One More Day

Well, it's Thursday. This can only mean two things: 1) Just one more day until The JacksonHoleDown and 2) College football season begins tonight!

For all intents and purposes, here's the only thing that seems to matter right now:

8/31/12 Speech--Chairman Ben S. Bernank
Monetary Policy Since the Crisis
At the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming
10 a.m. EDT

I suppose I could wax philosophic and even poetic about momo algos and Cartel capping but what would be the point? For today, I'm confident that we will simply trade back and forth between 30.60 and 30.80 in silver and 1660 and 1670 in gold. <yawn>

Look, I don't have a crystal ball for Fed-speak. The only person who knows what The Bernank will mutter tomorrow is The Bernank, himself. (Well, and maybe his butt-boy, Hilsenrath.) However, I can tell you this:

  • The fundamentals for the metals are overwhelmingly positive
  • The charts look poised for another leg higher

Might I be wrong? Of course. However, I'm confident that any Cartel-inspired Fed gaming tomorrow will be met with considerable bids for physical metal at discounted prices. This unceasing physical demand will continue to provide a floor for paper price and, consequently, any dip tomorrow must be bought.

That said, they may not be a dip to buy. Look at these charts. First, here are the daily charts showing that, after the runup last week, prices are simply consolidating in the zone where you would expect them to:

But now look at these 4-hour charts that include the 4-hour Relative Strength Indices. Remember, RSI is simply a measurement that allows you to assess the degree to which a market may be "overbought" or "oversold", in the short-term. The sideways action this week, though enfeebling and frustrating, allowed us the time to work off some RSIs that had worked well into the short-term overbought area. Note that, on the charts below, the RSIs have now retrenched back to the levels last seen before the big blastoff two weeks ago. This is a very positive sign that the markets are poised to move higher again and I would expect that move to begin very soon.

Have a great day!

TF

369 Comments

sevin's picture

College Football

The countdown has begun!

Oh yeah. and First

Dobocop's picture

Someone has to be Second ;-)

Waited long enough

Edit. Apparently just a bit to long, had to login and remember password first.

Lapp Nils's picture

First

First from Sweden!!

SIlverbee's picture

could I be thurd?

Or maybe I am trumped.

SilverTree's picture

HOLD ON TIGHT!

holdontightanddontletgo.png

TitanAe's picture

No Way !!

Will Obama allow QE3 before the election !

Be Prepared's picture

My Horizon is not this Summer....

As many have said, Turd has consistently shown himself to be a man of integrity and genuinely tries to present and share his thoughts and ideas for the benefit of us all.  This statement has nothing to do with being a fan or not.... or a Turdite or not.... it has everything to do with appreciating the efforts of a man trying to bring a community together for the betterment of us all.  I certainly believe he has achieved that hands down with our help and support.  I think it's fine to question and have doubts, but we need to try to remember that we need to engage each other with respect and, certainly, our host deserves that and more.   The world is crappy enough and it will unravel in do time, so we can try to provide a respite here for each other... here in Turdville... so that we can learn, explore and share with each other in a way that focuses on building each other...

My time horizon for what I'm doing has nothing to do with this summer because my own convictions and beliefs no longer place a fiat value on PMs.  I still check the price, but it's more of a barometer than a valuation.  It's important to focus on working your plan and try not to take the world so seriously.... it will get crazy enough without us looking to push it down the rabbit hole any faster.

Thanks, Turd, for making Turdville possible... :-)

repost... didn't see the new thread...

Colonel Angus's picture

For the Bernank

"The plumber is clearly smarter than the Ben Bernank"

I love me some cartoon bears making fun of the Fed. Doesn't everybody? Maybe they can give the speech tomorrow. It would probably make a whole helluva lot more sense.

banman17's picture

Morgan Stanley reported on by Jim Willie

Not sure if many of you saw this on Harvey Organ's site last night:

And Jim Willie on the troubles at Morgan Stanley as he talks to Bill Murphy:
 

JIM WILLIE…
 
 

THE M.S. SHOCK WAVES ARE BEING HEARD FROM INTERNAL WALL STREET SOURCES
my inside guy, the friend of a MS fund manager appears to be growing in validity and intensity
Morgan Stanley is the next failure
Rick Wiles of TruNews is a Hat Trick Letter subscriber and sharp fellow
he has his own contacts spread out over the financial community
Morgan Stanley is going to the slaughterhouse, not the altar
the part these guys miss is that MS has perhaps a few hundred thousand stock brokerage accounts
MS merged with Dean Witter and Smith Barney to become the premier stock house
I am guessing that MS has 200k stock accounts, maybe 300k or more
THE MORGAN STANLEY FAILURE MIGHT BE THE FIRST THEFT OF STOCK ACCOUNTS
THE JUMP MIGHT OCCUR FROM FUTURES BROKERAGE TO STOCK BROKERAGE
MFGLOBAL ==>> PFG-BEST ==>> MORGAN STANLEY
imagine the hue and cry from the ignorant sheeple masses who call us conspiracy nutballs
when their stock accounts and IRAs vaporize in re-hypothecation made legal
feel free to post this, Bill
you probably have your own added info
just my 8 cents, a little more than 2
/ jim

Ferd Torgerson's picture

Turd Only Needs to Change One Thing - reposted from last thread

I gladly signed up for TFMR the first day it became official last June (couldn't figure out how to log on to the old blog site).  Since then, I've read Turd's offerings and Fed the Turd when I could.

I have never expected perfection  from Turd in his projections.  He offers us his highly-educated guesses as to what's in the future and we can choose to believe or disbelieve.  I've never thought of Turd as a genius when his predictions held true or as a charlatan when they missed the mark.  We all come here for just another source of input in deciding what to make of this crazy situation we find ourselves in.

To expect Turd to reveal his sources is asking that he compromise his future ability to offer his insights - whatever value we might put on them.  I'm convinced by all I read here and elsewhere that PM's are going higher.  How much higher and in what timeframe no one knows.

The only thing I'd do differently, were I Turd, would be to hire a Special Duty Moderator to come in and consult with posters who make unreasonable demands.

I understand this guy may be looking for a new gig.

¤'s picture

Just because...

...why not?

Thanks for the update TF...I hope you realize that 99% of the site  supports/appreciates your efforts all the time. We live in strange and stressful times for sure and it's times like these that will fortify and harden our collective resolve going forward. 

Cleburne61's picture

Turd I want to apologize...

The other day I wrote a simple note asking if you thought this move was still the HEH or a fake-out....I don't think you took it as anything more than it was meant, and you responded, and for that I thank you.

But, it seems my innocent question opened the floodgates last night for what became a shocking display of demands, insults, and arrogance directed towards you.  I wasn't trying to start something, I was just curious is all.

I also later had severe hat tip regrets.  Have y'all ever felt that?  You ever experienced "Hat Tip Remorse"?  When you weren't finished reading something that you tipped, but by the end, you wished you'd withheld your tip until you'd finished?  Or you'd tipped something, but after thinking about it for a few minutes...you wished you could get it back?  That was me.

Turd, I know what it's like to keep a promise of secrecy to a friend, especially over something very discrete.  I daresay most of us here wouldn't begrudge you that.  So, I'm sorry if I was the stone that got the avalanche going.

Planters's picture

a lil pregame drop

Just like college football tailgating looks like the Cartels are getting in a little pregame tailgating drop, 60 cents just got shaved off in 20min or less.

Wait for the big kick off - or of dick kick off tomorrow.

Wallace Hartley's picture

Silver Lease Rates

Lease rates continue to leak lower (-0.33)...the EE has increased their short contracts...me thinks they are setting up another raid fairly soon...tread cautiously my friends.

Dr Jerome's picture

Looks like a good day for popcorn

What's up (and down) with metals today?

1770 contracts traded in one minute to take us from 30.70 down through resistance to 30.40. No manipulation here... keep moving.

In fact, we haven't seen any massive takedowns in a long time--just these 30-50 cent slapdowns, almost nightly, regularly. they add up, but it is harder to defend the manipulation thesis.

Tomorrow should be very interesting

thisismynewname's picture

Damn Waterfalls

They're getting my lottery tickets all wet!

abguy4's picture

To my frustrated fellow troops

To my frustrated fellow troops;

Stop the frkn whining, do NOT even go there~!

Please recognize that your frustration is EXACTLY what TPTB are striving for~~!!

Sorry to be so direct, but, we are at war here.

The war , as much as ANYTHING

is a war first and FOREMOST for your consciousness.

Do not despair - or they win.

HOLD your positions guys~!

pforth's picture

Waterfall

I was almost starting to miss them.  NOT.  Waterfalls like this show the cartel remains in control of things.  Damn.

Beastly Stack's picture

@NO QE

Anyone questioning no QE is an absolute moron at this point.Look at these addicted markets,they need their fix,CANNOT FUNCTION without it.You really think Bernanke is going to disappoint and Obama is going to watch the equities implode.

COME ON MAN!

The markets have these guys playing PUPPET!

rpboxster's picture

Direct Registration System - help

My post got buried in the middle of all the banter on the last thread.  All the MS implosion talk, and rehypothecation, etc. has me very interested in holding my "paper" in my name via the Direct Registration System rather than street name.  I like ETFs for my stock/bond holdings.  The problem is finding ETFs that are DRS eligible.  Anybody come across a list of DRS eligible ETFs or know whether any of the mainstream index ETFs are DRS eligible?  The DRS website is a disaster, and none of the fund info on brokerage sites informs whether an issue is DRS eligible.  Help me Turdville, you're my only hope.

abguy4's picture

There's not a dime's worth of difference

An almost totally forgotten assassination attempt;
 
 
"There's not a dime's worth of difference between the Republicans and the Democrats"
George Wallace, 1968
 

Why is it that telling the truth, will get you shot , in this country ??

Every time.

Just asking.......................................

Big Buffalo's picture

Silver $30.20

Let's see how silver reacts at $30.20. Support?

HeNateMe's picture

Thank You Jesus!

Thank Buddha for this new thread.  A picture I took to brighten your day:

HeNateMe

SilverTree's picture

Looks like a golf course in

Looks like a golf course in Hawaii.

HeNateMe's picture

@SilverTree

Correct!  More specifically on Maui.  Kaanapali Beach area.

Just A Regular Guy's picture

Paper Raid

Wow nice looking charts into the London close. I'm 55%-45% that we'll see some announcement RE:QE tomorrow.

Is this yet another indicator? In this bizzaro world, the miners/Au/Ag get smashed before politico-stuff  that is bullish for them is announced. I'm only relatively new to the trading game, however, I have seen this happen on stocks a lot related to the PMs and from what I have gleaned around here I have seen it in the charts before announcements from central-bankers before.

As I said i'm 55-60% there will be stimulus announced tomorrow. Why? Remember in the race to the bottom, if the EU prints, and Draghi has basically said a month or so ago they are going to buy bonds, then the US prints. It seems that the EU is going to print, the US is just going to get in about a week or two early.

Peace guys.

SilverTree's picture

@henateme

Nice!

I was stationed in Pearl Harbor on a Submarine.cheeky

ivars's picture

A story

Bought 2000 Oz XAG at 30,78.

 

Bought 2000 Oz XAG at 30,78. Time to move.

Oops , ,may be half an hour

Oops , ,may be half an hour early.. what happened to EUR?

Ah, clear. Knee jerk reaction.

IT will be back. Too fast drop.

Silver_investor's picture

What happened?

Was there some headline at 10:30 that caused the cartel to slam the metals? Man, this crap is really getting old. After waiting patiently for over a year, I was just starting to feel relieved when gold and silver started making some gains recently. I even made a large purchase last week thinking that the next round of easing is imminent which would start the next leg up. I think I need to take a 12-month vacation to the middle of nowhere--some place so remote that the internet isn't accessible.   

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