China, Gold and Reserve Currencies
Our pal, John Butler, has alerted us to this very interesting new report from the OMFIF (Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum). The report discusses the likelihood/probability that, one day soon, the world will be offered an additional "reserve currency", the Chinese renminbi.
Many of you will recall the podcast I had with John Butler back in May. If you need a refresher, here's a link. Obviously, the material covered is still relevant. http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/3835/tfmr-podcast-22-john-butler-author-golden-revolution
This new report covers some material that is near and dear to our hearts here in Turdville. However, since it was compiled for the OMFIF by the World Gold Council, some of its conclusions are debatable. Namely, the idea that a gold standard would be nearly impossible to resume and that fiat currency will likely continue to rule the day. Regardless, as John explained to me in the email below, once the "Golden Genie" is out of the bottle, it's going to be difficult for fiat currencies to compete. And why is China accumulating all of that gold, anyway? (800 metric tonnes in 2012 alone and that's just the amount they voluntarily reported!)
Hey there, Turd.
Happy New Year to you.
Thanks for your note. I consider the OMFIF report significant given the context. On it's own it would mean little as the OMFIF is strictly an advisory and discussion group. But when you consider the rapid rate of gold accumulation by China, the other BRICs and various other countries and the BRICs stated aim of reducing the use of the dollar as global reserves, well then the OMFIF report, as I argue in my brief comment here: http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/john-butler/breaking-news-omf... , represents a new, unfolding working arrangement for what the next major policy steps are likely to be. As my book argues, once the golden 'genie' is out of the bottle I doubt that it will be easily controlled and any attempt by currencies to 'share the stage' with gold will be short-lived. Eventually, gold will assume the dominant global reserve position and some sort of 'gold standard' will emerge. It may happen quickly in a crisis or it may unfold over a longer period of time in a more controlled fashion. I don't have the answer to that although something tells me that the occasional crisis will be unavoidable.
Indeed, a crisis may be brewing just now as I read that the Bundesbank has decided to repatriate Germany's gold: http://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/reserven-bundesbank-will... But is the gold available? Will the US, the UK and France deliver? On what time frame? This one will be interesting to watch; we're not talking about Venezuela or Ecuador here, we're talking Germany.
2013 is off to an exciting start!
Here's some additional background before you get started. First, here's a link to the OMFIF site:
And if you're not familiar with the WGC, here's a link to their site:
and a video from their site discussing the report:
Finally, here's the report link in pdf format so that you can print a hard copy if so desired:
And here it is in scribd. Please take the time to read and comprehend this report.