Feeling Good, Louis!
OK, now that we've got that FOMC nonsense out of the way, the rallies can continue. How much farther and how fast? Those are the questions.
In case you missed it, the FOMC minutes were QE-bullish. Essentially, The Fed stands ready for more "accommodation" if the economy fails to improve "substantially". You and I know that this is all bullshit, anyway, as The Fed is nearly out of ammo for additional Operation Twist measures and rates must be kept low permanently in order to sustain/protect The Great Ponzi. Again, review this if necessary: http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4112/murmurs-10-year-note. However, nearly everyone should review that post because the CoT comments contained therein are also important for this current thread.
Anyway, from RanSquawk at ZH, here are three of the main headlines:
FOMC says many FOMC members supported extending the Fed late 2014 interest rate guidance, but agreed to defer decision to September meeting
FOMC says many FOMC members favored easing soon if no sustained growth pickup
FOMC says many FOMC participants saw new QE as bolstering US recovery
As you can see, these headlines speak for themselves. More QE is on the way, it's simply a matter of time. The only exception would be renewed, vigorous "growth". Does anyone rally see that happening anytime soon??
So where do we go from here? After bottoming in May and June, the metals are currently completing a 100-day consolidation and base. From here, we will rally back to the old all-time highs and beyond. Not that there won't be speedbumps and corrections along the way, there will be. However, prices are now headed higher.
Particularly silver. As mentioned in my CoT comments last week, it appears that the smaller "hyenas" are preparing to battle The Big Dog for silver supremacy. The hyenas correctly sense weakness and smell blood. The fat and lazy Big Dog continues on with business as usual, not knowing yet that it has been mortally wounded. As hyena confidence grows, they will up the pressure by forcing price higher and higher.
So here are your updated charts. At 1654, gold has clearly broken through the top end of its range and now looks to head toward its next battle, near 1675.
Silver is still battling to crawl above $30 but it is getting very close. With the FOMC behind us, I expect the hyenas to rage forward tomorrow and press their advantage. This should take silver to and through $30 and serve to draw in some momentum-chasing spec money to aid in the fight.
And here are two, additional charts for perspective:
I've mentioned how interesting last week's CoT was, well this week's should be a doozy, too. For the reporting week, gold rose every day, for a total of just over $40, and, prior to yesterday, total OI was down for the week. Again, prior to yesterday. I emphasize this because yesterday, while gold rose $20, total OI shot up by 12,000 contracts (over 3%!). This makes gold CoT data interesting because, clearly, some HOT money returned to gold yesterday in anticipation of today's breakout. But just who are these buyers? Cartel banks or specs? We'll get some answers on Friday.
The silver CoT will be even more interesting. After the big runup in the "hyena" long position last week, I've been looking forward all week to Friday's report. But now, consider this: For the reporting week, silver was UP $1.68 (6%!) but total OI fell by 1200 contracts. Clearly, to get a 6% move on declining OI, you've got quite a bit of short-covering going on. But, by whom? The SpecShortSheep? The Big Dog? Both? And how many contracts did the hyenas add at the same time? The CoT will shed some light on these questions and I can't wait to see it on Friday.
In random order, here's some stuff for you to read. First, this from Mark Grant via ZH: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gathering-storm
Next, this little ditty that some have posted already into the comments of the previous thread: http://www.mineweb.co.za/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page32?oid=157430&sn=Detail&pid=102055
Here are your impending war and destruction updates for today: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/israels-iran-strike-routes & http://www.debka.com/article/22293/Iranian-leaders-in-Israel’s-sights-after-calling-for-its-destruction & http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/9490878/Irans-supreme-leader-orders-fresh-terror-attacks-on-West.html & http://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-begins-construction-of-300-million-anti-aircraft-missile-base/
And here's a fun new piece from Mike Krieger where he discusses the greatness of Bitcoin: http://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2012/08/22/bitcoin-a-way-to-fight-back-against-the-financial-terrorists/
Lastly, I need your help with something. I spoke with Andrew Maguire earlier today. He and his business partner Paul seem to really like the idea of an "OptionsTrades" service. Her are some random thoughts on the matter:
- I'm quite uneasy at recommending options trading to anyone given the inherent risks involved and my oft-stated concerns for the viability of the current "system". After the MFG and PFG debacles, everyone should be wary of holding cash, or anything else for that matter, within the confines of a customer account. That said, I could be wrong. That Ann Barnhart gal could be wrong, too. Maybe MFG and PFG are simply one-offs and everything is fine. I recognize, too, that there are still literally thousands of people worldwide who are still actively trading. Therefore, I'm content to go forward but under the banner of "proceed at your own considerable risk".
- I've been trading options for over 25 years now. In my "career", I've always been forced to enter The Den of Thieves armed with nothing but my own experience, wisdom and charts. To think that I could enter again but, this time, have the experience of Andrew Maguire to guide me?...well that is pretty compelling.
- After 25 years, I do at least have some idea of what I'm doing. All trades established by Andy and I will only be placed if we are in agreement that the trade makes sense. This clearly doesn't guarantee success but I'd like to think it increases our chances a bit.
- It's not going to be cheap but it shouldn't be. First of all, we don't want totally inexperienced traders taking a stab at it simply because the subscription is just $20/month. Additionally, at $250/month, the service would be a bargain. Subscribers would need to maintain an account balance of $15,000-25,000 so we're only talking about a 1-2% monthly vig.
- For those that don't trade futures options but do trade equity options, we'll try to offer an alternative ETF option play whenever possible. For example, a Dec12 gold call trade might be matched with a DecGLD call.
So here's what I need you to do. If you think this sounds interesting and you think you'd be willing to give it a go, please hat tip the first comment below. Since currently only TFMR members can hat tip, any lurker who would like to indicate interest can send me a quick email at tfmetalsreport at gmail dot com. If enough folks show an interest, we'll likely go ahead and set up the system. Thanks in advance for your help.
As I head out, I see we're still looking good at $1655 and $29.90. Can't wait to see what tomorrow brings!