Hot and Explosive?

Yes, the past 24 hours have indeed been hot and explosive. Is it THE hot and explosive? Maybe.

As you know, I've been waiting for a "hot, explosive and historic" rally to begin. I'm sure most everyone is wondering whether or not this is the beginning of that move. In all honesty, I can only say "maybe". Let's talk about another option, first.

As you know, The Fed last met for an OMC meeting three weeks ago. At the conclusion of the meeting, the "Fedlines" were released, giving us all some idea of the things The Goon Squad discussed between steak dinners and trips to Cheetahs. Tomorrow, after a 3-week delay, we get the release of the official minutes of the meeting. As you also know, we have already had five or six occasions in 2012 where prices ran up ahead of a Fed/Bernank announcement, only to be summarily beaten back immediately following said Fedlines/press conference. This could be just another occurrence of the SpecSheep being led to the shearing barn. Could. It also might not be.

As we discussed last Friday and over the weekend, the CoT last week was very, very interesting. At 47,797, the gross commercial long position in silver is the highest I ever recall seeing it. Additionally, Uncle Ted suspected that the 4,752 increase in the gross commercial short position came almost entirely from JPM. From there, I began to wonder if we were about to witness a "civil war" in silver.

I used an analogy with Mister Hyde this morning that I think I'll use again here. Currently, the commercials in silver act collusively to crush the specs. In a way, this is similar to a pack of hyenas on the Serengeti. The pack works together to accomplish the kills but there is usually a leader, a bigger male dog that leads the pack. This is all well and good until and unless the the leader ages, becomes weaker and distracted, and becomes vulnerable. At that point, members of the pack may begin to collude to oust the leader. The remainder of the pack may begin to act collusively against the leader and, when the day comes that their confidence rises to the point where they are ready to attack, the pack turns on the leader for their own selfish, potential gain.

So, the question is: Is the silver "leader" vulnerable? Has "the pack" begun to sense the leader's vulnerability? Does the pack know something that you and I don't about the leader's health and viability and, sensing this weakness, have they turned upon the leader?

Here's that word again: Maybe. Though I am supremely confident that the metals, particularly silver, are about to charge off into uncharted territory, I cannot be certain that this is happening right now. This is coming, however, and it is coming very soon. Perhaps the leader will survive and even play along? Maybe. In the end, it doesn't mater. Prices are going much, much higher whether they like it or not.

The metals are almost certainly getting some support from crude. As we identified last week, once crude broke out of its latest consolidation spot, it was likely to head toward $98-99, perhaps as soon as late this week. Well, we're already there, all the Iran v Israel grumblings giving things another shove higher this morning. The next short-term top and consolidation looks to come in just below par, near $99 or so. Let's see what happens from there but anyone trading might ring the cash register a little if give the opportunity to take some off near $100.

Finally, our pal Ned was on with Max earlier today and he did an outstanding job of discussing unallocated/allocated and a number of other items. I strongly suggest that you take the time to watch this video. Perhaps an admin could embed it below so that you don't have to leave the site to watch.

http://rt.com/programs/keiser-report/episode-330-max-keiser/

I also traded emails with Ned this morning and he asked me to alert everyone to the falling gold:silver. Ivars has been doing a great job of keeping us up-to-date on this and I hope he'll post another chart of the ratio soon. A drop below 55 would seem to be something for which you should keep a look out.

And one more thing...I am going to begin to actively remove political and other content that is posted to the main threads that doesn't promote the wider discussion. Everyone already knows that O'bomney is guaranteed to win in November so we don't need a daily barrage of left-wing and right-wing propaganda/marketing. If you want to start your own site and publish all of that stuff, go right ahead. (Be prepared, though, as it is way more expensive than you might thinksurprise) This is my site and I decide what stays and what goes, what gets published and what does not. This site is not your personal political propagandizing tool. It is a site that I have built for all of us to discuss the precious metals and our personal preparations for the end of The Great Keynesian Experiment. The "Main Street" thread our primary "front door" and I will not allow personal political agendas to slow or otherwise harm the growth of this site. Any registered Turdite has the ability to begin a forum where he/she can discuss anything on their mind. That person can then invite everyone else to stop by and share their views. This is the way we shall conduct business here moving forward. The American election is less than 90 days away and if we don't correct this now, I fear our site will be destroyed by mindless, partisan infighting.

That is all for now. As I go to publish, I see that the metals are hanging in there. This is good. One step at a time. Today's goal should be to close above $29 in silver and above $1635 in gold. Let's worry about tomorrow tomorrow. Have a fun day.

TF

12:35 pm EDT UPDATE:

On the heels of he very impressive action this week, I am ready to declare that Battle Royale I has now finally been won by the good guys. Any attempts to raid price and dip it lower will now find support at the descending line. The next major battle will now be at Battle Royale II, the line connecting the 4/11, 9/11 and 2/12 peaks. This line currently resides near 30.50, which is the area where we also find the 200-day moving average.

I plan to write up a new post later this afternoon or early evening so please be sure to check back.

TF

155 Comments

Silver Passion's picture

uno

uno

BrentLawrence's picture

2nd?

2nd!

I saw the breakout (finally) and thought there would be an early post!

What really got me was a report of the gold buyers not having any volume because all the gold from the "masses" is drying up! Once the sheeple are out of the market, no where to go but up!

The Watchman's picture

Silver Bulls ARE Beginning Their RUN

It's STARTING...

Air Garcia's picture

couple more bucks yet...

And I'm back in the green for my last few sleeves!
Bring it on..

Gramp's picture

A++ Post TF

Things look to be coming back in focus here a bit. Great write up, thank you.

The Watchman's picture

The current chart reminds me of 2010

ag2010.gif

Physical_only's picture

"All aboard"

All that's missing is a picture of the Polar Express & Tom Hanks' voice over............

wildstylechef's picture

Got my turd hat on!!!!

And I'm riding the wave!

Fulgurite's picture

9th! (seems to be real important...)

Here we go again, gold is up a few bucks on the day and out the woodwork come the "bottom callers," soon be followed by the so manyth rant about "Evil Empires" and "Witches" etc when PM's drop.

Gold and Silver WILL significantly go up if a next round of QE will be announced, and not a day sooner.

Up 10 bucks, down 20 bucks, who cares! This has NOTHING to do with preparing for a systemic collapse, but it's pure day trading/gambling and whipping up a frenzy.

tmosley's picture

I really, really hope I'm

I really, really hope I'm wrong about a total market breakdown in silver (where spot price drops to zero as people abandon the corrupt and bankrupt exchanges).  Even though that path would lead to a higher silver price, it strikes me that it will be more difficult to capitalize on it without a centralized clearing house allowing price discovery.  It would be a simple thing to get ripped off by an unscrupulous or desperate buyer without the efficiencies of a centralized marketplace.

So here's hoping for silver spot at $200+, but I remain in agony at the thought of silver spot at $0, and some people paying $100, and others paying $15000.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Obviously, this is helping, too

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Prize Fighter's picture

What a great thought about

What a great thought about "the pack" dynamic, Turd.  That goes a long way in possibly explaining the confusing COT.  I see that same scenario play out on reality tv like Big Brother or Survivor all the time.  Again, excellent thought!

Webmaster's picture

The silver-bullrun

The silver-bullrun is about to start. We will surely see over 36$ until the end of the year, and 45$ by march next year. The miners will outperform heavily.

Mickey's picture

if I could figure out

how to post a chart I saw at some website, that chart would illustrate a comparison of the Obama and Ryan future debt positions--both grow substantially over the next 8 years.

And both are probably optimistic since based on history budgets and plans do not work out too well from either party.

Consequently, even the best plan from either ticket still calls for more debasement and debt. Therefore, green lite long term on PM.

Here I talk how to make (preserve) money-if the politics is germain to that I'd talk politics.

Both parties are FUBAR. They just switch back in forth between who is in charge of FUBAR.

MisesFan's picture

Cheers Turd!

I salute your solution!

Another contrarian indicator that the bottom is in:

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/gold-silver-copper-heading-lower-elliott-wave-analyst-133319257.html

winemaker's picture

Forgive me for I have sinned

Yesterday I scalped several C-notes when my silver futures buy-stop was triggered during the morning run up (yes, I helped push that line upward in a very small way).

Normally I just stack physical.  I promise to never trade paper silver again. 

Unless another scrumptious opportunity presents itself. cheeky

Roger Godberd's picture

Great stuff Turd

Weekly closing price will be key imho. Agree completely re. Dollar Index is helping.

Just one more trend line to smash through on gold. Fingers crossed for a $1660+ close.

Bollocks's picture

18th!

I have an IQ of 61.

That's practically plankton.

swampman's picture

Silver to zero?

Hi tmosley. What about the dozens of other commodiIes? Are lumber, pork bellies and corn or platinum going to zero or is it just gold and silver?

Istack's picture

I will not start celebrating yet

but i am thinking about icing up the champagne

because its the right thing to do

¤'s picture

Hot and Explosive

A short vid of the Cartel trying to keep their short PM  positions safe and from doing the inevitable....

Thanks for the update TF.  Jackson Hole is looming large right now.

Terp's picture

Officially a TTM Turdite

Well, a few weeks ago I posted that if DEC Gold went above 1700 and/or DEC Soybeans went above 1700 then I would join Turd Talks Metals (TTM).

Even though I got stopped out of my beans on the last correction (thankfully with trailing stops) I see the price is about 1725 – so I am now a proud Gold Member of TTM!

Still have my DEC micro-gold contracts – so bring it on 1700!

(edit: I meant NOV Soybeans)

Orange's picture

Silver pricing

Anybody notice that the price of silver seems to be priced lower on CNBS than these real time charts.

http://pennystockjournal.blogspot.ca/p/silver.html

or

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilverw.html

CNBS showed 29.29 when the others showed 29.36 and 29.37 respectively.

I know there is a slight delay, perhaps 5 seconds for CNBS but checking the charts, it would not account for the difference.

ReachWest's picture

Great Analogy

Thanks Turd. Great analogy re the pack of Serengeti hyenas.

Perhaps, the Silver worm has turned. Time to move prepping into final high gear.

Larry's picture

Silver lord of the flies?

Could the hubris filled, Dubious Dapper Dimon be losing the pack of jackals? No more Dapper? Maybe he'll revert back to his Diminutive Dimon status after the competing alphas take him out. I have a theory that this was the plan for him for quite a while now. Give the little Beta dog some easy meat, let him run ahead of the pack. Watch him get too cocky, thinking he's an alpha while getting too greedy, thinking he's politically untouchable and allow him to get way over extended... and then let him lead himself and maybe even JPM to financial demise. The little fall guy that caused silver to explode higher than anyone ever imagined.

Or something like that.

¤'s picture

TF said... (WR w/BC)

"And one more thing...I am going to begin to actively remove political and other content that is posted to the main threads that doesn't promote the wider discussion. Everyone already knows that O'bomney is guaranteed to win in November so we don't need a daily barrage of left-wing and right-wing propaganda/marketing. If you want to start your own site and publish all of that stuff, go right ahead. (Be prepared, though, as it is way more expensive than you might thinksurprise) This is my site and I decide what stays and what goes, what gets published and what does not. This site is not your personal political propagandizing tool. It is a site that I have built for all of us to discuss the precious metals and our personal preparations for the end of The Great Keynesian Experiment. The "Main Street" thread our primary "front door" and I will not allow personal political agendas to slow or otherwise harm the growth of this site. Any registered Turdite has the ability to begin a forum where he/she can discuss anything on their mind. That person can then invite everyone else to stop by and share their views. This is the way we shall conduct business here moving forward."

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

A White Room w/Black Curtains @The Watchtower

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/201267#comment-201267

On the heels of what TF just posted I'll reiterate that everyone has a thread where they can quickly go if they're not sure if they're on topic or if a developing conversation starts to get a little 'hot/explosive".... 'White Room/Black Curtains is a quick click away and an outlet for just that reason.

I think it's safe to say you can let it rip over there (within the sites rules of decorum) and have at it. Consider it to be a thread for all of you who don't want to or know how to start a thread or where .

Everyone needs an outlet....The White Room w/Black Curtains is that place maybe and it belongs to all of you if you want to use it enlightened

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/201267#comment-201267

tmosley's picture

Depends on where they are

Depends on where they are traded, and the willingness of market players to continue to participate in less manipulated markets given truly massive market manipulation in other sectors.

Spot price going to zero does NOT mean that silver will be worthless.  It means that the market is broken, and transactions will have to move off market, which will expose a lot of people to a lot of potential for fraud.  It also means that a lot of paper instruments that are based off of spot prices will become worthless (I'm looking at you, SLV).

exiledbear's picture

Yup capped at 1%

For a $16 move. They're not getting overrun yet, I wouldn't get too excited just yet. They will get overrun.

Nana's picture

Hot Hot Hot

Turd Ferguson's picture

Maybe the SEC...

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