Hunch

Tuesday, September 25, 2012 at 3:28 pm

Just felt like I needed to put this out there.

The severity of the forced reversal back on Friday, followed by the beatdown of Sunday evening and the turnaround of today has made me a bit uneasy. It seems, at this moment, that The Cartel has more conviction to cap and hammer than The Good Guys have to buy. It all feels a bit coordinated, too.

If you ascribe to the theory of "managed ascent", these first days and weeks following the QE∞ announcement would seem to be a critical time for "management" of all things dollar-denominated. To have them explode in price so soon after the announcement would be a quid quo pro so obvious that even Helen Keller could see and hear it. So what do you do if you're a central planner, you encourage your goons to "intervene" and hold prices in check, maybe even cause brief declines. After a while, when prices resume their upward trajectories, the central planner can have plausible deniability needed to assert that his policies are not causing the price increases.

We first saw this last week in crude. QE∞ is announced just as MENA tensions are flaring and crude goes down? Seriously? How could that be? It wasn't a "fat finger" event that started the ball rolling but, in the end, that doesn't matter anyway. All that matters is that some trades were instigated to trip up the momentum and cause an unlikely reversal. Take out a few technical support levels and suddenly you've got crude back down near $90 and searching for a catalyst to regain its footing.

The same thing seems to be happening in the metals. After being capped all week, we were all patiently awaiting the next breakout and appeared to have it Friday morning. The overnight trade had been weak all week but Thursday into Friday it wasn't. And when the metals finally broke higher Friday morning, it looked like the real deal. Then, out of the blue, comes a sharp slam and the bulls get kneecapped. A further $15 decline on Sunday evening then further sapped the enthusiasm of buyers and now the metals just look weak. Buying enthusiasm has temporarily waned and this almost certainly  means that soon the sellers will be emboldened. Add to that the ridiculously large new short positions of the banks and the obscenely negative silver lease rates and you've got a correction just waiting to happen.

Again, now, let me go back and reiterate what I've told you several times: 5% corrections in gold and 10% corrections in silver happen all the time within bull market cycles. Do not let them catch you on the wrong foot. Global QE ∞ means that all fiat currency is being debased. The only alternative for wealth preservation is physical precious metal. You know this. I know this. Many, many others around the globe are coming to know this and the insatiable demand thus created will underpin and reverse every attempt to collapse price going forward for the foreseeable future.

IF a "correction" develops here, do not be afraid, be joyous. You will have been given an opportunity to buy even more precious metal in exchange for your soon-to-be-worthless fiat. So, relax, be happy and let's see where the rest of this week takes us.

TF

Comments

The Green Manalishi's picture

Hunch

Submitted by The Green Manalishi on September 25, 2012 - 3:30pm.

GIAFPO

RaulP's picture

I second that

Submitted by RaulP on September 25, 2012 - 3:33pm.

Second

zman's picture

Possible short term down

Submitted by zman on September 25, 2012 - 3:39pm.

Possible short term down targets? 

Gold-   1725-1740 oz

Silver-   32.50-33.00 oz

That's about as low as we go is my opinion!

Prize Fighter's picture

Someone say Hunch?

Submitted by Prize Fighter on September 25, 2012 - 3:41pm.

How about some Punch to go with it?

tmosley's picture

Don't have any fiat for

Submitted by tmosley on September 25, 2012 - 3:53pm.

Don't have any fiat for silver until November.

It's taunting me :(

Welsh Dragon's picture

Have Faith

Submitted by Welsh Dragon on September 25, 2012 - 3:56pm.

Back to Basics:

The fed have announced open ended QE until something happens (which it ain't gonna) so it's QE to infinity.

As the Balance Sheet expands, the likelihood of accelerating inflation increases. When money velocity trend reverses, inflation will kick in with venom. That day is near and could be this year. Physical will suddenly be in high demand and by that time it'll be too late, even though the 'party' will have only just started.

NOW is the time to acquire physical & mining shares. The trend is up. Consolidations are healthy. They prompt us to reassess, take stock of the current state of the economy and give us further opportunity to see how messed up this world is and how important it is for us to own real, sustainable assets. 

Be assured - high and possibly hyper inflation is a real threat / opportunity and it's coming to a planet you're familiar with - soon! 

Eric Original's picture

Bullish

Submitted by Eric Original on September 25, 2012 - 4:07pm.

Stocks, metals, miners, oil, and oil companies are all north of any moving average you care to watch, plus we have global QE.   Stay long.  The biggest risk to your financial well being right now is holding too much cash (i.e. holding the bag).

EDIT:  Ok, not oil.  This will likely soon be rectified.  My point still stands.

Strongsidejedi's picture

good to be back

Submitted by Strongsidejedi on September 25, 2012 - 4:09pm.

on the PM chart watch.

The "TEOTWAKI" talk is giving me a headache.

ivars's picture

I still do not see any

Submitted by ivars on September 25, 2012 - 4:13pm.

I still do not see any further fall though, as usual, things are more protracted than expected (expectations needs to be offset to exclude wishful thinking ,which is  but  slowly becoming quantifiable both in time and price).

Move up tomorrow +wishful thinking factor of 1 day=Thursday.

Golden cross occurring tomorrow+wishful thinking factor of 4 days=Mondaywink

Turd Ferguson's picture

Starsky & Hunch

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on September 25, 2012 - 4:14pm.
MODERATOR

Response to: Hunch
HeNateMe's picture

Ivars - I Like the Cut of Your Jib

Submitted by HeNateMe on September 25, 2012 - 4:28pm.

I think I gave you a hard time when you first appeared at TFMR but I've realized over the past year and a half or so that I was mistaken.  Keep up the good work!

HNM

Money By Trading's picture

Gold Closes Below 10 DMA

Submitted by Money By Trading on September 25, 2012 - 4:32pm.

Turd is right.  Now is not the time for a gold bull to be fearful.  We're getting an especially good opportunity in miners.  See here:

http://wp.me/p2CT0a-62

The Green Manalishi's picture

Slightly cleaner version of the Hunchback of Morgan Damned

Submitted by The Green Manalishi on September 25, 2012 - 4:34pm.

Bollocks's picture

The windows don't open ...

Submitted by Bollocks on September 25, 2012 - 4:34pm.

Swineflogger's picture

Another Thought for the Day

Submitted by Swineflogger on September 25, 2012 - 4:39pm.

ltlredwagon's picture

New contest?

Submitted by ltlredwagon on September 25, 2012 - 4:47pm.

Just a thankful Turdite stacker, so I know zilch about analysis, except for what I'm learning from this site and a few others.  But it seems like it would be fun to have a contest for predicting when gold will hit 3000 and silver 60 (or some other targets if those are just not logical).   I have a few stacker friends and for so many reasons we feel we're in so much better shape than our friends who are "investing" in dollars.  But setting an actual target for PMs?   Well, nobody can do that in any meaningful way, right?  And you'd have to have some balls (albeit, anonymous balls) to come right out and state the date.   Whaddaya think, Turd?   If not, then at least could one of the Photoshop experts give us an image for "anonymous balls"...... hmmm, okay, maybe not.

Big Buffalo's picture

@ltlredwagon

Submitted by Big Buffalo on September 25, 2012 - 4:51pm.

I'll bet we see gold $2000 way before we see gold $3000.

Bollocks's picture

@Big Buffalo

Submitted by Bollocks on September 25, 2012 - 4:56pm.

Your intelligence astounds me.

Buckanear's picture

Wind Storm

Submitted by Buckanear on September 25, 2012 - 5:12pm.

Cartel is backed by the US government and how unlimited shorts they are wind storm we are farts

Standing By's picture

Guys, I hate to be the bearer

Submitted by Standing By on September 25, 2012 - 5:16pm.

Guys, I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but it's time someone step up and deliver the message.  First off, let me just say that I have been holding metals - all physical - for the past 5 years.  I am completely out of fiat.  And I am the biggest metals bug you may ever meet.

But I've gotta tell you, I have seriously misjudged the level and scope of manipulation out there.  It is MUCH stronger than it was several years ago.  Hell, it's even much stronger than it was a year ago.  I think the action post-QEInfinity has really awakened me to the fact that absolutely nothing that I can fathom in my pea brain will ever allow these goons to lose control of the markets again, absent a total collapse of the dollar.  They are playing this game so well that I actually feel must stand up and applaud.  "Well done, scum.  Well done."  Seriously, an official announcement is made to debase the dollar to infinity, and metals have essentially flatlined?  Really?  THERE IS LITERALLY NO END TO THE AMOUNT OF PAPER THAT THEY CAN THROW AT THE COMEX, FOLKS.  I think we all need to come to grips with what is occurring now.  Because my growing hunch/suspicion is that the closer the dollar gets to its final days, the TIGHTER (not looser) the vise of control will be.  This will result in forcing/keeping as many people into fiat as possible - until the hammer falls.  And when it falls, it will fall quickly, with scarcely enough time for most of us to liquidate/react/plan, etc.

If you are a prepper (and I am assuming a good chunk of us are), I think the best opportunity for liquidating and preparing has passed us (spring/summer 2011).  I think what we are looking at now is a very, very tightly-controlled rise in prices that will release in the last seconds, just before the looting begins.  Because truly, if QEI did so little to change investor confidence and sentiment, then nothing on the face of the earth will.  We could see Greece default, Spain behind it, followed by Italy - hell, we could see the entire Eurozone blow sky high - and I guarantee you that the metals market would barely react this point.

Dollar collapse = a free market for metals.

Until then, we be their b**itch.

Anyone disagree?

CaribSurfKing1's picture

Had we not had QE 2 weeks ago...

Submitted by CaribSurfKing1 on September 25, 2012 - 5:20pm.

We would be at $20/$1300 by now!

It would  have been short term scary for PM longs!

boatman's picture

if

Submitted by boatman on September 25, 2012 - 5:21pm.

the cartel's power was infinite gold would be 210$/oz.

boatman's picture

no

Submitted by boatman on September 25, 2012 - 5:22pm.

gold has a 1520$ asian floor.

the chart proves it.

kingboo's picture

What if.........

Submitted by kingboo on September 25, 2012 - 5:27pm.

speaking of just "putting it out there"......

What if the whole idea is for the TPTB to create the crisis in order to consolidate the banking, get them in a corner financially so you can bail them out...making them beholden to you....  And only then do TPTB call in the favor........and the favor is to manage the price of ALL CANARIES IN  THE COAL MINE....especially gold and silver, but not just gold and silver.....all tell-tales need manipulation until further notice....  Oh, and by the way......we are going to do this as long as it takes to build a bridge to a new currency........

What if they have ZERO plans of a free market ever discovering or (god forbid) setting a fair market value on any commodity during the crisis.......  

Why would they let honest money see "the light of day?"......

The answer is they wouldn't..........as long as they have control.

So the only question is do they still have control??   In my opinion they certainly do.....they still have a firm grip on perception management and they have mastered the "economic illusion"....

So, again.........What if they have full control, and no intention of ever letting honest money see the light of day? 

Tell me....what aspect of this illusion are they TRULY losing control over?  I honestly want to know?  And if these central banks and nation states are actually in concert? well then.......it's already over....

Ofcourse like Yogi Berra says.....it aint over til it's over.....

Bollocks's picture

Trouble up 'Mill...

Submitted by Bollocks on September 25, 2012 - 5:55pm.

Ford to axe 'hundreds' of jobs in Europe

Ford logo

US car giant Ford has said that it will cut several hundred jobs in Europe because of declining demand, including in the UK.

Jobs will also go in Germany and in other parts of Europe.

The carmaker will offer voluntary buyouts for staff and cut jobs for "agency workers and purchased service", it said.

Ford has warned its European operations could suffer losses of $1bn (£630m) this year.

The carmaker has said it does not yet know the final number of axed workers in Europe.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19722284

Dr G's picture

What a cluster f.I was

Submitted by Dr G on September 25, 2012 - 6:21pm.

What a cluster f.

I was sorely wrong in that QE 3 has done nothing immediate for metals prices. I assumed, perhaps naively, that it would send them up. It really hasn't done much at all in terms of giving them immediate strength. Both metals got a shot up post announcement and then haven't budged up since.

Part of me cares only because "they" aren't playing by the rules. That is the part of me that sits at work bored and turns to TFMetals to kill time and have some entertainment.

The other part of me doesn't care at all because I've been stacking for years and continue to add multiple times each week.

tyberious's picture

Goodbye QE3, Hello QE4

Submitted by tyberious on September 25, 2012 - 6:21pm.

Graceland Updates

By Stewart Thomson

  1. The gold consolidation may already be over.  Please click here now.  On this one month chart, you can see that since QE3 was announced on September 13, gold has essentially moved sideways.  That “trading box” is likely a consolidation pattern.
  2. Please click here now.  You are looking at a two day chart for gold.  A small but significant head & shoulders pattern has formed, implying that the gold price will rise above $1800, before a correction occurs. 
  3. Many technical indicators and oscillators are overbought on the daily chart, but they can stay that way, while gold marches higher.
  4. Investors who hold solid core positions in gold, silver, and gold stocks should stand their ground.  Traders could lighten up a bit, in the $1775-$1825 price area.
  5. Please click here now.  A beautiful channel has formed on the GDX daily chart.  A “non-confirmation” is highly likely now; GDX could move higher, while the technical indicators move lower.
  6. I would suggest that traders focus their attention on the green HSR (horizontal support & resistance) lines that I’ve highlighted on the chart.  The indicators and the trend channel are exciting to watch, but they don’t offer the same precise entry points that HSR does.
  7. Longer term investors should probably focus their buying around the important HSR at $48.72.  That point is also the “neckline” of a double bottom formation. 
  8. Please click here now.  The technical target of the double bottom is the $56-$58 price zone.  A rally towards that area would provide a great profit booking opportunity. 
  9. Gold has climbed about $270 from the lows, so keep in mind that any further strength is only going to make gold much more technically overbought than it is now, in the short term. 
  10. The $1775-$1825 area should be viewed as the “wild card zone”, because anything is possible.  Gold could shoot quite a bit higher, or careen lower. 
  11. Intestinal fortitude is going to be more important than charts or economic reports, during this stage of the gold bull market.
  12. Sell-offs are likely to get much more frightening, and price spikes could become enormous.  Unless the gold price arrives at one of your pre-set buy or sell points, try to ignore all the intra-day “stage drama”.  The drama is nothing more than static noise interfering with your golden symphony.
  13. Please click here now.  You are looking at the daily chart for oil.  Lower oil prices and higher gold prices tend to make institutional money managers very excited about gold stocks.
  14. The cost of operating a mining company drops when fuel prices drop.  Oil is also wealth itself, so I’ve drawn in some buy zones on the chart, highlighted with green lines. 
  15. Aggressive traders can buy oil in the $90-$95 area, while passive investors could focus on $75-$80.
  16. I’ve highlighted 3 areas to book some profit, with black lines.  The $97 target has already been hit.  
  17. QE3 has only barely started.  Some analysts have noted that defensive healthcare stocks are performing well, and they worry that this means another recession is coming.
  18. I think it’s far too early to call for a new leg down, especially when QE3 is only 2 weeks old.
  19. I’ve suggested that the current $40 billion a month cap on QE3 mortgage security purchases could grow substantially, and already Morgan Stanley’s chief American equity strategist is predicting QE4! 
  20. “QE3 will likely be insufficient to significantly boost equity markets and we wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the Fed dramatically augment this program (i.e., QE4) before year-end, particularly if economic and corporate news continue to deteriorate as they have over the past few weeks." – Adam Parker, chief U.S. equity strategist for Morgan Stanley, Sep.  24, 2012.
  21. It’s hard to see any fund or retail investor who is short gold, or out of gold, being very comfortable reading Adam Parker’s statement.  Major banks around the world are calling for much higher gold prices before year-end, and I believe the reason is because they anticipate QE3 being replaced with QE4.
  22. The key Employment Situation Report will be released by the U.S. Department Of Labor on October 5, and you can be reasonably sure that Ben Bernanke will have his eyes glued to it.
  23. The weekly jobless claims reports are not showing a noticeable drop in unemployment.  This means the Fed is more likely to accelerate their QE program.
  24. It’s possible that Dr. Bernanke holds the view that if the employment situation improves, it is because of his QE actions.  He could then press even harder on the money-printing accelerator pedal.  I expect QE3 to morph into QE4 very quickly, creating a surge in the gold price to record highs.  The gold correction is interesting, but new highs is where your real excitement lies!

Special Offer For Website Readers:  Send me and Email to freereports4@gracelandupdates.com and I’ll send you my free Barn Burner Report!  I’ll cover six senior gold stocks that I believe are set to blast to new highs by New Year’s Eve!  

Thanks!

Cheers

Dr G's picture

Aggressive traders can buy

Submitted by Dr G on September 25, 2012 - 6:26pm.

Aggressive traders can buy oil in the $90-$95 area, while passive investors could focus on $75-$80.

There is a crap load of room to buy between $80 and $90. And, oil sits right now comfortable between a multi-year upper and lower trend line. If it goes down to ride the lower trendline we should look for high $70s again. I think it's a buy now and certainly looks good another couple of bucks lower/bbl.

tyberious's picture

Are JPM's COMEX Silver Positions Only A Hedge Against Physical

Submitted by tyberious on September 25, 2012 - 6:38pm.
Are JPM's COMEX Silver Positions Only A Hedge Against Physical in the Warehouse?

Bix Weir
Printer-Friendly Format


  

Many people have emailed me an article going around the internet about JPM's short position being a hedge against physical silver that they own. A certain bullion banker claims that the banks don't manipulate gold or silver although the hedge funds do with computer programed algo trading. This bullion banker, David R, claims that all the banks do is arbitrage buying physical while simultaneously shorting COMEX contracts. Here's the article that I was sent:

http://www.silverdoctors.com/is-jp-morgan-shorting-paper-metals-while-acquiring-massive-physical-stockpiles-of-gold-silver/

My take: NOT A CHANCE IN THE WORLD for the following reasons:

1) There were 250 BILLION ounces of COMEX silver shorts sold in 2011 according to the CME data. How much silver was physically purchased to counter these shorts when JPM controls over 30% of the short according to CFTC's own data? Is David R. saying that JPM bought 75B ounces of physical in 2011?! Utterly ridiculous.

2) David R. claims that he can show the physical silver in JP Morgan's vaults. But wait...JP Morgan is the custodian of SLV which is supposed to hold 322M ounces of the physical silver in Trust for the ETF. If JPM is using the SLV inventory to justify their shorts it's the biggest fraud in history.

3) If there are grand warehouses of silver stockpiles...who owns them? How many times have they been "rehypothicated"? Is it leased-in silver that must be paid back? Are they part of a silver storage program? Are they "Moly-Bars"?

http://www.roadtoroota.com/public/212.cfm

4) To suggest that the large bullion banks don't use "also trading" and it's only done by the hedge funds is naive at best. Why wouldn't the largest, best funded traders use the best technology to improve their trading results. The simple fact is that the Bullion Banks have been using computer rigging programs since the 1970's as I've shown many times on the Road to Roota. Just ask the original computer program rigger Alan Greenspan!

Greenspan's Golden Secret
http://www.roadtoroota.com/public/101.cfm

5) The question of "manipulation" should be obvious to anyone who looks at the data from the CME. It's about CONCENTRATION and what effect it has on price. Do the trades of one or two traders distort the price of silver? If if these traders were removed from their long or short positions would it change the price? On the long side the answer is "NO" as there is no large concentration held. On the short side the answer is "YE"S as there are just a handful of short holders (JPM being the largest with over 30% of the net short currently).

And of course...

6) Since when did we start taking the word of admittedly one of the largest bullion bankers in the world?! It's like a mouse telling you he didn't take the cheese!

Doesn't it always seem like the "great silver destroyer revelations" come out right around the time that silver is about to take off? From everything I watch it is time to batton down the hatches and prepare for the silver fireworks.

If this article was a message from the bullion banker community to the awake and aware bullion investor then I believe the massage was delivered loud and clear...

BUY MORE SILVER BECAUSE THE BANKSTERS ARE DESPERATE!

May the Road you choose be the Right Road.

Bix Weir

www.RoadtoRoota.com

PS - There is a picture of huge stacks of what appears to be physical silver in some of the article postings. If you wonder why it looks a little odd it's because no warehouse in their right mind would stack silver 30 bars high without racking or pallets! Gotta love PHOTOSHOP!

tyberious's picture

Bix may be right on this one!

Submitted by tyberious on September 25, 2012 - 6:39pm.

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