Second

the day of reckoning is still coming.

Silver66

You've done a great job in 2012, boss - keep up the good work in 2013!

Harvey says the gold COT cannot get any more bullish than this week.  Gold closed down for five weeks straight.  Japan's national debt is seen topping ¥1 quadrillion.  Lots of "generalists" contacting silver miners.  CME cut the margin on gold.  Spain's property woes to continue for years.  Europe experiences a liquidity shortfall.  BOJ needs to print 2X the annual JGB issuance.    Mississippi River shipping around Illinois to shut down by 3-4 Jan.  DS rant on the planned demolition of the world economy.  All this and more on...the Harvey Report! http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/253557#comment-253557

DayStar

Turd thanks for a great year of posts. 

Can you comment on this statement/question:  it's hard to believe the COT when the commercial net silver short swings almost 9,000 contracts to the positive , but the price barely moves. How is that possible?

thanks and happy new year

I'm so glad that all is well!

Congratulations on your new son!

10 oz Year of the Dragon coin for him, awesome!

I hope your wife survived the birthing process.

Achmachat, Congrats! Hope you get his personal stash up to his body weight, and keep adding to match his weight as he grows.

Turd, you are noticeably quite on any explosive and historic events in 2013. You actually appear rather temperate in your views of the future only referencing some of the potential catalyst of price moves in the precious metals; staying away from any obviously bullish prognostications. There is no mention of historic behind the scene maneuverings that will catapult price in multiples rather than simply dollars. No mention of historic price moves sooner rather than later. I wonder if this is simply a change of approach or if it reflects change in sentiment. I won't go so far as saying you appear deflated, but you certainly seem more measured.  It will certainly be interesting to see what the future holds. The catalyst you mention have all been with us for some time, either explicitly or implicitly, yet price has not moved. Perhaps once we move into the new calendar year, these factors will influence price as you predict or perhaps the metals will continue to lag this communities expectations. I appreciate the great effort you and everyone put into this site. Happy new year. The one thing we all can be sure about is 2013 will surely not be boring.

Nice to see a post from you. I guess you are quietly going good work behind the scenes, so appreciation for you and whatever you do for Turd and this site.

"but also pushed for a state sales tax and corporate income tax.^[3]  ...Mrs. Ferguson's infamously generous granting of pardons was her way of relieving the overcrowded conditions in Texas prisons... rumors persisted that pardons were available in exchange for cash payments to the governor’s husband. In 1936, voters passed an amendment to the state constitution stripping the governor of the power to issue pardons and granting that power to a politically independent Texas Board of Pardons and Paroles (see Capital punishment in Texas). ^[9]

^{---------------------------------------------------------------------------}

^{Hmm...a big-taxing,  pardon-selling pol so corrupt as to require Texans to strip powers from the Governor...}

^{No thanks.}

Hey dude - cool off.  You're Trolling 4 sure.

"I won't go so far as saying you appear deflated, but you certainly seem more measured."

You just called the Turd "deflated".  You know you did - so don't even bother to argue the point.  Are you out of your mind?????  The way I read his blog he seems elated.  Just can't see the immediate future.  But nobody gets tomorrow's WSJ - get it?

My .02 - get a life.  Seems you weren't the brightest bulb in propaganda school.  We see right through you - try a different tactic next time.

Keep stacking :-)

Armstrong seems to be right. My calculation was the same once fiscal cliff became reality, just did not want to spoil the atmosphere here. But a dose of reality would help to bear the coming months.

June-August 2013 looks like the time for an event or accumulation of events  that would finally unleash USG debt creation into the next HIGHER gear after a brief pause during  H1 2013. And consequently, pull up metals. In the meantime,  we can continue education, and the ones who have spare paper, add to stacks.

QE is not covering/barely covering  the loss of money created by deleveraging, so there can not be any real inflationary effect from it. More so, while deleveraging destroys money-reduces real  supply in economy, the QE money sits in FED in bank reserves and does not enter economy- until new bank lending counters deleveraging-  hence the drastic drop in money velocity.  There is no multiplier applicable to to QE money, while in "normal" times banks would lend out 10 times more than FED infuses into banking system against USG debt. Today the multiplier is may be 1 (see pictures below) and loan growth speed is far below precrisis levels despite huge excess reserves.

What gold price is measuring, is the amount of high power money ( issued by FED vs. USG debt=USG public debt ) by now plus discounted future USG debt flows. If the speed of USG debt generation will fall below certain limit, they will have neutral or negative effect to gold prices due to discounting. The factor by which future USG debt flows are discounted into gold prices  has so far escaped me, but I will figure it out one day before August 2013, as gold prices and debt development will indicate it.

QE: since 2009, banks have created net 2 trillion USD in loans:

But FED has created for banks about 1,5 trillion- so in fact, QE is almost 1 to 1  transferred to net loans . No new circulating loan money is created in banks themselves (well, about 500 billion in 3 years, or 170 billion/year).

Before recession, this speed of new money creation by banks was 4 trillion a year (and FED was not adding any QEs) :

So today WITH QE banks are creating money at a rate about 1/4 th of what it was prior to crisis ( 1 trillion billion/4 trillion) . See the last chart. Where would the hyperinflation come from? If FED gave money directly to people, what would they do? Spend, partly, or pay down debts, annulling FED efforts same way its happening now.

Re buying hallmarked pre 1920 silver, I am not sure that I can purchase 1 ounce of junk silver (assuming you mean 0.925 or above otherwise kind of pointless) for around spot price.

I have certainly never seen it, I see a lot of old collectable coins but that's a very dicey game as they are extremely expensive and their collectors worth is best left to those who really know that market inside and out.