The Twelve Pains of Turdville

The Twelve Pains of Christmas could easily be The Twelve Pains of Turdville. Hmmm...there's an idea.

Let's give this a try...

On the 12th day in Turdville, I lost my sanity...

12 Broken Trendlines

11 Failed Supports

10 Dried-up Sharpies

9 Painful Headslaps

8 Flying Monkeys

7 Know-it-all Trolls

6 Shattered Rulers

5 Worthless CFTC Commissioners

4 Major Bullion Banks

3 Worthless Options

2 Daily Raids

and a Major TBTF Bank that holds a concentrated naked short position in silver that is roughly equivalent to 25% of the total annual mine production but our corrupt regulators refuse to do anything about it. Even when presented with documented and airtight evidence of the lies and deception, they dawdle and allow the theft and manipulation to continue.

Ahhhhhh.....<deep, cleansing breath>. That was somewhat cathartic. I feel much better now.

Oh look. The metals are down again today. I'm sorry if this offends you...but I really don't care. I know what I know and it's this: One day soon (maybe next year, maybe 2014, who knows?), the metals are going to reset at a value that is multiples higher. Multiples higher. Of this, I am 100% certain. So why would I worry about whether gold is at 1675 or 1625 or 1710? Why would I care if silver trades this week at 31 or 35? It doesn't matter.

And again...I am sick and tired of the paper traders who blame me for their losses. Someone who only occasionally swings by this site and thinks that their getting "trading info" is doomed to failure. If you want trading info, you should be visiting "Pailin's Corner" in the silver forum. That is where you find trading information on this site. And if you think you'll offend me by posting something to the effect that "Turd is only good if you fade him because he's wrong 99% of the time", you've got another thing coming, too. I gave up on making trading recommendations back in April but if you find value in fading what I post, good for you. Knock yourself out. I'm glad you find me good for something.

Once again, all that matters is this: The Western World is rapidly racing to devalue their currencies in a desperate attempt to keep their economies and governments afloat. The Creditor Nations are, just as rapidly, exchanging their quickly devaluing fiat currency reserves for hard assets. One day soon (again, maybe 2013, maybe 2014), The Creditor Nations will unveil a new asset-backed global trade settlement system. Fiat currencies will collapse and the conversion values of gold and silver will reset multiples higher. If you decide to blow yourself up in the interim by greedily trading paper, that's your problem, not mine. That said, I know that many of you will still try to beat The Con Men at their own game and for this purpose, I have personally set up for you the Andrew Maguire Trading Service. If you're trading and NOT using Andy's skills, wisdom and experience to guide you....well you know what they say about a fool and his money.

In the meantime, this current action in the metals is nothing but another wash, rinse and repeat cycle to which we've sadly all grown accustomed. The Cartels accumulated massive short positions in both metals ahead of the announcement of QE∞. They capped price in the days following and have been desperately trying to force long capitulation and the attendant HFT momo selling in the weeks since. All of this so that the banks can cover a bunch of their shorts before the next, big UPleg. They are finally being successful this week and, frankly, their success should come as no surprise to any of us.

None of this changes the long-term picture, however. The metals are still going to be charging higher in 2013 based upon the fundamentals and my long-awaited "historic" changes.

And I should probably, once again, remind you of the consequences of all this "fiscal cliff" nonsense. All outcomes are precious metal positive.

  1. Tax Hike and No Spending Cuts. Crushes U.S. economy. QE is increased due to less tax revenue and increased government debt.
  2. Tax Hike and Some Spending Cuts. Not significantly different from #1.
  3. Tax Hike, Some Spending Cuts and a $2T Hike in The Debt Ceiling. Again, how does anyone rationally construe this as "metal negative"? The U.S. fiscal 2013 debt is already on a run rate of $1.7T+. Do you actually think a "deal" of this nature will magically make this deficit smaller? Seriously?? Dude, if so, pass that pipe over here. You're obviously smoking some good shit.

Finally, a few words about my "trolls". It seems that lately, every time there's a sustained period of downticks, the trolls crawl out from under their bridges, replete with new riddles to solve. Just when I think I've seen and heard them all, they magically come up with a new one. Yesterday, despite 2+ years of evidence to the contrary, I was described as a mean, name-calling and shallow jerk. Once that card was played, it then descended into the standard "Turd's so stupid...and greedy...and disingenuous...and, well, you get the picture. Mister Hyde keeps telling me I should ban these people from the site simply because they're such a detriment to the mission and, frankly, they do get under my skin sometimes and cause me additional stress that I clearly don't need. My policy has always been to very rarely ban anyone, mainly because I don't have anything to hide and I don't want this place to simply be an echo chamber. That said, though, I see Hyde's point and I'm sure that many of you feel the same way. So, if some of your favorite trolls begin to "disappear" over the coming days, it's only because I've made the Stalin-esque decision to whack them for the greater, collective good. (Don't worry. They'll all be buried in a common grave on the edge of town and you'll be allowed to stop by from time to time and drop a few rose petals in remembrance if so inclined.)

Whatever. I've rambled on now for what seems like an eternity so I think I'll stop here. I'll update some charts soon if I think I see something interesting. For now, I'm looking to buy the dip in silver as long as paper price stays above the 30.80 lows of 11/2. IF silver were to break that level and close below for a day or two I'll probably hold off on any future purchases until the shakeout ends. In gold, I couldn't care less. Whether or not you and I pay $1700 or $1600 or $1800 will seem insignificant when price resets. Just buy more whenever you can.

Have a magnificent day.

TF

404 Comments

Ferd Torgerson's picture

My Last Ferdst

On my honor.

Ferd

Grublux's picture

Furst

Sweet!

Ah.  I'll take second...

achmachat's picture

yay

love it, that Turd provides us with this corner of sanity!

oh.. and: THURD!

TreeTop Dweller's picture

Merry Christmas

Would one day like to be in the top 5!

wildstylechef's picture

almost turd

merry top 5

All I want for Christmas is a Downgrade for the USA

rocoach's picture

thirst!

Keep watching that MACD!

mack's picture

top ten

yousirs  dph sure pours a mean martini in the speak but my head is clear todzay .

ag1969's picture

The Fiscal Cliff Is A

The Fiscal Cliff Is A Diversion: The Derivatives Tsunami and the Dollar Bubble

The “fiscal cliff” is another hoax designed to shift the attention of policymakers, the media, and the attentive public, if any, from huge problems to small ones.

The fiscal cliff is automatic spending cuts and tax increases in order to reduce the deficit by an insignificant amount over ten years if Congress takes no action itself to cut spending and to raise taxes. In other words, the “fiscal cliff” is going to happen either way.

The problem from the standpoint of conventional economics with the fiscal cliff is that it amounts to a double-barrel dose of austerity delivered to a faltering and recessionary economy. Ever since John Maynard Keynes, most economists have understood that austerity is not the answer to recession or depression.

Regardless, the fiscal cliff is about small numbers compared to the Derivatives Tsunami or to bond market and dollar market bubbles.

The fiscal cliff requires that the federal government cut spending by $1.3 trillion over ten years. The Guardian reports that means the federal deficit has to be reduced about $109 billion per year or 3 percent of the current budget. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/nov/27/fiscal-cliff-explained-spending-cuts-tax-hikes More simply, just divide $1.3 trillion by ten and it comes to $130 billion per year. This can be done by simply taking a three month vacation each year from Washington’s wars.

The Derivatives Tsunami and the bond and dollar bubbles are of a different magnitude.
Last June 5 in “Collapse At Hand” http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2012/06/05/collapse-at-hand/ I pointed out that according to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency’s fourth quarter report for 2011, about 95% of the $230 trillion in US derivative exposure was held by four US financial institutions: JP Morgan Chase Bank, Bank of America, Citibank, and Goldman Sachs.

Prior to financial deregulation, essentially the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act and the non-regulation of derivatives–a joint achievement of the Clinton administration and the Republican Party–Chase, Bank of America, and Citibank were commercial banks that took depositors’ deposits and made loans to businesses and consumers and purchased Treasury bonds with any extra reserves.

With the repeal of Glass-Steagall these honest commercial banks became gambling casinos, like the investment bank, Goldman Sachs, betting not only their own money but also depositors money on uncovered bets on interest rates, currency exchange rates, mortgages, and prices of commodities and equities.

These bets soon exceeded many times not only US GDP but world GDP. Indeed, the gambling bets of JP Morgan Chase Bank alone are equal to world Gross Domestic Product.

According to the first quarter 2012 report from the Comptroller of the Currency, total derivative exposure of US banks has fallen insignificantly from the previous quarter to $227 trillion. The exposure of the 4 US banks accounts for almost of all of the exposure and is many multiples of their assets or of their risk capital.

The Derivatives Tsunami is the result of the handful of fools and corrupt public officials who deregulated the US financial system. Today merely four US banks have derivative exposure equal to 3.3 times world Gross Domestic Product. When I was a US Treasury official, such a possibility would have been considered beyond science fiction.

Hopefully, much of the derivative exposure somehow nets out so that the net exposure, while still larger than many countries’ GDPs, is not in the hundreds of trillions of dollars. Still, the situation is so worrying to the Federal Reserve that after announcing a third round of quantitative easing, that is, printing money to buy bonds–both US Treasuries and the banks’ bad assets–the Fed has just announced that it is doubling its QE 3 purchases.

In other words, the entire economic policy of the United States is dedicated to saving four banks that are too large to fail. The banks are too large to fail only because deregulation permitted financial concentration, as if the Anti-Trust Act did not exist.

Read more:

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2012/12/17/the-fiscal-cliff-is-a-diversion-the-derivatives-tsunami-and-the-dollar-bubble/

mack's picture

whack a troll

Great news Turd .

JimmyTheHand's picture

Hahaha... Thanks Turd

That post made my day! 

Silverman's picture

Technical point of view

I think 1660 can't hold like 30.50 can't hold. Because daily stochastics still not oversold for gold and weekly stochastics very long way to go to oversold area. I'll surprised if 1630 holds. Also weekly MACD just pointing down. I can't tell exact bottom area. Only thing we can do is wait for weekly indicators get in oversold area. Then it will stay there for few days. Finally it will point up. That's the BUY area. 

ivars's picture

Hit the bottom of the fork second time

New lows for silver, but moved back up, staying within the fork

Punk-Assets's picture

You know you are immune to

You know you are immune to the sell offs when you get giddy and BTFD. I thank Mr. Jim Sinclair for his wisdom. My wife still worries when shes writing those big checks and sending wires. But this time next year when the C rise in gold is on its way she'll once again be glad we bought. I told her this consolidation could go on for a few years. Its all good. 

Irish-Mic's picture

A trader’s perspective on these extreme sell-offs…

A trader’s perspective on these extreme sell-offs…

Technical Gold Trader Gary Savage: “Big Players Use Panic Selling Events To Enter Billion Dollar Positions In Gold & Miners”

December 19, 2012 | By Tekoa Da Silva | Leave a Comment

Gary Savage

**This interview was recorded on Monday, just before Tuesday’s “flash crash” in gold**

“I had the great opportunity once again to speak with technical gold trader Gary Savage. Gary publishes the “Smart Money Tracker,” which is a daily market commentary and trading service which has outperformed most of the world’s hedge funds in 2011 and 2012.

Principle subjects discussed during the interview were gold and gold mining shares.

Starting off I asked Gary his thoughts on the recent and extreme sell-offs in the metals and miners. He said, “Big players will drive the market below a technical level, and that will trigger stops with the technical traders, so you’ll get a big panic selling event, and the big players use that in order to get into large positions. I think that’s what’s happened with GDX on Nov. 14th. and 15th. I think there was a big player or players that needed to move about $2 billion or $3 billion into the sector, and the only way to do that was to trigger a panic selling event. I did the math on it and it was almost $3 billion over that two day span…They broke the miners out of that bull flag to create a selling panic, and that Gold allowed a couple big players to move a lot of money into the market.”

He further added that, “Big players, that’s how they have to get into and out of positions. You can’t just buy $2 billion worth of gold without having somebody willing to sell it, otherwise you’re going to move the market against you badly, and you’re going to get a bad fill…[and] If a big player like George Soros wants to put $3 billion to work in the sector, he’s either going to have to enter very slowly, or you’ve got to trigger some sort of a selling climax so that you can get that volume that you need to move that amount of capital into the market.”

When asked what gold investors need to keep in mind during these periods, Gary indicated that, “You have to do the opposite of what your emotions are telling you, and your emotions are telling you the miners are terrible stocks…but that’s when you have to buy. When nobody wants it.”

Additionally, Gary was kind of enough to share one of his long term charts on gold(which carries a $10k price target), to which he elaborated on during the interview.”

http://bullmarketthinking.com/technical-gold-trader-gary-savage-big-players-use-panic-selling-events-to-enter-billion-dollar-positions-in-gold-miners/

Cheers

Turd Ferguson's picture

For fun

MODERATOR

Here's a sample of the email I routinely receive. Just opened it two minutes ago. From Adrian in Australia:

"I am frustrated that you practice such strict censorship regarding posts, I also find it ironic and hypocritical. I had genuine questions, I agree with most content and simply wanted to participate in this community. Despite the fact I agree with you mostly, its better I know now rather than 2 years down the track that your an insecure loser..."

I post this not to complain but to re=emphasize the point:

EVERY NEW MEMBER HERE IS PUT ON MODERATION. NOT BECAUSE I'M AFRAID OF ANYTHING BUT TO CONTROL SPAM. DO YOU REALIZE THAT THERE ARE "BUSINESSES" OUT THERE WHOSE ONLY PURPOSE IS TO SPAM BULLETIN AND MESSAGE BOARDS WITH ADS FOR VIAGRA AND UG BOOTS? I DIDN'T KNOW THIS UNTIL I STARTED THIS SITE. WITHOUT THIS MODERATION, EACH AND EVERY PAGE OF COMMENTS WOULD HAVE AT LEAST ONE OF THESE ADS. THEREFORE, EVERY NEW USER POST IS BLOCKED UNTIL I CAN SEE IT AND PUBLISH IT. NO WEASLY INTENT. JUST ME TRYING TO IMPROVE YOUR "USER EXPERIENCE". CAPICHE?? GOOD. 

Fat Willie's picture

Freedom

Does anyone else ever wonder why there are never any new laws that actually make us more free?

Silverman's picture

My Worst Fear Theodore

My Worst Fear

 | 

December 17, 2012 - 11:11am
Facebook Twitter Forward Print
 

Recently, I have received a good number of emails containing conversations between readers and CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton about the allegations of a silver price manipulation because of the large concentrated COMEX short position held by JPMorgan. Chilton had previously led the move to begin the current silver investigation in September 2008 and has always been quick to respond to those writing to him, a rarity for high officials. I couldn’t help but notice that Commissioner Chilton had recently begun to say things that seemed to try to explain away the allegations of a silver manipulation, much different from his former stance of promising to look into it. I found this change disturbing and it has influenced my thinking that the CFTC would never do anything about the silver manipulation. One particular response from Chilton to a reader prompted me to write to the Commissioner myself (aside from sending him all my articles) -

http://www.silverseek.com/commentary/my-worst-fear-8306

¤'s picture

The Twelve Trolls of Christmas

tyberious's picture

Sanity vs Convection

Chose sanity!

SRSrocco's picture

A FEW WORDS ON THE MINERS..

LET ME CLARIFY MY POSITION ON THE GOLD & SILVER MINERS...

I knew that I wouldn't receive high praise for my recent guest post and article SILVER DECEPTIONS: LARGE SURPLUSES & LOW PRODUCTION COST.  I did receive some positive email responses, but overall I imagine those who are holding the gold & silver miners didn't like to read the truth.  And that truth is... the miners' margins have been crushed due to lower prices paid for silver and gold and higher production costs.

That being said, I actually believe the miners will be a good place to be when the world's bond markets collapse.  You see the bond markets are supposed to be the place where investors can place their capital-assets that will be returned in the future with a small percent of gain.

However, that is no longer the case.  The bond markets are not a place of short and long term liquidity... they are a huge ponzi scheme that is being kept alive by the MASSIVE INTEREST RATE SWAP MARKET. 

Once the world's bond markets disintegrate or are backed by gold and etc, then the real value of the gold and silver miners will be understood.

I believe the gold and silver miners will see tremendous gains within the next several years.  We don't know exactly which ones may feel the negative impacts of nationalization, but overall they will do excellent.  The only problem I see going forward for the miners is in the longer term time frame... say 5, 7 or 10 years.

At this time the problems of energy will really start to reveal its ugly head and it will become increasingly difficult to keep all the present and forecasted future mines functioning.  This is the aspect that I believe hardly no one in the mining industry is paying attention to.

I just wanted to clarify my position on the miners.  I don't really blame the miners for the crushed margins... that is due to the ongoing manipulation of the precious metal markets.

Revelation's picture

Seasons Greetings from Rothschild

Revelation's picture

PM Cartel Attack Theme Song

AlexCojones's picture

Pretty Damn Funny

Read this comment over at ZH.

"I'm not sure how much longer the "Oh, Great... metals are cheaper again today....BTFD" meme will continue to work.  Seems like everyone over at TFmetals is on suicide watch."

Hope nobody is taking SSRIs this holiday season.

IMHO, metals will make a turn for home late in the 4th quarter, like Andre Luck  and the Colts, maybe after Christmas, maybe over New Year's during a couple of the Bowl Games.

$1700...then $1750....then $1805.....Then $1913 (LOL).....on the way to 2 grand, just in time for the Hundred Year Anniversary of The Birth of The Creature From Jekyll Island.

Which reminds me Turd: Can you G. Edward Griffin on a Podcast?

From Wiki-Diki:

"G. Edward Griffin (born November 7, 1931) is an American film producer, author, and political lecturer.[1] He is perhaps best known as the author of The Creature from Jekyll Island (1994), a critique of much modern economic theory and practice, specifically the Federal Reserve System.

AC

Horst's picture

So, if some of your favorite

So, if some of your favorite trolls begin to "disappear" over the coming days, it's only because I've made the Stalin-esque decision to whack them for the greater, collective good. (Don't worry. They'll all be buried in a common grave on the edge of town and you'll be allowed to stop by from time to time and drop a few rose petals in remembrance if so inclined.)

I'm beginning to like the guy again. Morbid humour is one quality I share with him.

Excalibur's picture

Trolls

Turd, you have been very lenient of trolls, but an end of year cull is a good idea to keep the population in check. We can be sure others will take their place. You're doing your bit for blogodiversity by creating a mixed habitat.

I salute your good humor and day in day out energy and eloquence.

Road_Scholar's picture

Stacked!

I feel a FUBM day- keep stacking!

2012-04-28-22-29-29.jpg?w=700&h=

TJeffson's picture

Revelation....

Benny Hill was hilarious back in the day.  Even my dad would watch that show and laugh.   Thanks for posting that theme song. 

¤'s picture

More BS about to be added to the mix...

SEC credit rating agency study is ‘regulatory threat’ to raters

December 19, 2012, 11:24 AM

The threat to credit rating agencies is real.

At least that’s the opinion of Jaret Seiberg, analyst at Guggenheim Securities, after the Securities and Exchange Commission late Tuesday released a study on credit rater compensation models. The study didn’t make a particular recommendation, but called for an agency roundtable to discuss various alternative models.

“This is a short-term win for S&P and Moody’s as they have the most to lose if the SEC uses its authority … to require the first rating on structured finance products to be randomly assigned,” Seiberg said in a report Wednesday. “Longer-term, this does little to change the regulatory threat to the incumbent players. There are now legitimate alternatives to the status quo that are on the table.”

The study has the largest impact on the big three credit rating firms, McGraw-Hill Cos. Inc.’s/quotes/zigman/233490/quotes/nls/mhpMHP-0.06% Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s Corp./quotes/zigman/267181/quotes/nls/mcoMCO+0.88%, and Fimalac SA’s Fitch.

It was required by the post-crisis Dodd-Frank Act. The provision in the statute, introduced by Sen. Al Franken, D-Minn., could fundamentally transform the way agencies rate complex structured-finance products — such as the mortgage securities at the center of the financial crisis.

The statute required the SEC to consider a number of alternative models to how ratings are crafted. Currently, the rating agencies compete for that business from companies, something that helped lead to inflated ratings that didn’t reflect the true risks. The goal of the various models is to separate the hiring of the rating firm from the payment of the rating.

One model, one considered by Franken, would require the SEC to create a government-mandated clearinghouse, through which credit raters would be randomly assigned to handle structured finance products.

Another model considered would have sophisticated investors create and operate an investor-owned credit rating agency. Firms seeking a rating would need to obtain two ratings — one from the investor-owned rating agency and another from another rater.

The SEC also offered a “stand-alone” model, where firms would continue to pick their raters. However, with this approach, the rater would be compensated through transaction fees and those fees would pay for the ratings.

Yet another approach would encourage unsolicited ratings by giving raters who conduct these ratings access to information that the initial rating was based on. Backers of this approach say it can reduce conflicts because unsolicited ratings provide a check against biased ratings.

A designation model would give all credit raters the option of rating a new structured finance product and investors would direct fees to the rater of their choice based on the investors perception of the quality of the research underlying the ratings.

– Ronald D. Orol

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2012/12/19/sec-credit-rating-agency-study-is-regulatory-threat-to-raters/

Beastly Stack's picture

Thunderlips

Did anyone just see this clown on CnBC?

1.5 billion fine levied against UBS for LIBOR.

He actually slipped at one point,started to say metals but he said megabanks.What a joke!

Turd Ferguson's picture

Crude

MODERATOR

Again, until it breaks $90 and stays there for a while, this is all just noise. Don't get carried away.

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