Come Tuesday

Summer's almost over. I hope you're enjoying your weekend but get ready. Come Tuesday, it's game on.

We stand at the edge. Prices have broken out but Cartel resistance is steep. The latest CoT shows their malicious intent. In gold, The Cartel net short position grew by over 32,000 contracts last week with the gross short position growing by over 10%! A huge, desperate move which has brought The Cartel net short position to its "worst" level since 2/28/12. Yikes! In fact, over the 8/14/12 - 8/28/12 time period, the price of paper gold rallied $68 and the total Gold Cartel net short position grew by 59,000 contracts. It looks like someone would very much prefer that gold not rise much further.

Though the Cartel selling in silver is just as prevalent, it is of a different stripe. For the reporting week, to supply the paper necessary to keep price in check, instead of adding shorts The Silver Cartel dumped longs. Of course the question is: Why? Are they selling into strength and booking profits? I suppose. But are they also remiss to add new shorts? Of course, it's impossible to say. What is possible to say though is that the CoT situation has only "deteriorated" in the days since, particularly Friday.

Finally, it is curious to see so much of the fresh shorting and selling that is coming from the smaller banks. Uncle Ted calls these banks the "raptors". The raptors treat the paper markets as their virtual jungle where they prey upon the specs by collusively following the moves of the bigger banks. In gold, the selling last week was almost evenly split between the big banks and the smaller banks. In silver, though, 90% of the selling came from the smaller banks, not JPM. Again, why? Is this just a one-week trend?

So next week is set up for some significant volatility.

  • All market participants are back from holiday.
  • The charts are undeniably bullish, meaning spec money should continue to roll in.
  • Prices are reaching into areas where I would expect some major Cartel short selling/resistance, i.e. $1725 and $33
  • After a week of rising prices, we get the August BLSBS on Friday. It's hard to imagine anything but a negative print being met with a major attempt to rig prices lower.

For now, here's where we sit.

And do you recall this chart from last week? Notice that gold spent 17 weeks above the range in 2011 and now it has completed 17 weeks below the range in 2012. Next week, does gold finally move back within the range?

Silver is at a similar crossroads.

So, get ready for a crazy and wild week. Though I certainly wouldn't fault a trader for booking a few profits, everyone else just needs to prepare for some volatility. Prices are truly headed much, much higher but not without the usual shenanigans.

See you Tuesday.

TF

454 Comments

Mr. Fix's picture

First Again!!!

This makes my day, in a major way!

Happy days are coming soon,

our metals are finally, finally breaking out!

Got my popcorn, here to enjoy the show.

It's going be nice to be on the right side of this trade.

Best wishes to everyone, have a nice day.

Hillsie's picture

Número deux

Sweet work.

ReachWest's picture

Tiga?

Tiga -  Trois - Drei - Three ---- THURD!

Ready to go come Monday (or Tuesday) - I got my hush-puppies on!

Bollocks's picture

thurd

Thurd!

edit: bollocks!

Dagney Taggart's picture

I think the healthiest thing right now

is for gold to retest the breakout at 1630 and hold it for a week.

Mr. Fix's picture

Dag,

Yes, that would be healthy,

but I don't care about health anymore,

I just want the wildest most spectacular explosion in the price imaginable, and

in fact, an unimaginably big fat explosion in price.

It's been too long,

although, you're probably right

will just sit through another pullback.

Dagney Taggart's picture

@Fix

We would get a big fat explosion followed by a bigger implosion. We need to give an entry point to the idiot widow and trust fund baby crowd in the Hamptons returning from summer.

Mr. Fix's picture

@ Dag,

Just dreaming...............

Eric Original's picture

Doomsday Preppers marathon on

Doomsday Preppers marathon on NatGeo today.

top ten!

Paladex's picture

Federal Debt priced in gold

Trading in the metals markets is like playing  chess against a grand master ... Any move you make winds up being the wrong one. You might think that higher prices are a blow against TPTB, but look at it another way: over the last decade, the dollar has lost so much value vs. gold that the U.S. debt - measured in gold - is actually back to 1960s levels. Sir Charles at pricedingold.com created a great chart that illustrates this.

Impressive, no?

145Bluesman's picture

WTF ?

To the guy's that like to be first.

I don't understand why that is such an accomplishment.

Do you guy's sit at your computer and constantly refresh the page in the hopes you will catch the new recent blog entry?

And without even reading the presentation you rush to submit the initial post And exclaim "first"?

To me there is something wrong with that picture.

No offense to you if you have some emotional or mental difficulties in life, as mental illness is not a joke. Again no offense to you's.

Mr. Fix's picture

@ 145Bluesman

None taken.

Stick around, 

You'll get used to it.

¤'s picture

145Bluesman

That was kind of toolish, lighten up maybe. Geez.

Roark's picture

@145Bluesman

Ritualized conduct that is simply odd, without being offensive, isnt a mental illness. Pointing fingers at mild non-conformists however, might be. :)

BTW: 14th!!!!

Short Stack's picture

@Bluesman

It's just an ego thing.  No worries.

Short Stack's picture

Hey Dag,

I'd appreciate a little back-tracking on the prices so I can afford to buy even more too.

But hey, if it's to be, it's to be.   If it's not to be, smiley and just go with it.  And maybe tell the boss you want to be paid in metals from now on.

foxenburg's picture

@145Bluesman

Why does anyone want to be first? At anything. It's just a small personal challenge that some of us get amusement from. Why run a road race just to be first? What's the point? It seems, friend Bluesman, that you are the one with the problem as you let in annoy you. Which is even sillier than wanting to be first. Lighten up, and chuckle at out childishness. No offence, etc.

Mr. Fix's picture

@ DrkPurpleHaze

Dear Dark Purple Haze,

over the course of the past few weeks,

I have clicked on many of the links that you have posted here,

and have spent many joyful hours both reading useful and educational material,

and spending hours being educated and entertained on YouTube,

you seem to have a knack of knowing the answers to my questions before I ask them.

I just thought I would take a chance to thank you for your contributions to this site,

you have been become a very valuable resource for me.

foggyroad's picture

Trust

Gallup reported last month,(edit (April 2012)..) that – for the second year in a row – Americans said that gold is the safest long-term investment.   This  shows that Americans don’t trust the government.  Specifically, as Time Magazine points out:

Traditionally, gold has been a store of value when citizens do not trust their government politically or economically.

read more..
Bollocks's picture

@145Bluesman

I am pleased to announce that I'm mentally ill.

Thank god for that. I wouldn't want to be like "normal" people surprise.

145Bluesman's picture

thanks for the clarrity

Hey no reason for the personal attacks. Just asking the question. Didn't intent to damage pride or invoke hurt feelings. Like I said mental illness is a serious issue. sheesh.

So I get 1) It's a site ritual

And 2 Its about ego.

And DPH say's my question is "toolish"

Apparently refreshing the page constantly in the hopes of securing the coveted First is acceptable.

I am not annoyed by the described activity, just wondering about the mindset of the demographic.

It's all good.

Well thanks for clearing up the question.

ReachWest's picture

@ 145Bluesman

Proclaiming 1st, 2nd, 3rd etc is like a long honored (albeit silly and meaningless) tradition in Turdville. [Think of it like a secret handshake amongst Turdites.]

Gotta smile, at something - there sure ain't much in the ponzi economy or markets to grin at.

Edit to Add: And no - I don't sit around refreshing any pages in hopes of getting one of the top positions - just lucky enough to happen upon an open spot every once in a while.

¤'s picture

Fix / Blue

@ Fix...thanx, humbling stuff.

@Blue..disingenuous stuff. Have a nice day.

RaRaRasputin's picture

What inflation?

sarc on < Seems that the G20 can't ignore the deflation that abounds?! > sarc off

Price of essentials rises by 10 per cent

The G20 is under growing pressure to call an emergency food summit after the price of essentials jumped by ten per cent on average in July.

The World Bank report also warned that prices could continue to rise this year. "Negative factors – such as exporters pursuing panic policies, a severe El Nino, disappointing Southern hemisphere crops or strong rises in energy prices – could cause significant further grain price hikes," the report said.

The G20 said this week that it would check the US Department of Agriculture's updated crop forecast – due on 12 September – before deciding whether to call an emergency meeting.

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/price-of-essentials-rises-by-10-per-cent-8100066.html

145Bluesman's picture

I vow to now constantly

I vow to now constantly refresh the page so as to be one of the elete turdistans who proclaim to hold the coveted FIRST.

It's like a bar i once visited in Mexico. I asked the question "why do the guy's, one at a time, take turns going into the back room with the fat ugly lady with a big cold sore on her lip".

The little Mexican dude grinned and through his three rotten teeth and proclaimed. "Its tradition gringo"

refresh

RaRaRasputin's picture

Coincidence??

Hmm - rising food inflation article today and then this article from yesterday  .......

Barclays makes £500m betting on food crisis

Barclays has made as much as half a billion pounds in two years from speculating on food staples such as wheat and soya, prompting allegations that banks are profiting handsomely from the global food crisis.

Barclays is the UK bank with the greatest involvement in food commodity trading and is one of the three biggest global players, along with the US banking giants Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, research from the World Development Movement points out.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/barclays-makes-500m-betting-on-food-crisis-8100011.html

 

Urban Roman's picture

Twenty-Sev3nth!!!1!11

So, I'm thinking of burning the dry powder in my checking account on Tuesday, since I have obviously missed the bottom a while back there...

Will there be a little dip some time this week?

Or is this the long-anticipated rocket ride to the moon?

And, what to get? ASEs, generic rounds (I like the ones with the Liberty bell), Libtards, Philharmonics? Browse the ebay lists? Or maybe a 100-Oz doorstop?

145Bluesman's picture

@DPH

@Blue..disingenuous stuff. Have a nice day."

Dude I just asked a question, and you attack me twice. I have heard the same question posed here many times since day one.

Put me on ignore if you can't handle it. But I will continue to read your stuff with interest.

Short Stack's picture

Someone post earlier about Doomsday Preppers/Nat Geo ch.

Some duffus on the Preppers said he wouldn't give you a can of beans for an ounce of gold.

That he wouldn't know the difference between 24k. and 14k.  Whether it was solid gold or gold plated.

Amazing to me that some people are interested in learning how to farm, raise animals, etc.  Yet only show interest in how to economically barter a chicken for a bag of spuds.

In the prepper  game, it's not what you know, but what you should know but don't bother to learn that's going to be your undoing.

Dagney Taggart's picture

OK

Bluesman has been told the same thing by 5 (oops 4) different people. It's time to move on.

Edit: Why does this pack phenomena happen? What's the saying? Opinions are like assholes, everybody has one. It you aren't saying something new, please don't say it.

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