The End Is Near (2012)

Time to bust out this sorry-looking SOB again.

I wasn't planning on writing anything today but then it dawned on me:

  1. After yesterday, everyone needs a subtle reminder that all is not lost.
  2. Many folks come and go all week and may have missed the general theme.

Once again, my time is short so I'll keep it simple and to the point. This current pullback/correction is nearly identical in circumstance to the pullback of January 2011. Back then, QE2 had been announced seven weeks earlier and, once the initial, euphoric push into the metals had subsided, priced were raided in order to give The Cartels time to cover some shorts. Both metals saw all of their post-QE gains clawed back over a three-week period. Desperation was in the air. The MOPE was thick with misleading economic statistics and pundits everywhere were proclaiming the death of the metal bull market.

I lived through it and wrote about it on the old "Watchtower" site . Here's a sample of the mood and tone from that period: http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/darkest-before-dawn.html

Finally, after three weeks of nonsense, I was fed up by the discongruent action and issued this guarantee. Old-timers will recall it as "Turd's Bottom": http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/1600-gold-by-june-10-2011.html

This week, we reached the same place. If you haven't yet reviewed this post from Wednesday, I urge you to take the time to do it now: http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4265/tempest

Look, I really don't care what anyone else says. The chartreaders and the subscription guys can all kiss my skinny, Cornhusker rear end. As Hans and Franz would say, "Listen to me now and hear me later!"

THIS IS ALMOST OVER. SOON, THE METALS WILL REVERSE AND HEAD MUCH, MUCH HIGHER. PLEASE USE THIS TIME TO ACCUMULATE AND/OR STACK. YOU WILL BE HANDSOMELY REWARDED IN THE SHORT TERM WHILE YOU PREPARE FOR THE LONG-TERM.

As you can see below, both metals have nearly completed a perfect, 50% retracement of the rally from mid-August to early October. Note, too, that Relative Strength Indicies have subsequently fallen to levels from which rallies typically begin.

What happens next is easily predictable. I mean, I could be wrong but I doubt it.

With silver below its 50-day MA and gold sitting directly upon its, expect more weakness Sunday night into Monday. As gold slips below $1720, more momo-chasers will enter on the short side and gold will likely fall even further. I'd expect a low somewhere around $1700 + 10. Silver will fall toward $31.50, maybe even $31 if it really gets ugly.

At this point, all of the remaining spec short sheep will have been drawn into the trade and the metals will reverse, probably by late Monday or overnight Tuesday. The metals then may hang around in a choppy trade for a few days as they build a base and a bottom. Here's another sample from 2011, this one written on 2/1/11, seven trading days after the guarantee of "Turd's Bottom": http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/02/battle-rages.html. Note that the base-building process off of this type of correction can be strenuous as the shorts try every trick in the book to regain their momentum.

Finally, based upon extraordinary fundamentals and overwhelming physical demand, the metals will charge higher once again, eclipsing $36 and $1800 on the way back to the levels last seen in the spring and summer of 2011. This will happen. Just be patient and keep the faith. Relax and continue stacking.

Have a great weekend!

TF

264 Comments

Mr. Fix's picture

The end is closer than most will admit!

So, the end is near?
I was listening to the Larry Kudlow show a little while ago, a
as well as taking in some rare Fox news a little earlier today.
It seems to me, that we are being set up with a boat load of false hope.

We are being told that somehow that Romney is going to come in and save the day,
and that everyone thing will be completely rosy as soon as he takes office.

This is a 100% load of crap!

The end is near, it is mathematically unavoidable.
Even after listening to the debates, it is perfectly clear that neither side is addressing any real issues.

I will be incredibly surprised if we ever see a Romney presidency,
I do not expect the madman that is currently holding the office to walk away without a major fight.

There are so many different plausible scenarios that can go down over the next couple of months,

But the fact that the end is near is totally undeniable.

treefrog's picture

america, the land of miracles

"We’re the country that built the Intercontinental Railroad," Barack Obama, september, 2011

it's amazing what you can do with just a little hopium

achmachat's picture

yay!

Have a relaxing weekend above all!

ancientmoney's picture

It's all still very simple . . .

. . . regardless of what anyone, including Sinclair says. I say this because while I agree with his synopsis of how the pros fleece the vast majority of traders, that COMEX game we are all familiar with, especially since May 2011, has an end.

The governments have us all on a fiat currency standard, which, combined with psychopathic greed on the part of the big banks and their owners, and the pols owned by them, has essentially destroyed the financial system as we've known it. While this system is all many of us have ever known and therefore it seems proper and normal, it is actually a rather short 40 year experiment that is now coming to the expected bad ending, as all similar experiments have in the past. This is because basically man is weak and greedy, and will do things that benefit him without regard for the future or for others. There are exceptions, but this adequately describes most bankers and politicians, who run the financial world.

Now, the Fed, a private banking cabal owned by the likes of JPM, GS, BoA, Deutsche, etc. is trying to keep the near-dead patient (dollar-based system) from expiring. It does so to keep some semblance of normalcy, as unless and until some other viable financial system is ready to step into the breech, a failure would mean the entire world as we know it will devolve within weeks to about the year 1600. This is why we must prepare with food, water, shelter, and protection supplies. Enough to get past this possible scenario, which I hope would not go betond 6 months or so, though it easily could.

Part of this buying of time on the part of the Fed and other CBs includes keeping fiat currencies desirable. This means gold and silver must be made to look to the general population like a kooky sort of investment that only fringe-lunatics would buy in size. Volatility does this quite well. Paper trading through HFT algos is exceedingly good at this, while making money off the peeps who think they can trade this articial "market." The paper trading that keeps gold and silver down also keeps the system running so that we aren't all attacked and maybe killed from the confusion and fear such a collapse would render.

My hope is that the elite do, in fact come up with a viable alternative to the failing debt-based system we have today--and soon. I want my kids and two grandkids to have a decent world to grow old in--not a mad-max lifestyle with life span of 12.

In the end, when the music stops, only those holding physical will be kept whole. The new financial system will not recognize true, full value in the old paper contracts that keeps everything under its thumb today, and that today appears to be exactly like, in value, the physical it represents.

No, the price explosion in gold and silver will only be for the physical. All ETF shares, COMEX futures contracts, options, and other certificates that show metal ownership will be cash-negotiated as of last close before it is all shut down. This is how it MUST be. The new system will not recognize 100:1 paper leverage by full value, because it is not physically possible. At least not for you and me. The big banks and governments will still use a fractional reserve system, I fear, so they'll still use leverage, though I don't think even they will allow for 100:1 as now.

I do not know what this new system will be like exactly. FOFOA sees a freegold system, wherein gold will be the numeraire, and all currencies will float against it. Strong currencies from countries with positive trade balances will be stronger than those from countries with deficits, so stronger currencies would be able to trade more easily for gold or any other desired item.

We've seen some experts talk about a return to some sort of a gold standard. Fixing the price of gold has been done in the past, but governments cannot contain themselves, and will print fiat (inflate), causing gold to want to rise. This defeats the government's goals.

So, some sort of a floating mechanism as FOFOA says is coming does have merit. In today's dollars, he feels a price of $55,000 per ounce would be required to make it work. Other prices would also go up for energy, food, etc., but nothing like gold, FOFOA purports, because governments and/or their CBs would directly bid for gold, raising their bids until the price got to their target. The government would not be bidding for food, energy, etc. in the same way. Only gold, and maybe silver too, to re-establish a stockpile. FOFOA does not think silver will be used montarily, as its too important for industry, but I think silver will rise at least as much as gold, because the government will want to regain control of that strategic metal.

So, the arguments about trading and TA in PMs are only temporary in my considered opinion, as the problems are just too big to allow gold and silver trading to continue into the future, with banker-induced leverage of 100:1 as we have today. This may be what Sinclair alludes to, in some way. I don't know. But, my mind is made up. I believe the only way to have a chance atsuccessfully crossing over to the new financial system will require owning the physical metals in personal possession. Since I don't know which Sunday night this new system will be unveiled, I stay away from all other non-physical PMs, except for a few stocks that I will soon be selling, as they've been knocked to near worthlessness anyway since May 2011.

(repost from end of last thread)

Chibster's picture

Fundamentals not changed. Time is near.

The fundamentals have not changed.

What was broke in 2008 is not fixed.  As a matter of fact it is worse.

They are printing more and more money out of thin air.

Debt is being "fixed" with more and more debt!

People are now awake.  I have met more and more people from all corners of life that are now stackers.

The time is near.

¤'s picture

Lots and lots of ...

...news articles and charts starting at this link from the previous thread.

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/226827#comment-226827

I should know better by now and wait a little longer on Saturday a.m.'s enlightened

Thanks for the update!

More "End' in the Speak to follow wink

Chibster's picture

You should read hilarious article on Ft Knox

quote:

Fort Knox, an Impregnable Monument to Security Theater

Oct 16, 2012 7:04 AM GMT-1000

"During the panic of 1792, the Bank of North America tried to stave off a run by having employees “carry its specie busily to and from the cellar in order to give a magnified notion of what it had,”historian Bray Hammond wrote. Bank managers “ostentatiously brought in deposits of gold and silver that had unostentatiously been carried out a little while before.”

The show of specie reassured jittery customers, saving the bank from failure. As a young clerk in Iowa during the panic of 1907, Hammond recalled employing exactly the same dodge: heaping impressively large sacks of low-value coin in plain view and ostentatiously counting it to give the impression of overflowing vaults.

...

The Treasury kept the actual moving day secret, and it didn’t divulge where the bullion sent to Fort Knox came from, or exactly how much was moved. But it took pains to call attention to the gold’s enormous but unspecified value. The elaborate and well-publicized precautions demonstrated unmistakably that the U.S. owned the gold, that the gold was immensely valuable and that it now sat in an impregnable fortress in the nation’s heartland."

read more at link:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-16/fort-knox-an-impregnable-monument-to-security-theater.html

¤'s picture

A little SNL...

...on a Saturday a.m.

Did someone mention Hanz & Franz

http://www.hulu.com/#!watch/277082

tpbeta's picture

Thanks Turd

It's quite stressful holding PMs and this kind of thing can't be said too often.

worldend666's picture

Just Reposting

Just reporting my comment from the last thread because I agree with TF and it makes me look clever :)

Hi all

I think Monday will mark the bottom and the end of the cup and handle which goes back to March. Friday's steep sell off was nasty but the previous dips since October 5th were all double dips, so given there was no bounce on Friday evening we can expect more selling on Monday perhaps to 1705. That's where my buy order lies. I am in agreement with Ivars that after this dip there should be a rally lasting a few days and then another dip climaxing on November 1st after which a rally in earnest should begin.

Good luck to everyone:)

Marcus's picture

Impact of November elections on PMs

What say you on the impact of the elections with regard to PMs, Monsieur Turd? Oh, I know that fundamentally, nothing has changed, but do you feel that recent suppression schemes will abate after November 6th and that it's a tough slog for the PMs until then? It has been maddening to watch the market movements of late. Euro goes up, Eurogold goes down, USgold goes down in sympathy with Eurogold. Or, conversely, Euro goes down, Eurogold goes up, USgold goes down in sympathy with Euro. In either case, USgold goes down. What type of madness and stinking disconnect is this? Your thoughts?

Cononish1314's picture

Afterglow [?] of HEH: question for TF

If HEH is still on then can you say if it:

a) starts on our side of The Pond

b) starts on your side of The Pond

c) starts outside "The West" altogether ?

And as a supplementary: Where will Joe Public perceive it as starting?

[And if California Lawyer chooses to further cross-examine you then you can cite such-and-such Amendment.]

moguls's picture

FOMC

... Time for another FOMC statement rally on wednesday. 

tyberious's picture

Germany's gold reserves Sat

Germany's gold reserves
Sat Oct 20, 2012 11:6AM GMT
 
Broadcast Date: 19 Oct. 2012
In this edition of the show Max interviews Lars Schall from larsschall.com.

He talks about Germany's gold reserves, which are held in New York and not in Germany.

http://www.presstv.com/Program/267775.html

El Gordo's picture

Getting tired

I'm getting tired and bored clinking the same old rounds over and over again.  Time to go get some new ones as soon as the price drops Sunday nite or Monday.  If a few are good, a whole bunch is better.

Monedas's picture

My End Game !

I tell the bums, "I hire for food !" !    No takers so far !      Monedas     1929      Comedy Jihad "Stacking" And "Prepping" Are Hoarding World Tour   devil

Nana's picture

The DOTS Have Been Busy Getting Everything In Place

And so should you.

fast mover's picture

Since Turd is dragging up Jan 2011 Turd's Bottom archives...

Turd's Bottom was called on the Outside Reversal Day found on Jan 28, 2011 from this chart:

I was about to capitulate and cash out of my SLV calls...but Turd called this and I stuck it out.

How does today's silver chart look?

I'm seeing support near $31.

FM

retireyoung's picture

The end is near? Probably not!

Every now and then I check back in here in order to learn about the various avenues of destruction our civilization is traveling down.  Today is a perfect example. 

I realize that the person who refers to himself in the third person as Turd may be using "the end is near" as merely a euphemism.  But still--over many months the general tone here is reflective of  warning how our culture is soon coming to an end in various ways and how to prepare for it. 

To an extent, that is very healthy and helpful.  Do not depend on our government for assistance in times of natural disasters ; have an emergency supply of various items that will allow you to survive.

But to live ones life in the apparent certainty that soon forces will combine to change our way of life is unhealthy and to be avoided.  The third person Turd (it still amazes me that credence should be given to someone who calls himself Turd  and in the third person as well!)  Anyway--the war drums here have been tumpety tumping for several years regarding the ME.  Total war is coming and coming soon.  Tumpety Tump!  NUTS ! The usual mayhem is ongoing, admittedly, but total war is not happening and probably not going to happen soon.  Prepare yes--but to live ones life in fear is to negate any quality of life that you may have.

Turd's accuracy in predicting the future course of precious metals pricing has been awful.  It would be clear that for most people who have begun stacking in the last few years--you are under water a whole lot on your investment.  (and PM's should not be regarded a insurance--if so the premium is awfully high!

As for our economy--it is abysmal. Lots of people are hurting and will continue to hurt.  Back in the day when I graduated from college--and from law school--it was pretty much guaranteed that if you had the education and didn't go out commit felonies--you were pretty much assured of a career.  Not so now--and I hurt for such people who have done everything right and still face a bleak future. 

But to live one's life in fear--to live for stocking guns, ammo, silver and gold for some disaster that is impending is to deny any enjoyment that life may still bring. 

Now you may wonder why I hang around here.  And I have for a long time.  But less so lately.  Anyway, I enjoy LCS stories and I am a stacker since 1964--not because I think I will be able to exchange a dime for a loaf of bread but  because, I admit, I like the stuff. 

I often read the assertion that we are in "Turd's house" and we must be gracious and polite to Turd because we chose to enter his "house".  Certainly, gracious and polite are good.  But, looking at it another way, just because we are in Turd's house, we are his guests and he should be polite and gracious to us.  And I notice very little of that coming from him to people who question his values. 

So live your life--visit a museum--do volunteer work--converse with friends--but I urge you to spend less time on the computer.

Xty's picture

Saturday humour sort of ...

heard an interesting Chinese proverb the other day:

When there is food on the table there are many problems.  When there is no food on the table there is one problem.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Our long-lost friend, retireyoung...

MODERATOR

....emerges from his hole, six weeks after we last saw him. (Apparently he had seen his shadow last time.)

_____________________________________________________________________________________

I believe that it verges on being irresponsible to predict the "imminent failure and ruin" of Morgan Stanley based on  references to "chatter".   SKOAT has also been beating the war drums (tump tump) for over a year now in the Middle East. Israel remains secure however.

It is good to learn, though, that the "major restructuring" of the metals market has been delayed due to circumstances beyond SKOAT's control. 

___________________________________________________________________________________

There can be no more bullish sign, everyone. Thank you for confirming the bottom. We are all relieved!

Before I leave for the day, I should give you some kind of update on the "explosive" move that has yet to materialize...

This process was begun last spring. Work was done all summer and the defining act was committed and logged on 8/8/12. I expected an immediate response. Though some of my friends claim that the rally from $27-35 was at least partially related, I'm not convinced. I think the rally was simple anticipation of QE∞. We are now seeing a pullback that is nearly identical to the post-QE2 pullback of January 2011.

The explosive and historic revelations and changes are still, ultimately, going to come. Whether this happens next week, next month or next year matters little. Some have said that the timing of things has cost me "credibility". Fine. Frankly, I didn't know I had any cred to lose in the first place! I'm just a dope with a MacBook, afterall.

Not just me but all of us will soon feel some sort of vindication. Patience.

SilverSurfers's picture

Ha! Bert Just Started

If you are a long term investor, 32 31 30, dont matter one bit, other than being a good time to buy. 

So, down on main beach, is a cement table, right there on in front of volleyball courts, the sand the ocean, what a view, and this table, "Bert's Table" as it is known locally, has tile pieces inlaid as a chess board, and this guy name Bert plays there every day, been so, since at least 2004 campaign season, but there much longer than that. He is an expert chess player, kinda like the deaf dumb blind guy with crazy flicker fingers, he never loses, in the 10 years I have know him. We get along, though he, like me, somewhat cantankerous at times. But, you just know he is living on a shoe string, just by looking at him. The thing is, he has a great location. Shows up for work every day, same bat table, same bat time.

So, today, I drove down to meet Bert, and gave him 8 ASE, 1 Peace, 1 Liberty and 1 AGE, the sales price 50$ for Ag and 2000$ for AGE. He pockets 5$ a coin, and take proceeds and buy eagle, and put up another AGE if sold. The idea is that I want to see where this goes, he gots the location, and all he does is display a couple silver "Bert Good Luck Coins" and let people come to him.  No documents, no receipts, no nothing. Its all jungle love, on the street or the beach. So, I threw 2000$ bucks to the wind this morning, and gave Bert a shot to make some pocket change. If he does well, I will have him consigned stock for the many jewelry stores about town, and Laguna is like an ex-artist colony.  So, lets see how it goes. He definitely gets the traffic, and is a local icon, right there, center stage. Street Sales. The street money changers are back!!!!

Bert Just Started, Bullion Retail ..... on Main Beach Laguna Beach, Cali.

http://totalcontrol.blogtownhall.com/2009/03/14/us_government_preparing_for_2010-11_monetary_collapse.thtml

This is, of course, just one man's opinion, but I could be right. Maybe by then, I will have retired, and take up shaking $100,000 FRNs on the streets of Laguna Beach California, using my wheelbarrow, if not to infirm, to transport the necessary $1 silver eagle coins for the street exchange at $100,000 FRNs to $1 eagle.

Vie Gravarite Parusski? (You speak Russian)?

Dasvadaya Adein Dualler Billyett!!! (Good Bye One Dollar Bills)

Revelation's picture

Silver Thief!

Hide your Stash!!!!!

Xty's picture

I will not respond, I will not respond

but who has stolen the future?  

reefman's picture

Personally I think Sinclair

Personally I think Sinclair came across as being a "cocky know-it-all" in his post yesterday (maybe he's just an old grumpy 'grandpa'?). Not all of us are even old enough to have any experience/idea what was happening in the 1970's and very few people know exactly how it works. His tone was irritating like a splinter - kind of condescending if you ask me. 

I do appreciate his trying to explain things, but there are other questions I have, such as:

How, EXACTLY is the gold price determined? Is it the futures price, the COT price (longs vs. shorts)? How does the COT EXACTLY influence the price - if there is a huge short position, what exactly are they shorting (the PRICE, or actual metal)? Who owns the metal?

Anyway I am grateful for Sinclair's post, but he could be more helpful if he spoke in a simpler ("you should have known this by now, you simpleton") and less cryptic way. 

tobydaniel's picture

You know Turd

Just when I thought you couldn't possibly be any dumber, you go and do something like this..... and TOTALLY REDEEM YOURSELF! Good to hear your on a Macbook. Me too:) Gotta love Dumb and Dumber.

SilverSurfers's picture

Who ....

but who has stolen the future? those who hide the past.

but who will deliver the future? those who remember the past.

Watcher's picture

The Time IS Near

salmonfisherman's picture

Miners

I was expecting a pullback yesterday. I put several limit orders in on my miners at various levels expecting to see some of them filled. I had increasingly big orders at lower levels, starting at a 3% drop.  None of my limit orders were filled. I was expecting the miners to dive, as they have in the past, with a double whammy of heavy selling pressure on the DOW, and PM prices being hammered. My miners ended the day in the green. There is accumulation going on here. PM prices are going up soon.

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