10 11 12

Since this day only comes around once every 100 years, we might as well start another "Hat Contest"!!

As hard as it is to believe, one month from today we will celebrate our 2-year anniversary. Where has the time gone?? As legend has it...It was on 11/11/10 when, over lunch, MrsF suggested that I listen to the readers of ZH and start my own blog. "It's easy to do", she said. "Whaddayagottolose?", she asked. So, off we went, into the abyss. For old time's sake, here is post #1:

http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/11/test-this-is-only-test.html

Which was soon followed by this:

http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/11/our-buyers-of-size.html

(Only two posts in and we were already talking about "The Evil Empire" and "collapsing the Comex".) The battle continues to this day. Though their demise has taken longer than expected, it has only grown more certain.

To that end...The Hat Contest. Let's have three this time. Since 11/11/12 is a Sunday, let's go with the 11/9/12 closing prices of the Dec12 silver, the Dec12 gold and the Dec12 crude.

There will likely be three, separate winners but, if anyone can catch lightning in a bottle and predict all three, I'll fish a silver eagle out of the pond out back and pass it along, too. I'll clearly need some help with this so I'll need a volunteer to compile all the guesses on a spreadsheet. (This kind person gets a hat, too.)

So, have at it. Let's use the comments of this thread for the guesses. I'll close the thread tomorrow morning when I post the next update.

Back to the action at hand....The Pig rolled over earlier today and the metals began to catch a bid. We were set up for a strong open on the Comex and we got it. Sadly, the party was cut short by another completely bogus and bullshit BLS report. This time it was the weekly jobless claims. Why do I say bogus and BS? Because the BLS clearly states that "one large state failed to report some quarterly figures". So, rather than issuing an accurate report, the BLS gleefully releases an incomplete report that generates a headline of "Lowest Initial Claims Number Since 2008".

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-11/data-massaging-continues-initial-claims-tumble-339k-lowest-2008-far-below-lowest-exp

Again, not that this is real. It's based on incomplete data and will just need to be revised next week but, by then, who will care? Just when President O'Bottom needs some positive news to hang his hat on, he gets it! And, what do you want to bet that the "large state" in question is Illinois??? (Thanks to Jim Comiskey for pointing that out earlier.)

http://www.businessinsider.com/jobless-claims-impacted-by-one-state-2012-10

Whatever, the report was incentive enough to repel the metals from breaking resistance. Silver, in particular, was right on the doorstep with a high of $34.38 just before the data was released. What is nice, though, was that the selling was brief and really wasn't all that steep. This has led the metals to subsequently recover and, therefore, all is not lost.

And when we look at the longer-term charts, we can clearly see the overall strength of the metals. First, check out these 2-hour charts. Note that the sharp declines from Friday have played themselves out and the metals have now found support and rallied. Maintaining our footing today should set us up for a strong finish to the week tomorrow.

Now look at these 12-hour charts. Though The Bad Guys have been valiant in their attempts to contain price post-QE∞, they are clearly playing a losing game. Pressure simply continues to build against them and, the longer they artificially restrain price, the more powerful the explosion will be once their resistance fails. Just like April 2011 in silver when price ran from $38 to $48. Just like August 2011 in gold when price ran from $1650 to $1920. When The Cartels are forced to retreat and painfully cover misbegotten shorts, the short-term price moves can be...shall we say...dynamic.

So, that's all for today. It already almost lunchtime so I think I'll wrap it up right here. Have a great day and let's look forward to a solid Friday. Good luck with the contest!

TF