Monkey Holiday Ends

On this first trading day of September, you can sure tell that the monkeys have returned from vacation.

All in all, though, I suppose we should feel pretty good about the action this morning. On cue, at 0600 New York time, the metals were shoved backward. In a matter of minutes, gold dropped $6 and silver fell 30c, just to let everyone know that "vacation" was over. After a rally at the Comex open (an opening rally that seems to happen daily now...a very good sign), the metals were beaten back again, this time for $8 and 25c. If not for this lousy set of headlines ( http://www.zerohedge.com/news/manufacturing-ism-misses-third-month-contraction-territory-biggest-miss-construction-spending-o), we were likely on our way to a test of 1680 and 31.50 support.

The lousy ISM number caused another spike in price and gold briefly traded above $1700, with the Dec12 reaching $1701.60. Of course, that couldn't be allowed to stand, either, and gold has since been beaten back $8 again to $1693. That'll probably do it for today and I would expect a (somewhat) rangebound trade from here. This is a CoT survey Tuesday so anything can happen, of course, but if today was going to be a "Happy Tuesday", I suspect we would have seen more of an extended rally. Besides, The Gold Cartel has already added so many new shorts in the past two weeks alone, it seems that they could hardly give a damn right now about perception and report-painting. They are simply trying to contain price in the hopes that they'll once again be able to start a cascade into which they'll be able to cover a few shorts.

As always, the question is: Will/Can they start the waterfall? From here, it looks like gold will soon trade with a $17** handle and besting that level should give gold the strength to rally toward 1720. Once above 1720, gold looks to rally toward 1750 and 1800...SO...I think we have to expect a concerted effort to contain price below the 1720 level. Will they succeed in the short term? Maybe. Does it matter in the long term? No.

Silver, too, is digesting its massive Friday gains quite well. With the Comex being closed yesterday, we now have a gap on the chart which will most likely be filled at some point this week. However, if silver does manage to dip down toward 31.50 and below, it would represent a major opportunity to btfd again. The arrogant fools of The Evil Empire apparently have no idea of the shitstorm that is about to rain down upon them. Their days are numbered and, consequently, the days of silver manipulation and price-rigging are numbered, too. If they had any actual brains in their collective heads, they'd have simply considered the macro supply/demand equation and then used this summer's 100-day consolidation period to flatten their positions and exit the silver market for good. Instead, they continue on with business as usual. Halfwit, idiotic, lamebrain, nitwit, numbskull, blockheaded, nincompoop dunces.

Just a word or two regarding crude. Buy. Some.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-03/israeli-officials-see-gap-with-u-s-widening-over-iran.html & http://www.debka.com/article/22331/If-Israel-attacks-Iran-US-Mid-East-bases-will-pay-dear-–-Nasrallah

And The Pig appears to be at a bit of a crossroads, too. The level around 81 is acting as support but, absent a rally back toward 82, 81 will likely fail and it will fall toward 80.

And the grains are rallying today, too. The November bean is once again making new contract and all-time highs as it threathens $18/bushel. WOW!!! The December corn has yet to follow the beans and I'm not entirely certain why. Perhaps there is still the looming specter of an EPA rescission of the ethanol mandate? Maybe? I speak with Jim Comiskey every other Wednesday over at TTM. Maybe he can shed some light on this tomorrow.

Regardless, the DAG is poised to finally break through $15 and, if it does, the next target looks to be about $16.50. You should be watching this closely.

Here are a couple of interesting articles for you to read:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-03/fed-moves-toward-open-ended-bond-purchases-to-satisfy-bernanke.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/9515510/Technicals-flash-amber-as-ECB-and-Fed-struggle-to-validate-rhetoric.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-04/food-stamp-use-climbed-to-record-46-7-million-in-june-u-s-says.html

http://www.cnbc.com/id/48889555

And that's all for now. As I close, I see that prices have remained relatively stable while I've been typing. That's always nice. Watch out for a Globex raid, though, as it is Tuesday and you should know by now that post-survey, Tuesday Globex raids are a Cartel specialty.

Have a great day!

TF

214 Comments

Istack's picture

My waiting is paying off

For the last 12 years or so I have been carrying an ounce of silver in my front left pocket (either a morgan or a silver eagle).  I love to pull it out and remind myself what is truly valuable.  It is a great reminder for me.  Last week I decided to help myself remember even more so I am upping the ante.  I now have a silver eagle in each front pocket.  I consider this a more balanced approach

Mr. Fix's picture

.SECOND!

It has become a daily ritual of mine to check in at TF metals just to see how the world is doing. The information here is astoundingly complete in how it is conveyed amongst us here. Ever since I started watching the gold and silver markets, I quickly became aware that the whole darn global economy is relevant. Turds Site has become my window on the world. Thank you all for being here today. Now, I can go back to lurking in the background ...........

PS.

@

Bluesman...

cool

Louie's picture

Thurd!

And here I was waiting in my mother's basement, continually  refreshing the page hoping to be first. 

Oh well, maybe tomorrow. 

SilverTree's picture

Stay sharp today.

My spider sense is tingling today, stay sharp my friends.

Daedalus Mugged's picture

Turd, Could you please recap

Turd,

Could you please recap any current predictions (prices, timing, ranges, etc) you have outstanding?

Thank you for all you do,

DM

Turd Ferguson's picture

I don't think I have any

MODERATOR

Other than expecting prices to surge much, much higher in the days/weeks/months ahead.

thesandbox's picture

Bluesman...

come on man you were right there...what happened? ;)

Money By Trading's picture

Last night's review of gold

http://wp.me/p2CT0a-4G

My view of the big picture has brightened, but in the short term (the next week or two) weakness is reasonable to expect from a cycles standpoint.

Groaner's picture

The cap is in..

as Gandolf would say.. $1700 .. you will not PASS!

SilverTree's picture

I expect the lift off to be on aprox. 16th, 17th.

tw_graph.php?lang=0&kelley=1&watkins=1&y

Timewave Zero Bitchez!

¤'s picture

Pigatha, Bouncing Calvin etc. / Tuesday Afternoon

Mr.Grey's picture

Predictions

I thought there was a standing prediction that "no good deed would go unpunished"smiley

Lumpy's picture

Maybe they are in no danger of getting hurt.

They may be acting on behalf of the FED using their/our money to control the price of PM's to keep the illusion of a healthy system alive.

If profit isn't a concern, or appearing idiotic, why not just keep up the price suppression for years more with unlimited FED money.

They play by their own rules. 

ferretflat's picture

I did it.

I cashed out some of my IRA money and bought ASEs, some 90%, circulated silver dollars, and a little gold.

No worries!

balz's picture

Gap

The silver gap is only because the chart does not show yesterday's action.

SIlverbee's picture

Is it not just how gamblers operate

If the losses get to big, up the stake to try to recoup the losses. Think Nick Leeson once you bust big, even bigger ain't gonna make any difference! (EE more shorts)

Just A Regular Guy's picture

Question regarding expanding the money supply

Hi guys/gals,

I had a thought regarding this as I was dozing off the other day. If you expand the money supply we know this is inflationary/monetary debasement. I was wondering, if banks in a country default or say a government defaults on it's loans, does this default therefore contract the money supply? So in THEORY (I'm most defiantly NOT saying this is true in practice) if you blew up fiat/digital fiat via default could you simply counter-balance this with more money printing?????

I know this is a really stupid idea, but i'm not a finance guy or a business guy. I do molecules...... Any insight would be great.

Peace.

Dr Jerome's picture

ferretflat

Cashout into AG!  ... How does it feel?

Even though metals are flat today after the gap up, I love this divergence from the major indices.

S&P down

AG flat -- That's what I am talking about.

Silver Monkey's picture

Turd are you going to sell your Dec $35 Silver calls?

And wait for the waterfall to get back in?  Or just ride this puppy out?

Patriot Family's picture

Visited LCS During my trip to Seattle...

Had an interview in Seattle.  Fantastic company, really good people, fantastic city.

While there I passed by an LCS in Belleview.  I pulled over, walked in, and immediately noticed almost everyone in the shop was there to sell silver and gold.  Saw a 10 oz sheet of NWT Stagecoach Silver "Get Out Of Dodge" divisible 1 oz bars for sale, got them for about $1.50 over spot.  Lots of other silver for sale, mostly Canadian and generic rounds.  All for $1.50 over spot.  Out of stock on ASEs.  Some AGEs for sale at $65 over spot.  They had quite a bit of common  date 90% silver US coins available and if I get the job and transfer to the NW corner of the country I'll go back in and buy a few rolls.

I had to leave to find an ATM since they didn't take credit or debit cards for bullion purchases.  Cash only.  Anyway, in the time that I left and came back, more visitors arrived at the shop.  Again, almost all were selling.  Only one grizzled old mountain man type was buying, and he commented that people should be buying hand over fist if they knew what was coming with the US dollar.

ferretflat's picture

Dr.J

Feels good.  I will probably liquidate most of my paper investments by the end of the year and leave my IRA dedicated to mining and oil stocks.  I will keep on stacking until the end of fiat!

Istack's picture

@pat fam

were you that mountain man?

Turd Ferguson's picture

Nope

MODERATOR

At $35, I currently plan to sell 2X my current Dec $40 and create a spread vs my 35.

I intend to use the proceeds from creating the spread to buy even more, out-of-the money Dec12 and Mar13 calls.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Well, this is a BAD IDEA

MODERATOR

And will only serve to piss off the Russkis ahead of a long, cold winter.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/eu-launches-antirust-case-against-natural-gas-giant-gazpromia

Pining 4 the Fjords's picture

Groaner re: You shall not pass

The EE may have Gandalf stationed at 32.25, but we have Obiwan Ferguson. 

We win.

145Bluesman's picture

@ sanbox

Dam ,,,,LOL really,,I really LOL'd

Nature calls and you have to answer.

@Mr Fix. One of these day's I will hit the "First" Lottery.

Do I get a jacket or a secret handshake or something?

croc987's picture

@Patriot Family--sad commentary

How sad the American sheeple are selling what little gold and silver they have. There is a reason why newspapers have full page ads for metal dealers.  That is why I don't think we will ever see confiscation--not enough to confiscate!  I would bet that the amounts held by us, the PM bugs, are insignificant in the overall scheme of things, as there are only a few thousand of us.  

Bollocks's picture

Indeed.

maravich44's picture

pretty pictures

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