Looking Ahead

Saturday, October 6, 2012 at 12:56 pm

Unfortunately, all the White-Out in the world wouldn't have been enough to hold back the BS of the BLS. So, after failing to get our breakout yesterday, we must regroup and reassess.

On the bright side the charts still look pretty clear and we'll get to them in a minute. First, we have to address the outrageous CoTs from yesterday.

Outrageous, disgusting and pathetic. These are just a few of the terms that could be used to describe the latest actions of The Cartels as well as the inaction of the CFTC. Despite all of the "good cop" bluster of "Thunderlips and Baldy", the remain collusive partners in crime and enablers of The Cartels. Here is the conclusive data:

GOLD

Tuesday, 8/14: Price closed $1602. Total Gold Cartel gross short position 291,358. Net short ratio 1.98:1.

Tuesday, 9/11: This is the Tuesday before the surprise announcement of QE∞. Price closed $1735. Total Cartel gross short position 380,239 (+30%). Net short ratio 2.66:1.

Tuesday, 10/2: Price closed $1775. Total Cartel gross short position 405,520 (+7% from pre QE∞ level). Net short ratio 2.98:1.

SILVER

Tuesday, 8/14: Price closed $27.85. Total EE gross short position 71,199. Net short ratio 1.49:1.

Tuesday, 9/11: Price closed $33.57. Total EE gross short position 79,478 (+11.6%). Net short ratio 2.47:1.

Tuesday, 10/2: Price closed $34.67. Total EE gross short position 93,628 (+17.8% from pre QE∞ level). Net short ratio 2.62:1.

Again, this is grotesque. In gold, The Cartel has doubled their net short ratio in this 6-week rally from $1602 to $1775, from roughly 2:1 to the current 3:1.

Silver is where the real outrage should lay. That the comically-ineffective CFTC has yet to conclude that manipulation exists is beyond belief. Not only did The Evil Empire (namely JPM) increase their gross short position by almost 12% during the initial rally pre-QE∞, they have sped up the issuance of unbacked paper by 50% in the days since! Note that, in the past three weeks alone, The EE has increased their gross short position by almost 18% to an unbelievably disgraceful 93,628 contracts. And, since the beginning of this rally, they have now increased their total net short position by 34,438 contracts for a change of +148%!!

Again, this is outrageous! In attempting to cap price and protect the buy-stops above $35.50, the EE has added 14,150 brand new paper short contracts in just the past three weeks. If forced to deliver and supply actual metal, this is the equivalent of 71,000,000 ounces of silver! Even using the worthless GFMS numbers, that's 10% of all silver to be mined in 2012! Again, the only word that comes to mind is outrageous.

<deep, calming breath>

<another one>

OK, please don't get discouraged, however. What these arrogant fools seemingly fail to understand is that their era has ended. Like a dinosaur across the planet from the Yucatan when the asteroid hit, they are continuing upon their merry way, unaware that the seeds of their destruction have already been sown. Physical demand plus other, pending extraordinary events will soon crush them. Patience, grasshoppah. You should be utilizing this time to continue padding your stack. You might also consider buying popcorn and other refreshments because, when this Cartel scheme finally collapses...and it soon will..the resulting fireworks show is going to spectacular.

Here are your charts for the week ahead. From the looks of it, we should probably expect 5 to 7 more trading days under this lousy cap. Time, however, is rapidly passing through The Witch's hourglass. Again, just be patient and you will be rewarded.

First, the clear technical rationale for the against-all-odds, desperate capping effort:

These 8-hour charts show the closing of longer-term "triangles":

And these RSI charts show that just a little more time may be needed to work off any remaining "over-bought" conditions:

So, that's all for now. I've nearly blown my entire Saturday morning putting this post together and I think it's time to go watch some football. I hope that you have a relaxing and fun weekend. More on Monday!!

TF

Comments

treefrog's picture

first!

Submitted by treefrog on October 6, 2012 - 12:56pm.

!rivet! !rivet! !kneedeep!

RRJJ's picture

Thanks for the update Turd!

Submitted by RRJJ on October 6, 2012 - 1:02pm.

Thanks for the update Turd!

Istack's picture

I will try

Submitted by Istack on October 6, 2012 - 1:03pm.

to not get discouraged

croc987's picture

"Jobs report truthers" beware--MSM is onto you

Submitted by croc987 on October 6, 2012 - 1:09pm.

The fearless and intrepid reporters at AP are busy exposing the "job truthers" who foolishly impugn the jobs report.  Shame on them!  They are probably gold and silver bugs too. 

"Sasquatch might as well have traipsed across the White House lawn Friday with a lost Warren Commission file on his way to the studio where NASA staged the moon landing.  Conspiracy theorists came out in force after the government reported a sudden drop in the U.S. unemployment rate one month before Election Day. Their message: The Obama administration would do anything to ensure a November victory, including manipulating unemployment data.  The conspiracy was widely rejected. Officials at the Labor Department said the jobs figures are calculated by highly trained government employees without any political interference. Democrats and even some Republicans said they also found the charges implausible. Yet that didn't stop the chatter. The allegations were a measure of how politicized the monthly unemployment report has become near the end of a campaign that has focused on the economy and jobs."

http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2012/oct/05/us-economy-skeptics/

LOL.  New low in spin and mope?  

Sisyphus's picture

@croc987

Submitted by Sisyphus on October 6, 2012 - 1:16pm.

"..the jobs figures are calculated by highly trained government employees.."

Sisyphus's picture

Thanks Turd. Great post.

Submitted by Sisyphus on October 6, 2012 - 1:19pm.

Will delay suicide for a few weeks. But I'll see your 5-7 trading days and raise it to 20-30. I have a feeling we're stuck until sometime in November.

This is based on the well-known technical technique known as WAG, and I'm usually wrong.smiley

Monedas's picture

The Patriotic Season !

Submitted by Monedas on October 6, 2012 - 1:20pm.

In honor of the upcoming debates, elections, Memorial Day, Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Years .... I translate same American Folklore for my fellow Turders !               Yankee Doodle (His "Noodle" i.e. Penis .... our randy but proper founders were uncomfortable with direct references to private parts !)  ....   went to town .... riding on his pony !  (He was out looking for some damsel action !)    He stuck a feather in his cap ( He scored and was putting a hash mark on his "Rifle Butt" !)  .... and called it macaroni !   ( He scored with an Italian immigrant's daughter down by the Jersey shore !)     And with the girls be handy !  (This needs no explication, does it, Xty and Dagney ?)        Monedas      1929        Comedy Jihad Colonial Perspectives For The Holy Days Tour    devil

Zepher Stone's picture

Happy Times for the Ruling Elite!!!

Submitted by Zepher Stone on October 6, 2012 - 1:23pm.

How long are people going to keep believing in Left and Right???  I'm sure the 152 year old moderator was thrilled to hear that entitlements for baby boomers will not be touched by BOTH candidates.   Awesome!  Let's keep pretending the elephant (and I don't mean Republican) is completely ignored for another 4 years while we pile on a few more trillion.  Just an honest snapshot of the budget will reveal, even if you tax the rich 100%, you still will come nowhere close to balancing the budget.  It's a non argument!  So whatever they're arguing about is just smokescreen and mirrors, either way they win.  They're rich Bitchez!!!    

I tried breaking the silver game down with a couple of good friends yesterday.  The psychological barrier of the mass normalcy bias is truly dynamic.  After referencing USdebtclock.org and examining the unfunded liabilities > $120 trillion, both friends freely admitted to the oncoming debt bubble explosion, yet they were still paralyzed to do anything about it.  Geez.  But at least I got my friend with a family to stock some food. 

ReachWest's picture

Tiring

Submitted by ReachWest on October 6, 2012 - 1:26pm.

Thanks for the Charts and insight, Turd.

Sounds like we probably have another week or two of this capping BS to contend with - just enough time to place a couple of more physical orders. 

This action certainly is tiring - but - I don't think any of us that have watched it for a protracted period should be surprised. The EE was never expected to go quietly into the night.

Silvergunn's picture

Nice time to prepare the garden for fall

Submitted by Silvergunn on October 6, 2012 - 1:28pm.

Thanks Turd, patients here is key!

Top ten and read/digested all the charts and analysis ;)

Here is a free download!

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/4244/lds-preparedness-manual

Puck T. Smith's picture

Oh, Turd

Submitted by Puck T. Smith on October 6, 2012 - 1:29pm.

"other, pending extraordinary events"

You a such a tease.

In other news, I made my first trip to a local coin shop today...

I got there about 10 minutes after they opened and there were already five or six people.  One guy bought a $1,000 worth of one oz. bars.  Another was looking at 10s.  There was a woman who was probably selling based on the downcast look on her face.  I felt bad for her.

I asked the guy if this was normal level business.  He said, no, they would probably be packed with buyers before the day was out.  He told me he has been averaging about 16,000 rounds and ASE's per week for quite a while!  I should have known better considering the shop is in the congressional district that has been electing Roscoe Bartlett since the invention of dirt.

I am very happy with my purchase and will probably become a regular.  Their prices were competitive with the online sources I've used. I had to pay sales tax, but it wasn't any worse than the shipping & handling charges I'm used to paying.

On top of that, I'm heading out to my friends' place in the country for food, drink and some guitar playing.  Happy Saturday!

Gramp's picture

Have a good Weekend Everyone!

Submitted by Gramp on October 6, 2012 - 1:29pm.

Hey TF, Don't sweat the small stuff!

  Thanks for putting together the charts and post.

I 'unplugged' from the Matrix for a few days last week, and my head was much clearer.

Maybe go out to dinner with the family, or get ice cream,  go fishing, a drive on a  scenic road... stuff like that!

The Markets and it's Manipulators are going to do what they are going to do.

Let-oM!

OutLookingIn's picture

So Far, Same Old, Same Old

Submitted by OutLookingIn on October 6, 2012 - 1:30pm.

Gold is up $45.55/oz over this past month, but the real target for the EE is silver, up only $0.82/oz over this same time period.

I suppose we should be glad that they are up instead of down! But just think where they would be without the manipulated criminal actions of the EE. James Turk in todays Ed Steer's gold and silver report had some very interesting things to say about the situation; "Gold's value is calculated as a function of ever-inflating government-issued currencies." A chart in the report shows the major worlds cumulative total, central banks balance sheet, overlaid on gold's price rise since 2000.  

If you don't subscribe to Ed Steer's daily gold and silver report, you really should consider it. Its free and is delivered to your email inbox, early each morning.

Admiral Ag Bar's picture

just a thought...

Submitted by Admiral Ag Bar on October 6, 2012 - 1:40pm.

...if the EE shorts are getting more concentrated, won't that make for an epic short squueeeeeeeeeeeeeeze? 

Panicked shorts trying to cram through a narrow doorframe?  I like it.

Thanks Turd for another great post.

Magpie's picture

A site listing pending and recent layoffs

Submitted by Magpie on October 6, 2012 - 1:42pm.

Hard to believe the UE rate went down after looking at the info here:

http://www.dailyjobcuts.com/#sthash.0aUgEUQP.HyH6STQL.dpbs

Gramp's picture

Nice Coinage there Puck!

Submitted by Gramp on October 6, 2012 - 1:46pm.

Imagine it... they try to call what was REAL MONEY... wait for it... Junk silver!

   It is amazing that most people in their 30's or even 40's  DON"T even know that our 'money' used to be real silver until 1964.

The Bank Tellers know, asI guess they should, it being their job to handle currency.  

  I was asking my friend if his sister- in law, who works at a Bank, could help us with coin rolls to search.  Well, they played dumb about it, and come to find out she was setting aside all the silver and having her little  brother trade it for Pot! surprise

  Oh the corruption never stops!

DayStar's picture

Harvey's Up!

Submitted by DayStar on October 6, 2012 - 2:06pm.

Admiral Sprott sent his First Mate (John Embry) to KWN with an interesting assessment of gold price vis-à-vis its physical availability.  Harvey gives his assessment of this weeks COT, Agnico fires striking miners after being burned out, Indian investors shift PM buying focus, and Cyprus looks to Russia for help; all this and more on the Harvey Report!  http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/221768#comment-221768

DayStar

OutLookingIn's picture

Could It Be? Real-Time Data...

Submitted by OutLookingIn on October 6, 2012 - 2:11pm.

I'm a fan of Charles Biderman and Madeline Schnapp over at TrimTabs.

They study the real-time income tax withholding data/daily deposits to the U.S. Treasury from all salaried U.S. employees. From this real-time data they have historically, accurately forecast turning points in the labor market.

http://www.trimtabs.com/blog/2012/10/05/trimtabs-says-bls-badly-missing-current-acceleration-job-growth/

This site is honest and trustworthy. Over the years I have found their insights to be remarkably accurate.

Prize Fighter's picture

What does this mean?

Submitted by Prize Fighter on October 6, 2012 - 2:19pm.

http://www.jsmineset.com/2012/10/05/in-the-news-today-1328/

Gold will protect you in this transition. Silver will give you a cheap thrill followed by a spiritual experience devoid of a teacher.

Respectfully,
Jim

I honestly don't know if he's saying silver will rise dramatically only to fall back or silver's rise will be huge.  He doesn't speak much about silver so I can't even read between the lines here.  Anyone?

Cononish1314's picture

Macaronic (don't try ironic)

Submitted by Cononish1314 on October 6, 2012 - 2:21pm.

er...thanks for that Monedas (viz. Sid The Sexist cf. Geordie Shore) Always knew you wild colonial boys had some culture (though you have kept it well hid).

Now all we need is some commentary on Blythe and The Situation.

Cononish1314's picture

@ prizefighter

Submitted by Cononish1314 on October 6, 2012 - 2:29pm.

No method, no guru, no teacher?

(Given recent commentary about someone whom he once followed.)

Perhaps there's some kind of Eastern (coast of the USA) wisdom in simply posting pictures of dogs rather than frantically dissecting 2oo DMAs and the like.

Silvergunn's picture

@ Prize Fighter

Submitted by Silvergunn on October 6, 2012 - 2:35pm.

 

Prize Fighter

Does he mine any silver, maybe that is why and he is just biased against it?

It is hard not to be Bullish with the fundamentals in silver!!!

Puck T. Smith's picture

@PrizeFighter

Submitted by Puck T. Smith on October 6, 2012 - 2:37pm.

"Silver will give you a cheap thrill followed by a spiritual experience devoid of a teacher."

I think that's one of those Zen things that can't be explained, only known.

cheeky

 

Prize Fighter's picture

Ah, I think you're on it

Submitted by Prize Fighter on October 6, 2012 - 2:42pm.

Ah, I think you're on it Cononish.  To go boldly where no chartist has gone before?  I can live with that. 

It was the "cheap thrill" precursor which threw me as those are usually short lived.  It must be grand to live in a palace and talk in rhymes.  I can't understand why everyone just doesn't cuddle up with puppies and forget about making the bills.  I'm feeling punchy and my patience with his fortune cookie wisdom is growing thin. 

Prize Fighter's picture

Exactly Puck.  It gets old to

Submitted by Prize Fighter on October 6, 2012 - 2:44pm.

Exactly Puck.  It gets old to me.  Maybe I should stop reading him. 

Animal Sacrifice's picture

PPLT

Submitted by Animal Sacrifice on October 6, 2012 - 2:45pm.

Still all in PPLT in my IRA account except for my smaller ROTH in which I had a fetish chance to trade out of PPLT & I back into EXK with a "profit " I of over 1,000

Punk-Assets's picture

I'll bet Sinclair gets

Submitted by Punk-Assets on October 6, 2012 - 2:47pm.

I'll bet Sinclair gets several thousand irate emails with that silver related post. lmao

Silvergunn's picture

JS comments on Silver...

Submitted by Silvergunn on October 6, 2012 - 2:49pm.

The more I think about it, the more I see JS said that "he" will not be the teacher of the cheap thrills and spiritual experience ;)

After all he doesn't have any Silver lol

Animal Sacrifice's picture

PPLT part 2

Submitted by Animal Sacrifice on October 6, 2012 - 2:50pm.

1000 EXK shares. I'll trade them back for PPLT if I get a chance & the ratio holds.

California Lawyer's picture

Ponder This

Submitted by California Lawyer on October 6, 2012 - 2:50pm.

Reposted from end of last thread.  Something to ponder over the weekend.  I wanted to respond to others' comments about the rule of law, etc., especially in light of so much obvious (to us) manipulation, law-breaking, what not.  

The Rule of Law is meaningless in a non-civilized society, absent FORCE.  If force wanes and diminishes, the system cannot survive, because the populace will no longer refrain from instinctual violence.  The good folks will leave, the strong, violent folks will stay, and become tribal.  Look at Somalia.
 
Society in general has been breaking down from an onslaught of violence occurring from a lack of perceived force being brought to bear.  No state force (police, incarceration, consequences, etc.) = collapse of society under the "rule of law."  
 
The rule of law ONLY works when fear is present, or where there is some other noble societal norm that binds the people.  For example, in my line of work, there is no reason to hire me for many disputes.  Someone breaks a window, there is no need to lawyer up.  The person can just go pay for a new window, and no lawsuit or lawyer is needed.
 
But, when a big bank extends unsecured credit to a person, and the repayment terms and interest rate is grotesque (29%, plus late fees, etc.,) when the bank get free money from the Fed, then I have no problem at all jumping in and helping a person discharge that debt in a state-sponsored bankruptcy proceeding.  There is no self help there. No bank is going to voluntarily just walk away and stop hounding that person.
 
So, while there MAY be some utility in a state-sponsored legal system, and the rule of law is allowed to function in a semi-coherent manner, it is not the end of the analysis.  
 
Where, as in Detroit, and other similarly situated areas of the USA, the rule of law has broken down, either due to disregard or from lack of will or resources to enforce it, the system collapses, because we no longer have any noble purpose left.  Those in charge, in my humble opinion, the banksters, have corrupted the system beyond repair.  Nothing short of public hangings will suffice to fix this mess.  When is Corzine going to be prosecuted?  When is Bernanke going to be prosecuted for theft, treason, and looting of the resources from the taxpayers?  When are any of them going to be held to account under the rule of law?  How can there be any noble societal norm, when banksters create fiat paper instead of producing wealth from utilization of labor or resources?  Why is a person's labor worthless (exchangeable for nothing), yet a bankster's paper credit based on debt (promise to pay backed by NOTHING) so full of value?
 
We have lost our way.  There is no such thing as a noble societal norm any longer, and hence, the only thing keeping society from devolving to chaos and violence is state power dished out by local officers using force.  Anyone who thinks otherwise is delusional and dangerous.
 
But, what happens when that police presence is diminished?  Once the masses realize that police are not able to protect the population, society collapses.  There is no exception.
 
 
Ask why that situation has come to exist?
 
How could once-prosperous Detroit come to this?  There was no open war declared or fought in the streets.  There was no civil war.  There was no bombing campaign laying waste to the industrial buildings, infrastructure and residential districts.  There was no military blockade preventing commerce from taking place inside Detroit.  Detroit's currency was not debased in a hyperinflationary collapse.  There was no mass outbreak of pestilence, plague or disease.
 
So, what was it that happened, to take this once great city to this point of ruin?
 
Detroit is on American soil.  Rich soil.  Things grow in the ground.  There is ample connection to resources like energy, water, transportation hubs.  
 
So, what is the problem?
 
Federal Reserve fiat money?  Maybe a partial contributor, but not the sole causal factor.  If so, then how could one explain why no other place in America is like Detroit?
 
Public union workforce?  Maybe.  But once again, how to explain why no other place with a large public union workforce is like Detroit?
 
Private union workforce?  Maybe, and probably, but management is to blame for not stopping the problem before it got out of hand.
 
Govt intermeddling at all levels?  Almost certainly the biggest cause.  From everything from welfare of all forms (general aide to poor folks, food stamps, housing, name it, to the corporate welfare given to the big entities that were the too big to fail of their times), to tacit acceptance of marginal decline and guilt about past race relations that stopped real reform dead in its tracks, Detroit is a PERFECT example of what is coming to America.  I have NO DOUBT.
 
San Bernardino is next, and is but a precursor of the California decline.  
 
It is simply not sustainable. There is no political will.  The age of polite political discourse has died long ago.  Mass media and TV, along with Hollywood propagandists control the message, and NO ONE in California can overcome that juggernaut.
 
Look at the circuses of today.  Who knows what a Kardashian is up to? Or who Justin Bieber is?  Or which college football team is doing well, etc.?  But tell me, out of 100 people on the street, is there a single person who can recite the Bill of Rights?
 
No one is paying attention.  The collapse is inevitable.
 
The left refuse to acknowledge that their belief system is flawed.  Socialism is a failure, and does not work.  Statism/Cronyism/Collectivism is a failure.  Dictatorships are failures.  Yet, the left knows nothing else.  Sycophants push the message, while the core rots away.  
 
Californians are fleeing the state.  Tax revenues are declining.  Transfer payments are increasing, welfare rolls are increasing, violent crime is increasing, police personnel demand a greater share of the public treasury,  . . . sound familiar (uh, "Detroit" maybe?)
 
What is the solution?  Sound money, limited government, freedom.  Is it coming anytime soon?  No.
 
Prepare accordingly.
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