Spinning Out Of Control

In the past 24 hours alone, we've seen:

  • A new IAEA report that discloses continuing Iranian nuclear tests.
  • China sending two warships toward islands disputed with Japan.
  • The U.S. Embassy in Cairo stormed and ransacked.
  • The U.S. consulate in Benghazi burned. The U.S. ambassador to Libya murdered along with 3 others.
  • Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu rebuffed by O'bottom when asking for a meeting in two weeks and stating that "the U.S. does not have a moral place to put a 'red light' before Israel" regarding Iran.

Please pray for peace while preparing for the worst. There can be no assurances regarding the future course of events. Therefore, please do not be a sheep. You do not want to be standing in line at Costco when all hell breaks loose. Everyone reading this site must be prepared for any eventuality.

In other news....The USDA released its latest Crop Report this morning. Please help me to reconcile this information:

  1. 52% of Iowa's corn and also 52% of the corn crop nationally is now rated "poor to very poor". http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/dmr/index.php/2012/09/10/iowa-corn-harvest-ten-per-cent-done-more-than-half-of-corn-in-poor-shape/
  2. The USDA now projects corn yields at 122.8 bushels/acre, which is about 25% lower than last year. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443884104577647331389763426.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Is the USDA attempting to "manage" the situation in the same way the BLS "manages" the employment numbers? Probably. Would the bureaucrats like to avoid soaring food prices into the election? Yes. However, unlike the seemingly infinite and open-ended economic reports, corn and soybean crops do have to eventually be harvested. Will the truth finally be known later this autumn? Again, probably. Until then, I'm looking for a dip to buy and hold in corn and/or soybeans and/or the DAG.

Despite all of the Mideast tension, crude was once again turned away from $98 earlier today. Higher gas prices before an election are not preferable, either, so God only knows who was selling here. Btw, I paid $4.01/gallon last evening for a fill-up. Anyway, I still ardently believe that the next UP push in crude is right around the corner. $101 or so would be the next target before once again back-filling and consolidating.

And if you're surprised by the action in the metals today, you clearly haven't been spending enough time here at TFMR. (http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4160/storm-flags-flying & http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4168/wild-week-ahead) Yes, that's a $1.50 plunge in silver you're seeing on the chart and, undoubtedly, there will be more to come. Silver has since rebounded to $33+ and gold never fell below $1725. This has to annoy The Cartel to no end as physical demand is trumping there ability to effectively raid paper price. Knowing this, we must expect more raids but they are likely now when volume is low. Today's Globex session, for example, will probably see some...uhhh, shall we say...weakness. All in all, though, that The Cartels are rigging lower prices ahead of The Bernank tomorrow is a very good sign. Perhaps you don't recall that, on 11/3/10, The Cartels raided price right up until the QE2 announcement. They knew what was coming and they were trying to initiate raids in order to cover shorts. http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/11/anatomy-of-ee-attack.html We are likely seeing the same strategy play out here.

As described earlier this week, a huge rally into tomorrow would have been a major warning signal the The Bernank was going to "disappoint" and that the banks were preparing to drop the hammer. That they've chosen, instead, to raid price 24+ hours before Bernank is actually quite bullish. So, be prepared for further weakness and selling cascades but do not be afraid. Look for a spot to buy the dip and cross your fingers for tomorrow. Again, though, I must stress: Whatever The Bernank announces tomorrow will be of little, long-term consequence. Additional, unlimited QE is on the way and my long-awaited historic rally is still inevitably approaching. Be long and be strong. Buy the dip and take delivery.

More later if necessary. Watch the Globex closely.

TF

377 Comments

bellyacre's picture

FIRST

Numer Uno

JackPutter's picture

I skipped right down here to say

First

chinaussiedoll's picture

Second ?

And way past my bedtime. Well at least in the top three!

krell's picture

FOURTH

No medal for 4th! :)

flaunt's picture

I like the way you think Turd

I like the way you think Turd :)

SIlverbee's picture

I could not resist fifth! and I read the post

Off to get 500 S oz

Air Garcia's picture

MCA and the boys said it best...

MMMM drop!

ferretflat's picture

corn harvest

My tenants told me yesterday that they were getting 60 bushels per acre, down over 2/3 ofnormal.

Paladex's picture

Hot & Explosive

Nice to see you being vindicated, Turd! Starting to look hot and explosive around here.

For anyone interested in "big picture" thinking, this interview with Martin Armstrong answers a lot of the questions that arise in discussions of the global debt crisis (such as, "What really caused it, and what could be done to fix it?"). Highly recommended for all Turdites.

http://mises.org/Community/blogs/hera/archive/2012/07/01/martin-armstrong-on-the-sovereign-debt-crisis.aspx

Just A Regular Guy's picture

To print or not to print, that is the question!

I say they print: US-10 year says so, Au/Ag sell-off says so, signal last Friday at the market open says so, Spain-10 year says so, jobs says so etc. etc.

The one thing that runs counter to all this is Goldman-Sachs saying QE is coming..... As Turd says, man up, BTFD.

Peace

EDIT: Paladex - great article mate!

Dr Jerome's picture

Just bought this dip

Even if Ben disappoints, I suspect we will still have some upward pressure on metals. I expect a mild rise tomorrow after some wild stop-hitting swings to shake people out--a large move up if he actually announces some liquidity.

On the other hand, IF Ben doesn't keep teasing the S&P algo frontrunners with promises of liquidity, markets could fall out the window. And this right before an election? That would be very interesting. I don't see it happening.

Obama needs stability for 60 more days. I expect more jawboning and no action. How can he announce more QE with the common lies we are being told by TPTB and their Ministry of Propaganda, AKA the manstream media.  

  • Obama is creating jobs
  • There is a housing rebound
  • Markets reflect economic health

"If all that is true, Ben, then why print more money?" But he can promise it and only the investor algos will be listening and searching the net for key terms. He keeps the 401K accounts fat and the sheeple sleep. Meanwhile Ben is sneaking money out the back door to fund the US deficit and shorting commodities to hold inflation down.

Two Gun Tobin's picture

Its Mining fashion week at Two Guns house

Modern day gold minerWhat I carry panning

Here's what I wear when I'm out chasing the elusive gold flake.   

Freight backpack, sluice with stand, 3 gallon buckets, screen w/2 gold pans, pry bar, whisk, rock hammer, scoop, hip waders

knee pads, first aid kit , water filter, multi knife and sunscreen.  This is about 25lbs of gear.   See you out in the gold fields!

Jan Roos's picture

Question for option traders

How do you guys set your stop losses on options?

Do you set the trigger based on the price of the option or the price of the underlying stock?

For instance, I have 15 SLV calls that I want to set a stop loss on. Do you I set the stop for when the price of SLV reaches a certain amount or the price of the options I bought? If the price of SLV how does one do that in Tdameritrade?

Thanks in advance.

Jan

CaribSurfKing's picture

The raid today almost confirms QE3/NGDPT tommorrow

Its going to be Nominal GDP targeting tomorrow, open ended like the ECB

Germany gave the go ahead to print!

Tomorrow is the blast off

Byzantium's picture

HUI signals

I only see it with a 45 minute delay, but it is in danger of turning positive for the day.

Isn't an up-day for the HUI, cartel-code for price rises tomorrow?

Buzz Wired's picture

I smell QE3

Agree 100% Turd.  The smack down in metals today wreaks of more imminent overt QE.  Good advice, be strong,  stay long and BTFD.

humbleprofits's picture

IRA and Housing

Good Day All,

I am writing to see if anyone has opened a Self-Directed IRA LLC.

Apparently, if done properly, you can invest in metals, real estate, business opportunities and the like.  It appears that you run the LLC which in turn acts as the custodian of the IRA.  It gives the LLC manager (you) the ability to write checks to invest in these alternative investments and traditional markets as well.  I read about it on irafinancialgroup.com while investigating IRA/physical possession of metals.  Warning, they are tax attorneys trying to sell their services, but they provide some fairly in depth introductory information.

I am curious if anyone has gone this route (via the site mentioned, their own accountant or tax lawyer…) and what their experience was like.

Thanks in advance.

Secondly, My wife and I are selling our house.  Took a promotion which requires a move.  Anyway, our realtor did sales comps and we listed the house "fairly."  Got a ton of traffic and two offers in four days.  Appraiser came in and slashed the value.  The buyers realtor also thought it was fairly priced and explained why we has so much traffic.  She then said there has been a run of unexpectedly low appraisals over the past three weeks. Not sure what this means, but makes me think that lenders are pulling in their horns.  I don't believe for one minute that the lenders and appraisers are "independent."  At first I was pissed, but am now glad to be rid of the house as I fear another housing downturn may be coming and those 'in the know" are preparing for it.

Humble

peckerwood's picture

all i got to say is

0dkO9.jpg

FortyTwoIsTheAnswer's picture

QE Tomorrow?

It seems to me that if the Fed prints tomorrow, commodities including food and oil will blast off. With a little under two months until the election, the resulting price increases will surely start to show up at the pump and local grocery stores before we go to polls. This would not bode well for Obama's chances for re-election.

Unless of course the Fed doesn't want Obama re-elected?  Or maybe they figure additional QE is already priced in?

But if the Fed waits to October, they could raise/sustain stock market and perhaps the commodities inflation wouldn't impact until after we vote.

Maybe tomorrow's outcome will signal where the Fed (and/or TPTB) stands on who they want to be our next president.

muscrat's picture

Reconciliation of corn rating and yields:

"25 = 50 because I say it does. Disagreers = seditious traitors." Easy peasy ;-)

“The question is,” said Humpty Dumpty, “which is to be MASTER — that’s all.”

Beastly Stack's picture

Careful

I sold my silver just above 33,not much a bounce and it looks like we could go lower into the close and later on globex.

And who knows how low they will take it by tomorrow morning!

Be careful guys!

ACM's picture

Corn And Beans And Barges

   Just anecdotal but south of I-80 in Illinois a lot of corn is crispy critters.  Last year bean plants were the biggest I have ever seen by a very large margin.  I am seeing field after field only ankle to shin high and very yellow.  Barges are not going to be able to transport without great difficulty unless we get significant rain.  Every creek or small river south of I-80 is dried up and the Illinois River is exceptionally low.  Strangely some irrigated corn is just sick looking.  I believe I am seeing corn blight but I'm no expert.  BAD BAD BAD. 

   And of course Obongo and the envirofascists demand corn ethanol in spite of its' horrendous inefficiency while inexpensive methanol, a superior fuel made from natgas or coal among other cheap and abundant ingredients languishes.

    If this clueless ideologue Obongo is reelected we are at the doorstep of complete collapse.

Fr. Bill's picture

Feeding the Turd ...

Reposted from the end of the previous thread, 'cause I wanna explain why ~everyone~ should feed the Turd ...

"I do HOPE that you periodically remember to tip the Turd if for no other reason than it was TF that freely has provided this site that has (partly) enabled yr good profits."

Oh, I have, and will.  

A couple of years ago, after sloshing through oceans of stuff about investments, I did something with fear and trembling, but did it anyway, 'cause I just couldn't see any alternatives that made ~any~ sense at all -- excepting for some income-producing real estate, I put everything else in metals, about 3:1  for gold:silver.

It was THEN that I stumbled on to this site via Zero Hedge.  

The first benefit was the tremendous sense of relief to find others (1) who were reaching the same concusions I had reached vis-a-vis conventional investing vehicles, and (2) who were making variations on my own decisions for managing the assets I happened to have.  At this point, of course, those decisions were purely "defensive."  I had no thought of growing my assets in this market environment.

And, then, I got to reading and reading and reading around here -- Mayor Turd, of course, and also many of the thoughtful people who post here frequently, sharing their analyses.

And, alongside all the stuff I'm reading here, I'm watching the movements in the silver and gold markets.  Oh boy.  Oh boy.  Did the light ever come on in places that were formerly so murkey. Indeed, it was Mayor Turd's fundamental premise -- that once one KNOWS that the PM markets are manipulated, you're over halfway home to anticipating what/how TPTB will act -- that showed me I could profit from this premise, especially as that premise has been further fleshed out by the observable trails that TPTB has left in their wake.

One of the most exciting developments this year is the reallocation of my PM holdings from 3:1 in favor of gold to 3:1 in favor of silver.  The reason I did this? It was a feature that seems to drive most investors ~away~ from silver, namely its volatility.  Buying dips and selling rallies is ever so much more profitable if there's lots of dips and rallies, dontcha know.  And, the percentage moves in silver -- 5 to 10 percent -- are so much greater than comprable fluctuations in the price of gold.  If gold goes up or down $10 today, that's a change of  ... what?

[firing up the calculator ...]

... about 0.6 percent.  This morning, already, silver has gone from 34 down to 32.50, a change of 4.4 percent.  If ivars is correct tomorrow -- that it could spike up to 36.00 -- that would be a change (as I type this, silver's 32.98) of a tad more than 9 percent!  

Now, I'm an old man, cautious as hell, and so I never book those changes in my own mad-money trading at BV.  No one does, of course.  But, you see, if I book half the amplitude of those changes ... well, in a year of that you end up with an amazing return!

I expect I'm not alone at all around here.  And, I also hope those -- especially the lurkers -- who have profited as I have will periodically feed the Turd.  They're fools ten times over if they don't do their part to keep Turdville ginnin' as it has been ever since I found this place.

enkidu's picture

On a lighter note

Say hello to my baby girl Jessica born on an unfortunate date 9-11 but it's something amazing instead of sad.

http://i51.photobucket.com/albums/f359/Enkidu1978/20120911_014910.jpg

ancientmoney's picture

paper gold vs. real gold

Good article discussing the differences, for those new to gold/PM investing . . .

http://goldsilver.com/article/paper-gold-and-gold-passbook-scams/

stingbee30's picture

RE: OIL prices will be contained

Why: Supply is increasing, and Saudi Arabia will try to accommodate the world markets....Europe is in deep Recession, and China's economy is deeply affected by the slow down in the European Markets.  I don't see much room for OIL.  Once again, we are going to see a divergence between PM and OIL.  PM will move with the printing of new money, and OIL will be contained by OPEC and increase supplies.  OIL might spike to $100 (with the QE tomorrow), but it will fall back towards the low $90's or mid $85's.

OIL trade and PM trade will diverge shortly.  The fundamentals are week for OIL, but not for PM. 

Israel war rhetoric will be contained...Israel will not have the balls to do anything without the US.

SteveW's picture

Corn yields

FWIW:

They're different metrics; the first is about quality the second is about yield.

If both are correct nationally, and I'm not saying they are, then the yield is 75% of last year and 52% of this 75% is of poor to very poor quality.

Odin's picture

No QE

I'm still sticking by my theory that the Fed won't announce QE tomorrow... Dow is up, election is immediate, and the lovely folks doing God's work at the Vampire Squid have being intentionally selling there muppets blatant lies for eons now... now is not the time... Nevertheless, should this be the case, it will be the best opportunity to BTFD since March...

TheFool's picture

Time for a new acronym...

Time for a new acronym: TYBM

Time to BTFD. My sentiments as well, Turd! Thanks!

Also, just watched this series of videos:

humbleprofits's picture

@enkidu

Congatz on your newest edition. 

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