Happy or Terrible?

The week is finally rolling. Don't let this morning's downward action mislead you, though.

There were a couple of things working against us this morning. First, the rally in The Pig from yesterday provided cover to again enforce the hard caps at $1730 and $32.60. After the way the metals closed last week, the shorts are desperate to regain momentum to the downside and forestall any squeeze. Additionally, after the rally of last week, the Cartels are attempting to "paint" the CoT, which will be surveyed this afternoon. Taken together, you get a plunge in price all the way to $1718 in gold and $32.10 in silver.

So it is time to re-iterate this: Do not be dismayed. Today's weakness, like almost every other down day, should be used to accumulate even more physical.

2013 is going to be an extraordinary year for the metals. By this time next year, we will be looking back at the price levels and wondering just what in the heck we were doing by not literally running to the LCS every day and draining their inventory. I expect 2013 to be the year when The Great Bullion Bank Charade finally comes crashing down and, once the true extent of the fraud is acknowledged, the value of physical metal will skyrocket. Until that day comes, let the cruel and selfish manipulators continue to play their games. In doing so, they simply continue to sow the seeds of their own demise. You and I will simply remain patient and continue stacking physical metal at deeply discounted prices.

Here are a couple of updated charts to chew on. On these 8-hour charts, you can plainly see the Cartel defense lines as well as the general, rising trend from the bottoms identified about three weeks ago.

And have you seen the open interest numbers from Friday yet? Pretty interesting! Total gold OI surged over 2%, about 9,000 contracts, to about 462,000. Though still about 30,000 lower than the price and OI peak of 10/4, this is quite a jump nonetheless and part of a total rise of 20,000 in the past four days, alone. This is a clear sign of a momentum turn as price has been rallying, too.

The silver OI is even more interesting. It jumped about 1,000 on Friday and now rests at 142,611. This level is second only to the 143,056 seen on 10/12 as the highest levels of 2012. Again, with price rising over $1.50 from Tue-Fri of last week, this is clearly significant, new interest entering on the long side. Hmmmmm. What does that tell you? Are these new longs about to be fleeced or are they preparing for a big move UP? Hard to say for sure but one thing is certain, the older longs seem resolute and these new longs are already up on the trade. Both groups will therefore be quite tough to shake out on any forced declines like we saw earlier this morning.

And did you see this story over the weekend? http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-11/chinese-gold-imports-surge-september-ytd-total-surpasses-official-indian-holdings. China is on pace to import over 800 metric tonnes of gold this year alone. 800 tonnes is more than the entire accumulated inventory of India! And that's just what they "officially" declare!! The true number is almost certainly far more than 800. What does this mean? It is also time to re-iterate this: One day soon, the Chinese will offer a new, gold-backed renminbi/yuan as an international alternative to the current U.S. dollar global trade settlement system. In conjunction, where London was the global base of bullion trading for the 19th and 20th centuries, Hong Kong will assume that role in the 21st Century. Period. End of story. Fait accompli.

So, please continue to prepare for next year and beyond. As I close, I see that the metals have rebounded sharply in the hour or so it has taken me to type this up. Good. This makes Turd happy. I hope you're happy, too. Have a great day.

TF

2:15 pm EST UPDATE:

Today you witnessed a classic example of two Cartel tricks. One, volatility brought about by obvious CoT painting and, two, clear price capping to protect buy-stops from being overrun.

First, the capping. This has been an ongoing project for three weeks but it has been particularly nauseating since Friday. All of the action yesterday, in the extremely light volume environment, was dedicated to moving price back below the $1730 and $32.60 caps. The CoT-based volatility today briefly eclipsed those levels again and was not allowed to stand. Like a desperate, dying fighter...The. Caps. Must. Hold.

And now check out the closes today on these 1-minute charts. Believe it or not, I actually think this is a good sign and a positive. Remember, when The Cartel decides to "paint" the CoT, it does so with the intention of "wrong-footing" the analysts when the report is finally released 72 hours later. A bank will sell or buy into the Tuesday close in an effort to give a false impression of their actual positions. By selling into the close, someone/something was clearly attempting to minimize their reported long exposure. Why? Most likely that entity is bullish and does not want the full extent of that bullishness reflected on this week's CoT. With this in mind, check out the prices dumps that concluded exactly at the Comes close of each metal.

At any rate and regardless of the caps. today's action leaves me very optimistic regarding the remainder of this week. Long and strong.

TF

323 Comments

Mr. Fix's picture

Good grief....(furst again).......Thanks Turd!

That was just dumb luck....

Thank you for the new thread,

I feel like it has been an extraordinarily long weekend.

Time to get back to work.

Have a nice day.smiley

Edit:

Turd,

To answer the question you posed,

I am going to go with “happy”

because in my opinion,

it is infinitely better than the alternative. 

smileysmileysmileysmileysmileysmileysmileysmileysmileysmileysmileyyes

“A man is about as happy as he makes his mind up to be”–Abraham Lincoln.

Fr. Bill's picture

A Limerick for Second

Once in a while is just fine,
For landing top three in Turd's line.
But twice in a week!
OMG! That's the peak
Of good fortune, and near to divine!
SIlverbee's picture

Third

Sorry Philli pressing three times does not get you to Kansas!

Will we break $32.75? 

SIlverbee's picture

Where is the Langrangian point L1 for silver?

$32.50 or $53.50?

philly's picture

Hah!

Thurd!!!

My, my....apparently the webserver at my place of employ has a stuttering problem! Sorry to clutter the thread up so much...and NOT end up thurd after all!

...in other news, my phyzz collection gained a little weight this weekend!

benny_bomb_boom's picture

20 turd teen

looking forward to it mr. F!! hope everything in the house in getting back to normal. this week, should be interesting at least.

ScottJ's picture

Transitory

Money By Trading's picture

Time to be a buyer

Revelation's picture

What the Masses Will All Learn in Time

Swineflogger's picture

Likely New Member of the Cabinet - Welcome to Hell

billwilson's picture

If

If we get a breakout today it will happen between 11 and 12 am. Last 2 days we have seen a sell-off after the London close (11).

The worry is the total disaster that are the miners. Down day after day. Finally we have all the earnings out of the way so enough of the bad news we hope.

Miners (XAU) held above 200 day this am ... so a small reason to hope.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Just like "Jenjis Khan".

MODERATOR

Looks just like "Jenjis Khan".

Pining 4 the Fjords's picture

SwineFlogger-

They are putting "Herman" from the Addams Family on the cabinet? Excellent.

Can't wait for "Uncle Fester, Secretary of health and Human Services"

tyberious's picture

Silver price to ‘increase 400pc

Silver price to ‘increase 400pc in three years’

 

telegraph.co.uk / By Emma Wall / 7:05AM GMT 13 Nov 2012

Silver will increase in value five times over the next three years, according to mixed asset fund manager Ian Williams.

“Silver is about to enter a sustained bull market that will take the price from the current level of $32 an ounce to $165 an ounce and we expect this price to be hit at the end of October 2015,” he predicted.

“This forecast is based entirely using technical & cyclical analysis and is in keeping with the mathematical form displayed so far in the bull run that has taken Silver from $8 an ounce in 2008 to its current price of $32 an ounce – having hit $50 an ounce in 2011.”

Mr Williams said that the silver price was more volatile than gold, but that he expected silver to continue to dramatically outperform gold.

The Charteris manager said that macro fundamentals were supportive for the silver price, such as the re-election of President Obama, who supports Ben Bernanke’s policy of quantitative easing.

READ MORE

crg's picture

Miners...suck

Brother John in Silver Update posted last night gave a interesting point of view on how these idiot mining companies manage to always lose money by forward selling of contracts? Made sense. Also how the cost to mine per ounce of metal is all cooking the books. I always wonder how these idiots manage to post losses when the price of metal has risen. Yeah, i know, degrading ore, higher fuel costs, but c'mon now...Andy Hoffman might be right, miners suck and dont buy em!!Look at todays action and the last few days. Market up today, silver up now, silver miners sucking ass...What am i missing? Do these companies really give a rats ass about making money if they are hedged?

Turd Ferguson's picture

And in a stunning

MODERATOR

And in a stunning development, the caps are still holding at 1730 and 32.60.

tyberious's picture

versify With Silver As Set To

Diversify With Silver As Set To ‘Increase 400% In 3 Years’

goldcore.com / By Mark O’Byrne / November 13, 2012

The Telegraph has an interesting article on silver which suggests that it might rise by over five times in the next few years.

Emma Wall interviews fund manager Ian Williams who says that “silver is about to enter a sustained bull market that will take the price from the current level of $32 an ounce to $165 an ounce and we expect this price to be hit at the end of October 2015.”

“This forecast is based entirely using technical & cyclical analysis and is in keeping with the mathematical form displayed so far in the bull run that has taken silver from $8/oz in 2008 to its current price of $32 an ounce – having hit $50 an ounce in 2011.”

Mr Williams noted that the silver price was more volatile than gold, but that he predicts silver to continue to dramatically outperform gold.

The Charteris manager said that macro fundamentals were supportive for the silver price, such as the re-election of President Obama, who supports Ben Bernanke’s policy of quantitative easing.

READ MORE

The Watchman's picture

Blythe is NOT HAPPY

Live New York Silver Chart [ Kitco Inc. ]

angrymonkey.jpg

Ferd Torgerson's picture

New Cabinet Member

I well recall that pose from his acceptance speech at his nominating convention and his awesome line, "I'm John Kerry and I'm reporting for doody".

And, dang, Pining.  I knew you were smart but had no idea you were a Ph freakin' D.

I got a headache trying to read thru and understand all the discussion about free gold.  Could you boil down the subject into a couple of sentences? 

Many thanks.

Ferd

SilverSurfers's picture

Wat the heck, redo

TF got the clue? Seem very curiously TF and I hit within 10 minutes.

Wat the heck is that???
Submitted by SilverSurfers on November 13, 2012 - 8:46am. Silver:32.01 asia, 32.60 NY open, 32.20 NY take down, 32.70 NY rally

trend volatility can indicate trend changes,

there have been a bottom capitulation, 31.50, banging resistance 32.50, with an outside reversal, and now Up/Down volatility, combined to indicate an explosive move higher, thus, enters the cartel and the breaks.

SIlverbee's picture

Now that's not normal

Usually after the calm its a down not UP

RTMoney's picture

Ding, ding

Next stop... $33.10-$33.20

tyberious's picture

BrotherjohnF

It's the banks that own the banks through the board of directors. They do not want the miners, in the case Barrick, to make money, so they make them hedge in a rising market! Just dumb!

Mr. Fix's picture

@ The Watchman

That Kitco chart looks nothing like the weakness that Turd just described! wink

Grublux's picture

Will we break thru the neckline???

Swineflogger's picture

@Pining

I am so awed by your Photoshop skills I upgraded to version 11 from my previous version 7.  I will begin practicing of the Bernank Horse's Ass worksheet immediately! 

Jan Roos's picture

I have a

few Nov SLV 33 calls expiring in 4 days. Hold or sell now? hmmm

beardeus's picture

Hyperinflation

I believe in gold and silver but am thinking that hyperinflation is not inevitable.

The Federal Reserve note base is large. Very large. Could be hundreds of trillions of notes out there. So the Federal Reserve could print say 10 trillion a year and it would only be maybe 10% inflation.

I think the best indicator for the gold and silver price is the debt ceiling and not money printing.

Dyna mo hum's picture

I got ya skunk

right here.  Oh my eyes!

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