Reading List

Here are a few items to help you kill the time while we wait for the caps at $1730 and $32.50 to fail.

First, you may have noticed a decided lack of charts these past few days. This was by design. I have found sometimes that it's easy to get caught up in a certain perspective or pattern and, occasionally, it's beneficial to step back for a few days, clear my head, and then re-assess. Having done so, I'm happy to report that both charts look extraordinarily strong, in line with the fundamental picture post-election.

After having been forcefully contained in the weeks following the announcement of QE∞, momentum failed and the paper bears shoved things lower. The remarkably strong physical market then provided a floor for the paper price at/near $1700 in gold and $31.50 in silver. Recognizing this, paper bulls had held onto those support levels. What came next (last Friday) was a deliberate washout of those paper bulls as their sell-stops were triggered and price tumbled lower. What is so bullish about this is the almost immediate rebound in price that began on Monday and continued, in earnest, on Tuesday. The charts now show solid bottoms in the areas we originally defined two weeks ago. They also show the extremely bullish "washout bottoms" (the opposite of "blowoff tops"). Why is this so bullish? Simple. It is evidence of a selling capitulation where the last remaining sellers have now sold. Remaining longs are emboldened and we are now set up for a further short squeeze which will finally turn the momentum back in favor of the long side.

Combine this with the fundamental picture post the U.S. election and there can be no doubt that he next, major move in the metals is UP. Buy some physical today.

To that end, one of your fellow Turdites has constructed a helpful tool and he kindly asked if I'd publish a link for him. Glad to help: http://comparesilverprices.com/

OK, on to your reading list. First up, our friends at GBI (which is the infrastructure of HardAssetsAlliance) have issued "part 1" of a new 3-part series on the U.S. dollar endgame and its effect on gold: http://www.bullioninternational.com/blog/entry/gold_supply_and_demand_dynamics_and_the_potential_dollar_endgame

A vocal proponent of this theory (fact) is our pal, Detlev, and he has just published and excellent new piece that you should definitely take the time to read: http://detlevschlichter.com/2012/11/contra-richard-koo-and-the-keynesians-it-is-not-about-aggregate-demand-but-about-real-prices/

And Paul Mylchreest has written another excellent white paper. This one deals with many interesting topics, not the least of which is the coming collateral "issues" for 2013. Please make the time to read and fully comprehend what Paul is suggesting here.

TRR #29

Lastly, effective immediately, I will once again be moderating and policing this main thread. Please understand that I have given you this entire site for your off-topic discussions. Use it. This main thread is our entry way and it is where we attract and convert new Turdites to the cause...a cause that has only gained more urgency since Tuesday. Now, if you want to show yourself to be a complete idiot by calling this "censorship", knock yourself out. The simple fact is that this is my site and, quite frankly, my place of business. You are no more welcome to deface and hijack this site than you would be if you came to my house and started breaking shit. I have the right to protect my property whether it is real or virtual. If you are unwilling and/or unable to adhere to this rule and therefore help to promote the communal and collegial spirit of this site, then I kindly ask you to leave us now and take your self-righteous indignation somewhere else.

Thanks again for the well-wishes to MrsF as she speeds down the path to recovery. I hope that everyone has a great day!

TF

 

257 Comments

Fr. Bill's picture

First

When surfing thru links metallurgical,
I landed on one that was Turdical,
And what should I find?
I was first in line!
An event that must be thaumaturgical!
treefrog's picture

...twoth

II!

Mudsharkbytes's picture

Second - oops

I'll second that.  Never mind.

GeraldBostock's picture

Second!

Second!

Sorry. Third.

Fourth?

The Green Manalishi's picture

Watching list

Ned Naylor-Leyland on the Keiser Report

2nd Part of Jim Willie Interview on Gold money

1st part if you missed it.

Mr. Fix's picture

Here we go again......

Looks like I've got some reading to do.

Beats going outside to "play in the snow"

Thanks!

The Green Manalishi;

Thank you for posting the Jim Willie interview,

That's just what I was looking for.yes

ChocoHotDog's picture

I know I'm an asshole for writing in caps but...

...THANK YOU TURD FOR KEEPING THE THREADS ON TOPIC!!!!

I don't post often but I come here everyday for Turd's metals insights AND OTHER POSTERS INSIGHTS INTO THE METALS MARKETS. The rest of the political whining is as annoying as CNBC (unless Santelli is calling LIESman out, of course).

The entire political system is bullshit and it's simply useless to discuss it. Accept it, move on, and buy gold, silver, and whatever else you need to keep it and yourself safe.

In addition, why do you posters care about being first or wasting a post in the front of the thread? Do you realize that you make people waste time every day scrolling through this garbage? 

Ircsum's picture

Thanks, Mr. TF.

This post is like a breath of fresh air & let's hope it keeps the squabblers & the loony fringe off Main Street. The Thunder Road report always makes great reading.

Kcap's picture

@ Turd: Just so I understand the rules of your house...

When linking events to gold/silver, whether proven by scientists or MSM or not, I would have a right to do so, because they are all in the interest of the Metals, right? 

Sandy = destroyed docs = equity markets failing = mad rush to metals

This would be acceptable to you?

If not, I am happy to take it elsewhere.

Thanks in advance and all the best,

Kcap

abguy4's picture

Karl D. dumps on the PM bandwagon ?

Karl Denninger ( how much more German can you get~!?) at his most lucid, clear-headed and succinct best.

You may not like all his comments about the PM's , but at least give them consideration, as his thoughts are central to the philosophies of this blog site;

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=vyUSvy4LUZk#!

ReachWest's picture

Patient and Diligent from Here

Thanks for this mornings analysis, Turd. Good stuff.

I continue to patiently watch, wait and, of course, add more to the stack. Now that we have this election drama behind us, we can focus on the real matters that are continuing to grind away in the background to ultimately return the world to some form of sound money. Those of us that frequent Turdville, have the benefit of fore-knowledge (unlike most of our neighbours) — it's important that we use our time properly to prepare for what is coming. Thanks Turd, for all you have provided, so that we can learn, share and prepare.

PS: As an aside, it's funny now that the election is in the past, we are now hearing and seeing news about the European financial mess, Greece, the fiscal cliff, etc, etc once again. The news spigot for these stories seems to have been halted for the past several weeks. Looks like it's turned back on now. Go figure.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Yes, your example is fine

MODERATOR

Discussions of chemtrails, Monsanto and HAARP...not so much.

Istack's picture

Ode to Turdville

I'm a little turdite

I come here every day

I hope and dream my stacking

Will someday truly pay

tyberious's picture

Guest Post: $100 Silver! Yes,

Guest Post: $100 Silver! Yes, But When?

 

deviantinvestor.com / November 8, 2012

GUEST POST submitted by GE Christenson aka Deviant Investor.

(November 2012)

There are many predictions for the price of silver. Some say it will crash to nearly $20, and others proclaim $100 by the end of 2012. The problem is that some predictions are only wishful thinking, others are obvious disinformation designed to scare investors away from silver, and many are not grounded in hard data and clear analysis. Other analysis is excellent, but both the process and analysis are difficult to understand. Is there an objective and rational method to project a future silver price that will make sense to most people?

Yes, there is!

I am not predicting a future price of silver or the date that silver will trade at $100, but I am making a projection based on rational analysis that indicates a likely time period for silver to trade at $100 per ounce. Yes, $100 silver is completely plausible if you assume the following:

  • The US government will continue to spend in excess of $1 Trillion per year more than it collects in revenue, as it has done for the previous four years, and as the government budget projects for many more years.
  • Our financial world continues on its current path of deficit spending, debt monetization, Quantitative Easing (QE), weaker currencies, war and welfare, ballooning debts, and business as usual.
  • A massive and devastating financial and economic melt-down does NOT occur in the next four to six years. If such a melt-down occurs, the price of silver could skyrocket during hyperinflation or stagnate under a deflationary depression scenario.

Still with me? I think most people will accept these simple and rather obvious assumptions.

Many individuals find it difficult to believe any projections for silver, either higher or lower, because silver is hated, loved, often ignored, and seldom recognized as another currency. However, most people know that the US government national debt is huge and will grow much larger during the next decade. Examine the following graph:

National debt is plotted on the left axis – yes, it was larger than $16 Trillion as of September 30, 2012. Silver is plotted on the right axis. The data covers an 11 year span from September 2001 through September 2012. This period includes the time after the stock market crash of 2000, the game-changing events of 9-11, the real estate crash, and the new bull market in commodities. Each month represents one data point. Note the similarity between the two trends. The statistical measure R-Squared for this 11 year period of monthly data is 0.838 – quite high. R-Squared increases to about 0.90 if national debt is correlated to the monthly price of silver after it has been smoothed with 9 month moving average.

This expansion in the national debt is a simple proxy for expansion of the money supply and the devaluation of the dollar. The exponential growth rate for the national debt averaged over this period is 9.7% compounded annually, while the rate averaged over the last five years is 12.3%. The exponential growth rate for silver is a bit larger – about 20% per year compounded annually. I attribute this larger rate, in excess of 12.3%, to the realization that silver is a competing currency, mining supply is growing slowly, most governments are aggressively “printing money,” industrial demand is increasing, and some investors are actively buying silver. In short, demand is increasing while the realization that silver is still an undervalued investment and cannot be “printed” at will (like dollars and euros) has reached the awareness of individual investors. I believe it is very likely that national debt and the price of silver will continue their 11 year exponential growth trend.

Since silver correlates relatively closely with national debt, we can use national debt as a clear, objective, and believable proxy to model the future price of silver. Extend national debt and silver prices forward for the next six years based on the exponential increase from the last five years, and the result is the following table. Bracket silver prices, high and low, based on past annual volatility of roughly +60% and -35%. You can see from the graph that silver prices are very erratic – silver rallies too far and too fast, and then crashes to absurdly low levels. These stunning rallies and crashes have happened for at least 35 years and probably will continue throughout this decade.

Whether or not prices and crashes are manipulated, and there seems to be credible evidence to indicate such, the “big picture” view is that silver has rallied from about $4 to nearly $50, crashed back to about $25, and is set to rally to well over $100 in the next few years. The week to week movements will become even more extreme so focus on the long-term trend to reduce anxiety and fear.

As you can see, this projection for silver prices indicates that silver could reach $100 as soon as late 2015, with a theoretical projected price of $100 about 2017. The price of silver is about $32.00 as of November 1, 2012.

The next graph shows the price of silver, on a logarithmic scale, with high and low trend lines. The horizontal line at $100 shows the earliest and latest dates at which the trend lines project silver will reach that price. Those dates are 2015 through late 2017, which are consistent with the above projection based on the tight correlation to the national debt. The important realization is that $100 silver is just a matter of time – say three to five more years – depending on the level of QE “money printing,” inflationary expectations, dollar devaluations, fiscal insanity, government deficit spending, wars, and welfare. We have been warned!

Conclusion

We may be skeptical of price projections for silver, but projections for national debt are quite believable. Since the correlation is very close, future silver prices can be projected, assuming continuing deficit spending, QE, and other macroeconomic influences. A dollar crash or an unexpected bout of congressional fiscal responsibility could accelerate or delay the date silver trades at $100, but the projection is reasonable and sensible. Silver increased from $4.01 (November 2001) to over $48 (April 2011). A silver price of $48 seemed nearly impossible in 2001, yet it happened. An increase from about $32 (October 2012) to $100 (perhaps in 2015 – 2016) seems much easier to believe, especially after Bernanke’s recent announcement of QE4-Ever. Read We Have Been Warned.

“Inflation is as violent as a mugger, as frightening as an armed robber and as deadly as a hit man.” – Ronald Reagan

GE Christenson aka Deviant Investor

Kcap's picture

@ Turd ...one last question...

If some of us deem the document destruction as intended, instead of coincidental, is it not ok to link HAARP to Sandy, given that this is not just being talked about here, but all over the alternative weather/new outlets on the web?  In addition, this was fully predicted VERBATIM ahead of time by Clif High (as far fetched as he is sometimes).

Is it more that even though you might agree with what I have written or linked, you just don't want the speculation of what is behind the "non-coincidence" to be discussed here as it then strays way too far away from the metals?

Thanks in advance for the clarity,

Kcap

Groaner's picture

Anyone buy or sell bullion on Ebay?

I got some good deals a couple of years ago when they were running this Bing Bucks discount plus another 2% off.. 

However I have not tried to buy any since because the asking prices are up there. I am amazed that people must be paying those inflated premiums on that site.

Has anyone been selling anything there? Have you had any problems? Why I ask is because if you need to sell it seems like a good place to get high prices for you metals.

Also I have some MS 63 St Gaudines that I bought and at the time I didnt have a clue so I am thinking of either trading or selling in exchange for bullion..

Any thoughts???

I dont know,, is this question off topic????

ballzdeepnsilver's picture

The Fundamental View

Just wondering what any of you think about TFV blog...Dan seems to be very confident with his TA and is predicting that silver and gold will continue to correct based on a bear pennant on the silver chart?  He never trades on emotion and has been right on trading options for the better part of 2 yrs that I have been following him.

Revelation's picture

Ayn Rand

“We can evade reality, but we cannot evade the consequences of evading reality”

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

http://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html

Groaner's picture

Do we have lift off Major Tom???

what caused the pop this time?

dziprick's picture

I thought Nadler said Indian demand was low this year???

Gold shortage hits customers

   

 

  
 

HIMALAYAN NEWS SERVICE

KATHMANDU: Shortage of gold in the domestic market, ahead of Laxmi Puja and Dhanterash, might disappoint Nepali consumers who are looking forward to buying gold as a good omen. 

Most households purchase gold and silver items — jewellery, ornaments, utensils or coins for good luck and prosperity on Laxmi Puja and Dhanterash — a day preceding Laxmi Puja. However, this year gold shortage has deepened in the last couple of weeks due to an increased demand raising doubts regarding its easy availability. 

“Demand for gold has reached 45 kilos per day due to the peak season, hence the daily supply of 15 kilos by banks is nowhere near sufficient to meet the demand,” said president of Nepal Gold and Silver Dealers’ Association (Negosida) Tej Ratna Shakya. 

The central bank allows commercial banks to import 15 kilos of gold per day which is later distributed in retail 

to jewellers based on their respective association’s recommendation. 

The shortage is deeper outside the valley where consumers cannot even buy a few grams of gold, he said, adding that, turning away customers during festivals will be a let down for traders and customers alike. 

Gold was priced at Rs 59,700 per tola (11.664 grams) today — Rs 700 higher than yesterday’s price. 

“We have also heard that some jewellers are quoting a price that is Rs 1000 higher than the fixed price citing shortage, but we can only take action based on evidence,” said Shakya. 

Negosida and Nepal Gold and Silver Art Association and Nepal Gems and Jewellery Association have been demanding more quota for gold import. “We have asked the Ministry of Commerce and Supplies, and Nepal Rastra Bank to increase the import quota during the peak season,” pointed out Shakya.

"Click Here to read today's edition of The Himalayan Times, just as it appears in Print. 

The Watchman's picture

Give it UP

California Lawyer's picture

@Tyberious - I Thank You Profusely

Spectacular, logical, comprehensive reasoning, and done in a way that is truly simple.  

I wish I had your skill to be able to make such a convincing post.  That is why I come here every day.  Thank you again.

Being a non-technical guy, I look at that chart, and see this:

As the USA national debt increases, it PULLS the price of silver upwards.  Thus, to me, it proves that the price of silver in terms of the dollar is not rising of its own, but is reluctantly appreciating.  The sole exception was the blow off top at near $50.  Maybe one day we will learn the truth, that it was banksters' short covering, or panic, or what not, that caused silver spot to shoot up and damn near pass $50.  Anyhow . . .

Your analysis seems irrefutable to prove that the price of silver in dollars is a FUNCTION of the USA debt, which to be funded requires ever more printing, thus devaluing the dollar, thus raising the price of silver in terms of dollars.  Hence, manipulation, or EE capping, or whatever, if it exists or not, matters not one bit to the analysis of future price moves in silver, because even with manipulation or not, the price WILL rise and bounce between extremes as you have so eloquently proved.

Thank you kindly for this sage advice.  I feel better already.

ag1969's picture

Turd

I know you hated the last thread and called 1 comment the only one that had any relevance.  But I found this nugget in the last thread and am wondering if anyone noticed or what thoughts were on this:

Scramble behind closed doors at the LBMA?

I have this to say in response to your 3 month forward chart for silver:

The LBMA "silver forwards" website which provides indications of the contango/backwardation status of silver which have proved VERY useful in predicting likely short-term pressures on price, has frozen at 2 November, the rate having bled downwards prior to that. The LBMA are still permitting us to see the front-month contango for gold, which is collapsing quickly by the standards of gold - and we all know that silver moves usually leverage those of gold. This suggests to me that something is happening and we are not being permitted to observe it.

Despite a careful search of the entire internet, it appears that absolutely nobody has noticed the above fact, which I find completely astounding. So I am sitting here impatiently waiting for a knowledgeable and well-connected person to remedy it and tell us just what is happening at the LBMA that is so interesting they will not allow us to see it.

Link to the offending page, which has updated faithfully with this juicy data at approximately 06:30 EST for the last year or so... but suddenly stopped last Friday.

http://www.lbma.org.uk/pages/index.cfm?page_id=56&show=2012

gearhead_24's picture

I love that first line Turd....

"Here are a few items to help you kill the time while we wait for the caps at $1730 and $32.50 to fail."  Would hat tip 1,000 times if I could.

GH

HappyNow's picture

Kcap - a suggestion

Post here when you link your theory with the impact on metals.     At the same time start a thread to continue discussion of the layers and layers that support the theory.

Post the link to your thread here.  Then participate in that thread.

Good Things happen:

1)  Folks understand how you think your information will impact metals here on the main page.

2)  The further discussion (sometimes acrimonious) that is not about metals but about the information provided doesn't clutter the main page.

3)  The Forums become a go-to place for anyone who wants to find out more, and the Forums allow for better organization.  eg. the discussion isn't cluttered with information about metals or other overlapping discussions and your valuable contribution isn't lost in time as the days pass and new front page topics emerge.

For instance here is the HAARP thread with more than a year of discussion history....http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/haarp/52

A quick browse didn't reveal a thread about Chemtrails.   If there isn't one then you can be the starter!

Kcap's picture

@ag1969

Bingo.

Which makes Tyberious' post and CalLawyer's ridiculous support of it......NONSENSE.

Kcap

Green Lantern's picture

What the Election Results Mean For Investors

Rick Rule just sent this out.   A brilliant financial analysis of what the election results mean.  I took the liberty of transcribing the first minute or so for my benefit and hopefully yours. 

I'd like to talk about the election we just went through and talk about it in the context of investors and speculators.   I think i can put my remarks in context by quoting the famous political commentator Louis Menckin who once described elections as advanced auctions of of stolen property.  The most amusing thing to me in the lead up to this election was the nature of the discussion itself where the democrats appropriating public goods  for the benefit of their consitutency and the republicans talked appropriating goods for their own constituencies.  

It would appear that the nature of political discourse in the United States now is very simple "how do we steal from certain constituencies while delivering to other constituencies and how do we table our messages to get it through to the chosen constituencies while keeping enough of it hidden that the disadvantage constituencies won't mobilize against us.  

Ambrose Bierce famously described the tactic 160 years ago in the devils dictionary which I would encourage all of you to buy.  He said that  you can understand the nature of the activity called politics by examining the root words.   Poli-from the latin for me  and tic from the English colloquial small blood sucking insects.   

You understand the process by understanding a situation where me, small blood sucking insectsThat's us.  Attempt to attract the corpse of society, which is the economy, each for their own benefit.  Each trying to suck while keeping other people from sucking blood from themselves. 

For the sake of adding my own viewpoint so I don't feel like a newspaper boy just handing out news to others,  I wholeheartedly agree.  But would add that in the depth of my soul, I could not find the gumption or the force of gravity to place my hand on a lever and pull it down for any major politically candidate without coming and telling my wife that I only choose the method for which somebody would steal for us.   Giving this alot of thought, the other social issues all cater to certain religious belief systems and or cater to certain ethnic and cultural beliefs.  Emotional triggers to seduce the vote in your direction.  In my mind  these issues are only the rouse which gets you out of your house to vote for one candidate over the other while both attempt to steel your hard earned money.  

I do not begrudge or judge others who made different decisions for I can't in one breath say, I support the principles that this country was founded upon and then in the next breath criticize the next guy for participating in that system in the way he or she see's fit.  But I do have to concern myself with saving my financial ass from the decisions  which were made.  

in our society, money equals mobility.  So no matter how much you dislike their stance on certain issues, money gives you the mobility to make better decisions for yourself.   So if you don't like prayer in the classroom, you send your kid someplace else.  Without the mobility that comes with fiat money in your pocket.  You have less mobility and less choices to go against the will of goverment unless you join the Occupy forces. 

So without further adeu, here is the remainder of Rules financial commentary

http://www.sprottglobal.com/market-insights/rick-rule/

Kcap's picture

@happynow

Thanks for the suggestion.  Not sure its worth it.  But appreciated nonetheless.  Hindsight will reveal what I've already said.

Isn't all about who can connect the dots the best?  That's all everyone/anyone is trying to do.

Kcap

department of truth's picture

What stops the naked shorts? They are OK with the US govt

Friends, a question:

What stops the naked shorts? 

Since they go unpunished and unprosecuted, they are at the very least sanctioned by the US Federal government; I think they are actively encouraged (to help protect the dollar and hold down interest rates).

The volume and frequency of the interventions make them harder and harder to ignore.  But they are ignored, and so this gives license for more.  Right? Without legal enforcement, I see no mechanism to prevent them from continuing ad infinitum. Thus, something outside the market, as it is presently defined, must take place to put a halt to this process. 

(I personally think this is happening now, with the petrodollar being replaced with separate trade agreements that using either other currencies or barter, or some combination that does not include US dollars. Eventually we won't just be able to print dollars to buy oil; dollars at that point will also be accurately be perceived as essentially worthless, so we won't be able to exchange them for industrial products, either, at least not at anything like the current exchange rates.)

The point of my question, in the context of Turd's site, is given the (government sanctioned) ability of the banking cartel to short any amount of metal at any time of their choosing (say a year's worth of production in 30 minutes time), what good are charts for predicting a "bottom."?

ag1969's picture

Kcap

Kcap, Tyberious and CalLawyer are two people whom I happen to have a tremendous amount of respect for, and I would appreciate not being associated with your critical comments. 

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