugget/4470016

5.5kg gold nugget found near Ballarat

The Fed better steal...er, "buy" the nugget from this guy so they can't melt it down and hand it over to Germany.

achmachat's picture

giant gold nugget

5,5 kilos... at an average of 90% purity for nuggets, that's 160 troy ounces of fine gold!

not too shabby!

Turd Ferguson's picture

Can't reach Andy

MODERATOR

This time of the evening in London is usually when he steps away for the night.

What I do know is this: Last summer, he had a client buy 10,000,000 ounces of silver and it took over six weeks to get it fully delivered. Yet, here we are in January and the SLV can get twice that much delivered overnight. What a freaking sham. And never forget this chart from Jeff Nielson, based upon data from the CPM Group:

Notice that total silver inventories began to steeply decline with the advent of "the computer age" in the late 80s. Then, look how they sharply rebounded once the ETFs were introduced in 2005 and have continued to climb to this day. To update this chart, Uncle Ted currently estimates the global inventory to be around 1,000,000,000 ounces.

And furthermore, the SLV "purchase" yesterday amounts to 2% of total available, global supply! Yet paper price has barely budged!! Again, what a complete farce and sham.

achmachat's picture

big numbers

Turd,

do you happen to know what a single client does with 10,000,000 ounces of silver? Is that for a mint?

Edward G's picture

SLV

Does 'inventory' mean you invented it?

Turd Ferguson's picture

If I recall correctly

MODERATOR

It was purely an investment.

Response to: big numbers
indosil's picture

@Turd

What if they sell the no of shares they just created out of thin air??

Byzantium's picture

@ ahmachat

"Turd, do you happen to know what a single client does with 10,000,000 ounces of silver? Is that for a mint?

It's probably just T. Moseley.  wink

Road_Scholar's picture

FUBM

But she does have the hots for Ned & Andy

BlytheMastersV1.jpg

achmachat's picture

interesting

good to see that there's also "wealthy" people out there who haven't been brainwashed by their bankers!

The logistics to get 10,000,000 ounces delivered and then privately stored must be something to behold!

Groaner's picture

Wow!

I saw the smack down and said ho hum...business as usual but I did not see the pop back up. I looked at the price, gold at $1688 and couldn't believe it..

Its safe to say we have a much higher floor in now.. ready to rocket Major Tom.

Byzantium's picture

@ Achmachat re 10m ounces silver

I wonder if they will swap it for gold one day like us, and at what GSR?

billwilson's picture

Miners

I would never argue that the miners were manipulated (cough, cough, cough)

Market up, gold, up, silver up, major miners ... down. I know we have options exp tomorrow ... but this is getting somewhat past ridiculous.

One interesting play right now is AMM.to Latest drill results were very nice and they now look to have quite a resource, plus cash in the bank. Once it gets through C$3.20 ... it looks like it should move steadily higher.

Revelation's picture

Sprechen Sie D!ck

Blythe_Masters.jpg

achmachat's picture

Byzantium

your reasoning makes a lot of sense... imagine a few hundred of this kind of investors who are all waiting for 30, 20 or 16.

with a sudden influx of that much silver when it becomes rarer compared to gold, we might actually have a self-regulating mechanism that will inevitably balance the gold to silver ration at a specific value!

I think we are going to recognize that balancing point when the Gold/Silver ration will plateau at a value not too far from the historical ratio.

enflow's picture

I Blush... But My Niece

I Blush... But My Niece Always Tells Me...

That When She Goes Out With Guys...

SIZE MATTERS... !!

Size Matters

Keg's picture

Charles Ponzi in Gold Vault

Charles Ponzi in Gold Vault

Ponzi can surely attest
The gold in the vault is the best
But then he checked leases
For 10 times the pieces
And said: "Now I'm really impressed!!!"

treefrog's picture

SHAZAMMM!

what a nice surprise!  i didn't check on the markets until after lunch today.  i've been prepping.  made a big batch of kimchee this morning - a near term prep.

then, i got to the computer, and shazammm!  the metals are popping! 

maybe i should make kimchee more often.  that works several ways.

ballyale's picture

In case you missed it. 1oz PM means 100 paper must be sold.

Every Oz. Repatriated means 100 Oz's of Paper needs to be bought

 
1

It looks like Chavez's real legacy is that in repatriating his country's gold, he started an avalanche with with a large snowball towards the destruction of the Western/Global fiat based currency scheme.

I think it is no coincidence that the typical/normal EE takedown this morning was counted with an inverse waterfall. The German demand for repatriation was in itself as "waterfall" event, however, tepid. I can only imagine that every country that has "gold" stored in NY or the City of London, are now talking about getting it back before they can't , are left in the cold, and are politically overthrown by those who would use it as a campaign issue. This is going to be a Nationalistic issue at its best or worst depending on whose side you're on.

It is now being outed that the Western CB's and Bullion Banks are and have been cheats, liars, and thieves. It is no wonder that so many Banks use the word "Trust" as part of their Name of their company. That is because as a fractional reserve system, there could be a run on the bank and in hours that Bank could go BK when the trust is no longer trusted.

This is the beginning of a run on the BB's of their 100:1 leveraged "gold" holdings. Every Oz. of gold that they have repatriate means 100 Oz of paper gold HAS TO BE BOUGHT!

The Dutch will be next. They remember the Tulip Bubble and they don't want to get scammed a second time.

"All the King's horses and all the King's men couldn't put Humpty Dumpty back together again".

Like borrowing more and more to pay back earlier debts, shorting more and more will simply make the grave hole deeper and deeper.

Bally.

From King World News.

“In the case of Germany, the gold was sent abroad to France, and to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York during the Cold War because of fears the Russians may overrun Germany and seize the gold.

Those kind of fears evaporated a long time ago, and there is no reason for the Germans to have the gold elsewhere. In the last year, somebody in the ministry was interviewed and they were asked why the gold was still abroad? They said, ‘To facilitate trading.’ Well, this is exactly why the gold shouldn’t be elsewhere. It should be sitting there as the patrimony of the country, and it should be inviolate.

The latest round of gold repatriation was started by Hugo Chavez, and in Chavez’ case nobody knows if he is alive or dead right now. So we have seen a pattern from Saddam Hussein, to Gaddafi, and now Chavez, that anyone who interferes in the gold market or attempts to threaten the US dollar’s dominance ends up dead.

Ecuador decided to take a page out of Chavez’s book and ask for Ecuador’s gold back. So their gold was repatriated. The Germans and the Austrians were the latest to have public discussions asking the question, ‘Where is our gold?

Now the Germans have decided to take back their gold out of France, and apparently small portions of their gold will be sent from the Fed to Germany in coming years. I do believe a lot of Germany’s gold has been leased out internationally, through the bullion banks. So the reality is that the German gold hoard, which is supposed to be stored at the Fed, may already be gone.

There was the situation quite a few years ago when Drexel Burnham Lambert went down. They had borrowed 17 tons of gold from the Bank of Portugal, and when Drexel failed, the Bank of Portugal never got it back. Its claim evaporated when Drexel evaporated.

If you look at what happened to Portugal, the question becomes, should key bullion banks fail, would Germany and other nations forfeit their gold because the existing leases and claims would simply evaporate, as was the case with Portugal? This is something to consider. Countries such as Austria and others were getting paid to participate in gold leasing. I’m sure in the fine print it states if the bullion bank conducting the lease fails, the gold is lost, again, as was the case with Portugal and their 17 tons of lost gold.

I believe that most of the Western world’s gold, which is supposed to be in central bank vaults, has been leased out. Much of it is now in private hands in India, and what remains continues going East to China and other Asian vaults. So most of the Western gold has vanished from the vaults and it’s now just a book entry.

These various Western countries and bullion banks simply roll these leases over when they come due, and the gold never gets returned back to the countries. So it’s very interesting to see what’s going on. Obviously the trust is breaking down in the system.

Maybe we are going to see a bit of a run to the exits when more of this gold has to be repatriated, and the bullion banks are going to have to buy it from somewhere or fail. I just don’t think there is enough available physical gold out there to cover all of the outstanding loans. It’s just not out there in the marketplace to be acquired. For what it’s worth, all of this is very bullish for the gold price going forward.”

new
2x2's picture

last two days

 
0

have had weakness across the GLOBEX session. What will today bring?

The drop was a surprise, the recovery was a surprise, the second wind just now is a surprise.... what's going to lead into the hour off?

{C}

new
Orange's picture

Banned Ingredients that Are Still Legal in the U.S.

 
3

"including oily anal leakage" Now you know why Turdites. Stop eating fat free potato chips. Thank you FDA for doing all your hard work at keeping us unhealthy. Have a look at the article for others.

Ingredient: Olestra (aka Olean)

Found In: Fat-free potato chips

Why the U.S. Allows It: Procter & Gamble Co. took a quarter century and spent a half a billion dollars to create "light" chips that are supposedly better for you, Calton says. They may need another half a billion bucks to figure out how to deal with the embarrassing bathroom side effects (including oily anal leakage) that comes with consuming these products.

http://shine.yahoo.com/healthy-living/banned-ingredients-still-legal-u-1...

Syndicate contentComments for "A Glorious FUBM"