Buy The Dip & Buy The Rally

Though Wednesday's are typically down days, the charts suggest that you should keep an eye on things.

In the larger picture, nothing much has changed. The pullback, that began on 10/4 with the BLSBS report for September, concluded with the spec washout lows of 11/2, following the release of the October BLSBS. Both gold and silver retraced roughly 50% of their moves from mid-August and have rebalanced some of the spec long vs Cartel short positions.

So, where do we go from here? Both metals could simply continue to trade sideways for a while, in a tight range between 1705 and 1730 in gold and 31.60 and 32.60 in silver. Maybe they will? There is still hope, however, for a breakout. Though there are clearly well-defined caps on the charts, pressure continues to mount for the UPside breakout I've been expecting/hoping to see. My London contacts continue to report "robust" physical demand at each and every fix. Let's see if this doesn't soon bleed over into the paper markets.

The main fundamental story I'd like to emphasize today is this: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-13/us-budget-deficit-soars-october-government-spends-over-300-billion-one-month. And here are the two charts that accompanied the story at ZH:

As Egon Spengler would say, "this is extraordinarily bad". The first chart shows total U.S. government spending for each October since the turn of the century. Note that the total spending outlay for 10/12 was nearly as high as the disastrous level seen during The Great Financial Crisis in 2008.

Next, look at the chart on the right. This chart shows the total monthly deficit for each October since 2000. Of course, deficit equals spending minus tax revenues. At $120,000,000,000, the shortfall/deficit for October 2012 is a remarkable 22% higher than October 2011. Since October is the first month of fiscal 2013 for the U.S. government, it is safe to assume that the total deficit for the fiscal year will greatly exceed the deficit for 2011, likely coming in somewhere between 1.3 and 1.5 TRILLION DOLLARS.

Again, let me ask you, from where will the funding of this shortfall come? The republocrats would have you believe that we are borrowing it from China. That's sounds cute and handy and it has an easy-to-understand, populist tone. The problem is, like most republocrat statements, it's not true. ( http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-11/china-s-u-s-debt-holdings-aren-t-threat-pentagon-says.html)

So, again, I ask you, from where will this money come? If you answered "QE∞", you're finally beginning to catch on. All of the nonsense, the SPIN and the BS that makes QE∞ out to be some type of "economic stimulus" program must be ignored. Quantitative Easing is simply a backdoor system by which The Fed directly funds the over-spending of the U.S. government. The Fed buys crapola off of the balance sheets of the Primary Dealers and these same dealers turn around and use these funds to support/buy treasuries at auction. The bond market continues to magically levitate, interest rates stay low and the U.S. government continues along its merry, Keynesian path.

Eventually, this will all come crashing down in an extraordinarily painful, inflationary collapse. Until then, because each new dollar printed is so destructive to the value of each and every existing dollar, you must continue to accumulate physical precious metal. Consistently exchanging your devaluing fiat for tangible, real assets is the only personal financial protection that you have against this madness.

Buy some more today.

TF

212 Comments

Istack's picture

It's nice to be

in the center of the precious metals universe.

Thanks for keeping us all informed Turd!

looks like a gold and silver universe to me. 

Beautiful!

Mr. Fix's picture

We missed you--I stack,.

At least things are back to normal here in "Turdville".

Now , my day can begin.yes

Have a nice day.smiley

Double Bogey's picture

Third?

Picked up 20 Morgans yesterday at $31 each from my LCS. A little more than I wanted to pay, but alot of them were AU and very pretty. He reports it's been very quiet, with more sellers than buyers. He had some really nice $20 Liberty gold pieces, but the premium seemed high, asking $2100.  I've got enough gold to be dangerous. I want enough silver to be extremely dangerous. Still hoping to live long enough to prove to friends and family that I'm smarter than I look.

Some say I'd almost have to be. 'sigh'

mack's picture

do i make the top 10?

do i make the top 10?

BB's picture

Tooth?

OMG! Tooth?

Fr. Bill's picture

Well, doo doo ... Sixth

First place in the que is the best,
And second or third is still blest.
But if you are slower,
you'll only sink lower,
Your ego profoundly depressed.
jamato31's picture

I hope the mining shares

I hope the mining shares recent performance does not indicate their expected future revenues. wtf does it take to get some normal action, anywhere?

silver66's picture

Top 10 ??

my lucky day

Revelation's picture

Yes We Can!

Total%20Returns.jpg

Cleburne61's picture

Wish you could remove up to 10% more silver from circulation?

First of all, I want to say that though this is written to fellow Christians, it can work for anyone.  I’ve thought about this long and hard, and to my surprise, I haven’t seen anyone else post anything of the like on this site.  So I’ll share my idea and experience with the TF community.

A few years back, in the height of the “crash JPM, buy silver” campaign, I thought to myself, “man, I’ve spent nearly every available free cent at this point that I can on silver….but I wish I could do more.”

And then it hit me: I COULD be doing more!

Being a devout Christian, I try to always tithe 10% of my family’s after-tax earnings to my local church(and a few Christian charities).  However, I always gave them federal reserve notes(FRN’s)….and doing so made me sad.  I knew that the end of the Keynesian experiment would bring hardship to my fellow believers and our churches, who never saw this coming. 

One day I realized though, that I didn’t have to give these people federal reserve notes at all!  In fact, I could simultaneously take more metal out of circulation, protect my fellow Christians, and honor God in his command to tithe….by doing so in silver instead!

First lemme tell you a few things you’ll need to do, Christian or not, if you’re gonna make this work for you:

  1. Right off the bat, you need to sit down and have a conversation with your pastor/charity chairman/or session member about what you intend to do, and why. Let’s face it, we’re the 1% who gets it, they might not get it yet, but could easily be made to see the light if you talk with them.
  2. Ask them if their day to day finances are well within the black, and if they could afford to take every single ounce you give them and put it into an emergency reserve. If these precious treasures get pawned at the local shop, they’ll have even less cash than they would’ve if you’d simply given them FRN’s.
  3. Ask them where they intend to store it. Tell them the whole point of doing this is to remove any risk to the church/charity whatsoever, and putting it back into an insolvent banking system will only add angst to something which should be giving them peace of mind.
  4. Find out what their budget is….then try to guestimate what they’d need to have a buffer of at least 3 months(but preferably 6 or 12) in a financial crisis, and start stacking toward the number of ounces it would take for them to meet that crucial budget in that timeframe.
  5. I won’t give tax advice(but I have asked my own tax man about it beforehand), and I was told if I wanted a receipt for tax write-offs, they’d have to disclose the asset itself and not just the dollar value to the IRS, in other words…the receipt couldn’t say $1000.  It would have to say $1000 in silver coins.  In such an event, you’d have to decide for yourself what you want more: privacy and discretion, or the write-off.  Contact your CPA for any advice.

That’s it!  Then go to your local coin shop, or online dealership after sewing up those loose ends…and enjoy putting more silver bullets into the banking oligarchy’s plans, as you honor God and protect those you care about. 

After all, we shouldn’t just seek to look out for ourselves here: we should be helping to plan for others who don’t yet know to plan for themselves.

Grublux's picture

Miners

From other thread.  They should turn up soon

babaganoush2307's picture

Somebody said..

...that they are about to get out of their mining shares in the last thread.  I agree, all of my stocks have not made me any money over the years while all the physical that I have has more than doubled since I started stacking.  I have been holding on to the mining shares in the same hopes that everyone else has, that they will explode with a PM explosion but at this point I think I am just gonna ride the PM bull and scrap the shares.  Years of waiting has caused me to believe that I will not be making any money in these rigged markets anytime soon.  Would much rather have the physical and continue to increase my investment 100%.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Well, I doubt this leads anywhere pleasant...

MODERATOR

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/palestinianauthority/9677782/Hamas-military-chief-killed-in-Gaza-air-strike.html

&

http://www.debka.com/article/22524/Israel-air-strikes-continue-after-death-of-Hamas-military-chief-Ahmed-Jabari-Hamas-It’s-war

 "Israel may also expect repercussions from Cairo since Jabari was a favorite of the ruling Muslim Brotherhood and his death occurred the day after Egypt brokered a ceasefire in the missile offensive from the Gaza Strip."

Monedas's picture

Extra Sharp Cheddar Cheese Report !

I recently bragged I bought a two pound "ingot" of Cabot "White" in clear cellophane wrap at Walmart for $5.98 ! Apparently, that was an introductory price ! This week I found the Cabot ESC in white or yellow for $7.97 !  Compare with Costco Tillamook ESC, yellow, black plastic wrap for around $9 and Cabot ESC, white, dipped in black wax for a little over $10 ! Pretty expensive parafin wax ?  It's all good !       Monedas       1929        Comedy Jihad When Monedas Brags It's An In Your Face Brag .... Not A Brag Disguised As A Help Me Out Question World Tour    devil

babaganoush2307's picture

Silver on crack again...

...look at the charts, it's bouncing off the walls indecision

Fr. Bill's picture

Exchanging devaluaing fiat for PMs

Mayor Turd wrote:
Until then, because each new dollar printed is so destructive to the value of each and every existing dollar, you must continue to accumulate physical precious metal. Consistently exchanging your devaluing fiat for tangible, real assets is the only personal financial protection that you have against this madness.

I followed the freegold discussion until my eyes came near to permanently crossing.  But, one notion from it stuck, mostly 'cause I had already embraced it some time ago, viz. that gold is a conserver of wealth.

No, I'm not wealthy.  I (like all of us) have some wealth, but let's call it "assets" or dollars. Most of what I get in any month is spent for needful things.  But, not all.  And that is what I convert into PMs, just as I converted an inheritance from Dad into PMs a few years ago.

In two weeks, I'll get another rent check (Lord willing), and that will wend its way into BV silver, as previous rent checks have done.

CaribSurfKing's picture

UH OH, thunderlips blames the law and government

Hey Bart, when you get those "Silver is about to be smashed" emails, can you set up your outlook client to auto forward them to me so I can get my SLV PUT orders on!!!

القراع عصفور's picture

i prefer to be last

but not trying to steal your glory Istack!  i posted some stuff on the last thread just now.  my ego is so small that i will leave it there.  i am trying to set a good example.

SIlverbee's picture

Could the cap be about to break?

Or is the NASCAR grazing the wall?

Missiondweller's picture

Great graph Turd!

That could be a top post on its own.

babaganoush2307's picture

Today is another perfect ZH example of...

20121113_Silv_0.png

...the 2% pump and dump, wash rinse and repeat. 

Live 24 hours silver chart [ Kitco Inc. ]

Icarus's picture

Deficit

I wouldn't read too much into the October deficit numbers.

In my opinion they are just playing games .  Some September expenses were just delayed into October to make the deficit numbers for Fiscal Year 2012 (which ended on 30 September) look better than they really were going into the election.

SSDD,

Icarus

agNau's picture

Can you say,

Volatile?
Silver trade not for the faint of heart.

silver66's picture

Cal Lawyer

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/235718#comment-235718

Excellent post

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/235718#comment-235718

Who would have thunk :-) when I posted a link to FOFOA that we would have such a spirited debate. I think the key take away is OWN physical. I can't imagine anyone on this site would disagree with that.

As I have stated debating is good, but it is what you do that is most important. Thought without action is wasted thought in my opinion

Keep Stackin

Silver66

Mr. Fix's picture

@ babaganoush2307

I propose that the current  buying started as soon as Turd's post for the day got read.

There's no other reason that I can see.wink

Xty's picture

re that happens a lot around here

Hey, I did specifically address his argument.  His witty comeback was to imply that as I did not address all the other things he said, somehow he did not need to address the one I did.  Classic.  When discussing things made unnecessarily complicated it is important to go one point at a time, so you can tell when you do not get an answer, but just have the rug pulled sideways.

Monedas's picture

Drypuss ?

I preferred you as an "Ass" more than then the new improved "Kiss Ass" !   Be yourself !  Just kidding .... let's make nice ?  Do not respond to this childish provocation of mine !      Monedas      1929       Comedy Jihad Winning People Over With His Special Humour World Tour    devil

Turd Ferguson's picture

Go, Go, Go!

MODERATOR

Squeeze those fuckers!!

SIlverbee's picture

Don't look now

Stop ....I said don't look

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